STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/14/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 2/14/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Friday's Notebook
•Yale beat Harvard last week; both teams are 5-1 with eight games left in season; no conference tourney in Ivy League, so Bulldogs have shot to win conference in huge upset. Bulldogs swept Penn LY by 9-14 points; they're 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-10-4 at home. Ivy League home favorites of 7+ points are 4-5 versus spread. Quakers are 0-2 as road underdogs, with losses by 17-30 points in their two Ivy road games.
•Harvard won eight of last nine games with Columbia, but lost 78-63 here LY; Crimson is 3-3 as Ivy favorite, 1-0 on road- they won by 30 in only road game, at Dartmouth. Harvard won three of last four visits here, by 29-19-7. Columbia lost three of last four games, beating Cornell by 10 in only home game so far. Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 versus spread. Harvard has made 43.6% of its 3-pointers in league play.
•Cornell is 0-19 versus D-I teams; their only win was against Oberlin, which is 6-16 in D-III; Big Red won 18 of last 21 games with Dartmouth, with wins in last 10 games played here. Ivy League home teams are 5-1 versus spread if number was less than 5 points. Cornell is 4-2 versus spread in Ivy, but they were getting double digits in all four covers. Dartmouth is 2-4 in conference play, despite playing five of the six games at home.
•Brown won four of its last five games, is 3-0 at home in Ivy, winning by 17-12-8 points; Bruins lost three of last four games with Princeton but won six of last eight played here- home side is 11-5 in last 16 series tilts. Princeton is 1-4 in league play after going 12-2 out of conference- they've lost twice in OT, another by one point- their only conference win was over an awful Cornell team. Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 versus spread.
•Detroit didn't want Oakland joining Horizon, so this will be good rivalry game as years go on; Grizzlies (+2.5) won first meeting 77-69 on Jan 11, rallying from 11 down with 8:10 to play. Horizon League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-13 versus spread. Oakland lost its last three games, is 1-3 as home favorite, with last two home wins by a point each. Detroit won three of last four games, covering last three on foreign soil.
•Arizona won six of last seven games with Arizona State, winning 91-68 (-14) in first meeting Jan 16, leading 24-8 after 10:00; Wildcats are 2-2 as road favorites, with only one road win by more than four points. ASU is 4-1 in last five games, with last three wins by 2 points or in OT. Pac-12 home dogs of 5 or less points are 10-6 versus spread. Arizona won three of last four visits to Tempe, with all three wins by 15+.
•Canisius (-9.5) outscored Niagara 26-7 on line in 87-74 home win Jan 22, with Baron scoring 31 points; Griffins won last two series games, after Niagara had won 17 of previous 20. MAAC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 4-7 versus spread. Canisius lost last two games to Iona/Jaspers- they're 2-2 as road favorites, winning last two away games. Niagara lost last four games, with three losses by four or less points.
•Iona (-6.5) won 89-71 in first MAAC meeting at Monmouth Feb 4, with Gaels making 23-30 (77%) of shots inside arc. MAAC double digit home favorites are 7-8 versus spread. Iona won its last eight games (6-2 vs. spread); they're 4-4 as home favorites, 2-3 when laying double digits. Monmouth lost last five games, three by 6 or less points; they're 5-3 as underdogs on road. Iona is making 41.7% from arc in MAAC, best in league.
•Marist won three of last four games, covered last three; Red Foxes (+4) lost 67-58 at Siena Jan 10- Saints outscored them 29-16 on line in game where five Foxes had 4+ fouls. Siena is 2-5 on MAAC road, 2-3 as road underdog- they’re 0-4 versus spread in last four games. MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-10 versus spread. Marist is 3-2 as home favorite, winning last three home games by 7-2-14 points.
•Chattanooga lost two of last three games after starting 8-0 in conference; Moccasins are 5-0 at home, 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 9-1-21-10-15 points at home. Western Carolina won three of last four games, is 2-2 on Southern Conference road, losing by 11 at Wofford, 14 at Elon. WCU forces a turnover 22.7% of time, best in league. Southern Conference favorites are 10-7-1 versus spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.
