Mike Hook | CBB Sides Fri, 02/05/10 - 7:30 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 835 St. Peter's 6.0 (-110) BetUS vs 836 Fairfield
Analysis: I'm riding the Peacocks yet again toŒnight. I like the makeup of this St. Peters team, and it's no surprise that i'm backing them again. St. Peters has a few MANDATORY charecteristics i look for when backing a team multiple times in a season. They are very well coached, making them quite disciplined. They are a hungry team, that is quietly making a name for themselves. This specific situation leaves us in the enviable position of backing a team that is truly better than the public perception that they are saddled with. Lastly, they play great team defense, which makes them a very gritty team that NEVER gives up.
St. Peters will need all of these factors and more when they play Fairfield tonight. Fairfield is a good team, as they are 15-7 on the season, including an 8-4 record. Fairfield also OWNS St. Peters, as they've won the past 9 meetings against the Peacocks. In fact, Fairfield has already beaten St Peters this season, 61-48 IN St. Peters home gym. So you might be asking yourself what the heck am i doing backing St. Peters tonight. Valid question, and i hope the following helps you understand why.
Despite having the better overall record, the bigger named school, and playing at home, this line ONLY opened at -5.5 for Fairfield. The -5.5 number is only one of the shadiest opening lines in all of sports, and certainly right at the top in Basketball. This opening line quickly got my attention. But as i dug deeper into this game, i see some terrible things happening with this Fairfield team. First off, they think they are far better than they really are. And i can even argue that they really aren't that good, as they are only 6-10 ATS this season. Fairfield has played 7 games at home this season that featured betting lines. ALL 7 times they lost ATS. That's right, 0-7 at home. 6 of those 7 games they were the listed favorite, and all 6 times they LOST ATS. So now i must ask you is Farfield that good, or are people just not realizing that this team is vastly overrated with regards to the betting line?? As mentioned earlier, this Fairfield team thinks they are far better than they really are. This team isn't playing defense, as evident by their 88 points they allowed Rider to score in their last game. Those 88 points they allowed to Rider is only the tip of the iceberg at home for Fairfield. In their 3 home games prior to that they allowed 74, 81, and 85 points respectively. I believe this team Stags team is playing with a sense of entitlement, that's simply not deserved.
St. Peters is just the absolute complete opposite of Fairfield. This Peacocks team works for every bit of success that they earn. This is a gritty team that is on the rise, and is plenty hungry along the way. St. Peters relishes the underdog role, especially in league play. This season alone they are 5-1 ATS as the listed underdog in league play. Better yet, the past 3 times they were the listed underdog on the road in league play, they won the game OUTRIGHT. +4.5, +10.5, and +6 were the last 3 lines they faced on the road, with all 3 ending up as OUTRIGHT wins. So why should they fear Fairfield today? They shouldn't, because the Peacocks are playing the better basketball right now. Over their past 11 games, St. Peters has only lost to 2 teams. They've lost to league power Sienna, which is no shame considering Sienna hasn't lost to anyone in league play. Their only other loss was a bad loss at Manhattan. However, St. Peters avenged that loss in their last game, as they beat Manhattan 72-44. Speaking of avenging losses, i know the Peacocks would like nothing more than to beat Fairfield on their home court tonight. These two teams squared off on December 6th, and let's just say alot has changed since then. St. Peters is a much improved team, and they will show that tonight. Call it a hunch, but i think St. Peters will make more than 15 field goals tonight, as opposed to what they did in the first meeting. St. Peters shot the ball terribly