STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NBA REPORT
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 2/27/15 National Basketball Association Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational and Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Betting News & Notes – Week #18
The sports foundation of the city of Chicago was rocked to its core on Tuesday night when the news surfaced that three-time All-Star point guard Derrick Rose would likely miss the remainder of the 2014-2015 season with a medial meniscus tear in his right knee. Almost instantaneously, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas adjusted its National Basketball Association title odds to reflect the loss of Rose, moving the Bulls from 8/1 to win the championship to 20/1. The injury to Rose is just the latest in a wave of ailments to plague some of the league’s brightest superstars.
Miami power forward Chris Bosh was recently diagnosed with blood clots in his lungs that could keep the two-time champion away from American Airlines Arena for the rest the year, while Oklahoma City small forward Kevin Durant is out indefinitely after undergoing a procedure to replace a screw in his foot that was seriously ailing the six-time All-Star. On the flip side, the Portland Trail Blazers were more than ecstatic to welcome LaMarcus Aldridge back to the starting lineup Wednesday night for the team’s marquee showdown with the San Antonio Spurs after the power forward missed Sunday’s game against Memphis with a right thumb sprain.
Injuries to NBA superstars, major or minor, tend to have a significant effect on both the pointspread and total. For example, the Bulls opened offshore on Tuesday afternoon as a 9-point favorite for Wednesday night’s home date with the Charlotte Hornets before the Rose announcement forced an adjustment all the way to Chicago -6.5. The key for gamblers, however, is to determine whether the line movement in these situations is an overreaction to the injury news or an accurate reflection of the updated market. “Players are evaluated on not only what they mean to their team but what the makeup of the other personnel on the team is,” Johnny Avello, Executive Director of Race & Sports at the Wynn Las Vegas told us here at StatSystemsSports.net.
“If Kevin Durant is out, Russell Westbrook becomes more of the offensive show and guys like D.J. Augustin and Dion Waiters can pick up the slack. Therefore, Durant may only be worth three points to the line, whereas an injury to Chris Bosh may be worth as many as five points because of what’s surrounding him.” Of course, bettors must first take into account whether or not the injury news they have discovered is still flying below the radar or already accounted for. “If bettors find out that a player is out before we do, we’ll definitely see a bet,” said Avello. “If we get the information first, the line is adjusted and it usually means slower action on that specific game.”
Take for example the January 5th, 2012 matchup that saw the Miami Heat travel to Atlanta for a showdown with Josh Smith and the Hawks. Miami opened in the neighborhood of a 6-point favorite, but a few hours before tipoff it was announced that LeBron James and Dwayne Wade would not play for the Heat in order to catch up on some much-needed rest. The subsequent announcement that two-thirds of the “Big Three” would not suit up that evening triggered an overreaction by the betting public, which drove the price of the game down to a closing line of Miami -1. The final result? Chris Bosh and the Heat prevailed 116-109 in overtime. Will the same type of overreaction take place to the aforementioned teams that have lost superstar talent for the foreseeable future?
•Chicago Bulls: While the loss of Rose serves as a devastating blow to Chicago’s title chances, it’s worth noting that this situation is nothing new for head coach Tom Thibodeau and the Bulls. Rose appeared in just 21.3 percent of Chicago’s regular season contests in the three seasons prior to this year, with the Bulls covering the number in just 48 percent of those contests without Rose (87-94) and 59.1 percent with their star point guard (29-20). During the 2012-2013 campaign that Rose missed in its entirety, Chicago went 36-46 ATS during the regular season. The Bulls may be in familiar territory here with Rose out of the lineup, but that doesn’t mean they’ll find a way to cover the spread on a consistently profitable basis.
•Oklahoma City Thunder: The best time to ride the Thunder may be when Durant is out of the lineup thanks to the overreaction that takes place on behalf of the betting market. When the OKC star missed the first 17 games of the season his team still managed to post a 9-7-1 mark against the spread. However, since Durant has been back in action, the Thunder have gone just 19-20-1 ATS. That isn’t a huge discrepancy, but it speaks to how good of a team this can be with Russell Westbrook running the show on his own.
•Miami Heat: In the 44 games the Heat have played with Chris Bosh on the floor this season, the team is averaging 96.4 points per game while surrendering an average of 96.0 points for a grand total of 192.4 points per contest. In the 12 games Miami has taken the court without Bosh, the club is averaging 92.7 points per game while permitting an average of 96.8 points per game for a grand point scoring total of 189.5 points per contest. Defensively, this team is giving up just .8 points per game more without Bosh in the lineup, but offensively the Heat are scoring 3.7 fewer points per outing. That indicates a Bosh-less lineup would be more inclined to go Under the total while at the same time struggling to cover the number as a favorite.
