Service Plays Friday 10/3/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAACF REPORT
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________


***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #6 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
__________________________________________________

#309 LOUISVILLE @ #310 SYRACUSE
TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Louisville -2.5, Total: 48.5

In its final season in the Big East in 2012, Louisville suffered its most lopsided defeat in the Charlie Strong era in Syracuse. The teams meet for the first time since as ACC rivals Friday when the Cardinals visit the Orange. Strong went 37-15 in four seasons at Louisville and entered Syracuse with a 9-0 mark two years ago before the Orange rolled to 45-26 win over the Cardinals, who ended in a four-way tie atop the Big East before upsetting then-No. 4 Florida in the Sugar Bowl.

First-year Louisville coach Bobby Petrino – in his second tour of duty with the Cardinals – had no such problem with Syracuse from 2003-06, winning each of the three meetings by at least 10 points. Louisville, which has won two in a row following last week’s 20-10 comeback victory over Wake Forest, will look forward to improving to 5-1 or better for the third straight season against a Syracuse team that forced five turnovers against No. 8 Notre Dame, only to lose 31-15. A win is critical for the possible bowl hopes of the Orange, who host No. 2 Florida State next week before playing four of their final six games on the road.

•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (4-1, 2-1 ACC): The Cardinals, who led the nation in rushing defense in 2013 (80.7 yards), are doing it again this season by holding opponents to 58.2 yards through five games after the Demon Deacons recorded minus-22 yards – the lowest total Louisville has allowed to an opponent since 2000. The Cardinals have forced 13 turnovers – the most through five contests since 2005 – nearly half of which have come courtesy of safety Gerod Holliman, who has at least one interception in four games and leads the country with six. Starting quarterback Will Gardner is questionable with a knee injury that forced him to miss the Wake Forest game.

•ABOUT SYRACUSE (2-2, 0-0 ACC): With Ashton Broyld recovering from a lower leg injury that is expected to keep him out another week or two, Jarrod West stepped up with a career-high eight catches for 103 yards against the Fighting Irish – becoming the 11th receiver in school annals with at least 100 career receptions. Prince Tyson-Gulley, who rushed for 98 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 2012 upset of Louisville, moved into second place in Syracuse history for career catches by a running back with 63. The Orange collected three turnovers in the first quarter against Notre Dame, one more than their season total entering the contest.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Cardinals rank second in the nation in third-down percentage defense (21.3).... In its two losses, Syracuse was penalized once every 16.3 plays outside the opponent’s 30-yard line, but once every 4.1 plays inside it.... Louisville is one of just four schools to rank among the nation's top 20 in all four major statistical categories (scoring, total, rushing and passing defense).... The Cardinals are 16-5 versus the spread in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49, and 15-5 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive unders since 1992.

•KEY STATS
--LOUISVILLE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus awful passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse since 1992.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 27.7, OPPONENT 21.9.

--LOUISVILLE is 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 25.6, OPPONENT 31.6.

--LOUISVILLE is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 34.9, OPPONENT 12.7.

--LOUISVILLE is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 19.8, OPPONENT 4.5.

--LOUISVILLE is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 19.8, OPPONENT 4.5.

--LOUISVILLE is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 14.4, OPPONENT 6.0.

--LOUISVILLE is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 19.5, OPPONENT 6.1.

--LOUISVILLE is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 19.2, OPPONENT 4.6.

--LOUISVILLE is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 14.7, OPPONENT 4.6.

--LOUISVILLE is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 17.5, OPPONENT 4.5.

--LOUISVILLE is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 15.2, OPPONENT 5.1.

--SYRACUSE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992.
The average score was SYRACUSE 39.2, OPPONENT 13.8.

--SYRACUSE is 29-12 UNDER (+15.7 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was SYRACUSE 13.9, OPPONENT 11.2.

•COACHING TRENDS
--BOB PETRINO is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was PETRINO 37.3, OPPONENT 24.2.

--BOB PETRINO is 43-26 OVER (+14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was PETRINO 36.8, OPPONENT 23.2.

--BOB PETRINO is 21-9 against the 1rst half line (+11.1 Units) in games played on turf in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was PETRINO 20.2, OPPONENT 9.3.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SYRACUSE is 6-4 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE since 1992.
--LOUISVILLE is 6-4 straight up against SYRACUSE since 1992.
--6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--SYRACUSE is 6-3 versus the first half line when playing against LOUISVILLE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
--Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--LOU is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
--LOU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
--Under is 20-8 in LOU last 28 games in October.

