Dr Bob
Fri Dec-26-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 221 Over/Under 60.5
Louisiana Tech’s games averaged 62.2 total points per game in regulation and Illinois’ games averaged 60.5 total points per game, which are both higher than the national average of 55 points per game. However, there is good value towards the Under in this game for a few different reasons, from Louisiana Tech’s variance in red zone scoring average to the significantly slower pace that Illinois is running their offense in the second half of the season with a run-oriented offensive approach replacing the pass-heavy attack of the first 6 games of the season. It all adds up to solid value on the Under.
The Illinois offense will be run by senior Reilly O’Toole, who was a backup for 3 ½ years before getting his chance to start when Wes Lunt went down with an injury in the middle of the season. Lunt is a better passer but he wasn’t nearly as effective when he came back from a month long absence in week 12 against Iowa and it was O’Toole that led the Illini to wins the following two weeks to secure a bowl bid and secure his spot as the starter for this game. O’Toole’s compensated passing numbers (5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average QB) aren’t that much worse than Lunt’s compensated numbers (Lunt faced worst pass defenses) but O’Toole isn’t as careful with the football and has thrown 7 interceptions in just 167 pass attempts (4.2% compared to Lunt’s 3 interceptions on 233 passes, 1.3%). O’Toole has thrown 16 interceptions on 337 career pass attempts (4.7%), so his higher than normal interception rate this season (2.9% in the national average) is most likely not the result of variance and he’s certainly in danger of throwing multiple picks against a ball-hawking Louisiana Tech secondary that leads the nation in interceptions. O’Toole does add a running element to the position, as he ran for 355 yards on 62 runs this season (not including sacks, which I count as passing plays), including 147 yards on 21 runs in the win over Northwestern that earned the Illini a spot in a bowl game. O’Toole’s running should improve the overall rushing numbers despite injuries to two starting offensive linemen. The other affect of having O’Toole at quarterback is more runs and fewer passes, which has led to more average time of possession and fewer plays per minute for the Illini since week 7 due to the clock stopping less often. Illinois averaged 2.7 plays per minute of possession the first 6 games of the season when they were averaging 23.3 rushing plays and 44.0 passing plays per game and their games averaged a total of 148.6 plays from scrimmage (not including kneel downs and spikes). In 6 games from week 7 on, with mostly O’Toole at quarterback, the Illini averaged 2.4 plays per minute of possession while averaging 34.2 runs and 31.7 pass plays and those games totaled just 137.6 plays from scrimmage. The fewer number of plays expected in this game with O’Toole at quarterback is not factored into the total on this game, which is part of the reason we have line value on the Under. For the season the Illinois attack averaged 5.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and they rate the same with O’Toole at quarterback but with more projected turnovers.
The Louisiana Tech defense was consistently good this season, allowing 5.0 yards per play to a schedule of opposing offensive units that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. The Bulldogs were particularly good defending the run (4.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp), which matches up well with an Illinois attack that runs it more often than they throw it with O’Toole behind center. Louisiana Tech will be without suspended starters DL Aaron Brown, LB Terrell Pinson, and LB Tony Johnson but those 3 also missed the Bulldogs’ game against an explosive Marshall attack and the defense played their best game of the season (relative to the strength of the opposing offense) in holding the Thundering Herd to just 5.4 yards per play and 26 points. I didn’t think Brown or Johnson would be missed since neither registered very many impact plays but I thought Pinson’s absence would hurt the pass defense since he’s proven to be very good in coverage (3 interceptions and 11 total passes defended). However, the coaching staff started a 5th defensive back against Marshall and the pass defense was even better and the Bulldogs gave up just 4.3 yards per rushing play to one of the best running teams in the nation. So, I certainly have no reason to think the absence of the 3 suspended defenders will hurt the defense given how well that unit performed in the CUSA Championship game and there is actually reason to think it might make the Bulldogs’ stop unit even better – although I made no adjustment either way. Louisiana Tech’s defense has a 0.7 yards per play advantage over the Illinois offense and the math projects the Illini to gain just 337 yards at 4.9 yppl in this game with O’Toole projected to throw 1.45 interceptions against a Bulldogs’ defense that leads the nation with 25 interceptions in 13 games.
