Service Plays Friday 2/7/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Most popular 2014 Winter Olympic bets
by Jason Logan

The 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games officially get underway Friday, but online sportsbooks have been taking wagers on the Winter Games for some time now.

With the event fields locked in, and more and more information coming out on current conditions and form, betting action on Sochi 2014 is heating up. We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about the most popular plays for Olympic bettors.

Alpine Skiing

Men’s Downhill Outright

Aksel Lund Svindal is the biggest name in alpine skiing, and heads into his events among the favorites – if not the overall chalk. The defending Gold Medal winner is set at +160 to repeat in the men’s downhill, and has drawn the most action from bettors so far.

Erik Guay is a bit of a wild card for bettors. The Canadian has been discounted to +900 due to his recent knee surgery but could provide solid underdog value in the men’s downhill.

“Given his shortened season recovering from knee surgery, he’s done what he’s needed to get to the Olympics,” says Black. “But if fit, as he is supposed to be, he’s always a threat for the podium at least. The bulk of the action comes from Canadian support.”

Cross Country Skiing

15 km Interval Classic

This event is a lot more wide open than most, with defending Swiss gold medalist Dario Cologna and Russian Alexey Poltaranin topping the board at +400. Cologna is coming off injury, keeping bettors cautious, and more of the early action has been on the home-country hopeful.

Black says one of the biggest line adjustments for this event was the price on Swedish skier Johan Olsson, who opened +500 but watch his price jump to as high as +1,400, due to injury concerns and recent poor results. Olsson took two bronze and was part of the gold-medal winner 4x10 km relay team in Vancouver 2010.

4x10 km Mix Relay

Norway is king when it comes to cross country skiing with the men’s and women’s side both among the medal favorites in most event. The men’s team is priced as a -250 fave to win the 4x10-km Mix Relay, but that price hasn’t scared off bettors.

“One of the bankers of the games for many punters will be the men’s team from Norway,” says Black. "They’re a very much justified -250, with three of the top four - first, second, fourth - and another member is ninth in the overall rankings being part of the team.”

Luge

Men’s Singles

You haven’t wagered until you’ve wagered on people flying down an ice track at speeds of up to 140 km per hour. However, due to the tragic death of a luger in Vancouver 2010, the Sochi course has taken extra precautions to slow down competitors.

Defending gold medal winner, Germany’s Felix Loch, has grabbed the overwhelming support of bettors, with his odds to repeat at -200. The Germans have dominated the Olympic luge and oddsmakers see that trend continuing at Sochi.

Women’s Singles

Germany’s Natalie Geisenberger is about as close to a sure thing at the Olympic Games as there is, and books have her priced as such. The 2013 World Champion, who took bronze in Vancouver, has the highest price tag of any Olympic bet at -800.

“It’s pretty much if she finishes the course she should win,” says Black. “She’s one of the most dominant athletes in world sport this year. The German luge star was a bronze medalist in the last Olympics, but is the defending World Champ and has seven wins this season.”

Snowboarding

Men’s Halfpipe

The biggest name in snowboarding, USA’s Shaun White, is a -250 favorite to defend his Olympic gold medal from 2010 in the halfpipe. However, the “Flying Tomato” made waves this week when he withdrew from the slopestyle event after injuring his wrist. Could that injury open the door for value on the rest of the halfpipe field?

“He’s a worthy favorite, but depending on how his wrist holds up, he may struggle with any falls,” says Black. “He has very good competition, regardless of any injury, in “I-Pod” Iouri Podladthcikov (+550) and Danny Davis (+600). With the popularity of snowboarding in numerous countries, it will be one of the more popular viewing events.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Norway favorite to win most gold

With the 2014 Winter Olympics starting, Norway is currently favored to win the most gold.

Norway finished tied for third in gold medal count at the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver. Since 1968, Norway is the all-time leader in gold and total medal counts in Olympic Winter games.

According to Bet365:

Norway +110
USA +250
Germany +800
Canada +800
Russia +1000
Austria +4000
South Korea +4000
China +5000
France +6600
Switzerland +6600
Sweden +6600
Finland +10,000
Netherlands +10,000
Czech Republic +10,000

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Points prevail when NBA’s best offense meets best defense

If we learned anything about sports from Seattle’s demolishing of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII it’s that – more often than not - a great defense wins out over a great offense.