--SYR is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--SYR is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
--Over is 5-2-1 in SYR last 8 Friday games.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 50 times, while the underdog covered the spread 26 times. *EDGE against the spread =LOUISVILLE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 59 times, while the underdog won straight up 22 times. 72 games went under the total, while 29 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 40 times, while the underdog covered first half line 38 times. *No EDGE. 69 games went under first half total, while 30 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS:Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (LOUISVILLE) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 3.25 or less yards/play in 2 consecutive games.
(65-28 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.9%, +34.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 23.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.4, Opponent 10.3 (Total first half points scored = 20.7)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-10).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (99-55).
______________________________________

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#313 UTAH ST @ #314 BYU
TV: 10:15 PM EST, ESPN
Line: BYU -21, Total: 52

Utah State is hoping to have quarterback Chuckie Keeton back behind center when the Aggies host No. 19 Brigham Young in a non-conference game Friday night. Keeton, who started eight games as a freshman and all 13 as a sophomore before suffering a season-ending injury midway through last season, missed the last two games with a knee injury and his status remains uncertain. Keeton, who has 58 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions in his career, would have to give way to sophomore Darell Garretson, who has 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions while filling in for Keeton the last two seasons.

The Cougars are led by one of the top quarterbacks in the nation in Taysom Hill, who leads the team in rushing with 428 yards and seven rushing touchdowns while also throwing for 876 yards and six scores. BYU is also expected to have defensive lineman Bronson Kaufusi and running back Algie Brown back from foot and ankle injuries. Utah State will need to bounce back from a tough loss September 20th, in which they allowed the tying touchdown with just under five minutes remaining, had a field goal blocked in the final seconds and lost on the second play of overtime at Arkansas State 21-14.

•ABOUT UTAH STATE (2-2): The Aggies continue to miss 1,200-yard rusher Joey DeMartino, who exhausted his eligibility last season, as their current leading rusher is wide receiver JoJo Natson. Utah State is hoping to get Joe Hill back from an ankle injury that kept him out the last game. Hill, who started the first five games last season before suffering a season-ending knee injury, flashed some of his ability in a win against Idaho State on September 6th, rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown in the 40-20 victory.

•ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (4-0): Remington Peck is the only returning starter on the defensive line and one of the team leaders, earning captain as voted on by his teammates. Graham Rowley was a stalwart on the defensive line in 2011, left to serve a two-year mission and is back up front for the Cougars. Travis Tuiloma also played in all 13 games in 2011 before leaving on a two-year mission and has returned at linebacker for Brigham Young.

•PREGAME NOTES: Taysom Hill has 21 rushing touchdowns, leaving him one short of moving into No. 10 on the school’s career list.... Former BYU quarterback and Super Bowl winner Jim McMahon will have his No. 9 jersey retired at halftime.... Utah State has forced 11 turnovers in the last three games.... The Cougars are 0-12 versus the spread at home off back-to-back home games after scoring 14 or more points in its last game.... Utah State has won two of its last three matchups against ranked teams, including a 21-14 victory over No. 24 Northern Illinois in last season's Poinsettia Bowl.... The Aggies are 9-1 against the spread in road games off one or more consecutive unders, and 6-0 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.

•KEY STATS
--UTAH ST is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH ST 22.8, OPPONENT 16.2.

--UTAH ST is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was UTAH ST 18.2, OPPONENT 32.2.

--UTAH ST is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH ST 21.8, OPPONENT 18.7.

--UTAH ST is 11-1 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH ST 30.3, OPPONENT 18.5.

--UTAH ST is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) after playing 2 straight non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH ST 17.6, OPPONENT 6.1.

--UTAH ST is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH ST 14.6, OPPONENT 7.4.

--BYU is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus excellent rushing defenses -allowing <=2.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was BYU 24.5, OPPONENT 29.8.

--BYU is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BYU 24.7, OPPONENT 24.1.

--BYU is 22-8 UNDER (+13.2 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was BYU 28.3, OPPONENT 20.3.

--BYU is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BYU 11.7, OPPONENT 13.8.

--BYU is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total against Mountain West conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BYU 10.7, OPPONENT 3.8.

•COACHING TRENDS
--BRONCO MENDENHALL is 39-24 UNDER (+12.4 Units) in non-conference games as the coach of BYU.
The average score was BYU 30.8, OPPONENT 20.0.

--BRONCO MENDENHALL is 26-9 UNDER (+16.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of BYU.
The average score was BYU 28.3, OPPONENT 19.0.

--BRONCO MENDENHALL is 38-19 UNDER (+16.9 Units) in the first half of the season as the coach of BYU.
The average score was BYU 28.9, OPPONENT 20.1.