•Temple lost 11 of last 12 games, is 1-9 in AAC, 3-4 versus spread as a dog, losing home games by 7-10-4 points, with win over Rutgers. Louisville hasn't played in nine days; they've won six of last seven games, is 4-1 as road favorite, winning away games by 25-7-12-39-15 points. Cardinals are forcing turnovers 23.7% of time, making 41% from arc, both best in league. AAC double digit favorites are 16-5 versus spread, 3-1 on road.
•SMU (-12) beat Rutgers 70-56 at home Jan 18, holding Knights to 33% from floor, forcing 18 turnovers; Mustangs are in top 25 for first time in 28 years- they're 7-1 in last eight games, 9-1 in last ten versus spread, 1-1 as road favorites (2-2 SU on road). Rutgers won two of last three games, is 2-1 as home dogs. Home teams are 9-2 against spread in their conference games. AAC home underdogs are 6-11 versus spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- CORNELL is 17-1 ATS (+15.9 Units) after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1997.
The average score was CORNELL 66.7, OPPONENT 67.0.
-- ARIZONA is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 70.3, OPPONENT 57.2.
-- NIAGARA is 3-18 (-16.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls since 1997.
The average score was NIAGARA 32.0, OPPONENT 35.7.
-- PRINCETON is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PRINCETON 33.0, OPPONENT 31.2.
-- MITCH HENDERSON is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week as the coach of PRINCETON.
The average score was HENDERSON 69.0, OPPONENT 65.0.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- SMU is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was SMU 71.9, OPPONENT 60.1.
-- ARIZONA is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 71.2, OPPONENT 55.6.
-- W CAROLINA is 0-6 (-6.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% after 15+ games this season.
The average score was W CAROLINA 30.2, OPPONENT 35.3.
-- SMU is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was SMU 30.7, OPPONENT 25.4.
-- TOMMY AMAKER is 8-27 ATS (-21.7 Units) versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games as the coach of HARVARD.
The average score was AMAKER 65.8, OPPONENT 69.3.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (ARIZONA) - an excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less.
(58-7 since 1997.) (89.2%, +41.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -239.3
The average score in these games was: Team 74.3, Opponent 66.4 (Average point differential = +7.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1, +10.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2, +14.1 units).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (TEMPLE) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 5 straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season.
(29-6 since 1997.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (4-31)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 14
The average score in these games was: Team 66.5, Opponent 77.1 (Average point differential = -10.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (29.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
-- Play Against - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NIAGARA) - average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 reb/game), revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points, off a home loss by 3 points or less.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-4 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.3
The average score in these games was: Team 72.7, Opponent 62.5 (Average point differential = +10.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (40.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (64-35).
-- Play Against - A road team versus the 1rst half line (HARVARD) - good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game, off an upset loss as a home favorite, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record.
(56-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +31.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.7, Opponent 29.5 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)
The situation's record this season is: (7-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-14).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (128-77).
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Friday's Match-ups
#811 ARIZONA @ #812 ARIZONA ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Arizona -5, Total: N/A) - Arizona proved in its last win that it has enough firepower to remain the frontrunner in the Pac-12, but its remaining path to a conference title figures to test its mettle. The third-ranked Wildcats begin a stretch in which they play five of their final seven games on the road Friday against Arizona State. Arizona lost starter Brandon Ashley for the season in its Feb. 1 setback at California, then struggled in a home victory against Oregon before routing Oregon State on Sunday.