And while this is still often the case when it comes to the NBA, there’s a little twist to the story.

That’s because while the defensive team seems to win more often, they do so by ramping it up on the offensive end rather than locking it down defensively.

NBA bettors get that clash of contrasting styles when the Portland Trail Blazers and their league-best offense (107.7 points per game) visit the NBA’s premier defensive team (90.2 points allowed per game), the Indiana Pacers Friday night. Oddsmakers have set the Pacers as 5.5-point home favorites with the total at 195.

Over the last five seasons, the top defensive team has won seven of 12 meetings straight up. And when taking the four 2012-13 meetings between an extra-slow tempo Memphis Grizzlies and high-scoring Denver Nuggets out of the equation, the Over has hit in six of eight games between the best offense and best defense.

The reason for this comes down to tempo, the players’ desire to come out and run the floor, and to put the ball in the hoop. Take this season’s first meeting between the Trail Blazers and Pacers on December 2. The Pacers, who average a disciplined 80 shot attempts per game, threw up 88 attempts in a 106-102 loss and blew away the 191.5-point total.

The same held true in a 2009-2010 Charlotte Bobcats’ win over the Phoenix Suns when the team’s held respective top defense and best offense tags. That season, Charlotte made the playoffs by playing a stifling, athletic defense. But, in this game, the Bobcats won by scoring 125 points on 46-of-91 shooting - well above their season averages of 95.3 points on 76.9 attempts.

Further adding to the trend is that rarely is a good offensive team strong on the other end of the floor. For example, this year’s Blazers squad is only 26th in the league defensively.

The run-and-gun Nuggets, the league’s best offensive team from 2010 to 2013, were never better than 21st and never allowed less than 100 points per game. As for the prolific Phoenix Suns that wowed NBA fans in the last half of the last decade, they were 26th defensively in 2009-2010 and 27th the year prior.

Portland and Indiana have nearly mirror images Over/Under records heading into Friday, with the Pacers going 19-28-1 O/U and the Trail Blazers posting a 30-18-1 O/U mark. Contrary to the current Over trend between the best offensive and defensive clubs, these two teams have played Under the number in five of their last seven meetings.

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -126 over Phoenix
(System Record: 66-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 66-49-1

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Denver Nuggets PK over NY Knicks
(System Record: 44-5, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 44-55-2

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Estudiantes LP + Arsenal de Sarandi UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 521-18, won last game)
Overall Record: 521-448-75

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Pacers won four of their last five games.
-- Thunder won 12 of their last 13 games (10-3 vs spread).
-- Wizards are 4-1 vs spread in game following last five losses.
-- Boston/Sacramento both won last two games; Kings lost last four road games (3-1-1 vs spread last five).
-- Nets won 12 of their last 16 games (11-5 vs spread).
-- Nuggets won four of their last six games.
-- Mavericks won four of their last five games.
-- New Orleans won five of its last seven games.
-- Toronto covered seven of its last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Portland lost four of its last five road games.
-- Magic lost five of their last seven games.
-- Lakers/76ers both lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Cavaliers lost their last six games (0-6 vs spread).
-- Pistons lost six of their last eight games.
-- New York lost last three games, by 15-4-3 points.
-- Jazz lost five of their last seven games.
-- Minnesota lost three of its last four games.
-- Clippers lost three of their last four games.

Series records
-- Home team won last seven Portland-Indiana games.
-- Thunder won last five games vs Orlando (0-3 vs spread last three).
-- Lakers lost three of last four games with Philadelphia.
-- Cavaliers won four of last five games with Washington.
-- Kings lost last four visits to Boston, three by 18+ points.
-- Pistons are 2-0 vs Brooklyn this year, winning by 12-4 points.
-- Knicks lost seven of last ten games with Denver.
-- Mavericks won nine of last twelve games with Utah.
-- Pelicans lost last four games with Minnesota, three by 12+ points.
-- Clippers won four of last five games with Toronto.

