Service Plays Friday 5/2/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.
Do not post any copy written info from the following services.

***Please do not post Twitter plays or forum member plays in this thread.***

Advertise with the Rx - do not post
Al Mcmordie
Allan Eastman
Doc's Sports Services
Jim Feist
Ocal Sports
Robert Ferringo
Sports Money Profit System
Strike Point Sports
Vegas Sports Informer
Vegas Winning Crew


Do not post write-ups
AJ Apollo
Alex Smart
@ntonwins
Apple Handicappers
ASA, ASA Inc’s or American Sports Analysts
ATS Consultants
ATSadv ice.com
Ben Lewis
Brandon Lang's Crew
Bruce Marshall
Chris Jordan's Crew
Dave Cokin
Dennis Hill
Dennis Macklin
Dr. Bob Sports
Dr. guru sports
EZ Winners
Fairway Jay
Fred Wallin
Gametimereport
Greg DiPalma
Hittingpaydirt
JB Sports
Jim Avery
Jim Kruger
Jorge Gonzalez
Ken Jenkins
Killersportslive
Larry Ness
Lenny Delgenio
LT Profits
Lucky Lester
Madduxsports
Marc Lawrence/Playbook
Matt Fargo
Mike Lineback
Mike Rose
Pacific (Pac Star) Sports
PayneInsider
Paul Stone
Peter Gold at VI
Pick Nation Crew
PlusLineSports
Pointwise Sports
PowerPlay Wins
Preferred Picks
Pregame
Pro Sports Info
Red Zone Sports
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
Rocky Atkinson
Ron Raymond
Ross Benjamin
Sal Bansa/sportspicks1019
Scott Spreitzer
Sixth Sense Sports
Sports Memo Crew
Steve Merril SportsAlatex Sports
Stevo Design Inc. All services
Ted Sevransky/Teddy Covers
Tennessee Valley Sports
THELOCKOFTHEDAY
The Prez
The Real Animal
Tony George
Tony Karpinski/3G-Sports
Tom Stryker
Trushel Sports Consulting
Vegasadvisor s.com
Vernon Croy
Winning Points/Sports Reporter
zen_gambler
-------
GL!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

rxb@ll

Looking for a New Book,
Looking for one that accepts U.S. customers
Then your search is over

• 15% Welcome Bonus:
• Join today and get a 15% Welcome bonus on your first deposit - up to $2,500!
  Enter Promo code: JOIN15 when making your first deposit.
• Promotion valid from 03/01/2013 to 12/31/2015

• Gold 10% Reload Bonus:
• • Get a 10% free-play every time you re-load funds into your betting account.
  • Plus we cover your Western Union or Money Gram fees on deposits of $300 or more.
• Promotion valid from 03/08/2007 to 12/31/2015

• Platinum 10% Reload Bonus:
• Get a 10% free-play every time you re-load funds into your betting account.
• Plus we cover your Western Union or Money Gram fees on deposits of $300 or more.
• Promotion valid from 03/01/2014 to 03/01/2016

• TERMS & CONDITIONS
• • Deposit amount $100 or more
  • 3 Time Rollover
  • Bonus will be credited as a Bonus Play
  • Max Bonus $750
• Basic Bonus Play rules apply.
  
  All bonuses are optional. If you do not want to comply with any rollover requirement, don't submit the code in the cashier.
  *Not available for Moneybookers or Neteller deposits.

• Diamond 15% Reload Bonus:
• * Valid for Diamond Level Rewards members only.
  • Get a 15% Bonus Play every time you re-load funds into your betting account.
  • Plus we cover your Western Union or Money Gram fees on deposits of $300 or more.
• Promotion valid from 08/09/2011 to 12/31/2015

• TERMS & CONDITIONS
• • Deposit amount $100 or more
  • 4 Time Rollover
  • Bonus will be credited as a Bonus Play
  • Max Bonus $3000
• Basic Bonus Play rules apply.
  
  All bonuses are optional. If you do not want to comply with any rollover requirement, don't select this offer in the cashier.
  *Not available for Moneybookers or Neteller deposits.

If that's not enough...
Bookmaker offers.
Live betting on televised sporting events.
Wagers graded and player accounts credited in real time.
Easy to use web interface.Desktop, tablet and mobile compatible.

New BetPoints™ Rewards Program
BetPoints™ is our new loyalty program that rewards our members for playing with BookMaker.
No matter how small your bankroll is, you'll earn valuable BetPoints™ every time you bet sports, casino, or poker.
The more you play, the more rewards you will earn.
BetPoints™ accumulate in your BookMaker account until you decide to redeem them in exchange for great rewards such as cash back, gift cards, airline miles,
Bookmaker merchandise, and more!

Bookmaker Mobile
Access your Bookmaker account directly from your iPhone, iTouch and iPad by using your internet browser.
Bet on sports and horses, play blackjack and video poker, redeem your BetPoints, check open wagers and wagering history, with the swipe of your finger.

If you appreciate my work at the Rx and enjoy the site,
Show your support by signing up with Bookmaker today !
Click on the banner below

w-thumbs!^

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Rockets at Trail Blazers

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5, 213.5)

Portland leads series 3-2.

The Houston Rockets staved off elimination and attempt to even the Western Conference first-round series at 3-3 when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday. The Rockets thrived with their season on the line in Game 5 and avoided the late-game breakdowns that hurt them earlier in the series while posting a 108-98 victory on Wednesday. Now the Trail Blazers feel the urgency to wrap up the series at home to keep from having to travel back to Houston for a Game 7.