Each of the Wildcats’ remaining road games is against an opponent they have already defeated, perhaps none of which were more impressive than their 91-68 triumph Jan. 16 against the Sun Devils. Arizona State has won five of six since that setback, although it has coughed up a second-half lead of at least 16 points in two of its last three victories. “I think for the second game in as many weeks of having a big lead and then losing it, our guys showed great character in retaking the lead and winning both (games),” Sun Devils coach Herb Sendek told the school’s website.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (23-1 SU, 14-9-0 ATS, 10-1 Pac-12): In the nearly three games that Ashley has missed (he logged two minutes against California), former sixth man Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has stepped into his spot in the lineup and averaged 13.3 points and 7.3 rebounds – each of which is a slight improvement over Ashley’s season averages. The Wildcats outscored the Beavers 40-12 in the paint and 13-0 in second-chance points, continuing their season-long domination in both areas. Arizona owns a 13.3 points per game advantage in the paint and has nearly doubled up its opponents in second-chance points (326-166).
•ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (18-6 SU, 11-11-0 ATS, 7-4 Pac-12): Wildcats coach Sean Miller attributed the absence of second-leading scorer Jermaine Marshall – out with a groin injury Jan. 16 – to Arizona’s success against Jordan Bachynski, who was limited to three points in the first meeting. “You don’t have to account for that 16 points per game … (Friday) will be much more difficult because they have another shooter (Marshall) on the court,” Miller told the Arizona Daily Star. Bachynski was nearly unstoppable last week, averaging 21.5 points, 12 rebounds and eight blocks en route to winning Pac-12 Player of the Week honors.
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona, which has won six of the last seven in this series, owns a conference-best 29 true road wins since Miller took over prior to the 2009-10 season.... Bachynski’s 107 blocks match the number made by the Wildcats as a team.... Arizona is tied with Southern Methodist for first in the country in two-point field-goal percentage defense (40.7).... The Sun Devils are 0-6 ATS against the spread versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.... The Wildcats are 9-1 versus the spread in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST covered the spread 508 times, while ARIZONA covered the spread 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 624 times, while ARIZONA ST won 349 times. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA covered the first half line 501 times, while ARIZONA ST covered the first half line 499 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARIZONA is 19-16 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 27-8 straight up against ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--17 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 23-11 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARIZ is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--ARIZ is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pacific-12.
--Under is 39-16-1 in ARIZ last 56 overall.
--ASU are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Fri. games.
--ASU are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 6-2 in ASU last 8 vs. Pacific-12.
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#823 SMU @ #824 RUTGERS
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, No TV - Line: SMU -8.5, Total: 143.5) - Fresh off its biggest win since Ronald Reagan was in office, Southern Methodist must be wary of a letdown when it opens a two-game road trip with a visit to Rutgers on Friday night. The game was originally scheduled for Thursday, but postponed because of a winter storm in New Jersey. The Mustangs are coming off a 76-55 demolition of American Athletic Conference leader Cincinnati, handing the Bearcats their first league loss with their third win over a ranked team. SMU fans rushed the floor following the 76-55 rout of Cincinnati, the program's first victory over a Top 10 team since December 1987.
The Mustangs, in their second season under Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown, have won three straight to improve to 13-0 at home and their only setback in the last nine games came at South Florida in their last road game. "There's no reason why we can't be a premier program," Brown said. "We've just got to get people to believe in what we're doing." SMU knocked off visiting Rutgers 70-56 on Jan. 21, but the Scarlet Knights posted an impressive 79-69 victory at South Florida on Saturday.
•ABOUT SMU (19-5 SU, 14-6-0 ATS, 8-3 AAC): Halting Cincinnati's 15-game winning streak put the Mustangs within one victory of reaching 20, but it also ratcheted up the team's aspirations. “Our goal is to win a national championship, which might have sounded crazy a couple of months ago,” center Cannen Cunningham told reporters after Saturday's game. “We’ve seen the bottom. We’re trying to get to the top. I think we can do it.” Forward Markus Kennedy scored only four points Saturday to end a string of 14 games in double figures, but he tormented Rutgers with 18 points and 10 rebounds in the first matchup.