Totals
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Portland games.
-- Five of last seven Orlando games stayed under.
-- Ten of last twelve Laker games went over total.
-- Eight of last nine Cavalier-Wizard games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Sacramento games stayed under.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Brooklyn games.
-- Five of last six Denver-New York games went over.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Utah games.
-- Five of last six Minnesota-New Orleans games went over.
-- Over is 15-9 in Clipper home games this season.

Back to backs
-- Nets are 4-2 vs spread on road if they played night before.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Edmonton won five of its last six games.
-- Pittsburgh won six of its last eight games. Rangers won four of their last five.
-- Hurricanes won five of their last seven games.
-- Blackhawks won three of their last four games.
-- Blue Jackets won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- Devils lost four of last five games; their last three all ended in OT.
-- Panthers lost four of their last five games.
-- Phoenix lost three of its last five home games.
-- Sharks lost four of their last six games.

Totals
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four New Jersey games.
-- Seven of last ten Ranger games stayed under.
-- Last four Carolina games stayed under total.
-- Last four Phoenix games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine San Jose games.

Series records
-- Devils are 4-3 in their last seven games with Edmonton.
-- Rangers lost ten of last twelve games with Pittsburgh.
-- Panthers lost three of last four games with Carolina.
-- Coyotes lost four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Sharks lost their last four games with Columbus.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Crusher
Denver Nuggets PK over NY Knicks
(System Record: 44-5, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 44-55-2

Rest of the Plays
Orlando Magic + Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 201.5
Detroit Pistons -3 over Brooklyn Nets
Indiana Pacers + Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 198

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -126 over Phoenix
(System Record: 66-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 66-49-1

Rest of the Plays
Carolina Hurricanes -165 over Florida
New Jersey Devils -165 over Edmonton
Pittsburgh Penguins + New York Rangers OVER 5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play FRI Princeton -8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Friday

Oklahoma City -9

Wizards -9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Friday, February 7

Princeton was supposed to challenge Harvard for Ivy title, but they lost first three Ivy games, by 6 or less points or in OT, all on road, so thats over, since there is no conference tourney here. Columbia lost last two games, by 10-8 points, both on road. Tigers won last eight games with Columbia, winning last four here by 10-5-11-6 points. Ivy League home favorites of 7+ points are 2-4 vs spread.

Home side won Yale's first four Ivy games; Bulldogs lost at Brown by 17 in only road game. Bruins won 12 of last 14 games with Dartmouth, with 71-62 loss here LY ending 3-game win streak in this gym. Green is 2-2 in Ivy after sweeping Penn/Princeton at home last week; they force turnovers 25.4% of time in Ivy games. Ivy League home teams are 4-0 in games where spread was 5 or less points.

Harvard is 4-0 in Ivy, with three wins by 16+; they won at Dartmouth by 30 in only road games. Crimson won its last eight games with Brown, winning last five here by 1-20-7-27-7 points. Home side won all four of Brown's Ivy games; Bruins lost by 7 at Yale in only road game. Harvard has made a ridiculous 54.5% of 3's in league games. Ivy League double digit home favorites are 2-3 vs spread.

Cornell is 0-17 vs D-I teams, losing its four Ivy games by 10-16-12-4 points; Big Red is making 26.5% of its 3's in league play. Penn lost last two games on road; they upset Princeton in OT in their only home game. Quakers won three of last four games with Cornell, with wins by 12-7-8 points. Penn has made an amazingly bad 21.8% of its 3's in league. Ivy League home favorites of 7+ points are 2-4 vs spread.

Villanova made 12-23 from arc in 83-67 (-8) win at Seton Hall on Jan 8; Wildcats are 11-1 in last 12 series games, winning last five here by 21-9-2-10-8 points. Villanova is 3-1 as home favorite, winning home games by 30-26-23 points, with loss to Creighton. Seton Hall is 5-0 as a Big East road dog, with three of five games decided by 1 point. Big East double digit home favorites are 5-3 vs spread.

Road team is 6-2 vs spread in Charlotte's C-USA games; 49ers lost last three road games, by 8-20-2 points- they're turning ball over 21.9% of time, last in 16-team league. Tulane covered three of last four games, but three of its last four C-USA losses are by 26+ points. Green Wave holds teams to 28.4% from arc, #2 in league. C-USA home underdogs of less than 5 points are 5-3 vs spread.

