Service Plays Friday 11/28/14

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Dr Bob

***WESTERN MICHIGAN (-7) 37 Northern Illinois 21


Fri Nov-28-2014 at 08:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 320 Over/Under 58.0


Western Michigan failed to cover the spread in their opener by 2 points but the Broncos have gone a perfect 10-0 ATS since then and they’re still underrated. Actually, this game is a combination of Western Michigan still being underrated and Northern Illinois being overrated. Northern Illinois has averaged 425 yards at 5.9 yards per play and they’ve allowed 419 yards at 5.7 yppl, which are actually bad numbers when you take into account that the Huskies have faced teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl on offense while allowing 6.0 yppl against an average FBS opponent. So, Northern Illinois is 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively. Overall, the Huskies line of scrimmage rating, which is a combination of total yards and yards per play adjusted for schedule strength, is 8.2 points worse than an average FBS team. NIU has faced an FBS schedule that is 9.0 points easier than average and they’ve only outscored those 10 opponents by an average of 1.5 points per game, which is 7.5 points worse than average on a compensated points scale. Either way you look at it the Huskies are a well below average team.


Western Michigan, meanwhile, is a bit better than average on a national scale. The Broncos have averaged 7.1 yards per play and allowed 5.4 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.1 yppl and allow 6.2 yppl to an average FBS team. So, Western Michigan is 0.9 yppl better than average offensively and just 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively. From a points perspective the Broncos have outscored their opponents by an average of 12.6 points while facing a schedule that is 11.5 points easier than average, so they’ve been 1.1 points better than average in compensated points while rating at 1.4 points better than average from the line of scrimmage.


It’s clear that Western Michigan is a much better team from the line of scrimmage and the Broncos’ offense should surpass their average of 35.8 points per game given that they’re at home and facing a defense that is a bit worse than the average defense they’ve faced this season. Northern Illinois isn’t likely to keep up with an offense that has averaged a modest 28 points per game against teams that are a bit worse defensively that Western Michigan. My math model projects 492 yards at 7.3 yards per play for the Broncos while the Huskies are projected to gain a modest 384 yards at 5.7 yppl. NIU does have a slight advantage in projected turnovers (0.3 points worth) but Western Michigan has a 1.0 point edge in special teams and the Broncos should be favored by more than 10 points in this game. In addition to the line value Western Michigan also applies to a number of good situations, including an 85-29-1 ATS late season home momentum situation, while Northern Illinois applies to a 39-105-1 ATS road underdog situation. I’ll take Western Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -9 ½ points (1-Star at -10).




***MARSHALL (-21) 54 Western Kentucky 23


Fri Nov-28-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 324 Over/Under 74.0


Marshall’s habit of covering big numbers was temporarily interrupted last week in a deceiving 23-18 win as an 18 point favorite at UAB, but the Thundering Herd should return to business as usual at home against a defensively inept Western Kentucky team whose high flying offense hasn’t proven that it can move the ball against a good defensive team. Last week’s narrow 5 point win over UAB looks a lot closer on the scoreboard than it actually was, as Marshall outgained the Blazers 518 yards at 7.0 yards per play to 346 yards at 4.2 yppl and their overall line of scrimmage rating in that game was actually a bit higher than their season average. In other words, there is nothing wrong with the Marshall machine that is a perfect 11-0 straight up this season and is 12-3-1 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of 14 points or more (8-1-1 ATS at home).


The part of this game that is pretty easy to handicap is how Marshall’s well-balanced and potent attack will score on nearly every possession against a Western Kentucky defense that ranks 120th in my compensated defensive ratings. The Hilltoppers have allowed an average of 36.8 points on 486 yards per game at 6.4 yards per play despite facing a schedule of worse than average offensive teams that would combine to average only 25.7 points and 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Western Kentucky hasn’t faced a team nearly as good as Marshall’s offense but the Hilltoppers have faced 5 mediocre or better than average offensive teams and they gave up 50 points or more to 3 of them (Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, and Louisiana Tech) and 42 points to Illinois. Three of those teams fall into the mediocre offensive category (and Old Dominion is better than average offensively) and today they face an elite offensive team that has averaged 45 points and 548 yards per game at 7.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack). Western Kentucky’s defense is 0.7 yppl worse than the average defensive rating of the teams that Marshall has averaged those 45 points against and my math model is projecting 657 total yards and 54 points for the Thundering Herd in this game. That may sound unrealistic but Marshall’s top 5 offensive games have averaged 642 total yards and they’ve topped 700 total yards twice – and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they did it again today.