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Inside the Paint – Friday
•Hot Teams
-- Cavaliers won four in row, 18 of last 20 games (8-3 last 11 AF). Pacers won six of their last eight games (5-1 last six HU).
-- Pistons are 6-4 in their last ten games (4-1 last five HF).
-- Orlando won three of last four games, are 6-2-1 vs. spread in last nine. Atlanta won 24 of its last 28 games (2-5 last seven HF).
-- Warriors won five of their last seven games (4-2 AU).
-- Celtics won seven of last nine games (3-0 last three HF).
-- Memphis won 12 of its last 15 games (8-3 last 11 HF).
-- Rockets won/covered their last three games (6-1-1 last eight HF).
-- Miami won three of its last four games (5-1 AF). Pelicans won their last three games (8-2 HU).
-- Minnesota is 5-3 in its last eight games (10-3 last 13 AU). Chicago is 6-2 in its last eight games (2-5 last seven HF).
-- Jazz won four of their last six games (0-0 AF).
-- Kings are 2-1 with Karl as coach, 2-0 at home (5-2 last seven HU).
-- Bucks won ten of their last thirteen games (5-0 AF).
-- Thunder won seven of their last eight games (2-9 last 11 AU). Blazers won five of their last six games (3-1 last four HF).
•Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost last five games (6-1 last seven HU). Washington lost five in row, 10 of last 12 games (2-7 last nine AF).
-- Knicks lost their last eight games (0-5 vs. spread in last five).
-- Toronto lost its last three games (4-10 last 14 HF).
-- Hornets lost five of last six games (7-1 last eight AU).
-- Clippers are 5-7 in their last 12 games (4-8 AU).
-- Nets lost four of their last six games (3-4 last seven AU).
-- Denver lost ten of its last eleven games (2-6 last eight HU).
-- Spurs are 0-4 since All-Star break (1-5 last six AF).
-- Lakers lost nine of their last eleven games, but won last two (3-1 last four HU).
•Totals
-- Six of last seven Washington road games stayed under six of last eight Philly games went over.
-- Last three Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven New York road games stayed under.
-- 10 of last 13 Orlando games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Golden State road games stayed under.
-- Last five Charlotte road games stayed under total; seven of last nine Boston games went over.
-- Last seven Memphis home games stayed under.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Houston home games.
-- Seven of last eight New Orleans home games went over.
-- Five of last seven Chicago home games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Utah games stayed under total.
-- 13 of last 16 San Antonio road games stayed under.
-- Last four Lakers home games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Portland home games.
•Series Records
-- 76ers lost their last four games with Washington.
-- Pacers won 15 of last 18 games with Cleveland.
-- Knicks lost four of last five games with Detroit.
-- Hawks won 13 of last 16 games with Orlando.
-- Warriors won four of last five games with Toronto.
-- Hornets are 5-3 in last eight games with Boston.
-- Clippers lost eight of last nine games with Memphis.
-- Rockets won 11 of last 12 games with Brooklyn.
-- Heat lost last two games with New Orleans, after winning previous five series games.
-- Bulls won nine of last ten games with Minnesota.
-- Nuggets won five of last seven games with Utah.
-- Spurs won 20 of last 22 games with Sacramento.
-- Lakers lost six of last seven games with Milwaukee.
-- Thunder lost four of last six games with Portland.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Cleveland is 6-9 if they played night before, 5-5 on road.
-- Golden State is 5-5 if they played night before, 2-1 if they lost.
-- Thunder is 8-3-1 vs. spread if they played night before.
•East vs. West
-- SU: West 181-124 ATS: West 155-147-3
-- East teams HF vs. West: 42-40
-- East teams HU vs. West: 34-39
-- West teams HF vs. East: 61-60-3
-- West teams HU vs. East: 15-13
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- NEW YORK is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season.
The average score was NEW YORK 90.3, OPPONENT 102.1.
--PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 85.6, OPPONENT 95.6.
--DETROIT is 1-15 (-19.5 Units) against the money line off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 98.6, OPPONENT 107.6.
--UTAH is 14-4 (+9.6 Units) against the 1rst half line revenging a home loss versus opponent this season.
The average score was UTAH 47.4, OPPONENT 46.7.
--BOSTON is 24-6 UNDER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.
The average score was BOSTON 47.8, OPPONENT 48.0.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
--ATLANTA is 33-12 ATS (+19.8 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 102.6, OPPONENT 95.9.
--DENVER is 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season.
The average score was DENVER 96.9, OPPONENT 101.0.
--PORTLAND is 24-5 (+20.6 Units) against the money line versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 103.1, OPPONENT 96.2.
--HOUSTON is 24-8 (+15.2 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 54.2, OPPONENT 47.9.
--SAN ANTONIO is 33-10 UNDER (+22.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 52.2, OPPONENT 45.6.