The Rockets held Portland star LaMarcus Aldridge to eight points while being highly intent on keeping their season going. “I don’t want to go on vacation,” Houston center Dwight Howard told reporters after Game 5. “I want to win. I want to give everything I’ve got. Every night, put my heart into it and sacrifice my body and do whatever I can to help this team win.” The Trail Blazers are trying to halt a streak of six straight first-round exits that dates back to 2000. “We’ve been good at home all year and now we’ll go back home and take care of business,” Aldridge told reporters.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, CSN Houston, KGW (Portland)

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Portland -3.5 with a total of 213, but the total quickly moved half a point to 213.5.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Blazers are 3.5-point favorites in Game 6 - a close-out game for them, and in my opinion a must-win game as I do not see them winning Game 7 in Houston. So far we are seeing over 60 percent of the action come in on the Rockets to cover the spread and 51 percent of the action on them to win outright." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Houston finally slowed down LaMarcus Aldridge in Game 5 as he scored just 8 points on 3 of 12 shooting from the field. But in a critical Game 6 at home, Aldridge will likely bounce back with a strong performance, and if he does, the Rockets will have their work cut out for them in Game 6 in Portland." - Covers' Experts Steve Merril

WHY BET THE ROCKETS: Starting point guard Patrick Beverley was limited in Game 5 due to an illness and Jeremy Lin stepped up to have his best performance of the series. Lin had 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting as he rebounded from a poor Game 4 performance that included a costly turnover late in regulation. “I just tried to be aggressive,” Lin told reporters. “I felt like I needed to be more of a spark for the team. I hadn’t done a great job of that in this series so I just tried to come out as aggressive as I can be.” Howard has been Houston’s best player of the series, posting five straight double-doubles while averaging 26 points, 14.2 rebounds and three blocks.

WHY BET THE TRAIL BLAZERS: Aldridge averaged 35.3 points over the first four games – including outings of 46 and 43 points to begin the series – before being a complete nonfactor in Game 5. Houston’s lineup switch to Omer Asik from Terrence Jones has allowed Howard to guard Aldridge more often and the results were even better than what Houston expected. Aldridge, who was 3-of-12 shooting, bristled over the notion that Howard silenced him. “The ball didn’t come to me as much,” Aldridge told reporters. “Our guys were making shots and we were playing off them and that’s how the game went. It wasn’t about how Dwight guarded me or anything like that.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Portland.
* Rockets are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Portland.
* Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
* Rockets are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 54 percent of bets are on Portland -3.5 while 67 percent are on Over 213.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three big betting trends for the second round of the NHL playoffs

With the pool of 16 postseason teams now whittled down to eight, bettors will be looking for any trend they can take advantage of heading into the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Taking a look at some of the recent second-round results, here are some patterns that have emerged as we prepare to kick off the round of eight:

Under Takes Over

Most fans will acknowledge that goal scoring generally begins to dry up as the Stanley Cup tournament reaches the second round, and totals are often adjusted to reflect the increased reliance on defense and aversion to risk-taking. Yet, aside from a bizarre stretch during the 2011 Stanley Cup playoffs, Under bettors have reaped the benefits in the round of eight. The 2011 second round finished 11-9-1 O/U, thanks in large part to a 9-0-1 outlier from May 3-8. But 2012 saw that number drop to 7-11-3 O/U. The Under trend was even more pronounced last season, as teams went 7-13-4 O/U in Round 2.

Home Ownership

Betting on home favorites in the Stanley Cup playoffs is often a risky proposition. They usually don't pay out well and with the league trending toward greater parity, it's a major gamble. Despite the perceived increase in balance between teams, second-round home faves have steadily become more dominant over the years. Home favorites have improved from a modest 9-8 record in 2011 to an 11-7 mark in 2012 and an eye-popping 17-2 last season. It will be interesting to see if this particular trend continues into 2014, or if last year was an exception.

Penalty Killing the Key

While the number of power plays per game doesn't drop significantly from Rounds 1 to 2, what teams do with their opportunities plays a major role in whether they advance to the conference finals. Over the past three postseasons, no team has reached the third round of the Stanley Cup playoffs with less than an 84.2-percent penalty-killing success rate in Round 2. Furthermore, the combined penalty-kill percentage of all 12 second-round teams to reach the conference finals in the past three years - 88.3 percent - would have ranked first in the NHL during the 2013-14 regular season.

 

[goldencontender]

GC: NHL Totals Play

Friday Card has 3 Big 5* NBA Playoff Power system plays, two have perfect indicators and one is at 93% long term. MLB 80% DOG system leads the big Bases card that also has a 91% totals system that average over 11 runs per game. NBA + MLB Top plays cash on Pacers and Marlins. NHL Totals Play below.

On Friday the NHL Totals Play is on the Over in the NY .Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins game. Rotation numbers 3/4 at 7:05 eastern. These two teams have played over in all meetings this season with every game accumulating at least 6 goals. Both teams play a fast paced style and move the puck from end to end very quickly and both create several scoring chances. The Pens are the #4 scoring team in the league and #2 on the Power play. They have flown over in 6 of the last 8 with 3 or more days rest , 14 of 21 of late vs winning teams and both times this season when the posted total was 5 in their home games. The Rangers are off a big defensive game 7 effort holding Philly to 1 goal. Teams who are off game 7 wins be it at home or away have not been able to produce the same intensity on the defensive end. The Rangers will be able to score on a Penguins team that is average defensively. Look for this game to go over the total tonight. On Friday start the weekend big With a Powerful NBA Lineup that has 3 big 5* Systems, 2 are perfect one is 93% all with long term time tested playoff indicators. In Bases we have an 80% MLB Dog with bite that wins outright and a totals system that is cashing over 90% and averages over 11 runs per game. Top plays cashed with Pacers and Marlins. Jump on this Big Bases and Buckets card now as we Get the month of May off to a fast start. For the Bonus Play take the over 5 goals in the NY Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins game. GC

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/2/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Friday, 5/2/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________

NBA Playoff Journal (May 1)
Wednesday saw two teams take 3-2 leads in their series (Raptors over the Nets and Spurs over the Mavericks), while the Rockets staved off elimination by beating the Blazers 108-98 in Houston. Yes, home teams went 3-0 SU on Wednesday but again, struggled ATS at 1-2 (recap coming later). I’ll start with the Rockets/Blazers series, which had seen THREE of the first four games go into overtime. This game looked like it might go an extra-session as well, when Lillard’s layup cut the Houston lead to 100-98 with 3:39 left. However, the Blazers would not score again.