--BRONCO MENDENHALL is 20-3 against the 1rst half line (+16.7 Units) in a home game where the first half total is between 25 and 28 as the coach of BYU.
The average score was BYU 23.7, OPPONENT 7.0.

--BRONCO MENDENHALL is 16-6 OVER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total in a home game where the first half total is between 25 and 28 as the coach of BYU.
The average score was BYU 23.7, OPPONENT 7.0.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH ST is 8-3 against the spread versus BYU since 1992.
--BYU is 14-2 straight up against UTAH ST since 1992.
--7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--UTAH ST is 6-5 versus the first half line when playing against BYU since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
--Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Brigham Young.
--Aggies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Brigham Young.

•RECENT TRENDS
--USU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--USU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
--Under is 6-0 in USU last 6 Friday games.

--BYU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
--BYU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
--Under is 15-1 in BYU last 16 Friday games.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 12 times, while the favorite covered the spread 3 times. *EDGE against the spread =UTAH ST. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 15 times, while the underdog won straight up 1 times. 42 games went under the total, while 8 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 10 times, while the favorite covered first half line 4 times. *No EDGE. 39 games went under first half total, while 10 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
_________________________________________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GILZTIPS

LA DODGERS over 5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(312) Fresno State -3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BEN BURNS

MAIN EVENT Louisville/Syracuse Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

NFL Tech Trends

Friday, October 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

LOUISVILLE at SYRACUSE
Cards just 4-6-1 as visiting chalk since 2012.

Slight to Cuse, based on team trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at FRESNO STATE
FSU now 6-12-1 last 18 on board since late 2012. SDSU 8-4 vs. spread last 12 away from Qualcomm.

SDSU, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at BYU
Ags had covered five straight in series prior to LY's 31-14 loss at Logan . Cougs no covers first two at home TY after 14-8 mark in role previous four seasons. Utags no covers first four on board TY, and just 1-5 as dog for Matt Wells.

Slight to BYU, based on recent trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BYU hosts Utah State

UTAH STATE AGGIES (2-2) at BYU COUGARS (4-0)
Line & Total: BYU -21

No. 18 BYU Cougars hosts Utah State Friday night in an attempt to maintain a flawless record for the 2014 campaign.

Utah State has had a disappointing start to the season and while the school has earned wins as large favorites against both Idaho State and Wake Forest, it has failed to cover a spread in four contests this season. Last week the Aggies traveled to Arkansas State as 2.5-point underdogs and were unable to pull off an upset as they absorbed a 21-14 overtime loss despite outgaining their opponent 413-316 and forcing four turnovers. Over the first four games, they rank in the bottom half of the nation in nearly every category, both offensively and defensively, and will have a very tough matchup this week.

BYU has been impressive thus far with four consecutive SU victories, but has failed to cover the spread in each of its past two contests. In the most recent game against Virginia on Sept. 20, the Cougars overcame an early 10-3 deficit to win 41-33 as 16-point favorites, as they were outgained 519-332 in total yards while forcing two turnovers in the contest. These two programs have played some rather low-scoring games over the past two years with BYU coming away with a 31-14 victory as a 5.5-point underdog last season and winning 6-3 back in 2012 as a 6.5-point favorite. Trends show that Utah State is an impressive 10-3 ATS (77%) over the past three seasons after playing its previous game on the road, while the Cougars are 8-2 ATS (80%) after failing to cover the spread in two of their past three contests in the same timeframe.

As far as injuries are concerned, the Aggies may be without starting QB Chuckie Keeton (knee) and HB Joe Hill (ankle) who are questionable for this contest. BYU has top WR Jordan Leslie (ankle), HB Algernon Brown (ankle) and LB Bronson Kaufusi (ankle) all listed as questionable for the matchup.

Utah State distributes its offense between the running attack (154 YPG) and passing game (215 YPG) while ranking 94th among FBS schools in total yards (369 YPG). The Aggies have scored a meager 24.3 PPG (95th in nation) behind the arms of QBs Chuckie Keeton (426 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) and Darell Garretson (389 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT). Garretson has played the bulk of the past two contests with Keeton out, and has played well, going 27-for-46 (59%) with 268 yards (5.8 YPA) and 2 TD (1 INT) in the overtime loss last week.

The running back situation has been cloudy thus far with three different backs getting 20 or more attempts with HB Rashad Hall (141 rush yards, 1 TD) leading the way with 33 attempts (4.3 YPC). WR JoJo Natson has also been a big-play guy out of the backfield with 158 yards on a mere 17 attempts (9.3 YPC). Natson has also been a big part of the passing game with 172 yards on 20 catches (8.6 avg) and a touchdown while WR Hunter Sharp (305 rec. yards, 2 TD) has been the top option through the air. The defense has not looked great while allowing 25.8 PPG and giving up a fairly low 334.8 YPG (32nd in FBS). LB Zach Vigil (37 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) is the leader of the defense that will need to perform, especially with fellow all-MWC LB Kyler Fackrel out for the season.

