jeff benton friday
1-0 yesterday for 30 dimes.. 25-25-1 PLUS 45 dimes since i started posting..he is on fire now, and is on one of his incredible streaks..i've witnessed several of these over the years. anyway here are the plays for friday.
Friday's Action
20 Dime selection for Fridayon the Utah Jazz minus the points at home. in Game 3 of their best of 7 opening-rouad series against the Nuggets. As I post this play live at approximately 11:45 a.m. Eastersn, the Jazz are giving a solid 2 1/2 poines in Las Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime selection for Fridayon the Boston Celtics plus the points on the road. in Game 3 of their best of 7 opening-rouad series against the Heat. As I post this play live at approximately 11:45 a.m. Eastersn, the Celtics are catching a solid 4 poines in Las Vegas and offshore.
Jazz
If not for one poor quarter (the fourth quarter of Game 1), the Utah Jazz would’ve escaped Denver with a 2-0 series lead. Still, the Jazz were more than happy to get the split in the first two games, especially playing without center Mehmet Okur (who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Game 1) and scoring forward Andre Kirilenko (who remains sidelined with a calf injury).
Now the Jazz take home-court advantage back to Salt Lake City for this all-important Game 3, and I’m loving Utah here, especially at this ridiculous near pick-em price. Just compare the numbers: The Jazz went 32-9 SU in Salt Lake this year, and their 26-13-2 ATS mark at home was the best in the NBA. Meanwhile, Denver was a sub-.500 road team at 19-22 SU and 15-21-5 ATS. Down the stretch, playing without coach George Karl on the bench (more on that shortly), the Nuggets lost six of their last eight road games, going 1-6-1 ATS.
In the regular-season finale, with the #2 overall seed in the Western Conference still up for grabs, the Nuggets went to Phoenix and laid a big old egg, losing 123-101 as a five-point underdog. And Denver ended March with road losses to the Knicks, Celtics (by 14 points), Magic and Mavericks (by 16 points). The Nuggets’ only road victories since March 15 came at Toronto (on a last-second, buzzer-beating shot by Carmelo Anthony, which led to a 97-96 win), and a four-point victory at Oklahoma City (and in that one, Denver was coming off three days of rest while the Thunder were coming off a heartbreaking 140-139 overtime loss at Utah – think altitude! – the previous night).
Back to George Karl. You may recall that I backed the Jazz in Game 2, and a BIG reason was because I trusted Jerry Sloan to make the necessary Game 1-to-Game 2 adjustments a LOT more than I trusted Adrian Dantley, who is filling in as Denver’s coach while Karl goes through cancer treatment. Sure enough, the Jazz raced out to a 12-point halftime lead, and when things got tight down the stretch, it was Sloan (drawing on 198 games of playoff coaching) experience and not Dantley (coaching his second playoff game EVER) who pushed the right buttons.
Now Sloan is back in his familiar environs (he’s been Utah’s coach for 19 years), and Dantley is coaching his first road playoff game. Don’t kid yourself: This is an ENORMOUS edge for the Jazz. Guys, I said it prior to Game 2 of this series: You may think coaching doesn’t matter in the NBA, and for the most part in the regular season, it doesn’t. But in the playoffs, coaches play a HUGE role, especially since most of the games are tight in the fourth quarter. And once again tonight, I look for Sloan to coach circles around Dantley.
Finally, chew on these facts: These teams now have identical 54-30 records on the season, but as noted above, the home/road discrepancy favors Utah tonight big time. So does the fact that the Jazz have one of the best pointspread records in the NBA (50-31-3), while Denver is among the worst (36-42-6). Additionally, the Jazz are on ATS runs of 32-15-3 overall, 34-15-2 as a favorite, 21-7-1 as a favorite of less than five points, 22-5-2 as a home favorite of less than five points and 6-1-1 as a playoff chalk of less than five points. On the flip side, Denver is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 overall, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight on the road (as mentioned above) and 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog.
