Service Plays Friday 10/24/14

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New sponsor of the Rx Service Thread: Cappers File - The Largest Online Database For Rating Handicappers


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StatFox Super Situations

CFL | HAMILTON at TORONTO
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season
35-9 since 1997. ( 79.5% | 25.1 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

CFL | MONTREAL at OTTAWA
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (MONTREAL) off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off a loss against a division rival
31-7 since 1997. ( 81.6% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

CFL | HAMILTON at TORONTO
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (HAMILTON) in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after outgaining opp by 120 or more total yards in their previous game
27-5 since 1997. ( 84.4% | 21.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | CAROLINA at EDMONTON
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (EDMONTON) terrible defensive team - allowing 3+ goals/game on the season, after allowing 2 goals or less in 2 straight games
57-16 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.1% | 35.1 units )
 
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Game of the Day: Oregon vs. California

Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears (+17.5, 79)

Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota threw a career-high six touchdown passes at California two years ago and the Heisman Trophy candidate will return to California's Memorial Stadium for the first time since that performance when the No. 7 Ducks face the Golden Bears in a Pac-12 game Friday night. Mariota will also attempt to remain error free in the interception department as he has thrown 238 consecutive passes without being picked off, a streak that dates back to last season. The streak is the second longest in conference history behind the 353 Mariota made without an interception during his first two years.

California also has a gifted signal caller in Jared Goff, who owns the second-best quarterback rating in the Pac-12 behind Mariota and has thrown 24 touchdown passes against four interceptions while eclipsing the 300-yard barrier in five straight games. Bryce Treggs and Kenny Lawler continue to be solid options for Goff at the wide receiver position, but Stephen Anderson appears to be gaining favor as well, catching at least four passes in each of the last four games. Mariota will likely continue looking in the direction of wide receiver Devon Allen, the NCAA defending champion in the 110 hurdles who has six touchdown receptions.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1. LINE: Oregon -17.5

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Cal +17 before money came in forcing a slight jump to +17.5. The total has seen a slight change as well, opening at 79.5 before dropping to 79.

INJURY REPORT: Oregon - WR Keanon Lowe (Ques-Hamstring) Cal - WR Trevor Davis (Out-Head)

WEATHER FORECAST: Clear skies and mild temperatures are expected for the game. At kickoff the temperature will be 71°F but will quickly drop to 60°F by the fourth quarter.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Cal had 56 yards on 31 rushes last week and 64 yards on 33 carries the week before. Conversely, Oregon leads the Pac-12 with 217.3 rushing yards per game. The game opened Ore -17 and currently stands -17.5. Looks to be a very boring game and the public has not gotten involved as of yet. Oregon will have a walk over in this game and can prob name their own score." - Scott Kaminsky

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Ducks have rounded back into the playoff contenders they were expected to be with the return of two injured starting offensive linemen, making QB Marcus Mariota much more dangerous. Although they’ve been outgained in each of their last five games, the Bears numbers are up across the board this year as opposed to last. The question is whether Oregon puts together the complete game they are capable of, or if they get caught napping in a nasty Stanford look ahead revenger up next." - Marc Lawrence

ABOUT OREGON (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12): The Ducks and Golden Bears have played the same two teams in their last two games. Oregon beat a solid UCLA squad by 12 and followed up with a 35-point victory last weekend against Washington, while Cal lost to the Huskies by 24 and was edged by two points last weekend against the Bruins. Oregon running back Royce Freeman continues to dominate, rushing for at least 100 yards in the last two games, owning 11 touchdowns and sitting within 76 rushing yards of breaking the freshman program for a season.

ABOUT CALIFORNIA (4-3, 2-3): The Golden Bears will definitely need to improve on defense if they expect to keep up with the Ducks. California enters the game giving up an average of 38.4 points, which ranks 117th out of the 125 FBS teams. One of the bright spots was safety Griffin Piatt, the team’s leading tackler who also has a team-high three interceptions, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury against Washington.

*Ducks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
*Under is 7-3-1 in Golden Bears last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
*Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
*Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 55.3 percent are taking the Ducks -17.5 with 53.5 percent of the community taking the over.
 