BYU ranks among the top-50 FBS schools in total offense (449.3 YPG) this season thanks to an impressive performance so far from its ground game (230.3 YPG, 26th in FBS). QB Taysom Hill (876 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) has improved from last season, as he is completing 66.1% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and was a solid 13-for-23 (56.5%) with 187 yards and 2 TD (0 INT) in the team's last game two weeks ago. Hill's biggest threat does not come from his arm though, but rather his legs that have helped him gain 428 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) and 7 TD through the first four games. He leads the team in rushing, while HB Jamaal Williams (296 pass yards, 3 TD) is the top running back, averaging 4.9 YPC in three contests. Williams performed exceptionally well two weeks ago against Houston as he picked up 139 yards on 28 attempts (5.0 YPC) and two touchdowns.

WR Jordan Leslie (227 rec. yards, 1 TD) is the top guy in the passing game and could miss this game, leaving WR Mitch Matthews (134 rec. yards, 2 TD) as the No. 1 option. The defense has been impressive this season, as it has allowed 18.8 PPG (25th in FBS) while giving up 364.3 YPG. DB Craig Bills (26 tackles, 1 INT) and LB Alani Fua (24 tackles, 1 sack) have looked impressive amongst a defense that has proven to be full of playmakers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Utah State at BYU
By Brian Edwards

**Utah State at BYU**

-- As of Wednesday, most books had BYU (4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) installed as a 21-point favorite with a total of 52. The Westgate SuperBook has the Aggies at +950 on the money line (risk $100 to win $190).

-- BYU is led by junior quarterback Taysom Hill, who has completed 80-of-120 passes for 867 yards with a 6/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hill has also rushed for 428 yards and seven TDs, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

-- BYU has failed to cover the number in its first two home games, beating Houston (33-25) and Virginia (41-33) as a double-digit favorite. Bronco Mendenhall's team got ahead of the number with a pair of 15-point advantages (as a 14.5-point 'chalk) thanks to fourth-quarter scores in the win over UVA. However, the Cavs answered with TD drives both times, including a score on an 11-yard TD pass with 1:48 left to secure the backdoor cover.

-- BYU gave up 519 yards of total offense against Virginia and only produced 332 yards. The Cougars overcame those factors, in addition to 12 penalties for 133 yards, thanks to a 99-yard kickoff return for a TD from Adam Hine, a plus-two margin in the turnover department and a pair of fourth-down stops from their defense.

-- Utah State (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) is dealing with injuries galore. Star QB Chuckie Keeton and RB Joe Hill are 'questionable' against the Cougars. The Aggies have already lost starting WR Brandon Swindall to a season-ending injury and junior LB Kyler Fackrell to a torn ACL. Fackrell, a first-team All Mountain West selection in 2013, was injured in a 38-7 season-opening loss at Tennessee. In 2013, Fackrell had 82 tackles, five sacks and a pair of forced fumbles.

-- UPDATE: According to multiple reports early Wednesday night, Utah St. QB Chuckie Keeton will likely miss the rest of the season. He has the option of using a medical redshirt and returning to school in 2015. He tore his ACL in a home loss to BYU last year after beginning the season with 18 TD passes compared to only two interceptions. Keeton had been unable to regain that form before injuring his knee in a 36-24 non-covering home win over Wake Forest on Sept. 20. He was in street clothes for a 21-14 overtime loss at Arkansas State in Week 4. Keeton came into the 2014 season with 7,114 career yards (rushing and passing), an incredible 56/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 14 rushing TDs. However, in the Aggies' first three games, Keeton has been intercepted four times and has produced just three scores (two TD passes, one rushing score). If Keeton can't go in Provo, sophomore Darrell Garretson will get his ninth career start. Garretson led Utah State to six wins in seven starts last season, with the only defeat coming in a 24-17 loss at Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game.

-- Utah State is fourth in the nation in rush defense, allowing only 78.0 yards per game. The Aggies will face a BYU ground attack that ranks 26th in the country with a 231.2 yards-per-game average.

-- Despite missing a season-opening win at UConn due to a one-game suspension, BYU junior RB Jamaal Williams has rushed for 296 yards and three TDs while averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

-- BYU might be without its top WR Jordan Leslie, who is 'questionable' with an ankle injury. Leslie, a transfer from UTEP, has 19 receptions for 227 yards and one TD.