Bottom line: The oddsmakers undervalued the Jazz in the first two games of this series (and that includes Game 1, when the Nuggets covered easily but only after that big fourth-quarter run broke open a tie game). And they’ve undervalued Utah again tonight. With the steady hand of Sloan on the bench mapping out strategy and Jazz stars Deron Williams (33 points, 14 assists in Game 2) and Carlos Boozer (20 points, 15 rebounds in Game 2) leading the charge, the Jazz win this game and win it comfortably.
Celtics
Logic says the Heat are the smart play here, being down 2-0 and in the ultimate must-win spot, while the Celtics may be feeling a little too good about themselves and are in a prime letdown spot. And that’s all true. But here’s what else is true: It’s become painfully obvious that Boston is just a bad, bad matchup for the Heat.
Going back to last March, the Celtics have won seven straight against Miami, going 5-1 ATS in the last six. Granted, five of those seven victories came in Beantown, with just two in South Beach (a 92-85 win in November and a 112-106 overtime win in January). But here’s the thing: If the Heat can’t hold a 14-point third-quarter lead on the road (as happened in Game 1, when they lost by nine) and if the Heat get outscored 44-8 with Kevin Garnett in a suit on the sidelines serving a suspension (as happened in Game 2, when they got embarrassed 106-77), then how in the world can they be laying points in ANY kind of situation against Boston?
Simply put, this is a value play on the Celtics. And while I acknowledge the possibility of a letdown here with Boston, it’s also just as likely that they’ll come out fully focused and determined to put their foot on the Heat’s neck. Don’t forget: A team with Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen is a team with a LOT of miles on their tires, and the faster they can get a playoff series over, the better. So don’t be surprised if the Celtics play with just as much urgency as Miami.
Keep this in mind, too: For some reason, Boston was actually better on the road this year (26-15) than at home (24-17). Also, the Celtics have been money in the bank as a road underdog – we’re talking 53-26-2 in their last 81 when catching points on the highway, including 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 as a playoff pup. Meanwhile, the Heat are in ATS slumps of 1-5-1 at home, 1-4-1 as a home chalk and 2-5 when laying points in the playoffs. Miami also hasn’t been a very good bounce-back team (0-4 ATS last four after a double-digit defeat).
Take the points with Boston, but I truly believe the points will be meaningless, as I see an outright upset.
1-0 yesterday for 30 dimes.. 25-25-1 PLUS 45 dimes since i started posting..he is on fire now, and is on one of his incredible streaks..i've witnessed several of these over the years. anyway here are the plays for friday.
Friday's Action
20 Dime selection for Fridayon the Utah Jazz minus the points at home. in Game 3 of their best of 7 opening-rouad series against the Nuggets. As I post this play live at approximately 11:45 a.m. Eastersn, the Jazz are giving a solid 2 1/2 poines in Las Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime selection for Fridayon the Boston Celtics plus the points on the road. in Game 3 of their best of 7 opening-rouad series against the Heat. As I post this play live at approximately 11:45 a.m. Eastersn, the Celtics are catching a solid 4 poines in Las Vegas and offshore.
Jazz
If not for one poor quarter (the fourth quarter of Game 1), the Utah Jazz would’ve escaped Denver with a 2-0 series lead. Still, the Jazz were more than happy to get the split in the first two games, especially playing without center Mehmet Okur (who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Game 1) and scoring forward Andre Kirilenko (who remains sidelined with a calf injury).
Now the Jazz take home-court advantage back to Salt Lake City for this all-important Game 3, and I’m loving Utah here, especially at this ridiculous near pick-em price. Just compare the numbers: The Jazz went 32-9 SU in Salt Lake this year, and their 26-13-2 ATS mark at home was the best in the NBA. Meanwhile, Denver was a sub-.500 road team at 19-22 SU and 15-21-5 ATS. Down the stretch, playing without coach George Karl on the bench (more on that shortly), the Nuggets lost six of their last eight road games, going 1-6-1 ATS.