Howard entered this game averaging 27.0 PPG and 14.7 RPG but with his team down 3-1, he was being asked, “what’s up?” After all, Portland's Aldridge had been the series’ dominant big man, averaging 35.3 PPG and 11.5 RPG as Portland took a 3-1 lead. Wednesday, Howard played well again (22 & 14) plus got some unexpected help from Lin, who scored 21 points off the bench. Aldridge was finally kept in check by Houston (8 & 8 on 3 of 12 shooting) plus the Portland bench accounted for just FIVE points (combined 2 of 11 shooting). An issue for Houston has to be, can the Rockets get two more wins, if Harden can’t start shooting better? He’s averaging 25.4 PPG in the series but he’s converting only 34.7% of all FGs, including 25.0% on threes.

Bottom line is that the Raptors took a 3-2 lead in their series with the Nets but one wonders how the team could blow ALL of a lead which at one time reached 26 points! Toronto led Brooklyn 94-72 with 11:23 remaining in the fourth quarter but Joe Johnson’s (30 points) three-pointer tied the game at 101-all, at the 3:18 mark (capped a 29-7 Nets run). The game was again tied at 106-all with 1:23 left but the Raptors never trailed after Lowry’s three-pointer with 1:04 left to go. Lowry scored 36 points and backcourt partner DeRozan added 23 points. Like Washington’s backcourt duo of Beal and Wall, Toronto’s duo has really made a name for itself this postseason, as DeRozan has averaged 24.2 PPG and Lowry 21.8-4.4-5.2.

The Spurs never trailed in their Game #5 win against the Mavs but San Antonio was never able to shake Dallas, either. The ATS winner was decided late, when Vince Carter’s three-pointer cut the san Antonio lead to 105-99. Ginobili TWICE made just one of two FTs in the final 21 seconds, giving San Antonio a 109-103 win, as a 6 1/2-point favorite. Nowitzki had his best game of the series (26 & 15), Carter had 28 and Monta Ellis 21 (he leads the Mavs this series, averaging 20.4 PPG). Harris made a HUGE splash in the first two games (18.5 PPG) but has averaged 5.0 PPG on 6 of 23 shooting (26.1%) the last three games. Parker fought off an ankle injury to score 23 points and how about San Antonio’s starting frontcourt? Splitter had 17 & 12, Duncan 16 & 12 and Leonard 15 & 8. Ginobili had 19 points and is having a terrific series (19.6-4.0-4.4).

Heading into Thursday’s three, Game #6 contests, home teams are 18-21 SU, a winning percentage of .462. Home teams are really struggling ATS at 13-23-3 (36.1%) or minus-12.1 net games. “Zig-Zaggers,” who have rarely shown a profit for some time now in the NBA postseason, are “stuffing their pockets” so far, as last night’s 3-0 mark makes them 19-9-3 ATS, or plus-9.1 net games. Talk about “stuffing one’s pockets,” over bettor can’t wipe that collective smile off their faces, cashing 26 of 39 ‘tickets,’ a 67% win rate!

In all three matchups Thursday evening, one team will be facing elimination. In the first two games of the night, it’s the road team (and the higher seed), which has its back to the wall. The Pacers are the East’s No. 1 seed but Indiana takes the court in Atlanta (at 7:05 ET on the NBA Network) down 3-2. Oklahoma City is the West’s No. 2 seed but the Thunder will also find themselves down 3-2 when they take the court (at 8:05 ET on TNT) in Memphis against the Grizzlies. The last four games in this series have been decided in OT. Much has been made of the fact that the Hawks are trying to become just the sixth No. 8 seed to upset a No. 1 seed but let me add that No. 7 seeds have fared just as poorly against No. 2 seeds, as No. 8s have against No. 1s. The fact is, if the Grizzlies can get one more win over the Thunder, they will also become just the sixth No. 7 to beat a No. 2 in the NBA’s first round. The Indiana/Atlanta game is a pick’em (total is 186 1/2), while the Thunder are favored by 2 1/2 points (total is 185).

The third and final game on Thursday night (and the second-half of TNT’s doubleheader at 10:35 ET), is the “Donald Sterling series,” featuring the Clippers and Warriors. The Clippers seemed more relaxed after Adam Silver announced his lifetime ban on Donald Sterling Tuesday night at Staples Center, taking a 3-2 lead with a 113-103 win. Relaxed, relieved and ready to resume their championship chase, the Clippers will look to finish off the Warriors. Los Angeles is favored by 1 1/2 points (total is 209 1/2) but it’s hard not to note that the Clippers are trying to win just the team's THIRD playoff series since Sterling bought the franchise in 1981. Then again, Warriors head coach Mark Jackson said his players have been just as drained the past five days by the Sterling scandal, as LA’s players.
__________________________________________

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#531 TORONTO @ #532 BROOKLYN
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2, TSN Toronto, WWOR Brooklyn - Line: Nets -5, Total: 191) - The Toronto Raptors attempt to win a playoff series for the first time in 13 years when they visit the Brooklyn Nets on Friday for Game #6 of their first-round clash. The Raptors fended off a furious late rally by the Nets to take Game #5 on Wednesday by a 115-113 margin and seize a 3-2 series advantage. It puts them on the cusp of the franchise's first series victory since it knocked off the New York Knicks in the first round in 2001.

Brooklyn is trying to take some solace in the fact that it erased a 22-point fourth-quarter deficit before falling in Game #5, and remains confident it can rally once more. "We understand what the task is, and we feel like we’re up to it,” Nets point guard Deron Williams told reporters after collecting 13 points and nine assists in the loss. “We’ve got to start by protecting home court and putting forth a better effort than we did (Wednesday) in the first half.”