-- Utah State is 1-4 ATS as a road underdog on Matt Wells' watch. However, if we go back to 2007, the Aggies are 24-11 ATS in 35 contests as road 'dogs.

-- During Mendenhall's 10-year tenure, BYU owns a 27-21 spread record as a home favorite.

-- BYU has won three in a row over Utah State, but the Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six head-to-head meetings. The 'under' has cashed in each of the last seven meetings.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for BYU both overall (2-2) and at home (1-1).

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- In other Friday action at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, Louisville (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) will travel to the Carrier Dome to take on Syracuse in an ACC affair. As of Wednesday, most spots had U of L favored by 1.5 with a total of 47. The Cardinals, who failed to cover in a 20-10 home win over Wake Forest last week, have seen the 'under' cash at a 4-1 clip. Bobby Petrino's team will give true freshman QB Reggie Bonnafon his second straight start, while Will Gardner continues to recover from a knee injury sustained in a Sept. 20 win at Florida International. In his first start against the Demon Deacons, Bonnafon completed 16-of-32 throws for 206 yards and also rushed for 42 yards.

-- The other Friday game is on the CBS Sports Network at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, pitting Fresno State against San Diego State as a 2.5-point home favorite. The Aztecs will be without their starting QB (Quinn Kaehler) and their best WR (Ezell Ruffin). True freshman QB Nick Bawden will make his first career start for San Diego State

-- LSU has lost a key part of its secondary for the rest of the season. Dwayne Thomas, a true sophomore, tore his ACL in last week's blowout win over New Mexico State As a four-star member of the 2013 recruiting class, Thomas had three sacks and five passes broken up in his freshman campaign.

-- Maryland QB C.J. Brown is expected to be a game-time decision for Saturday's home game vs. Ohio State. Brown, who injured his (non-throwing) wrist in a 37-15 win at Indiana, has led the Terrapins to a 4-1 record by throwing for 996 yards with a 7/3 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for a team-high 266 yards and five TDs. Caleb Rowe would make his fourth career start if Brown can't play. Rowe, a junior, has completed 21-of-32 throws this year for 316 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Cardinals at Orange

Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orange (+3, 46.5)

In its final season in the Big East in 2012, Louisville suffered its most lopsided defeat in the Charlie Strong era in Syracuse. The teams meet for the first time since as ACC rivals Friday when the Cardinals visit the Orange. Strong went 37-15 in four seasons at Louisville and entered Syracuse with a 9-0 mark two years ago before the Orange rolled to 45-26 win over the Cardinals, who ended in a four-way tie atop the Big East before upsetting then-No. 4 Florida in the Sugar Bowl.

First-year Louisville coach Bobby Petrino – in his second tour of duty with the Cardinals – had no such problem with Syracuse from 2003-06, winning each of the three meetings by at least 10 points. Louisville, which has won two in a row following last week’s 20-10 comeback victory over Wake Forest, will look forward to improving to 5-1 or better for the third straight season against a Syracuse team that forced five turnovers against No. 8 Notre Dame, only to lose 31-15. A win is critical for the possible bowl hopes of the Orange, who host No. 2 Florida State next week before playing four of their final six games on the road.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw the Cardinals as 3.5-point favorites before dropping as low as -1.5 and then rebounding back to Louisville -3. Bettors have been hammering the under causing a drop from 48.5 to 46.5 since opening.

INJURY REPORT: Cardinals - RB L.J. Scott (Ques-Ankle), QB Will Gardner (Out-Knee) Orange - WR Brisly Estime (Ques-Ankle), WR Ashton Broyld (Out-Leg)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Louisville dominated Wake Forest last week despite only winning by 10 points (20-10). The Cardinals had a 421-100 total yards edge, and Wake Forest’s only touchdown came on a fumble recovery in the end zone. Louisville’s defense has been fantastic this season, holding opponents to just 14 points per game on 3.7 yards per play. Syracuse comes in off back-to-back losses to Maryland and Notre Dame. The Orange should hold a big rushing edge in this game as they are averaging 232.5 yards on the ground per game. Syracuse has played good on both sides off the ball despite their 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS record overall." Steve Merril

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (4-1, 2-1 ACC): The Cardinals, who led the nation in rushing defense in 2013 (80.7 yards), are doing it again this season by holding opponents to 58.2 yards through five games after the Demon Deacons recorded minus-22 yards – the lowest total Louisville has allowed to an opponent since 2000. The Cardinals have forced 13 turnovers – the most through five contests since 2005 – nearly half of which have come courtesy of safety Gerod Holliman, who has at least one interception in four games and leads the country with six. Starting quarterback Will Gardner is questionable with a knee injury that forced him to miss the Wake Forest game.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (2-2, 0-0): With Ashton Broyld recovering from a lower leg injury that is expected to keep him out another week or two, Jarrod West stepped up with a career-high eight catches for 103 yards against the Fighting Irish – becoming the 11th receiver in school annals with at least 100 career receptions. Prince Tyson-Gulley, who rushed for 98 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 2012 upset of Louisville, moved into second place in Syracuse history for career catches by a running back with 63. The Orange collected three turnovers in the first quarter against Notre Dame, one more than their season total entering the contest.