In the regular-season finale, with the #2 overall seed in the Western Conference still up for grabs, the Nuggets went to Phoenix and laid a big old egg, losing 123-101 as a five-point underdog. And Denver ended March with road losses to the Knicks, Celtics (by 14 points), Magic and Mavericks (by 16 points). The Nuggets’ only road victories since March 15 came at Toronto (on a last-second, buzzer-beating shot by Carmelo Anthony, which led to a 97-96 win), and a four-point victory at Oklahoma City (and in that one, Denver was coming off three days of rest while the Thunder were coming off a heartbreaking 140-139 overtime loss at Utah – think altitude! – the previous night).
Back to George Karl. You may recall that I backed the Jazz in Game 2, and a BIG reason was because I trusted Jerry Sloan to make the necessary Game 1-to-Game 2 adjustments a LOT more than I trusted Adrian Dantley, who is filling in as Denver’s coach while Karl goes through cancer treatment. Sure enough, the Jazz raced out to a 12-point halftime lead, and when things got tight down the stretch, it was Sloan (drawing on 198 games of playoff coaching) experience and not Dantley (coaching his second playoff game EVER) who pushed the right buttons.
Now Sloan is back in his familiar environs (he’s been Utah’s coach for 19 years), and Dantley is coaching his first road playoff game. Don’t kid yourself: This is an ENORMOUS edge for the Jazz. Guys, I said it prior to Game 2 of this series: You may think coaching doesn’t matter in the NBA, and for the most part in the regular season, it doesn’t. But in the playoffs, coaches play a HUGE role, especially since most of the games are tight in the fourth quarter. And once again tonight, I look for Sloan to coach circles around Dantley.
Finally, chew on these facts: These teams now have identical 54-30 records on the season, but as noted above, the home/road discrepancy favors Utah tonight big time. So does the fact that the Jazz have one of the best pointspread records in the NBA (50-31-3), while Denver is among the worst (36-42-6). Additionally, the Jazz are on ATS runs of 32-15-3 overall, 34-15-2 as a favorite, 21-7-1 as a favorite of less than five points, 22-5-2 as a home favorite of less than five points and 6-1-1 as a playoff chalk of less than five points. On the flip side, Denver is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 overall, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight on the road (as mentioned above) and 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog.
Bottom line: The oddsmakers undervalued the Jazz in the first two games of this series (and that includes Game 1, when the Nuggets covered easily but only after that big fourth-quarter run broke open a tie game). And they’ve undervalued Utah again tonight. With the steady hand of Sloan on the bench mapping out strategy and Jazz stars Deron Williams (33 points, 14 assists in Game 2) and Carlos Boozer (20 points, 15 rebounds in Game 2) leading the charge, the Jazz win this game and win it comfortably.
Celtics
Logic says the Heat are the smart play here, being down 2-0 and in the ultimate must-win spot, while the Celtics may be feeling a little too good about themselves and are in a prime letdown spot. And that’s all true. But here’s what else is true: It’s become painfully obvious that Boston is just a bad, bad matchup for the Heat.
Going back to last March, the Celtics have won seven straight against Miami, going 5-1 ATS in the last six. Granted, five of those seven victories came in Beantown, with just two in South Beach (a 92-85 win in November and a 112-106 overtime win in January). But here’s the thing: If the Heat can’t hold a 14-point third-quarter lead on the road (as happened in Game 1, when they lost by nine) and if the Heat get outscored 44-8 with Kevin Garnett in a suit on the sidelines serving a suspension (as happened in Game 2, when they got embarrassed 106-77), then how in the world can they be laying points in ANY kind of situation against Boston?
Simply put, this is a value play on the Celtics. And while I acknowledge the possibility of a letdown here with Boston, it’s also just as likely that they’ll come out fully focused and determined to put their foot on the Heat’s neck. Don’t forget: A team with Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen is a team with a LOT of miles on their tires, and the faster they can get a playoff series over, the better. So don’t be surprised if the Celtics play with just as much urgency as Miami.