•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (51-36 SU, 48-35-4 ATS): Kyle Lowry's emergence as a star was the biggest factor in Toronto's rise to the Atlantic Division crown, and he put forth a vintage performance in Game #5, scoring 21 of his 36 points in the first half. The Raptors continued to get great support from fellow point guard Greivis Vasquez, who came off the bench to produce 15 points and six rebounds in 26 minutes and hit a big 3-pointer down the stretch. In a series dominated by guard play, Vasquez has led Toronto in assists (6.6) while ranking second (nine) to Lowry (13) in 3-pointers.

•ABOUT THE NETS (46-41 SU, 44-42-1 ATS): It was notable that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, two playoff-tested veterans acquired to help Brooklyn get to the next level, sat out the entire fourth quarter in Game #5, as coach Jason Kidd stuck with Andray Blatche and Mirza Teletovic. Pierce was the driving force in the fourth quarter of a Game #1 win, teamed with Garnett to provide an early boost in a Game #3 victory and was Brooklyn's lone offensive threat in a Game #4 setback. However, Teletovic and Blatche combined for 16 points, seven rebounds and two steals in the fourth quarter alone of Game #5.

•PREGAME NOTES: Williams is 0-for-6 from 3-point range in the last two games and Brooklyn is shooting 29.7 percent for the series.... Lowry and SG DeMar DeRozan are a combined 84-of-94 from the line.... Game #7, if necessary, is scheduled for Sunday in Toronto.... The Raptors are 42-28 against the spread (60.0%) versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game on the season this season.... Brooklyn is 18-32 versus the spread (36.0%) in home games versus good three-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts over the last three seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 581 times, while BROOKLYN covered the spread 396 times. *EDGE against the spread =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN won the game straight up 519 times, while TORONTO won 463 times. In 1000 simulated games, 720 games went over the total, while 259 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the first half line 567 times, while BROOKLYN covered the first half line 433 times. *EDGE against first half line =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, 665 games went over first half total, while 335 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TORONTO is 39-34 against the spread versus BROOKLYN since 1996.
--BROOKLYN is 41-39 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--39 of 74 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--TORONTO is 38-37 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--47 of 76 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Brooklyn.
--Raptors are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Brooklyn.

--Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 Friday games.
--Over is 7-1 in Raptors last 8 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 7-1 in Raptors L8 when their opponent allowed 100 points or more LG.

--Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Nets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 6-0 in Nets L6 after scoring 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (BROOKLYN) - an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%), revenging a road loss versus opponent, after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points.
(86-49 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.7%, +32.1 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.4, Opponent 52 (Average first half point differential = -0.6)

The situation's record this season is: (13-11).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (48-31).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (272-215).
_______________________________

StatSystems Sports
Your #1 Source for Winning Information

StatSystemsSports.net takes pride in providing the average player with an edge by building a full in-depth analysis of football, basketball and baseball games. All aspects of games are considered. These include; but are not limited to, injuries, weather, playing surface, team chemistry, individual match-ups, line moves, scheduling, fatigue, statistical analysis, trend analysis, etc. The better prepared you are - The better chance you have of winning, plain and simple.

"Get the most sought after plays in the industry today!" Call us today for a 1 Day VIP Pass - $29.00, 7 Day VIP Pass - $149.00, or get our most popular 30 Day VIP Package for just $499.00. "You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
___________________________________

Western Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#533 SAN ANTONIO @ #534 DALLAS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN, FSN Southwest San Antonio, KTXA Dallas - Line: Spurs -3, Total: 198.5) - The San Antonio Spurs look to advance out of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs for the 12th time in 14 years when they visit Dallas for Game #6 of their best-of-seven matchup Friday night. San Antonio has rebounded from an early 2-1 series deficit by taking the last two contests by a combined 10 points. The Spurs held off a Mavericks charge in the fourth quarter of Wednesday's Game #5 clash to produce a 109-103 win, with Tony Parker leading the way with 23 points.

San Antonio's ability to survive was notable given the performances of Vince Carter, who hit seven 3-pointers en route to 28 points, and Dirk Nowitzki, who was dominant in the fourth quarter in finishing with a series-high 26 points. “I stuck with it, my team said keep shooting and I was able to make a couple there in the fourth," said Nowitzki, who was held under 20 points in each of the first four games of the series and struggled in Game #5 until his fourth-quarter breakout. Nowitzki is shooting 41.2 percent from the floor in the series and has made just 1-of-7 3-pointers.

•ABOUT THE SPURS (65-22 SU, 45-42-0 ATS): San Antonio is at its best when it shares the basketball and Game #5 was a wonderful example, as four different Spurs recorded at least five assists and the club had 24 against only six turnovers after giving up the ball an average of 18 times over the previous three games. "They did a great job of just moving the ball and making the right decisions, keeping us on our heels," Carter said of San Antonio. Parker made a key 3-pointer in the final minutes as he shook off a bum ankle and a lack of sleep after the birth of his son early in the morning to produce his best scoring output of the series.

•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (51-36 SU, 49-38-0 ATS): The Spurs have won two of the last three games and - if not for Carter's buzzer-beater in Game #3 - would have won that one as well, and much of it can be attributed to their ability to stifle Devin Harris. The veteran guard averaged 18.5 points off the bench in the first two games of the series and was one of the keys to the Dallas rout in Game #2, but he has a total of 15 points on 6-of-23 shooting in the last three games. The Mavericks bench will be fortified in this one, as forward DeJuan Blair returns from a one-game suspension.

