The Game Inside the Game: Will Louisville go zone vs. KU?
By DAVID MALINSKY
While power ratings, trends, teams statistics and various other dynamics are integral in determining the value quotients of the pointspreads for sporting events, there comes that moment when the game begins, and it is player vs. player that connects to the scoreboard. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the key on-court matchups that will determine the Sweet 16 outcomes, the “Game Inside The Game”.
EAST REGIONAL at NEW YORK
Connecticut vs Iowa state: Post-Niang Realities
For Iowa State to advance over North Carolina on Sunday, despite just one practice session to adjust to the absence of versatile Georges Niang, was a tribute to the resiliency of Fred Hoiberg and his team. But was it not all sunshine, and instead more like a ray that was able to show between some clouds?
North Carolina was on the verge of breaking the game open, leading 76-68 with 4:00 remaining, when Marcus Paige took an ill-considered three-point attempt just eight seconds into the shot clock. This was despite the fact that the Tar Heels had scored on their previous five trips right at the basket, three layups and two tip-ins. Paige missed his shot, the Cyclones hit back-to-back three-pointers, and the momentum changed instantly.
Those three-pointers were part of a 12-26 performance from long range, and State needed every bit of that to overcome Niang’s absence. The anticipated weakness of interior defense without him was evident – North Carolina made 50 percent of its two-point attempts, including an alarming 57.7 in the second half. Hoiberg adjusted his starting lineup to include 6-8/245 Daniel Edozie, who had only played 115 minutes in 22 previous appearances, but he did not score or have an assist in 16 floor minutes, and was sitting at crunch time.
Iowa State’s defense was not good at exerting pressure this season - #308 in turnover ratio and #243 in steals. The Cyclones overcame that by guarding the basket pretty well, #73 at defending two-point attempts. Without Niang, that category suffered considerably.
Michigan State vs. Virginia: About those Spartan fouls
Assumptions can be dangerous in handicapping. Michigan State is in the Sweet 16 again so it is easy to fall back on memories of typical Tom Izzo teams. But this one is different. These Spartans are still alive because they may be the most difficult team to guard in the nation, with all five starters able to put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket, and four of them also able to pop from three-point range. When Brandon Dawson or Kenny Kaminski are on the floor instead of Branden Dawson, all five players can extend beyond the arc.
This is a contrast to the usual “lunch pail” editions that often won through grit, toughness and fundamentals. This edition is quicker and more athletic, but not as physically imposing, and brings an unexpected issue – they foul. State committed 48 more fouls than the opposition this season, leading to 88 more FT attempts for their opponents. Over the past decade, the Spartans had averaged a +56.8 in that latter category. While there is a common and proper perception that this team is peaking at the right time, the foul issue lingers. In the final game of the regular season the Spartans committed 10 more fouls than Ohio State, and lost the made free throw count by the same number. In five post-season games they are -16 in fouls, and despite winning each time they have been out-scored by 22 points at the charity stripe.
This is indeed a very good team, but for different reasons than in the past, and that needs to be incorporated into your thought processes.
MIDWEST REGIONAL at INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee vs. Michigan: The “Outside” Size
You will read much about the projected “Battle of the Boards” between these teams, and the matchup in the paint is indeed intriguing – Tennessee’s Jeronne Maymon and Jarnell Stokes out-weigh Michigan starters Jordan Morgan and Glenn Robinson III by 50 pounds. With the Vols having beaten their first three tourney opponents by +41 off the glass, there is an anticipation of a decisive win in that category once again. But there is another size issue that may also matter.
A John Beilein offense can be a thing of beauty for a basketball purist to watch, and when the tactics are combined with talent it can lead to something special - #1 in the nation in offensive efficiency in making it to the finals last year, and #3 this season. The requisite metrics are there across the board, with the added element of four 6-6 players, Robinson, Nick Stauskas, Caris LeVert and Zak Irvin, that are all able to shoot with accuracy from long range. There are not many teams that can defend that kind of size on the perimeter.
On paper, perhaps Tennessee can. The Vols have size and athleticism on the wings in 6-6 Jordan McRae and 6-6 Josh Richardson, while 6-2 Antonio Barton holds a slight edge in stature vs. 6-1 Derrick Walton in the PG matchup (and moreso over 5-11 Spike Albrecht). The question is whether or not they have the patience and basketball smarts – despite those wingspans they were only slightly above average at defending the arc, allowing 33.8 percent. Is the patience there to guard deep into the shot clock vs. an offense that is #313 in average length of possession?
Kentucky vs. Louisville: To Zone, or Not to Zone
Rick Pitino is 11-0 in Sweet 16 games, a tribute to his ability to develop game plans when given several days to prepare. It often leads to wrinkles in the way that the Cardinals play, and the early focus point when watching this one is how he adjusts to the “pick your poison” aspect of staying in their 2-3 zone. With so much quickness on the perimeter they have done an excellent job of getting out to three-point shooters, allowing just 28.6 percent, #2 in the nation. And in terms of first-shot offense, that can be an ideal way to defend a Kentucky attack that has struggled from the perimeter.
But will a Wildcat possession end when a jump shot clangs off the rim, or is it only a continuation? That is when it becomes “game on” in this matchup. As good as the Louisville zone can be at causing misses, that same zone makes it difficult to box out on the boards. Add in the size differential between these starting lineups (17 inches), and it is even more of an issue. For the season Kentucky finished #2 in the nation in offensive rebounding, re-starting a possession 42 percent of the time. Meanwhile the Cardinals were only #230 at clearing the defensive glass.
When Kentucky won 73-66 in the earlier matchup between these two at Rupp Arena, the Wildcats grabbed 41.5 percent of the available offensive rebounds. And note a couple of caveats – Julius Randle sat out most of the second half because of leg cramps, after scoring 17 points before intermission, while the Cardinals also still had Chane Behanan (seven rebounds in 20 minutes) on the roster. Those caroms helped lead to 42 points in the paint. Now it is adjustment time, and we will see Pitino literally play out the Cards he has been dealt.
w-thumbs!^