Keep this in mind, too: For some reason, Boston was actually better on the road this year (26-15) than at home (24-17). Also, the Celtics have been money in the bank as a road underdog – we’re talking 53-26-2 in their last 81 when catching points on the highway, including 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 as a playoff pup. Meanwhile, the Heat are in ATS slumps of 1-5-1 at home, 1-4-1 as a home chalk and 2-5 when laying points in the playoffs. Miami also hasn’t been a very good bounce-back team (0-4 ATS last four after a double-digit defeat).
Take the points with Boston, but I truly believe the points will be meaningless, as I see an outright upset.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
8* Heat -4
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Boston won convincingly last time out without Kevin Garnett in the lineup, but I expect a letdown from this team tonight as it travels to Miami for Game 3.
Boston is a horrible 7-20 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest; also just 8-15 ATS after a win by 10 points or more; which means that this team is highly susceptible to a letdown after a big outing.
On the other side of the court: Miami has its back against the wall and will look to win its first game of the series with the help of the home town crowd; “You’ve got to keep in perspective that a series doesn’t start until a team wins on the other team’s court, so we’ve got to come home and take care of our home court,” Dwayne Wade said. “We played well toward the end of the year at home and we should be very confident here. The crowd is going to be amazing, so we have to use that to get ourselves an edge.”
Keep in mind, Miami has actually done very well in this position; 11-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in their previous contest; which of course means, that after a sub par defensive performance, this team comes out fired up and clamps down the next time out.
Bottom line: I look for the HEAT to come out fired up in this one and to push the ball at every given opportunity; home court advantage can't be overlooked in this case.
10* Mavs / Spurs Over 193.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
Dallas will come out firing tonight and was the leagues best road team during the regular season.
It will be looking to bounce back from a rare poor shooting night; just 37%; Dirk Nowitzki will also look to get back on track after scoring 24, going 9 of 24 from the floor.
Jason Terry was dominant though; 27 points off the bench.
Keep in mind that Dallas has seen the total go "over" the number in six of its last nine on the road.
On the other side of the court: Tim Duncan has had a big two games and I expect him to continue his dominating performance in San Antonio.
Duncan had 25 points and 17 boards last time out; Manu Ginobli has also been hot and whose resurgence since the All-Star break was a big reason for the Spurs making the playoffs.
Important to point out that San Antonio has seen the total go "over" the number five of its last five in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this game; Dallas is a hot road team and won't be intimidated tonight and is looking to atone for an off shooting night; San Antonio will have to match its intensity; *10* West. Conf. "TOP TOTAL"
8* Nuggets +2.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Denver:
Denver knows it let one get away last time out; “We could have easily won the game,” acting coach Adrian Dantley said before the Nuggets’ short flight to Utah on Thursday. “We had the game down the stretch we just missed some shots and we let Derron Williams hurt us.”
I expect Carmelo Anthony to get more open looks in this game as Denver runs some different schemes.
Denver is 7-1-2 ATS its last ten vs. Utah, regardless of the location; also a perfect 6-0 ATS this year when playing with three or more days of rest.
On the other side of the court: Although they won last time out, I expect the injury bug to finally catch up to the Jazz tonight.
Utah center Mehmet Okur is out for the rest of the playoffs with a torn Achilles’ tendon he suffered in Game 1. The Jazz are also without forward Andrei Kirilenko, recovering from a strained calf and not likely to be ready before this series ends.
Utah is just 7-9 ATS this year vs. division opponents.
Bottom line: Look for DENVER to improve to 11-6 ATS its last 17 when playing the roll of underdog and for Utah to drop to 3-6 ATS its last nine overall.
8* Heat -4
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Boston won convincingly last time out without Kevin Garnett in the lineup, but I expect a letdown from this team tonight as it travels to Miami for Game 3.