•PREGAME NOTES: Spurs F Tim Duncan will be playing his 217th career playoff game, which moves him into fifth place on the all-time list.... San Antonio G Manu Ginobili is averaging 19.6 points in the series and leads all players in 3-pointers (12) and steals (nine).... Game #7, if necessary, would be Sunday in San Antonio.... The Spurs are 55-34 against the spread (61.7%) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... The Mavericks are 27-11 versus the spread (71.0%) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the spread 542 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 428 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 512 times, while DALLAS won 469 times. In 1000 simulated games, 704 games went over the total, while 296 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the first half line 521 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 479 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 645 games went over first half total, while 334 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 52-49 against the spread versus DALLAS since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 65-41 straight up against DALLAS since 1996.
--54 of 104 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 54-49 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1996.
--56 of 104 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Spurs are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Spurs are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Dallas.

--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

--Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
--Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
--Spurs are 0-5 ATS L5 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.

--Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Mavericks are 6-0 ATS L6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 4-0 in Mavericks L4 after allowing 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DALLAS) - a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), revenging a loss versus opponent, off 2 covers where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog.
(69-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%, +41.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -229.6
The average score in these games was: Team 103.3, Opponent 93.1 (Average point differential = +10.2)

The situation's record this season is: (11-5, -2.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-11, +8.1 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (211-59, +34.3 units).
_______________________________

#535 HOUSTON @ #536 PORTLAND
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, ESPN, CSN Houston, KGW Portland - Line: Trail Blazers -3.5, Total: 213) - The Houston Rockets staved off elimination and attempt to even the Western Conference first-round series at 3-3 when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday. The Rockets thrived with their season on the line in Game #5 and avoided the late-game breakdowns that hurt them earlier in the series while posting a 108-98 victory on Wednesday. Now the Trail Blazers feel the urgency to wrap up the series at home to keep from having to travel back to Houston for a Game #7.

The Rockets held Portland star LaMarcus Aldridge to eight points while being highly intent on keeping their season going. “I don’t want to go on vacation,” Houston center Dwight Howard told reporters after Game #5. “I want to win. I want to give everything I’ve got. Every night, put my heart into it and sacrifice my body and do whatever I can to help this team win.” The Trail Blazers are trying to halt a streak of six straight first-round exits that dates back to 2000. “We’ve been good at home all year and now we’ll go back home and take care of business,” Aldridge told reporters.

•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (56-31 SU, 43-42-2 ATS): Starting point guard Patrick Beverley was limited in Game #5 due to an illness and Jeremy Lin stepped up to have his best performance of the series. Lin had 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting as he rebounded from a poor Game #4 performance that included a costly turnover late in regulation. “I just tried to be aggressive,” Lin told reporters. “I felt like I needed to be more of a spark for the team. I hadn’t done a great job of that in this series so I just tried to come out as aggressive as I can be.” Howard has been Houston’s best player of the series, posting five straight double-doubles while averaging 26 points, 14.2 rebounds and three blocks.

•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (57-30 SU, 46-41-0 ATS): Aldridge averaged 35.3 points over the first four games – including outings of 46 and 43 points to begin the series – before being a complete nonfactor in Game #5. Houston’s lineup switch to Omer Asik from Terrence Jones has allowed Howard to guard Aldridge more often and the results were even better than what Houston expected. Aldridge, who was 3-of-12 shooting, bristled over the notion that Howard silenced him. “The ball didn’t come to me as much,” Aldridge told reporters. “Our guys were making shots and we were playing off them and that’s how the game went. It wasn’t about how Dwight guarded me or anything like that.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Portland PG Damian Lillard is having a strong series by averaging 25.6 points and 7.4 assists.... Rockets SG James Harden is averaging 25.4 points in the series but continues to struggle with his shooting – 34.7 percent from the field and 25 percent from 3-point range.... Trail Blazers SG Wesley Matthews set a playoff career-high with 27 points in Game 4 and he tied a franchise playoff record by making four 3-pointers in the third quarter.... Houston is 2-11 versus the spread (23.0%) in road games after a win by 10 points or more, and 1-8 ATS (11.1%) in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.... The Trail Blazers are 0-7 against the spread in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game, and 9-19 ATS (32.1%) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the spread 525 times, while PORTLAND covered the spread 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PORTLAND won the game straight up 535 times, while HOUSTON won 442 times. In 1000 simulated games, 495 games went over the total, while 477 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the first half line 523 times, while PORTLAND covered the first half line 440 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 544 games went under first half total, while 456 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PORTLAND is 37-37 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 44-34 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--38 of 74 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--HOUSTON is 46-29 versus the first half line when playing against PORTLAND since 1996.
--38 of 73 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Rockets are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
--Rockets are 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Portland.

--Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Portland.

--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 road games.
--Over is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Over is 5-1 in Rockets L6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

--Over is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 overall.
--Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 home games.
--Over is 6-1 in Trail Blazers L7 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road teams versus the money line (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO) after 42+ games.
(69-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.2%, +35.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -139.2
The average score in these games was: Team 103.1, Opponent 98.1 (Average point differential = +5)

The situation's record this season is: (11-10, +0.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-19, +19.3 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (229-112, +41.6 units).
_______________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Wainwright is 4-0, 1.24 in his last four starts; he's thrown 25 consecutive scoreless innings.
-- Lee is 2-2, 2.25 in his last five starts. Strasburg is 1-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.
-- Peralta is 3-1, 3.04 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett is 0-0, 1.00 in his last three starts. Koehler is 2-2, 2.97 in five starts this season.
-- Wheeler is 1-0, 2.95 in his last three starts. de la Rosa is 2-0, 1.50 in his last two starts.
-- Cashner is 2-0, 1.21 in three home starts.

-- Danks is 2-1, 3.38 in his last four starts.
-- Shields is 3-0, 2.14 in his last three starts.

-- Cole has a 1.20 RA in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Wood is 1-2, 4.08 in his last three starts.
-- Leake is 1-1, 4.79 in his last three starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-1, 6.31 in five starts. Minor is making first '14 start; he was 1-1, 2.19 in his last two starts LY.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 9.39 in his last three starts.