While it’s pretty obvious to expect Marshall to score a lot of points, the real question is how many points Western Kentucky’s good offense can score – and more specifically if they can score enough to stay within 3 or 4 touchdowns. The Hilltoppers do have an excellent offense that has averaged 41.9 points on 508 yards at 6.8 yards per play while facing teams that would combine to allow 34.5 points and 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team. Marshall’s defense, however, is just as good as the Herd have yielded only 4.4 yppl to a schedule of FBS opponents that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. What I like about Marshall’s defense is that they played their best against the best offensive team that they’ve faced so far – holding Old Dominion’s better than average attack to just 14 points on 239 yards and 3.6 yppl. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, has faced only one good defensive team all season (Louisiana Tech) and the Hilltoppers were held to 10 points on 297 yards at 4.1 yppl in that game by the Bulldogs (a 59-10 Best Bet win). That’s just one game but it’s certainly an indication that Western Kentucky’s offense may be relatively worse against a good defensive team while Marshall’s defense has been relatively better against the better offensive teams that they’ve faced (perhaps because they play with more focus when challenged). The math model projects 405 yards at 5.3 yppl for Western Kentucky, which equates to 23 points.


The projected stats would predict a 31 point win for Marshall and another method I use that predicts what the true line should be (it’s a combination of the box score projected margin and the actual line and is based on the historical performance of my model) comes up with a true line of 26 points. There is certainly line value favoring Marshall and the Thundering Herd will play with plenty of focus and emotion at home as they attempt to close out a perfect regular season. Marshall applies to a 122-60-3 ATS late season angle that plays on home favorites with 1 or fewer losses and unbeaten (7-0 or better) conference home favorites of 21 points or more are 51-23-1 ATS. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, applies to a 22-58 ATS last game double-digit underdog angle. The combination of line value and supporting situations make this game a really good play and I’ll take Marshall in a 3-Star Best Bet at -23 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -24 points.
 

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Norm Hitzges
FRIDAY, Nov. 28


  • Virginia -1 Virginia Tech
  • Toledo -23 E. Michigan
  • E. Carolina -17 1/2 Tulsa
  • UCLA -5 Stanford
  • Colorado State -7 Air Force
  • Akron -3 Kent St
 

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Tulsa +17.5 over East Carolina
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Air Force +7.5 over Colorado St
 

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Edmonton Oilers +1.5 over Nashville - pending
Boston Bruins -155 over Winnipeg Jets
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New Jersey Devils +104 over Detroit Red Wings
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Mississippi State PK over St. Louis
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River Plate + Boca Juniors UNDER 2 - Conmebol pending
Sonderjyske + Esbjerg UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Denmark
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***scam alert***

jefferson sports is the worst handicapper out there. Please let everyone know not to even look at his page. Plays nothing but the biggest line moves. 40% over the last 3 months

***scam alert***
 
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2* (315) Virginia Cavaliers PICK

I usually hate to back teams that have been dominated by their opponent but that is exactly what I am going to do in this game by rolling with the Cavs. Virginia Tech is no where near the team that they used to be and on top of that they have been hit very hard by the injury bug. The Hokies offense is pathetic and only ranks ahead of Wake Forest in the ACC who they lost to 6-3 in double overtime last week in a game that set offensive football back 100 years. The Cavs are coming off of a big home win over Miami and on a short holiday week could usually lead to a letdown, but I don't believe that will be the case here. Both of these teams need this win to become bowl eligible and Virginia is clearly the better team. Even in the games they have lost, Virginia has outgained every opponent with the exception of Florida State. I look for the Cavs to end this long losing streak to Tech and send the Hokies home for the holidays. Play on Virginia.
 
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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

CFB | HOUSTON at SMU
Play On – Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (HOUSTON) off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
 
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Friday’s Sports Matinee Cheat Sheet

The day after Thanksgiving means a day of quiet contemplation about how much you’ve eaten…and a ton of matinee action in all sports. So we bring you the quick one stop shop for all the afternoon games.

NBA:

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (-1, 201)

The Chicago Bulls might yet prove to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, but they’ll hardly resemble one when they face the Boston Celtics on Friday. The Bulls could be without three starters — Derrick Rose (hamstring), Joakim Noah (knee) and Taj Gibson (ankle) — when they continue their seven-game road trip. The Celtics could use a break, having lost five of their last six with the lone victory against winless Philadelphia.

Chicago has gone 2-3 on its trip, which wraps up Sunday at Brooklyn, after a short-handed 114-109 loss at Denver on Tuesday in which Noah and Gibson sat out and Rose was limited to two points in 10 minutes. “Derrick’s not the only one,” Bulls coach Tom Thibedeau told reporters. “We’ve got a lot of stuff going on here. We’ve got to get people healthy.” The Celtics won the first meeting this season, 106-101 in Chicago, despite playing without star point guard Rajon Rondo.