Boston is a horrible 7-20 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest; also just 8-15 ATS after a win by 10 points or more; which means that this team is highly susceptible to a letdown after a big outing.
On the other side of the court: Miami has its back against the wall and will look to win its first game of the series with the help of the home town crowd; “You’ve got to keep in perspective that a series doesn’t start until a team wins on the other team’s court, so we’ve got to come home and take care of our home court,” Dwayne Wade said. “We played well toward the end of the year at home and we should be very confident here. The crowd is going to be amazing, so we have to use that to get ourselves an edge.”
Keep in mind, Miami has actually done very well in this position; 11-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in their previous contest; which of course means, that after a sub par defensive performance, this team comes out fired up and clamps down the next time out.
Bottom line: I look for the HEAT to come out fired up in this one and to push the ball at every given opportunity; home court advantage can't be overlooked in this case.
10* Mavs / Spurs Over 193.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
Dallas will come out firing tonight and was the leagues best road team during the regular season.
It will be looking to bounce back from a rare poor shooting night; just 37%; Dirk Nowitzki will also look to get back on track after scoring 24, going 9 of 24 from the floor.
Jason Terry was dominant though; 27 points off the bench.
Keep in mind that Dallas has seen the total go "over" the number in six of its last nine on the road.
On the other side of the court: Tim Duncan has had a big two games and I expect him to continue his dominating performance in San Antonio.
Duncan had 25 points and 17 boards last time out; Manu Ginobli has also been hot and whose resurgence since the All-Star break was a big reason for the Spurs making the playoffs.
Important to point out that San Antonio has seen the total go "over" the number five of its last five in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this game; Dallas is a hot road team and won't be intimidated tonight and is looking to atone for an off shooting night; San Antonio will have to match its intensity; *10* West. Conf. "TOP TOTAL"
8* Nuggets +2.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Denver:
Denver knows it let one get away last time out; “We could have easily won the game,” acting coach Adrian Dantley said before the Nuggets’ short flight to Utah on Thursday. “We had the game down the stretch we just missed some shots and we let Derron Williams hurt us.”
I expect Carmelo Anthony to get more open looks in this game as Denver runs some different schemes.
Denver is 7-1-2 ATS its last ten vs. Utah, regardless of the location; also a perfect 6-0 ATS this year when playing with three or more days of rest.
On the other side of the court: Although they won last time out, I expect the injury bug to finally catch up to the Jazz tonight.
Utah center Mehmet Okur is out for the rest of the playoffs with a torn Achilles’ tendon he suffered in Game 1. The Jazz are also without forward Andrei Kirilenko, recovering from a strained calf and not likely to be ready before this series ends.
Utah is just 7-9 ATS this year vs. division opponents.
Bottom line: Look for DENVER to improve to 11-6 ATS its last 17 when playing the roll of underdog and for Utah to drop to 3-6 ATS its last nine overall.
Joe D'Amico
Mavericks at Spurs
Pick: Spurs -3
For the battle of Texas supremacy, San Antonio took a big step in their 102-88 win in Game 2. With 25 points and 17 boards, Tim Duncan took this entire series on his back in Game 2. Outside of Forward Dirk Nowitzki, the rest of the Maverick’s looked absolutely lifeless. At 29-12 SU this season, the Spur’s are a great home team. They have a ton of post-season experience and know how important a win tonight will be. The home team is 7-3 ATS their L10 meetings. The Mav’s are 1-4 ATS their L5 as a ‘dog. The Spur’s are 8-2 ATS their L10 at home, 7-2 ATS their L9 games played on 1 days rest, and 19-8 ATS their L27 overall. The Spur’s take down the Mav’s.