TRENDS:

*Cardinals are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
*Under is 5-1 in Orange last 6 games following a ATS loss.
*Under is 16-5 in Cardinals last 21 games overall.
*Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 70.29% are backing Louisville -3. Total bettors are near split with 52% on the under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NLDS - Cardinals at Dodgers

National League Division Series - Game 1
St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) at Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68)
First pitch: Friday, 6:35 p.m. ET
Line and Total: Los Angeles -195, St. Louis +182, Total: 5.5

Two storied franchises, the Cardinals and Dodgers, open their best-of-5 NLDS with Game 1 in L.A. on Friday night.

St. Louis just barely edged out Pittsburgh for the NL Central title by going 10-5 since Sept. 12, and then clinching the division with a 1-0 victory over Arizona on the last day of the season. With an offense ranked eighth-worst in the league in runs (619), the Cardinals earned most of their victories with solid pitching which had an overall 3.50 ERA. Their hottest hitter coming into the postseason is 1B Matt Adams (.288 BA) who has gone 11-for-34 (.324) with three doubles, 3 RBI and four runs over his past nine contests.

Los Angeles played up to its potential in the 2014 campaign and beat out the Giants for the NL West title over the last series of the year. The team with the league's highest payroll finished the season on a high note with victories in eight of the final 10 games, including winning the final five contests. The offense had the best on-base percentage (.333) in all of baseball this year while scoring 718 runs (6th in majors). OF Matt Kemp (.287 BA) closed out the year in impressive form by going 12-for-30 (.400) with four home runs, 12 RBI and nine runs over his final eight contests. The pitching matchup will be a great one as RHP Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.38 ERA) faces the best pitcher in baseball, LHP Clayton Kershaw (21-3, 1.77 ERA).

The Cardinals have not played well on the road this year with a 39-42 record (.481) and will be facing a Dodgers team which has gone 45-36 (.556) in front of their fans. Since the beginning of the 2012 campaign, L.A. is 14-11 in this matchup while going a solid 9-5 at home, including taking 3-of-4 games at Chavez Ravine earlier this season.

Bettors should keep an eye on the fact that the Dodgers are only 19-26 (.422) after two or more consecutive wins this season while going 50-27 (.649) after having won six or seven of their previous eight games over the past two seasons.

The Cardinals come into this game with no injuries, while SS Dee Gordon (hip) is listed as day-to-day for the host Dodgers.

Adam Wainwright has won 19 or more games in four of his past five seasons while pitching under a 2.95 ERA, and has thrown at least 198 frames in each of the past five years. His consistency has come from his ability to control the strike zone with a walk rate of 2.0 BB/9 in 2014 while holding batters to a mere 10 homers in his 227 innings (0.40 HR/9). Wainwright finished off the season in spectacular fashion, going 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA while having a 39:5 K/BB ration in five September starts. Despite a 4-6 career record (6-7 team record) against his opponent, Wainwright has a strong 2.83 ERA and 1.10 WHIP when facing the Dodgers.

He has lost his past three outings in this matchup despite allowing only six runs in 22 frames. OF Andre Ethier (9-for-33, 3 doubles, 2 HR, 6 RBI) has been one of the few L.A. players able to produce off of the ace, while 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Matt Kemp and SS Hanley Ramirez are a combined 12-for-66 (.182) with 15 strikeouts when facing Wainwright.

The relievers for St. Louis are 26-23 (.531) this year with a 3.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and have been successful saving games in 55-of-72 (76%) attempts. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (3.20 ERA, 45 saves) allowed far too many free passes (5.4 BB/9) while holding opposing hitters to just 0.26 HR/9 and striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings.

Clayton Kershaw has been in a league of his own over the past few seasons with an ERA under 3.00 in each of the past six years while pitching to a mark better than a 2.00 ERA in each of the past two years. Amazingly, Kershaw improved on his 2013 Cy Young performance with a career-best 1.77 ERA, 10.9 K/9 and 1.41 BB/9 this season. He has kept 81.6% of runners on base in 2014 and forced 51.8% of balls in play to be hit on the ground, which are also both career-best marks. He has allowed more than three runs just once on the year and was a perfect 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA over the final month of the regular season.

