STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF REPORT
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
#105 N ILLINOIS vs. #106 BOWLING GREEN
(Line: Northern Illinois -6.5, Total: 59) - For the second consecutive season, the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Bowling Green Falcons will meet in the Mid-American Conference championship game at Detroit's Ford Field. Northern Illinois enters the game having won its last six contests, boasting a 10-2 overall record with a 7-1 mark in conference play. This time last year, the Huskies were headed into the championship game with a perfect record. This time around, the Huskies are simply looking to secure the conference crown. Bowling Green limps into the conference championship game, having lost its last two contests to Toledo (27-20) and Ball State (41-24). The Falcons secured the MAC East Division several weeks ago.
These two teams have met a total of eighteen times on the football field, with Bowling Green holding the all-time advantage, 11-7. Fittingly, the last time these programs clashed was in the 2013 MAC title game - a 47-27 Bowling Green victory. Northern Illinois boasts an offensive attack centered around the run game. The Huskies average 246.2 rushing ypg entering the title contest, which is similar to the system the squad employed last season to get there. Senior tailback Cameron Stingily owns a team-best 11 touchdowns on the ground this season, but quarterback Drew Hare leads his unit with 790 rushing yards on the season. He and Stingily both average over 65 rushing ypg. Hare has proven to be an effective passer this season as well, throwing for 1,879 yards and 15 touchdowns against just one interception. Hare averages 156.6 passing ypg, has a completion percentage of .600, and sports a passer efficiency rating of 142.1 entering the MAC title game.
There's no denying that Da'Ron Brown is Hare's favorite weapon through the air. The pass catcher has hauled in 55 receptions in 12 games for a team-best 932 yards and six touchdowns this season, and is averaging 77.7 receiving ypg - over 50 yards on average more than anyone else on the squad. Juwan Brescacin has hauled in four touchdowns on the year. Defensively, the team held it together down the stretch run to keep the Huskies in contention. The 21 points scored by Western Michigan was the most by an opponent against NIU since the Huskies gave up 24 to Toledo a few weeks back. The Broncos were no slouch offensively, and NIU coach Rod Carey knew that.
"You have to give a ton of credit to our guys," Carey said. "It would have been easy to get down, but we knew what we had to do. Defense played great all day, they got put in some tough positions a couple times [by the offense] but they really had a mindset."
The defense for Northern Illinois used the latter half of the season to drop its opponent scoring average down to 24.2 ppg, and a strong secondary allowed just 14 passing touchdowns this season while it picked off 11 passes. Safety Marlon Moore led the way for the Huskies with a team-best 86 total tackles, adding in two forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and an interception. Four players for NIU this season notched a pair of interceptions, including cornerback Paris Logan, who had a team-high 13 pass breakups. Lineman Jason Meehan dominated up front with 9.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks. He'll be needed to slow down a strong Bowling Green run game.
The Falcons utilized a well-rounded offensive attack this season to earn their spot in the title game. The run game for Bowling Green averages 180.6 ypg, and has scored an impressive 27 times this season. Travis Greene, a MAC preseason all-conference selection, led the team with 803 rushing yards and nine touchdowns this season, even though he missed a few contests due to injury. Andre Givens stepped in and played well in his absence, checking in right behind the star Green with eight rushing scores. Givens needs just 26 yards to be the third 500-yard rusher on Bowling Green this season, which would be the first time in Falcons history that has happened.
James Knapke filled in very well at quarterback after starter Matt Johnson went down earlier in the year. Knapke has thrown for 2,654 yards, 12 touchdowns and has tossed 10 interceptions. He's the architect behind a 30.8 ppg offense for the Falcons. Through the air, Knapke has utilized star receivers Roger Lewis (66 receptions, 934 yards, five touchdowns) and Ronnie Moore (49 receptions, 598 yards, five touchdowns) well. They make up 10 of the team's 14 touchdowns through the air this season. The matchup between two very capable offensive teams for the MAC title is something that Bowling Green coach Dino Babers thinks will highlight the championship contest.
"We're excited about the matchup," Babers said. "We think we have earned the right to be here. We have the opportunity to right some wrongs."
But Bowling Green's defense hasn't been as strong as the team would have liked, especially as of late. The Falcons enter the game allowing opponents to score 32.5 ppg and gain just shy of 500 yards per outing offensively. In fact, the Falcons haven't held a challenger to fewer than 20 points in a single game since a 27-10 victory over in-state rival Akron in early November. Linebacker Gabe Martin paces the Falcons this season with exactly 100 tackles through 12 contests.