Mavericks at Spurs
Pick: Spurs -3
For the battle of Texas supremacy, San Antonio took a big step in their 102-88 win in Game 2. With 25 points and 17 boards, Tim Duncan took this entire series on his back in Game 2. Outside of Forward Dirk Nowitzki, the rest of the Maverick’s looked absolutely lifeless. At 29-12 SU this season, the Spur’s are a great home team. They have a ton of post-season experience and know how important a win tonight will be. The home team is 7-3 ATS their L10 meetings. The Mav’s are 1-4 ATS their L5 as a ‘dog. The Spur’s are 8-2 ATS their L10 at home, 7-2 ATS their L9 games played on 1 days rest, and 19-8 ATS their L27 overall. The Spur’s take down the Mav’s.
MR EAST
MLB FRIDAY UNDER THE RADAR
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
3 UNITS: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS +154
Tim Lincecum continues to dominate National League hitters to the tune of an 0.90 ERA through his forst 3 starts. He has not faced this St. Louis lineup since April of 2008. It will be a challenge. The Cards are 8-3 vs righthanders on the season, and have produced 50 runs in 8 road games against them. The Giants have dropped 4 straight games, and their offense is really struggling, having produced 5 runs in their last 4 games. I'll go with St. Louis here.
MLB FRIDAY UNDER THE RADAR
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
3 UNITS: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS +154
Tim Lincecum continues to dominate National League hitters to the tune of an 0.90 ERA through his forst 3 starts. He has not faced this St. Louis lineup since April of 2008. It will be a challenge. The Cards are 8-3 vs righthanders on the season, and have produced 50 runs in 8 road games against them. The Giants have dropped 4 straight games, and their offense is really struggling, having produced 5 runs in their last 4 games. I'll go with St. Louis here.
Mike Lineback
San Antonio -3.5
Dallas had their chance to step on San Antonio's throat, but failed miserably in G#2 at home. Why? Because, when it comes right down to it, they are not able to impose their will on any playoff-type caliber opponents. Yes, they lack toughness IMO, but more importantly, they have too many scoring droughts within games & make too many mistakes on defense. Dallas will have to play their best game of season to win this game, which includes monster games from both Nowitzki & Butler, which is unlikely, and Kidd and Terry will need productive games as well. Strongly believe Spurs will key on Dirk & try to frustrate him again (no easy shots). In the end, SA gets the victory, because they are tougher, have more seasoned playmakers, play better defense, AND have HOME COURT. Not to mention, Popovich's call to bench & role players was heard loud and clear. Look for Jefferson to have another high impact game. Plus, George Hill's ankle is feeling better, and Parker is starting to play at a high level again. Take the Spurs.
San Antonio -3.5
Dallas had their chance to step on San Antonio's throat, but failed miserably in G#2 at home. Why? Because, when it comes right down to it, they are not able to impose their will on any playoff-type caliber opponents. Yes, they lack toughness IMO, but more importantly, they have too many scoring droughts within games & make too many mistakes on defense. Dallas will have to play their best game of season to win this game, which includes monster games from both Nowitzki & Butler, which is unlikely, and Kidd and Terry will need productive games as well. Strongly believe Spurs will key on Dirk & try to frustrate him again (no easy shots). In the end, SA gets the victory, because they are tougher, have more seasoned playmakers, play better defense, AND have HOME COURT. Not to mention, Popovich's call to bench & role players was heard loud and clear. Look for Jefferson to have another high impact game. Plus, George Hill's ankle is feeling better, and Parker is starting to play at a high level again. Take the Spurs.
Evan Altemus
4 Units Dallas +3.5
Dallas is just the slightly better team in this series. I normally don’t believe in the zig-zag theory with NBA playoff betting, but I feel it’s a good theory here. The Mavericks were embarrassed at home in their last game, but they get a chance for revenge here. Both of these teams are veteran loaded with tons of experience, which is why Dallas was so good and San Antonio was above .500 on the road this season. In fact, there is great value on the Mavericks here also because San Antonio is getting points for being at home, despite how well Dallas played on the road. I look for them to win this game outright to make up for being embarrassed in their last game at home. Dallas is the better overall team, and San Antonio could start to falter toward the end of this series due to their age. Look for the Mavericks to get the road win.