Creighton (-10.5) was 11-21 from arc in 81-62 win at DePaul Jan 7, but game was just 37-32 at half; Bluejays are 3-2 as home favorites, winning Big East home games by 18-6-28-13-3 points. Blue Demons lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread); they're 3-2 as road dogs, losing road games by 7-10-5-26-22 points. Last time DePaul covered was Jan 14 against St John's. Big East double digit home favorites are 5-3 vs spread.

Valparaiso was 36-44 from foul line on road in 78-70 (+2) win at Detroit Jan 15, Crusaders' 7th win in last nine series games. Valpo won/covered five of last six games, is 3-1 as Horizon favorite, winning home games by 15-13-15, with loss to Wright State. Detroit is 2-2 as Horizon road dog, losing away games by 10-14-10 points, with win at Milwaukee. Horizon home favorites of 8+ points are 6-5 vs spread.

Marshall won three of last four games with Southern Miss, upsetting the Golden Eagles at home LY after losing 103-46 here. Herd is 0-3 as a dog this season, losing those league games by 10-17-21 points. Eagles won, covered six of seven league games; they're 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 22-9-31 points in Hattiesburg. C-USA double digit home favorites are 11-4 against the spread.

Monmouth (-4) beat Fairfield 63-60 in first meeting Jan 23; they trailed by 8 with 9:37 left. Hawks are 5-1 as MAAC road dogs, losing games on foreign soil by 9-20-9-6-2 points, with win at Niagara. Stags are 1-11 in league, 1-5 at home; they're 0-3 as MAAC favorites, losing at home by 11-1-4-8-26 points. MAAC home favorites of less than 3 points are 5-2 vs spread. Hawks are last in MAAC, making just 62.6% of foul shots.

Siena (-4.5) beat St Peter's 64-47 at home Jan 23, in brickfest where the Peacocks were 5-15 on line and teams combined to miss 23 of 28 from arc. Peacocks lost last five games (0-5 vs spread); they're 1-4 at home in league, with only win an upset of Quinnipiac. Siena won three of last four games; they've lost five of last seven vs St Peter's. MAAC home teams are 8-5 vs spread in games with spread of less than 3 points.

Canisius won seven of last eight games; they're 5-1 as home favorites in MAAC, with five of six wins by 13+ points. Griffins lost three of last four games with Manhattan, but beat Jaspers here in two of last three meetings. Manhattan lost last three road games by 5-4-12 points; this is only second time this year they're an underdog in league play. MAAC home favorites of less than 3 points are 5-2 vs spread.

Iona made 14-26 from arc in 118-92 win over Niagara (-12) at home Jan 4; Gaels scored a ridiculous 1.53 ppp that game, have won/covered last five games- they're 4-1 on MAAC roiad, with only loss at Quinnipiac. Niagara lost eight of last ten games; they're 2-3 at home in MAAC, with losses by 13-11-12 points. Iona makes 41.5% of 3's, Niagara is making just 30%. MAAC home underdogs are 5-10 against spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Trail Blazers at Pacers

Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers (-5.5, 195)

If the Portland Trail Blazers thought their offensive struggles were bad in their previous four games, they could be in for a jarring surprise Friday night as they visit the Indiana Pacers in a meeting between the NBA's top offense and No. 1 defense. The Trail Blazers have been the class of the NBA in the scoring department, but have failed to crack 95 points in three of their last four games. Indiana will provide a stiff test, allowing a league-low 90.2 points per game.

The Blazers didn't need to reach their 107.7-points-per-game average in their last encounter, doing just enough to slip past the host New York Knicks 94-90. Nicolas Batum's 20 points and 10 rebounds made the difference on a night where fringe MVP candidate LaMarcus Aldridge struggled with his shot and the Portland bench shot just 5-of-16 from the floor. Indiana has won three straight games and is a league-best 23-2 at Bankers Life Stadium so far.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN, CSNW (Portland), FSIN (Indiana)

LINE HISTORY: The Pacers opened at -5.5 and have climbed to -6 at some books. The total has moved from 197 to 195.
POWER RANKINGS: Portland (-10.0) - Indiana (-14.0) + Home court (-3.0) = Indiana -7