Kershaw has actually not done too well against the Cardinals in his career, going 5-7 (8-9 team record) with a 3.69 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, but he did throw a quality start in both of his outings this year, including seven shutout innings with 13 K's at Dodger Stadium on June 29. OF Peter Bourjos (4-for-11, 1 HR, 2 RBI) is the only player on the St. Louis roster with a homer against the lefty while OF Matt Holliday (9-for-35, 10 K's, 10 BB's) and 3B Matt Carpenter (5-for-18, 4 K's) have been decent in the matchup.

In the regular season, L.A.’s bullpen was a subpar 18-24 (.429) with a 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, while going 47-for-61 (77%) in save opportunities. Closer Kenley Jansen (2.76 ERA, 44 saves) struck out a wealth of batters (13.9 K/9) and was on the losing side of batters hitting .350 BABIP against him.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kershaw vs Wainwright in stellar matchup

LOS ANGELES (AP) - The last time the Los Angeles Dodgers met the St. Louis Cardinals in the playoffs, Clayton Kershaw had a terrible outing and the Dodgers were bounced out of the postseason.

A year later and a round earlier, Kershaw has a chance to erase those memories in Friday's NL Division Series opener against Adam Wainwright.

Kershaw was 10-2 with a 1.70 ERA at Dodger Stadium during the regular season. Wainwright hasn't been nearly as successful at Chavez Ravine. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.30 ERA in seven games, including six starts.

Kershaw says losing 9-0 to the Cardinals in Game 6 of last year's NLCS stuck with him for much of the winter.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly says Kershaw uses every setback as extra incentive to fuel him.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Strasburg gets Game 1 start in NLDS

WASHINGTON (AP) - Stephen Strasburg's postseason debut will come in Game 1 of the NL Division Series on Friday when he takes the mound at home for the Nationals against the San Francisco Giants.

The announcement by Washington manager Matt Williams on Thursday was no surprise: Strasburg was the team's opening-day starter and he's been much better at home than away.

In 18 starts at Nationals Park this season, Strasburg went 9-3 with a 2.56 ERA. In 16 road starts, he was 5-8 with a 3.82 ERA. Still, one of the right-hander's worst showings came at home against San Francisco. On Aug. 24, the last time the teams met, Strasburg left after only four innings, having allowed five runs.

Strasburg was held out of the 2012 playoffs by the Nationals to protect his surgically repaired right elbow.

Jordan Zimmermann, who threw a no-hitter in Sunday's regular-season finale, will start Game 2 at Washington on Saturday. Doug Fister will start Game 3 at San Francisco.

Williams would not say who his starter would be if there is a Game 4, although that is expected to be Gio Gonzalez.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

National League Playoff Betting Preview

San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals (-175, 6.5)

After being reduced to a spectator during his team's postseason run two years ago, Stephen Strasburg makes his playoff debut on Friday as the Washington Nationals host the San Francisco Giants in Game 1 of the best-of-5 National League Division Series. The 26-year-old fireballer was held out of the 2012 postseason by Washington in a bid to protect his surgically repaired right elbow. Fast forward to the present, it's full steam ahead as the NL East-champion Nationals breezed to the league's best record of 96-66 and also won five of the seven meetings with the Giants.

San Francisco won its eighth consecutive postseason game dating to the 2012 NLCS and a date with Washington after cruising to an 8-0 rout of Pittsburgh in the wild-card game on Wednesday. Brandon Crawford provided an unlikely jolt with a grand slam and portly Pablo Sandoval added two hits, two runs and an over-the-railing acrobatic catch in the lopsided victory. Sandoval is 35-for-106 (.330) in his career versus Washington and .317 this season against right-handers, but is just 3-for-12 with five strikeouts when he has opposed Strasburg.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (14-11, 3.14)

Peavy overcame losing his first three outings since being acquired from Boston by winning six of seven before settling for a pair of no-decisions to end the regular season. The 33-year-old seems to have put his penchant for surrendering the long ball on hold, allowing just three in 12 outings (78 2/3 innings) with the Giants after permitting 20 in as many appearances (124 innings) with the Red Sox. Peavy was blitzed for three homers and six runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last meeting with the Nationals.

Strasburg finished the season with a flourish, tossing 20 shutout innings over his last three starts while posting victories in six of his last seven decisions. The former top overall pick wasn't as fortunate in his last meeting with the Giants, allowing five runs on eight hits in four innings before escaping with a no-decision on Aug. 24. That contest was in San Francisco, but Strasburg has pitched far better in 18 starts at home - securing a 9-3 mark with a 2.56 ERA.