4 Units Dallas +3.5
Dallas is just the slightly better team in this series. I normally don’t believe in the zig-zag theory with NBA playoff betting, but I feel it’s a good theory here. The Mavericks were embarrassed at home in their last game, but they get a chance for revenge here. Both of these teams are veteran loaded with tons of experience, which is why Dallas was so good and San Antonio was above .500 on the road this season. In fact, there is great value on the Mavericks here also because San Antonio is getting points for being at home, despite how well Dallas played on the road. I look for them to win this game outright to make up for being embarrassed in their last game at home. Dallas is the better overall team, and San Antonio could start to falter toward the end of this series due to their age. Look for the Mavericks to get the road win.
Lenny Del Genio
Seattle +115
The M’s are playing good baseball winning 7 of their last 10. Their starting pitching has been very good posting a 2.66 ERA. This is without Cliff Lee who looks to be back within the week. The White Sox are off to a terrible start winning only five of their 16 games. It doesn’t look to get any better tonight as they march out Gavin Floyd. He’s looked awful so far this season posting an 0-3 team start record and a 9.00 ERA. Floyd also doesn’t pitch very well against the M’s, posting a 2-4 team start record and 8.26 ERA. Great value here with the M’s tonight. Play on Seattle.
Seattle +115
The M’s are playing good baseball winning 7 of their last 10. Their starting pitching has been very good posting a 2.66 ERA. This is without Cliff Lee who looks to be back within the week. The White Sox are off to a terrible start winning only five of their 16 games. It doesn’t look to get any better tonight as they march out Gavin Floyd. He’s looked awful so far this season posting an 0-3 team start record and a 9.00 ERA. Floyd also doesn’t pitch very well against the M’s, posting a 2-4 team start record and 8.26 ERA. Great value here with the M’s tonight. Play on Seattle.
Tony George
Yankees -135
NO WAY I am passing up a red hot Burnett as a starter for NY tonight. 2.37 ERA on the year and undefeated, with a better bullpen behind him, this one again is a no brainer. NY off a loss at Oakland will be in a bad mood and the Angels just dropped 2 straight against Detroit allowing a ton of runs. Look for NY to hit Santana with their bats and get enough run support behind a red hot pitcher tonight for a hard fought win. Play 1 Unit on NY Yankees.
Yankees -135
NO WAY I am passing up a red hot Burnett as a starter for NY tonight. 2.37 ERA on the year and undefeated, with a better bullpen behind him, this one again is a no brainer. NY off a loss at Oakland will be in a bad mood and the Angels just dropped 2 straight against Detroit allowing a ton of runs. Look for NY to hit Santana with their bats and get enough run support behind a red hot pitcher tonight for a hard fought win. Play 1 Unit on NY Yankees.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Miami -4
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Boston won convincingly last time out without Kevin Garnett in the lineup, but I expect a letdown from this team tonight as it travels to Miami for Game 3.
Boston is a horrible 7-20 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest; also just 8-15 ATS after a win by 10 points or more; which means that this team is highly susceptible to a letdown after a big outing.
On the other side of the court: Miami has its back against the wall and will look to win its first game of the series with the help of the home town crowd; “You’ve got to keep in perspective that a series doesn’t start until a team wins on the other team’s court, so we’ve got to come home and take care of our home court,” Dwayne Wade said. “We played well toward the end of the year at home and we should be very confident here. The crowd is going to be amazing, so we have to use that to get ourselves an edge.”
Keep in mind, Miami has actually done very well in this position; 11-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in their previous contest; which of course means, that after a sub par defensive performance, this team comes out fired up and clamps down the next time out.
Bottom line: I look for the HEAT to come out fired up in this one and to push the ball at every given opportunity; home court advantage can't be overlooked in this case.
Miami -4
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Boston won convincingly last time out without Kevin Garnett in the lineup, but I expect a letdown from this team tonight as it travels to Miami for Game 3.