•ABOUT RUTGERS (10-14 SU, 10-12-0 ATS, 4-7 AAC): The Scarlet Knights have won two of three following a four-game skid and are battling Houston for sixth place and a first-round bye in the conference tournament. "Obviously, we have to have a goal, and it’s sixth place," Rutgers coach Eddie Jordan said. "Hopefully we can achieve that goal. It’s a journey." Second-leading scorer Kadeem Jack was limited to eight points on 2-for-11 shooting in last month's loss at SMU, but the burly forward erupted for a career-high 31 points at South Florida and is averaging 19.2 points over his last five games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Brown is 14-6 against Jordan, the first 13 wins coming in the NBA.... SMU ranks second nationally in field-goal percentage defense, holding opponents to 36.7 percent shooting.... Rutgers G Myles Mack (1,114 points) is nine shy of surpassing the late Jim Valvano for 27th place on the school's career list.... The Mustangs are 9-1 versus the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.... The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 against the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the spread 539 times, while SMU covered the spread 461 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 740 times, while RUTGERS won 239 times. In 1000 simulated games, 593 games went under the total, while 407 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the first half line 520 times, while SMU covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 542 games went under first half total, while 458 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SMU is 1-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS since 1997.
--SMU is 1-0 straight up against RUTGERS since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SMU is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against RUTGERS since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SMU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Fri. games.
--SMU is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Under is 5-2 in SMU last 7 road games.
--RUTG is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--RUTG is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Over is 5-0 in RUTG last 5 overall.
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#825 LOUISVILLE @ #826 TEMPLE
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Louisville -14, Total: N/A) - Louisville is running out of time to chase down Cincinnati atop the American Athletic Conference but enters the final month of its regular-season slate in strong position to defend its NCAA title. The eighth-ranked Cardinals aim for their third straight win when they visit last-place Temple on Friday. The game was originally scheduled for Thursday, but postponed because of snow. Louisville sits two games behind Cincinnati in the AAC and still has to make trips to face the Bearcats and Memphis.
The Cardinals bounced back from a 69-66 home loss to Cincinnati on Jan. 30 by picking on Central Florida and Houston in a pair of wins by an average of 16 points. Louisville averages 82.3 points and has been held under 70 just four times this season, including its last three losses. The Owls will be hard-pressed to come up with a defensive effort that can keep the Cardinals under 70 points and have surrendered an average of 82.7 in their last seven contests.
•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (19-4 SU, 11-10-0 ATS, 8-2 AAC): The Cardinals are coming off an eight-day break after a 77-62 triumph at Houston that saw the team shoot 55.6 percent. Louisville’s offense is keyed by forcing turnovers, and its margin of plus-6.7 and average of 22.2 points off turnovers both rank among the leaders nationally. Chris Jones (1.9) and Russ Smith (1.8) lead the team in steals, and Jones nabbed five of the Cardinals’ 11 steals while Smith led four starters in double figures with 17 points in the win at Houston.
•ABOUT TEMPLE (6-19 SU, 8-11-1 ATS, 1-9 AAC): The Owls rank last in the AAC with an average of 5.6 steals and are allowing more points than any team in the conference at 77.8. That same Houston squad that managed just 62 points against Louisville put up 88 in a 14-point triumph over Temple on Sunday as the Owls fell despite having all five starters in double figures. Temple boasts four players averaging at least 14 points but struggles to get stops at the other end and is staring at a stretch of five straight games against the top five teams in the conference.
•PREGAME NOTES: Temple G Dalton Pepper has scored in double figures in 10 straight games and added at least five rebounds in each of the last three.... Louisville F Wayne Blackshear (concussion) missed the last game but is expected to be back Friday.... Smith is connecting on just 64.4 percent of his free-throw attempts over the last six games.... The Cardinals are 21-8 versus the spread in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... Temple is 36-14 against the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the spread 510 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the spread 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 830 times, while TEMPLE won 152 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 551 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 405 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEMPLE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEMPLE is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE since 1997.
--TEMPLE is 1-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against TEMPLE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--LOU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
--Over is 21-8 in LOU last 29 overall.
--Under is 15-7 in LOU last 22 Fri. games.
--TEM is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
--TEM is 9-20 ATS in their last 29 home games.
--Over is 16-5 in TEM last 21 home games.
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