But Martin has shown his versatility in getting through to an opponents' backfield, registering 15 tackles for loss (a team high) with two interceptions, three QB hurries and a forced fumble. Lineman Bryan Thomas is the only other Bowling Green player to add a double-digit tackles for loss total to his season resume, notching 13 stops behind the line of scrimmage with a team-best six sacks. True freshmen Nick Johnson (five interceptions) and Clint Stephens (three INT’s) are two of just 10 freshmen in the entire FBS that have at least three picks this season. They'll be active against Hare, but should focus plenty of energy against the run game.
•KEY STATS
--N ILLINOIS is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 27.9, OPPONENT 25.1.
--N ILLINOIS is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 37.4, OPPONENT 21.3.
--N ILLINOIS is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1992.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 35.7, OPPONENT 14.8.
--N ILLINOIS is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 26.1, OPPONENT 24.1.
--N ILLINOIS is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 12.8, OPPONENT 12.3.
--BOWLING GREEN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 32.1, OPPONENT 15.4.
--BOWLING GREEN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 31.0, OPPONENT 15.5.
--BOWLING GREEN is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 28.4, OPPONENT 20.6.
--BOWLING GREEN is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 11.2, OPPONENT 13.4.
•COACHING TRENDS
--ROD CAREY is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games as the coach of N ILLINOIS.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 24.8, OPPONENT 19.7.
--ROD CAREY is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games as the coach of N ILLINOIS.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 9.6, OPPONENT 14.0.
--ROD CAREY is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of N ILLINOIS.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 6.7, OPPONENT 18.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BOWLING GREEN is 4-3 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS since 1992.
--BOWLING GREEN is 4-4 straight up against N ILLINOIS since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--N ILLINOIS is 4-3 versus the first half line when playing against BOWLING GREEN since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NIU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
--NIU is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
--Under is 11-3 in NIU last 14 neutral site games.
--BGSU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.
--BGSU is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
--Under is 16-5 in BGSU last 21 games following a ATS loss.
StatSystemsSports.nethas searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 40 times, while the underdog covered the spread 36 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 60 times, while the underdog won straight up 19 times. 31 games went under the total, while 21 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 43 times, while the favorite covered first half line 35 times. *No EDGE. 31 games went under first half total, while 20 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Neutral field teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (BOWLING GREEN) - an awful passing defensive team - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game against a good rushing teams - averaging more than 200 rushing yards/game, in a game involving two teams with good turnover differentials (+0.75/game or better).
(24-2 since 1992.) (92.3%, +21.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.2, Opponent 11.2 (Total first half points scored = 22.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (17-1).
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PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
#107 ARIZONA vs. #108 OREGON
(Line: Oregon -14.5, Total: 72) - The third-ranked Oregon Ducks will have revenge on their minds when they take on the eighth-ranked Arizona Wildcats in the Pac-12 Conference Championship game at Levi's Stadium on Friday night. On October 2nd, the then unranked Wildcats stunned the second-ranked Ducks, 31-24, in Autzen Stadium. The win was the second straight for Arizona over Oregon, with the Wildcats also logging a 42-16 triumph last season. Oregon still leads the all-time series, 24-16. It will be even more desperate to capture the 25th all-time win against the Wildcats this week.
"We're just going to play our game," Oregon QB Marcus Mariota said. "Arizona did a great job setting and dictating tempo in the last meeting. If we go out and execute to the best of our abilities and execute the game plans that are put in front of us we should hopefully be successful."
After defeating the Ducks, Arizona lost two of three games, including a 17-7 setback on the road against UCLA. However, the Wildcats resurrected their conference title hopes by winning their next four games, including a 42-35 victory over in-state rival Arizona State last Friday. With that win, the Wildcats improved to 10-2 overall, marking their first 10-win season since 1998. They are still alive in the hunt for the College Football Playoff as well, but they would need to win their first-ever Pac-12 title, and first league title since tying for the Pac-10 crown back in 1993, to have a chance at the final four.
Since losing to the Wildcats, Oregon has been red hot, ripping off seven straight victories. The Ducks' average margin of victory during the lengthy win streak is an astounding 24.2 points per game. The setback against Arizona was the only one they suffered during the regular season, as they finished at 11-1 overall following last week's demolition of Oregon State (47-19) in the Civil War. Oregon won the first-ever Pac-12 title in 2011 after notching back- to-back Pac-10 championships, but it has failed to get into the title game the last two seasons. A victory on Friday would all but guarantee the team a slot in the inaugural College Football Playoff.
This contest promises to be quite the offensive exhibition, as both squads have had their fair share of success on that side of the ball this season. The Wildcats finished the regular season ranked fourth in the Pac-12 in both total offense (481.3 ypg) and scoring (36.7 ppg). The success of the team in that area, as well as in the standings, earned Rich Rodriguez Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors. One of the best decisions Rodriguez made all season occurred back in August, when he chose redshirt freshman Anu Solomon has his starting quarterback. Solomon rewarded Rodriguez's faith by turning in a strong campaign, completing 58.2 percent of his pass attempts for 3,424 yards, 27 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. His yardage total is fifth-best in the conference, although his completion percentage (.582) ranks 12th. Solomon was solid last week against Arizona State, accumulating 208 yards and two touchdowns on 15- of-21 passing.