INJURY WATCH: Pacers - Lance Stephenson (Back - Questionable). Trail Blazers - None

WHY BET PORTLAND (35-14 SU, 26-23 ATS, 30-18-1 O/U): Even the most casual NBA fan will recognize Portland point guard Damian Lillard as one of the most versatile at his position. He'll get a chance to show just how varied his skills are when he participates in what will be the busiest All-Star Weekend in league history. In addition to taking part in the All-Star Game, the rookie/sophomore and the skills challenge, Lillard has confirmed participation in the dunk contest and will also take part in the 3-point shootout.

WHY BET INDIANA (38-10 SU, 31-17 ATS, 19-28-1 O/U): Indiana star Paul George will join Lillard in the dunk competition, but not everyone is happy about his participation. Teammate Roy Hibbert, who will also suit up for the Eastern Conference in the All-Star Game, doesn't think George should bother with the contest. "I don't think Paul should do it, to tell you the truth," Hibbert told the Indianapolis Star. "He's doing the stuff in the games to show why he could've won it two years ago. I think he's been there/done that."

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
* Trail Blazers are 5-14 ATS in the last 19 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 53 percent of bets are on the Pacers -5.5 while 54 percent are on the Under 195.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Seton Hall +12.5
Valparaiso -8
Manhattan +2.5

 

[Sheeky]

Keith "money man" Richards

25 Dime Selection is on Canisius over Manhattan

 

[imthatguy]

CHRIS JORDAN

300* Canisius

 

[arlo-booner]

CHRIS JORDAN

300* Canisius

Do you have any records on Chris Jordan?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Seton Hall at Villanova

The Pirates head to Villanova tonight to face a Wildcats team that is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games. Villanova is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-12 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 7 Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST

Game 821-822: Columbia at Princeton (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 57.064; Princeton 58.177 Dunkel Line: Princeton by 1 Vegas Line: Princeton by 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Columbia (+8 1/2)

Game 823-824: Yale at Dartmouth (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Yale 52.513; Dartmouth 49.013 Dunkel Line: Yale by 3 1/2 Vegas Line: Yale by 1 Dunkel Pick: Yale (-1)

Game 825-826: Brown at Harvard (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brown 48.775; Harvard 65.791 Dunkel Line: Harvard by 18; 120 Vegas Line: Harvard by 16; 128 Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-16); Under

Game 827-828: Cornell at Pennsylvania (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 37.165; Pennsylvania 53.652 Dunkel Line: Pennsylvania by 15 1/2 Vegas Line: Pennsylvania by 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (-9 1/2)

Game 829-830: Seton Hall at Villanova (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 60.965; Villanova 75.795 Dunkel Line: Villanova by 15; 152 Vegas Line: Villanova by 12 1/2; 145 Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-12 1/2); Over

Game 831-832: Charlotte at Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 52.282; Tulane 54.640 Dunkel Line: Tulane by 2 1/2 Vegas Line: Charlotte by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+3 1/2)

Game 833-834: DePaul at Creighton (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 55.735; Creighton 80.924 Dunkel Line: Creighton by 25; 150 Vegas Line: Creighton by 20; 146 Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-20); Over

Game 835-836: Detroit at Valparaiso (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 53.096; Valparaiso 57.104 Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 4; 131 Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 8; 138 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+8); Under

Game 837-838: Marshall at Southern Mississippi (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 49.500; Southern Mississippi 65.975 Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 16 1/2 Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 18 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+18 1/2)

Game 839-840: Monmouth at Fairfield (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 49.132; Fairfield 49.336 Dunkel Line: Even Vegas Line: Fairfield by 2 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+2 1/2)

Game 841-842: Siena at St. Peter's (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Siena 52.542; St. Peter's 49.388 Dunkel Line: Siena by 3 Vegas Line: Pick Dunkel Pick: Siena

Game 843-844: Manhattan at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 58.318; Canisius 58.728 Dunkel Line: Even Vegas Line: Canisius by 3 Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+3)

Game 845-846: Iona at Niagara (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Iona 56.758; Niagara 51.328 Dunkel Line: Iona by 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Iona by 8 Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+8)