-- Price is 1-2, 7.65 in his last three starts. Nuno is 0-0, 2.89 in two starts, throwing total of only 9.1 IP in two games.
-- Salazar is 0-3, 7.32 in his last four starts.
-- Buchholz is 1-2, 7.71 in five starts. Straily is 0-0, 7.20 in his last three.
-- Porcello has a 4.91 RA in his last three starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-4, 6.59 in five starts for Baltimore. Nolasco is 2-2, 6.67 in five starts this season.
-- Hernnadez is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts. Peacock is 0-1, 6.30 in two starts this season.
-- Santiago is 0-4, 5.13 in five starts this season. Lewis is 1-1, 4.60 in his three starts this season.

-- Morrow is 0-1, 6.75 in his last three starts.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Wainwright 1-6; Wood 1-5
-- Strasburg 2-6; Lee 1-6
-- Peralta 0-5; Leake 1-5
-- Beckett 1-4; Koehler 0-5
-- Lincecum 3-5; Minor 0-0
-- Wheeler 2-5; de la Rosa 2-6
-- Arroyo 2-5; Cashner 1-6

-- Price 2-6; Nuno 1-2
-- Danks 2-5; Salazar 1-5
-- Straily 4-5; Buchholz 3-5
-- Porcello 3-4; Shields 1-6
-- Jimenez 2-5; Nolasco 0-5
-- Hernandez 1-6; Peacock 1-2
-- Lewis 1-3; Santiago 1-5

-- Morrow 1-5; Cole 1-5

Totals
-- Eight of last eleven games at Wrigley Field went over.
-- Eight of eleven Washington road games went over.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati home games went over.
-- Six of last eight Dodger games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Colorado games went over total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in San Diego's last six home games. Over is 9-4 in Arizona's last thirteen road games.

-- Four of last five Pittsburgh home games stayed under.

-- Eight of last eleven Bronx home games stayed under; 11 of last 14 Tampa Bay games went over.
-- Four of last five White Sox road games went over.
-- Six of last eight games at Fenway Park went over.
-- Four of last five Detroit road games stayed under. Four of Lansas City's last five home games went over.
-- Eight of last nine Baltimore road games went over.
-- Last three Houston games stayed under the total; four of last five Seattle tilts went over.
-- Nine of eleven Angel home games went over total.

Hot teams
-- Reds won four of their last five home games.
-- Nationals won four of their last five games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their 14 road games. Miami won five of its last six home games.
-- Giants won six of their last seven games.
-- Colorado won six of its last eight home games. Mets won seven of their last ten games overall.


-- A's won 12 of their 16 road games.
-- Detroit won four of its last five games. Royals won three of last four.
-- Orioles won six of their last nine games.
-- Mariners won five of their last six games.
-- Angels won their last four home games.

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost five of their last seven games. St Louis lost five of its last seven on the road.
-- Phillies lost three of their last four home games.
-- Milwaukee lost three of its last five games.
-- Braves lost last three games, but won eight of last nine at home.
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games. Padres are 4-7 in their last 11.

-- Pirates lost ten of their last twelve games. Toronto lost six of its last eight.

-- Bronx is 5-6 in its last eleven games.
-- Indians lost their last six games, but won four of last five at home. White Sox are 5-8 on the road.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last seven home games.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last five games.
-- Astros lost eleven of their last fourteen home games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last six games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Arizona at San Diego

The Padres open their series tonight against a Diamondbacks team that is 2-8 in its last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. San Diego is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-160). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, MAY 2 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.912; Cubs (Wood) 14.534 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); N/A

Game 903-904: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 16.034; Philadelphia (Lee) 15.186 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-105); Under

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 16.184; Cincinnati (Leake) 15.262 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Over

Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.966; Miami (Koehler) 14.469 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Under

Game 909-910: San Francisco at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.468; Atlanta (Minor) 16.150 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Under

Game 911-912: NY Mets at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.321; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.386 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 11 Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Over

Game 913-914: Arizona at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Arroyo) 13.921; San Diego (Cashner) 15.455 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-160); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-160); Under

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 14.424; NY Yankees (Nuno) 15.352 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.945; Cleveland (Salazar) 16.326 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-140); Under

Game 919-920: Oakland at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 15.476; Boston (Buchholz) 14.363 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+105); Over

Game 921-922: Detroit at Kansas City (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.662; Kansas City (Shields) 16.311 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-150); Under

Game 923-924: Baltimore at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 16.092; Minnesota (Nolasco) 14.895 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over

Game 925-926: Seattle at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.532; Houston (Peacock) 15.493 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); Over

Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.316; LA Angels (Santiago) 15.691 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Under

Game 929-930: Toronto at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 14.794; Pittsburgh (Cole) 16.291 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

NY Rangers at Pittsburgh

The Rangers advanced with a 2-1 win over the Flyers and come into tonight's opener with a 4-0 record in their last 4 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. New York is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+130). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

FRIDAY, MAY 2 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 3-4: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.254; Pittsburgh 11.303 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-150); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+130); Under

Game 5-6: Minnesota at Chicago (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.778; Chicago 13.322 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-200); 5 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-200); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

San Antonio at Dallas

The Spurs look to close out the series and come into tonight's contest with a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games in Dallas. San Antonio is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

FRIDAY, MAY 2 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 531-532: Toronto at Brooklyn (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 120.982; Brooklyn 122.920 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2; 195 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5; 191 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5); Over

Game 533-534: San Antonio at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 128.417; Dallas 123.237 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 193 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio 3; 198 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under

Game 535-536: Houston at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.141; Portland 125.975 Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 5; 218 Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3 1/2; 213 Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Nets -5
Brewers +125
Royals(RL) -1.5(+149)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play FRI Braves -150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Friday

Brewers +105

Dodgers -130

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Pacers (-1) on Thursday and likes the Spurs on Friday.