TRENDS:

* Nationals are 4-1 in Strasburg's last five starts versus the Giants.
* Giants are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings in Washington.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (-195, 5.5)

The Los Angeles Dodgers look to exact revenge for last year's postseason dismissal when they host the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of their National League Division Series on Friday. The NL West champion Dodgers were ousted by St. Louis in six games in the 2013 NL Championship Series, ending their bid for their first pennant since 1988. St. Louis went on to lose to Boston in the World Series in six.

Los Angeles claimed its second straight division title this season, finishing two games behind NL East champion Washington for the best record in the senior circuit. It rolls into the postseason with a five-game winning streak and an 8-2 mark over its final 10 regular-season contests, while St. Louis held off wild-card recipient Pittsburgh to capture its second consecutive NL Central crown. The Cardinals have made the playoffs five of the last six years and reached the World Series two of the last three seasons.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.38 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (21-3, 1.77)

Wainwright had another sensational season, posting at least 19 victories for the fourth time in five years and matching his career high of 20 originally set in 2010. The 33-year-old ended the campaign with a five-start winning streak, allowing a total of two runs and tossing two of his five complete games over his final four outings. Wainwright has posted a 2.90 ERA in 14 career games - 11 starts - against the Dodgers but owns only a 4-5 overall record and a 1-3 mark at Los Angeles, where he suffered a 1-0 complete-game loss on June 26 in which he allowed just five hits.

The only thing likely to keep Wainwright from capturing his first NL Cy Young Award was the incredible 2014 performance by Kershaw, who led the major leagues in wins, ERA, complete games (six) and WHIP (0.86) while finishing second in opposing batting average (.196). The 26-year-old, who is ticketed for his third overall Cy Young Award and second in a row, closed the season by winning each of his last seven starts - working eight innings six times and yielding fewer than two earned runs on five occasions. Kershaw has been ordinary against St. Louis over his career, going 5-5 with a 3.46 ERA in 14 outings, but struck out 13 over seven scoreless innings in a victory at home June 29.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in Wainwright's last four starts versus the Dodgers.
* Cardinals are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.
* Cardinals are 1-4 in Wainwright's last five road starts versus the Dodgers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wainwright on par with Kershaw in ace battle
Justin Hartling

Though Clayton Kershaw is undeniably the best pitcher in baseball, Adam Wainwright could be matching him Friday. Kershaw is sporting a 10-2 record with a 1.70 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season, while Wainwright is 11-6 with a 1.72 ERA on the road.

The two aces have faced each other four times in their careers with the teams combining for six runs and 11.5 K's per game.Wainwright on par with Kershaw in ace battle
Justin Hartling

Though Clayton Kershaw is undeniably the best pitcher in baseball, Adam Wainwright could be matching him Friday. Kershaw is sporting a 10-2 record with a 1.70 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season, while Wainwright is 11-6 with a 1.72 ERA on the road.

The two aces have faced each other four times in their careers with the teams combining for six runs and 11.5 K's per game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nationals Park truly is home for Strasburg
Justin Hartling

As if Stephen Strasburg wasn't already good enough, he has been absolutely lights out at home this season. The young ace is 9-3 with a 2.56 ERA at Nationals Park this season.

To make things worse for the Giants, Strasburg is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last three starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Shoemaker quietly dominating over past three months
Justin Hartling

Though he may not get much fanfare, Matt Shoemaker has become one of the top pitchers on the Angels over the past three months. The rightie has started 14 games since the start of July and the Angels have gone 12-2 during those starts.

Shoemaker has only allowed more than two runs three times since July 1 while striking out an average of five batters per game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Verlander conquering Orioles in his career
Justin Hartling

They may be no team that Justin Verlander has been more dominant against in his career than the Baltimore Orioles. Over his nine year career, Verlander has faced the O's 15 times and the Tigers have gone 12-3 in those starts.

The rightie has only allowed 2.6 runs per game while striking out six per outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Fargo

Friday night lights Special

Louisville -3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

September's ACC Atlantic Division Super Total of the Month!!!!!
Louisville/Syracuse under 47 1/2


NCAA Best Bets
San Diego State/Fresno State under 57 1/2
Utah State/BYU over 51


2014 National League Divisional Series Total of the Year!!!!!
San Francisco/Washington over 6 1/2


MLB Best Bets
St Louis/Los Angeles under 5 1/2
Detroit/Baltimore over 7 1/2
Kansas City/Los Angeles over 7 1/2