TRENDS:

*Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
*Over is 10-2 in Celtics last 12 games following a ATS loss.
*Bulls are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings



NHL:

New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers (-110, 5.5)

The New York Rangers stopped a losing skid when they hosted the Metropolitan Division-rival Philadelphia Flyers in the teams’ first meeting of the season last week. Coach Alain Vigneault’s club hopes to prevent another one from forming when it visits the Flyers on Friday afternoon to open a home-and-home set. Rick Nash, who scored in New York’s 2-0 triumph over Philadelphia to end an 0-1-2 slide, collected his team-leading 15th goal and an assist in a 4-3 setback to Tampa Bay on Wednesday.

Nash has recorded a goal in three straight and 13 of 21 games this season, a point in 16 of 21 and notched his 300th career assist against the Lightning. While those numbers certainly are impressive, Philadelphia is stringing together some rather gaudy numbers in its own right – albeit on the negative side after its 5-2 setback to Detroit on Wednesday. The Flyers have lost six of seven overall (1-5-1) and fell to 0-5-1 in their last six road contests heading into Saturday’s tilt in the house of horrors that is Madison Square Garden, where they’ve dropped nine in a row.

TRENDS:

*Flyers are 1-6 in their last 7 overall.
*Over is 6-2-3 in Rangers last 11 road games.
*Home team is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings.



Chicago Blackhawks at Anaheim Ducks (-120, 5.5)
The Chicago Blackhawks are having another successful run on their annual “Circus Trip” but they must withstand a rugged back-to-back finish to the six-game trek when they visit the Pacific Division-leading Anaheim Ducks on Friday. The Blackhawks have won six of eight after a 3-2 victory at Colorado, topping an opponent that beat them four times last season. “It’s a good start to the second half of the road trip,” forward Patrick Kane said. “It’s a lot better being 3-1 through the first four games than 2-2.”

Anaheim is riding a three-game winning streak following a stretch in which it had won only once in seven games (1-1-5) and has had 11 of its last 12 decided by one goal, including each of the past three victories. Since dropping their season opener, the Ducks have failed to earn a point in only two of 22 games and have played a league high nine games that were settled in overtime or a shootout. Anaheim has won six of its last eight against the Blackhawks, including a 1-0 victory at Chicago on Oct. 28.

TRENDS:

*Blackhawks are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.
*Under is 10-0-1 in Ducks last 11 games following a win.
*Blackhawks are 6-21-2 in the last 29 meetings in Anaheim.



NCAAF:

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at (20) Marshall Thundering Herd (-24, 74.5)

Marshall is one win away from locking up a perfect regular season. The Thundering Herd will try to improve to 12-0 when they host Western Kentucky in the regular-season finale on Friday. Marshall and defending National Champion Florida State are the only teams remaining without a loss, and the Thundering Herd are in the running for a New Year’s Six bowl game if they can hold off the Hilltoppers.

Marshall is having a hard time cracking the College Football Playoff rankings due to the strength of its schedule but is dominating the opponents in front of it and has already clinched the top spot in the Conference-USA East Division. Western Kentucky is bowl eligible as well after notching three straight wins by an average of 24.7 points. “For us, now we’re in the championship game,” Hilltoppers coach Jeff Brohm told reporters of the magnitude of the matchup with the Thundering Herd. “We get to play a championship game against an undefeated team on their home turf with a lot of implications for them riding on this game. It’s a great opportunity for us.”

TRENDS:

*Hilltoppers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Thundering Herd are 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
*Over is 4-1-1 in Hilltoppers last 6 games following a S.U. win.



Arkansas Razorbacks at (17) Missouri Tigers (+3, 45)

All that stands between No. 17 Missouri and a second SEC East title is red-hot Arkansas. The visiting Razorbacks enter Friday’s new rivalry after snapping a 17-game conference losing streak with back-to-back shutouts of LSU and Ole Miss. It is the first regular-season meeting between the teams since 1963 but the first of many as they will face off at the end of the year as permanent cross-division opponents.

The Tigers defense, which is allowing just 109.3 rushing yards in conference games, will have its hands full with Arkansas’ big offensive line and tough running backs. “We’ve done a pretty good job (stopping the run) and it starts up front with our rush defense,” Missouri coach Gary Pinkel said. “This is going to be a challenge for us. They’re very good at what they do.” Missouri has outscored its opponents 149-85 during its five-game win streak.

TRENDS:

*Razorbacks are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Tigers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
*Under is 12-3 in Tigers last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.



Stanford Cardinal at (10) UCLA Bruins (-5.5, 50)

Tenth-ranked UCLA controls its destiny in the chase for the Pac-12 South crown and will play in the title game if it defeats visiting Stanford on Friday. The Bruins have won five consecutive games and have a lot of momentum entering the match with the Cardinal, who have frustrated UCLA’s offense in recent seasons. “They are good tacklers and disciplined,” Bruins coach Jim Mora told reporters. “We’re going to have to be very precise in everything that we do in order to get yards against them.”