The deficit is 210 sirignanos.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, MAY 2nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Friday, 5/2/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________

May's Good & Bad Month Pitchers
The running of the Kentucky Derby each year signals the fact that Major League Baseball enters its 2nd month of play. And with it a handful of surprise teams take center stage. The key to sustaining will be the success, or lack of it, from the pitching staffs. With that thought in mind, let’s zero in on pitchers that will look to keep their team in the race and those that may pull up before they hit the wire.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of May. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in May team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each May over the last three years.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS

•Clay Buchholz: (11-5, 68.7%) - Like the Red Sox themselves, Buchholz has not had the kind of success early in the season one might expect, with opposing teams hitting .333 against him in April. But like the weather in the Northeast, this is when the Boston right-hander starts warming up and victories follow.

•Mark Buehrle: (13-3, 81.2%) - Yes, the crafty Toronto lefty had a last rough outing, but he finished the first month 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA. His command since the middle of last season has been impeccable and he gives the Blue Jays a shot at a victory, literally every time out. How durable is this pitcher? Since 1980, who besides Greg Maddux has thrown 200 or more innings in 13 consecutive seasons? You just figured it out!

•Matt Cain: (13-4, 76.4%) - For a pitcher making ace money like San Francisco is paying him, his career record of 93-91 does not suggest a top line hurler. However, his 3.37 lifetime ERA is certainly sharp and the fact opposing clubs have only .227 against him at least suggests he’s earning his keep. As the numbers show, Matt has been raising cane with the opposition in the second month of the season.

•Alex Cobb: (7-3, 70.0%) - The right-hander threw 20 fastballs on Wednesday, which marks the first time he has thrown off a mound since he went on the DL with the oblique strain. He has been steadily progressing, as he threw from 90 feet Tuesday, and remains in line for a late-May return to the Rays' rotation.

•Dillon Gee: (12-5, 70.5%) - Gee’s success has never been predicated on velocity, but all his pitches have good movement and he’s been particularly effective in the front part of the season and at Citi Field. With last year’s elbow issues behind him, expect more success from the right-hander this month.

•Gio Gonzalez: (12-3, 80.0%) - The Washington left-hander is wild enough with all of his pitches, which never allows opposing hitters to feel comfortable in the batter’s box. Throughout his career he’s always allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and his breaking pitches have featured sharp downward movement or big sweeping action. GG’s tough to get a read on as a hitter.

•Zack Greinke: (11-4, 73.3%) - The right-hander has the complete toolbox of pitches and can throw a strike with any of them on any count. Now that Greinke’s mastered the mental aspect of pitching, he’s as good a No. 2 pitcher as there is in baseball and would an ace on most staffs.

•Mat Latos: (8-3, 72.7%) - The right-hander had off-season knee surgery and developed elbow problems likely trying to compensate for the knee in mid-April and was shutdown. Started playing catch again at the end of April, but no specific time has been set for his return to the Reds rotation.

•Mike Leake: (8-4, 66.6%) - Since further developing his curveball last season, this Cincinnati pitcher is no longer two bad outings away from Triple-A like in the past. He’s not been quite as good as last year to date, leaving too many pitches in the zone and has been taken yard six times already. With warmer days ahead and chance to have a better grip on the baseball, his numbers should match last year if not improve.

•Jake Peavy: (10-4, 71.4%) - While the right-hander does not throw in the mid-90’s like he used to in San Diego, he become a smarter ball-chucker and still is averaging a punch-out per inning with Boston. Peavy still hides the ball well with his unique delivery and is expected to a real positive for Boston looking ahead.

•Max Scherzer: (12-6, 66.6%) - The 29-year old from Missouri is picking up where he left off from his Cy Young campaign, with better than a strike out an inning and a 5-to-1 K-to-walk ratio. And remember, he turned down a $144 million offer from the Tigers. Dating back to his Arizona days, the talent was in place with all the pitches, but the confidence has grown and hanging around Justin Verlander did not hurt. Scherzer’s WHIP of 1.05 is on pace for a career-low thus far in 2014.

•Jason Vargas: (12-5, 70.5%) - The left-hander looks far more comfortable in Kansas City than he ever did last year in his one season in Anaheim. Vargas relies a lot on deception and he’s been a magician thus far with the Royals in posting a 2.40 ERA and opponents hitting only .240 against his tosses. He’s also cashed 7 straight tickets in May.

•Ryan Vogelsong: (11-5, 68.7%) - Since returning to the big leagues in 2011, the Giants No. 4 or 5 starter has faced the critics just waiting for him to fail. Last season he gave them plenty to chirp about and 2014 began in much the same way with a series of poor outings before a fine performance against Cleveland his last time on the mound. Let’s see if Vogelsong can build on this and has a typical May.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS

•Jhoulys Chacin: (4-8, 33.3%) - After hurting his shoulder in spring training was shutdown. Chacin is coming of off good effort in rehab start and if all continues to go well should be back with Colorado this month. Given his past this month, this could be viewed a couple of ways.

•Doug Fister: (4-12, 25.0%) - Fister make his first rehab start at Class AA Harrisburg, where he worked with starting catcher Wilson Ramos as Ramos rehabs a broken hamate bone. If all goes well, Fister could make his Nationals debut next week. The right-hander is slated to make one more rehab start on May 2 and if that goes well will be called up by Washington.

•Matt Garza: (3-7, 30.0%) - While Garza’s record has never matched his ego (68-70 lifetime), he’s a steady contributor in the middle to back end of the rotation. Playing on a much improved Milwaukee club thus far in 2014, let’s see if he can overcome past difficulties like he had in May previously.

•Edwin Jackson : (4-11, 26.6%) - If you could make the “perfect” Chicago Cubs pitcher that personifies them, Jackson is the guy. Seldom successful on any of the nine major league teams he’s played for (79-91 record); he’s an innings-eater on a bad team and is easily replaceable for a younger and less expensive pitcher, which evidently the Cubs do not have.