•Situational Analysis of The Day
--Play Against - Underdogs of +135 to +350 versus the money line (SACRAMENTO) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, revenging a road loss versus opponent, off a double digit win as a underdog of 6 points or more.
(31-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +28.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +123.5
The average score in these games was: Team 99.7, Opponent 96.4 (Average point differential = +3.3)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1, +4.0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7, +18.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (100-75, -3.5 units).
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Friday's Tip Sheet
Systems Analyst William Stillman
•Warriors @ Raptors – 7:35 PM EST
Golden State plays with no rest tonight following a 110-99 setback at Cleveland on Thursday as three-point underdogs. The Warriors are playing their eighth road contest in the last nine trips to the court, as Steve Kerr’s team has struggled to cover numbers away from Oracle Arena recently by compiling a 1-6 ATS mark in the past seven away games. Golden State is currently riding a 6-1 run to the ‘under,’ while scoring 99 points or less four times in this stretch.
Since blowing out Atlanta, 105-80 to start the second half of the season, Toronto has hit the skids with three consecutive losses. All three defeats came to Southwest Division foes, including blowing a pair of second half leads in setbacks at New Orleans and Dallas earlier this week. The Raptors hit the road again after tonight’s contest with a trip to New York tomorrow, while Dwane Casey’s club plays with revenge against a Golden State squad that ran out Toronto in early January, 126-105 at Oracle Arena. Toronto has been impressive at home this season against Western Conference competition, winning eight of 10 times, including recent victories over the Clippers and Spurs before the All-Star break.
•Clippers @ Grizzlies – 8:05 PM EST
These two clubs meet for the second time this week, as the Grizzlies got past the Clippers at Staples Center on Monday evening, 90-87 to cash as 3 ½-point underdogs. Memphis has dominated Los Angeles the last few seasons, winning seven of the past eight matchups, including each of the first two meetings this season. The Grizzlies picked up a pair of quality wins on their recent three-game Western trip by beating the Blazers and Clippers on a back-to-back set, but slipped up in a 102-90 setback at Sacramento on Wednesday as 6 ½-point road favorites.
Los Angeles continues a four-game road swing after a 110-105 loss at Houston on Wednesday, the second straight defeat since a four-game winning streak. Doc Rivers’ club has eclipsed the 100-point mark in 10 of the past 12 games, but that has resulted in only six ‘overs’ during this stretch. In the last nine contests away from Staples Center, the Clippers have cashed tickets just twice in outright underdog victories at San Antonio and Dallas, as Los Angeles lost by 16 points at Memphis in its last visit to FedEx Forum back in November.
•Heat @ Pelicans – 8:05 PM EST
Miami needs to win the games against non-playoff competition to help its case to qualify for the postseason. The Heat knocked off the 76ers and Magic earlier this week to improve to 25-31, including a late run to force overtime in Wednesday’s 93-90 triumph at Orlando. Now, Erik Spoelstra’s squad plays with immediate revenge in the Big Easy after getting stomped on by New Orleans last Saturday, 105-91 as two-point home favorites. The Heat hasn’t won three straight games since the starting the season at 3-0, while going 0-5 in the five opportunities off back-to-back wins since November 4.
The Pelicans continue to play without star center Anthony Davis, who is sidelined with a shoulder injury. New Orleans has won three consecutive games since getting tripped up at Orlando last Friday, which includes home victories over Toronto and Brooklyn in the underdog role. In Monday’s 102-96 win over the Nets as 2 ½-point ‘dogs, the Pelicans shot 51% from the floor, while Quincy Pondexter put up a career-high 25 points. New Orleans has dominated in the role of a home ‘dog, covering in eight of 10 opportunities.
•Thunder @ Blazers – 10:35 PM EST
Oklahoma City couldn’t quite get to nine consecutive victories, as its rally fell short in a 117-113 setback in overtime at Phoenix last night. The Thunder had won and covered its previous eight games, which included three victories without Kevin Durant, who remains sidelined with a foot injury. OKC has performed well without rest this season, posting a 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS record on the second of a back-to-back, including three straight wins on the road in this role. However, the Thunder is playing with double-revenge at the Moda Center after losing twice to the Blazers, including a 115-111 overtime defeat at home in December.
The Blazers finally picked up a win after the All-Star break following low-scoring defeats to the Jazz and Grizzlies as Portland beat San Antonio for the third time this season, 111-95 on Wednesday. LaMarcus Aldridge returned from a one-game absence to shoot 5-of-19 from the floor for 11 points, while Wesley Matthews paced Portland with 31 points. The Blazers have won five of their past six games at the Moda Center, while posting a perfect 4-0 mark at home against division foes this season. Since the start of January, the Blazers own a dreadful 1-7 ATS record coming off an ATS win, including four outright losses in the favorite role.
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