Louisiana Tech’s offense is led by QB Cody Sokol, who transferred from Iowa and had a solid season throwing the football. Sokol averaged 7.1 yards per pass play while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. The rushing attack features Kenneth Dixon, who ran for 1236 yards at 5.2 ypr, but overall the Bulldogs were well below average running the ball this season, as they averaged only 4.8 yards per rushing play as a team despite facing opponents that would combine to allow 5.3 yprp to an average offensive team. Overall, Louisiana Tech’s 37.5 points per game is very misleading given that the offense averaged their 6.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average FBS attack. The Bulldogs also inflated their scoring average with 76 points in one game against Rice and they had a red zone efficiency that is too high to maintain. The Bulldogs averaged 5.5 points per red zone opportunity, which is far outside the normal range. The best teams in the nation are usually around 5.2 points per RZ and the national average is about 4.8 points per RZ opportunity. Louisiana Tech projects to be at 4.9 points per RZ based on their overall offensive stats and the difference works out to 2.4 points per game of red zone variance. The Bulldogs also had 4 defensive touchdowns, which is more than average also, so their 37.5 points per game was randomly high, which is another reason we have some line value on the under. Louisiana Tech may not have been affected by the academic suspensions on their defense but the offense really struggled against Marshall (just 268 yards at 4.1 yards per play) without two suspended starting offensive linemen, Tre Carter and Mitchell Bell. Carter and Bell are two of the most experienced starters on the line (combined for 41 career starts) and Bell was named first team All-CUSA. An offensive line that had given up just 5 sacks on 282 pass plays (1.8%) in the final 8 regular season games allowed 2 sacks on just 22 pass plays (9.1%) in their CUSA Championship game against Marshall. The Herd also had 7 quarterback hurries in that game and Sokol was a horrible 7 for 20 passing for just 72 yards (59 yards with sacks included) while under constant duress. That’s 9 sacks and hurries in just 22 pass plays (41%) compared to 43 sacks and hurries in 431 pass plays (10%) in the other 12 games with Carter and Bell. The patchwork offensive line should be better than they were against Marshall with a few weeks to prepare for this game but I think it’s reasonable to assume that the offensive line will not be as good without their 1st team All-Conference tackle and their best guard.
The Illini don’t look too good defensively, as they allowed 33.9 points per game and 6.1 yards per play to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 30.5 points and 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Illinois was actually pretty solid defensive early in the season and they were decent late in the season but they gave up an average of 8.4 yards per play in week 6 and 7 before playing better down the stretch. At 0.3 yppl worse than average the Illini defense matches up pretty evenly with a Louisiana Tech offense that is just average from a yards per play perspective this season and is likely to be a bit worse than average without their two best offensive linemen. The math model projects 379 yards at 5.7 yards per play for the Bulldogs, which is just barely better than the national average for yards per play and less than the national average of 396 total yards per game. It’s unlikely that Louisiana Tech will top 30 points even if they continue to average 5.5 yards per red zone possession.
Overall the math favors Louisiana Tech by 5 points, which is where this line opened, but the Illini apply to a very good 73-15-1 ATS bowl game situation that is more significant than a 50-23-2 ATS statistical match up indicator that applies to Louisiana Tech. I’ll lean with Illinois at +5 or more
The projected statistics in this game project just 49 total points but there should be a few more points than that given that Louisiana Tech is still likely to have a better red zone scoring efficiency than my model would project – although not as high of an average as they’ve had this season. The combination of 5 fewer projected plays than the season numbers would project and Louisiana Tech’s positive variance in points scored has supplied us with enough line value on the under to make a play. I should make this Under a 2-Star Best Bet but I’ve had bad luck with totals this season so I’ll play it conservatively and just make this a 1-Star play. I’ll go UNDER 59 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet (2-Stars at 61 or higher) and I’d consider the Under a Strong Opinion down to 58 points (and a lean under at less than that number).