•Kyle Lohse: (5-12, 29.4%) - Milwaukee has two starters that fit the “bad” mold, but Lohse has a real chance to turn the tide. Thus far he’s 4-1 and foes are swinging and missing frequently (40 K’s in 40 innings) and making feeble contact when they do strike the horsehide (.207 BA). It seems very likely his losing streak will end soon. FYI: he’s dropped 8 straight team starts in May.

•Juan Nicasio: (4-8, 33.3%) - After making a career-high 31 starts a season ago, the Rockies right-hander has a 5.27 ERA to begin the year, surrendering a .300 batting average. He’ll need to fix this fast or memories of past May’s will happen again.

•Ricky Nolasco: (6-12, 33.3%) - Nolasco used to be a bettor’s favorite on the road. Now he’s a slump-buster with a Big Gulp ERA of 6.67 and is being racked for a .347 batting average. How long will Minnesota tolerate this?
_________________________________________________________

Betting Notes - Friday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Wainwright is 4-0, 1.24 in his last four starts; he's thrown 25 consecutive scoreless innings.
-- Lee is 2-2, 2.25 in his last five starts. Strasburg is 1-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.
-- Peralta is 3-1, 3.04 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett is 0-0, 1.00 in his last three starts. Koehler is 2-2, 2.97 in five starts this season.
-- Wheeler is 1-0, 2.95 in his last three starts. de la Rosa is 2-0, 1.50 in his last two starts.
-- Cashner is 2-0, 1.21 in three home starts.

-- Danks is 2-1, 3.38 in his last four starts.
-- Shields is 3-0, 2.14 in his last three starts.

-- Cole has a 1.20 RA in his last couple starts.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Wood is 1-2, 4.08 in his last three starts.
-- Leake is 1-1, 4.79 in his last three starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-1, 6.31 in five starts. Minor is making first '14 start; he was 1-1, 2.19 in his last two starts LY.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 9.39 in his last three starts.

-- Price is 1-2, 7.65 in his last three starts. Nuno is 0-0, 2.89 in two starts, throwing total of only 9.1 IP in two games.
-- Salazar is 0-3, 7.32 in his last four starts.
-- Buchholz is 1-2, 7.71 in five starts. Straily is 0-0, 7.20 in his last three.
-- Porcello has a 4.91 RA in his last three starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-4, 6.59 in five starts for Baltimore. Nolasco is 2-2, 6.67 in five starts this season.
-- Hernnadez is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts. Peacock is 0-1, 6.30 in two starts this season.
-- Santiago is 0-4, 5.13 in five starts this season. Lewis is 1-1, 4.60 in his three starts this season.

-- Morrow is 0-1, 6.75 in his last three starts.

•Totals
-- Eight of last eleven games at Wrigley Field went over.
-- Eight of eleven Washington road games went over.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati home games went over.
-- Six of last eight Dodger games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Colorado games went over total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in San Diego's last six home games. Over is 9-4 in Arizona's last thirteen road games.

-- Four of last five Pittsburgh home games stayed under.

-- Eight of last eleven New York home games stayed under; 11 of last 14 Tampa Bay games went over.
-- Four of last five White Sox road games went over.
-- Six of last eight games at Fenway Park went over.
-- Four of last five Detroit road games stayed under. Four of Kansas City's last five home games went over.
-- Eight of last nine Baltimore road games went over.
-- Last three Houston games stayed under the total; four of last five Seattle tilts went over.
-- Nine of eleven Angel home games went over total.

•Hot Teams
-- Reds won four of their last five home games.
-- Nationals won four of their last five games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their 14 road games. Miami won five of its last six home games.
-- Giants won six of their last seven games.
-- Rockies won six of its last eight home games. New York won seven of their last ten games overall.

-- Athletics won 12 of their 16 road games.
-- Tigers won four of its last five games. Kansas City won three of last four.
-- Orioles won six of their last nine games.
-- Mariners won five of their last six games.
-- Angels won their last four home games.

•Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost five of their last seven games. St Louis lost five of its last seven on the road.
-- Phillies lost three of their last four home games.
-- Brewers lost three of its last five games.
-- Braves lost last three games, but won eight of last nine at home.
-- Diamondbacks lost four of its last five games. San Diego is 4-7 in their last 11.

-- Pirates lost ten of their last twelve games. Toronto lost six of its last eight.

-- Yankees are 5-6 in its last eleven games.
-- Indians lost their last six games, but won four of last five at home. Chicago is 5-8 on the road.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last seven home games.
-- Twins lost four of its last five games.
-- Astros lost eleven of their last fourteen home games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last six games.

Diamond Trends - Friday
•CHICAGO CUBS are 6-20 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.9, OPPONENT 4.5.

•SAN DIEGO is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.7, OPPONENT 3.1.

•KANSAS CITY is 12-1 (+12.4 Units) against the run line versus American League teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.9, OPPONENT 2.8.

•JOHN DANKS is 1-10 (-10.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DANKS 2.8, OPPONENT 5.1.

•STEPHEN STRASBURG is 12-0 OVER (+12.4 Units) after giving up no earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was STRASBURG 6.4, OPPONENT 5.4.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-160 to -115) (TEXAS) - with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season against opponent with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season.
(63-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +41.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (42-35 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -152
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +0.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 42 (54.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7, +11.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (481-293, +34.6 units).
___________________________________________

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
San Diego Padres -155 over Arizona Diamondbacks
(System Record: 19-0, won last 6 games)
Overall Record: 19-12

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -193 over Minnesota
(Playoff Record: 10-3, won last 3 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 101-78-2

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Dallas Mavericks +3 over San Antonio Spurs
(Playoff Record: 6-4-2, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 83-90-7

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Quilmes + Argentinos Juniors UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 564-20, won last 3 game and 2 pushes)
Overall Record: 564-477-83

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

River City Sharps

We like the way both of these teams have been swinging the bats lately and think that the Reds are going to get to Peralta early tonight. The Sharps say...

2 UNITS - MIL/CIN OVER 7.5 (-110)