Samajie Grant was exceptional in that win, picking up 91 yards and two touchdowns on four receptions. Grant (40 receptions, 645 yards, five TDs) is part of a trio of receivers who have been instrumental to Solomon's success. Cayleb Jones (63 receptions, 831 yards, eight TDs) and Austin Hill (42 receptions, 586 yards, four TDs) are both dangerous as well and they will be needed even more this week, as Grant will not start after being cited on suspicion of driving under the influence last weekend. Of course it wouldn't be a Rodriguez offense without a strong running game, and Nick Wilson has made sure the Wildcats have one. Wilson (1,263 yards, 15 TDs) may not have had the explosive campaigns of Ka'Deem Carey, but he did rank fourth in the Pac-12 in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns.
The real star for the Wildcats isn't on offense, however. Scooby Wright was named the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, and for good reason as he led the Pac-12 in tackles (140) and tackles for loss (28.0), while logging 14 sacks. Despite those efforts, Arizona is still a run-of-the-mill defensive squad, allowing 25.5 points and 434.7 yards per game. Wright and company know just how challenging it will be to slow down Oregon again. The Wildcats limited the Ducks to 446 yards in the meeting earlier this season. Repeating the accomplishment will be tough against an Oregon team that ranks fourth in the country in total offense (539.5 ypg).
The top priority will be slowing down Mariota, a task Rodriguez knows is nearly impossible. "I don't think you can say that we stopped him. If you look back at his stats, he got a lot of yards and big plays, but we got a couple turnovers," Rodriguez said of his defense's performance earlier this season. "...We have just been really lucky to get some things offensively and keep him off the field more often." Mariota, who was an easy choice as Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year, turned in a regular season for the ages, throwing for 3,470 yards and 36 touchdowns, with only two interceptions. As if his ability to throw wasn't frightening enough, Mariota also ran for 636 yards and 11 scores.
Even if Arizona manages to cause some problems for Mariota, it still has to contend with a number of talented skill position players. Royce Freeman (1,185 yards, 16 TDs) was the team's leading rusher during the regular season. He has had at least 100 yards in five of the last seven games. Byron Marshall can run a bit as well (352 yards, TD), but he has been exceptional as a receiver out of the backfield, leading the Ducks in receptions (56) and receiving yards (791). Devon Allen (36 receptions, 638 yards, six TDs) and Dwayne Stanford (37 receptions, 557 yards, six TDs) are two targets Mariota favors as well.
While it laid waste to regular season opponents on offense, Oregon was less dominant on the defensive side of the ball. The Ducks rank eighth in the Pac-12 in total defense (429.6 ypg), although that is partially a symptom of the quick-strike scheme of the offense, which often requires opposing offenses to be on the field more often and throw the ball more frequently.
•KEY STATS
--ARIZONA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 23.9, OPPONENT 30.0.
--ARIZONA is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 37.7, OPPONENT 34.6.
--OREGON is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus awful passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 45.9, OPPONENT 18.5.
--OREGON is 38-13 ATS (+23.7 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 36.3, OPPONENT 20.4.
--OREGON is 25-5 ATS (+19.5 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 43.5, OPPONENT 23.5.
--OREGON is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 49.8, OPPONENT 20.4.
--OREGON is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) after playing 2 straight conference games this season.
The average score was OREGON 27.9, OPPONENT 10.4.
--OREGON is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 14.0, OPPONENT 12.7.
•COACHING TRENDS
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 25.7, OPPONENT 33.9.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 18-5 UNDER (+12.4 Units) in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 25.8, OPPONENT 24.3.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 12-1 UNDER (+10.8 Units) in road games after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 25.1, OPPONENT 25.5.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 8-24 against the 1rst half line (-18.4 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 15.0, OPPONENT 14.3.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 18-5 UNDER (+12.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 11.8, OPPONENT 13.5.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 12-10 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1992.
--OREGON is 16-6 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--OREGON is 11-11 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1992.
--12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
--Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARIZ is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Friday games.
--ARIZ is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
--Under is 4-1 in ARIZ last 5 conference games.
--ORE is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
--ORE is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
--Over is 4-0 in ORE last 4 Friday games.
StatSystemsSports.nethas searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 12 times, while the underdog covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 19 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 5 games went over the total, while 2 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 11 times, while the favorite covered first half line 8 times. *No EDGE. 4 games went under first half total, while 3 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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