Boston is a horrible 7-20 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest; also just 8-15 ATS after a win by 10 points or more; which means that this team is highly susceptible to a letdown after a big outing.
On the other side of the court: Miami has its back against the wall and will look to win its first game of the series with the help of the home town crowd; “You’ve got to keep in perspective that a series doesn’t start until a team wins on the other team’s court, so we’ve got to come home and take care of our home court,” Dwayne Wade said. “We played well toward the end of the year at home and we should be very confident here. The crowd is going to be amazing, so we have to use that to get ourselves an edge.”
Keep in mind, Miami has actually done very well in this position; 11-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in their previous contest; which of course means, that after a sub par defensive performance, this team comes out fired up and clamps down the next time out.
Bottom line: I look for the HEAT to come out fired up in this one and to push the ball at every given opportunity; home court advantage can't be overlooked in this case.
Bob Balfe
Miami -4
Miami played two of their worst games of the year in the first two games of the playoffs. This is still a talented Heat team and the best player on the court is Dwayne Wade. The Heat finished the season strong and I don't expect them to continue to stay on long scoring droughts, especially on their home floor. Take the Heat.
Miami -4
Miami played two of their worst games of the year in the first two games of the playoffs. This is still a talented Heat team and the best player on the court is Dwayne Wade. The Heat finished the season strong and I don't expect them to continue to stay on long scoring droughts, especially on their home floor. Take the Heat.
Prediction Machine
Key
65%+ 3X Normal Play
62% - 65% 2X Normal Play
57% - 62% Normal Play
53% - 57% Weak Play (but playable)
< 53% No Pick
Thurs: 1-1
Playoffs 6-7, -0.7units
Friday: Boston +4.5 Normal Play
Against the Spread Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference ATS Pick Opponent Line Margin Win% ATS
East Boston Celtics Miami Heat 4.5 1.7 60.1% Calc -->
West Utah Jazz Denver Nuggets (2.5) 4.9 54.5% Calc -->
West San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks (3.5) 4.6 52.3% Calc -->
Straight-Up Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Favorite Underdog Points For Points Against Win% SU
West San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks 101.4 96.8 57.4%
West Utah Jazz Denver Nuggets 111.2 106.3 56.7%
East Boston Celtics Miami Heat 92.3 90.6 50.3%
Over/Under Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Better Seed Worse Seed Line Total Points Pick Pick%
West Dallas Mavericks San Antonio Spurs 193.5 198.2 OVER 55.1% Calc -->
West Denver Nuggets Utah Jazz 216.5 217.5 OVER 54.6% Calc -->
East Boston Celtics Miami Heat 182.5 182.8 OVER 51.4% Calc -->
Key
65%+ 3X Normal Play
62% - 65% 2X Normal Play
57% - 62% Normal Play
53% - 57% Weak Play (but playable)
< 53% No Pick
Thurs: 1-1
Playoffs 6-7, -0.7units
Friday: Boston +4.5 Normal Play
Against the Spread Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference ATS Pick Opponent Line Margin Win% ATS
East Boston Celtics Miami Heat 4.5 1.7 60.1% Calc -->
West Utah Jazz Denver Nuggets (2.5) 4.9 54.5% Calc -->
West San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks (3.5) 4.6 52.3% Calc -->
Straight-Up Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Favorite Underdog Points For Points Against Win% SU
West San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks 101.4 96.8 57.4%
West Utah Jazz Denver Nuggets 111.2 106.3 56.7%
East Boston Celtics Miami Heat 92.3 90.6 50.3%
Over/Under Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Better Seed Worse Seed Line Total Points Pick Pick%
West Dallas Mavericks San Antonio Spurs 193.5 198.2 OVER 55.1% Calc -->
West Denver Nuggets Utah Jazz 216.5 217.5 OVER 54.6% Calc -->
East Boston Celtics Miami Heat 182.5 182.8 OVER 51.4% Calc -->