Stanford won’t have standout receiver and returner Ty Montgomery (team-high 61 receptions) after he departed last week’s victory over California with a shoulder injury. “Ty will be out of this game,” Cardinal coach David Shaw told reporters. “He will not play this game and hopefully we’ll get him ready for the bowl game, which looks like a distinct possibility.” Stanford has been out of the Pac-12 title game chase and is in the midst of its fewest victories since 2008.

TRENDS:

*Under is 12-3 in Cardinal last 15 conference games.
*Over is 4-0 in Bruins last 4 Friday games.
*Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.



(21) Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons (+7.5, 59.5)

Colorado State visits Air Force on Friday in the regular-season finale for both teams and should the No. 21 Rams prevail, they will become huge fans of Utah State. Colorado State is tied with No. 25 Boise State and Utah State atop the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference and can advance to the MWC title game with a victory, coupled with a Broncos loss to the Aggies on Saturday night. “At the end of the day, we can control only what we can control,” Rams senior quarterback Garrett Grayson, who has guided Colorado State to its first double-digit win season since 2002, told the Denver Post.

The Rams possess star power in sophomore wide receiver Rashard Higgins, who leads the nation in receiving yards and touchdowns, and Alabama transfer Dee Hart, a 1,000-yard rusher who scored six touchdowns in last week’s 58-20 victory over New Mexico. The Falcons saw their four-game winning streak snapped with a 30-14 loss at San Diego State on Nov. 21 as they began life without leading rusher Jacobi Owens, who is out for the season (foot). Air Force could also be slowed by an unspecified injury to quarterback Kale Pearson, who did not participate in team drills Monday but was present and in uniform.

TRENDS:

*Rams are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
*Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
*Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.



NCAAB:

Yale Bulldogs at (25) Providence Friars

LaDontae Henton and streaking Providence will try to avoid looking ahead when they host Yale on Friday. The 25th-ranked Friars, who rode Henton’s career-high 38 points and last-second shot deflection to a 75-74 win over Notre Dame in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic on Sunday, will next visit top-ranked Kentucky. Providence, ranked in a national poll for the first time since the end of the 2004 season, has won 38 straight home games against non-conference opponents.

The Bulldogs, picked to finish second in the Ivy League, have rebounded from a double-overtime loss at Quinnipiac in the opener to win five in a row, the latest an 82-60 home victory over Lafayette on Wednesday. Justin Sears led four players in double figures with 17 points and Yale had a 47-20 advantage on the glass. Providence has won five straight meetings with Yale, including a 76-74 triumph last Dec. 17 when Henton scored a big basket in the final minute to complete a 13-point effort.

TRENDS:

*Bulldogs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
*Over is 8-1 in Friars last 9 games following a ATS win.
*Bulldogs are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Providence.



James Madison Dukes at (17) Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State is blowing through mid-major competition with the most efficient offense in the country led by freshman D’Angelo Russell. The 17th-ranked Buckeyes try to stay undefeated when they host James Madison as part of the Buckeye Classic on Friday. Ohio State has won its last two games by an average of 42.5 points and is shooting 60.8 percent from the field as a team.

The Buckeyes went into Wednesday leading the nation in field-goal percentage and barely lowered the mark while shooting 60.7 percent in a 91-64 win over Campbell. “I’m not sure how much longer we can shoot at this clip, but I think guys are taking more pride in their shots and seeing the ball go through the basket,” coach Thad Matta told reporters. The Dukes are not shooting the ball as well but have won four straight since dropping their opener to Virginia.

TRENDS:

*Dukes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
*Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 games following a S.U. win.
*Buckeyes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
 
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WAYNE ROOT

MILLIONAIRES----AIR FORCE
____________________________
NO LIMIT CLUB---STANFORD
The Stanford Cardinals are 6-5 on the season and looking to escape the year by staying above .500. In order to win their 7th game, the Cardinals will have to head out to the Rose Bowl to take on the UCLA Bruins. Stanford will look to continue playing top notch defense. Right now the Cardinals are only allowing 16.5 points per game to opposing teams. They'll need to slow the game down in order to keep this one competitive. For last 4 years Stanford physical and dominating style has owned the PAC 12 but this season it's been down somewhat. UCLA had their huge game last week and this week it's all about recruiting players for the Cardinal in the lucrative high school player market. Stanford loves to put on their best in SoCal. Stanford id 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. TAKE STANFORD
 
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SB PROFESSOR

12 PM
344. South Florida +11*

3:30 PM
Air Force +7.5*

Rest of Games
319. N Illinois +7.5
317. Ball St. +10
322. Massachusetts +2
336. Missouri +3
334. South Alabama +8.5
 

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