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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | FLA ATLANTIC at MARSHALL
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (MARSHALL) dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

CFB | AKRON at BALL ST
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (BALL ST) average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games
64-43 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.8% | 0.0 units )

CFB | N ILLINOIS at E MICHIGAN
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 off 1 or more consecutive unders, poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-5 this year. ( 37.5% | -2.5 units )
 
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[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Saskatchewan at Calgary[/h] The Stampeders host Saskatchewan on Friday night and come into the contest with a 5-0-1 ATS record in their last 6 games in Week 18 of the season. Calgary is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-10 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (10/23)
Game 291-292: Montreal at Ottawa (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 113.718; Ottawa 109.892
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Montreal by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+6 1/2); Under
Game 293-294: Saskatchewan at Calgary (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 106.793; Calgary 121.006
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 14; 42
Vegas Line: Calgary by 10 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-10 1/2); Under
 
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World Series Betting Preview: Royals at Giants

Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants (-127, 7)

Tim Hudson pitches in a World Series game for the first time in his 16-year-career when the San Francisco Giants host the Kansas City Royals in Game 3 on Friday. The 39-year-old Hudson will attempt to pitch the Giants into the series lead after the teams split two games in Kansas City. “Obviously, when you go 16 years without having been able to experience something like this, you wonder if it’s going to happen,” Hudson told reporters. “I’m no different than anybody.”

The Royals avoided a series hole by producing a 7-2 victory in Game 2 to halt San Francisco’s streak of seven consecutive World Series wins. Kansas City designated hitter Billy Butler is 3-for-6 with two RBIs over the first two games to break out of the postseason doldrums that have him looking for his first homer. Giants catcher Buster Posey also hasn’t homered and is 2-for-9 in the World Series while red-hot third baseman Pablo Sandoval (4-for-9 in the World Series) also hasn’t gone deep despite batting .346 in the postseason.

LINE HISTORY: The line has not shifted too much since opening climbing just two points from San Francisco -125 to -127. The total opened at 7 and has yet to move.

WEATHER REPORT: A cloudy night is in store for Game 3, but there is little chance of precipitation. There temperature is expected to be a comfortable 64°F with a high humidity.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Giants got what they wanted in Kansas City, earning a split before heading back home to San Francisco. It's important to note that the Royals have been one of the best road teams in baseball all year, going 51-34. That's a better record than the Giants have posted at home (49-37). The pitching matchup is virtually a wash in Game 3 with Guthrie squaring off against Hudson. I'm anticipating a tight contest, with a late clutch hit proving to be the difference. The total could offer some value at '7' as a low-scoring affair should be in order after back-to-back blowouts. Consider playing the under." - Sean Murphy

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Jeremy Guthrie (0-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Giants RH Tim Hudson (0-0, 3.29)

Guthrie is making his second start of the postseason, having received a no-decision against Baltimore on Oct. 14 when he gave up one run and three hits in five innings. He spent part of 2012 in the National League with the Colorado Rockies and has made two career starts at AT&T Park, going 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings. “He’s a tremendous clubhouse presence and he’s a guy with a lot of experience,” Royals manager Ned Yost said in a press conference.

Hudson will be pitching for the first time since taking a no-decision against St. Louis on Oct. 14 when he allowed four runs and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings. He lost his final four regular-season starts and Giants manager Bruce Bochy said at a press conference that Hudson’s issues were tied to a nagging hip injury. “It’s hard enough to play this game when you’re healthy but when you’re pitching and your hip’s bothering you a little – he’s a warrior,” Bochy said. “He was never complaining, he was never making excuses but it was a fact.”

TRENDS:

*Royals are 5-1 in Guthries last 6 road starts.
*Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
*Over is 11-4-2 in Royals last 17 games following an off day.
*Over is 6-0 in Giants last 6 overall.

CONSENSUS: 55 percent of users are backing the Giants -127 with 62 percent backing the over.
 
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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | KANSAS CITY at SAN FRANCISCO
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), on a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors
108-45 since 1997. ( 70.6% | 46.1 units )
20-12 this year. ( 62.5% | 3.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | KANSAS CITY at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 39-20 (+21.5 Units) against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.
The average score was: SAN FRANCISCO (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.2)
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Virginia Tech (+2-1/2) on Thursday and likes the Royals on Friday.

The deficit is 1067 sirignanos.
 
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Hondo

Hondo’s big on Giants

Hondo, who is tied for the lead in the Bettor’s Guide Best Bet Standings, kicked up his heels Thursday night with the Broncos, who beat the number against San Diego to lower the deficit to 1,000 beradinos.

Friday night: Mr. Aitch expects Hudson to get into the flow and win his Game 3 duel with Guthrie. Ten units on the Giants.
 
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[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h] [h=2]Oregon at California[/h] The Ducks head to Cal tonight for a Pac-12 matchup against the Golden Bears and come into the contest with an 0-4 ATS record in their last 4 Friday games. California is the pick (+18 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by only 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: California (+18 1/2). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (10/22)
Game 109-110: Troy at South Alabama (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 61.366; South Alabama 85.248
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 24; 58
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 13 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-13 1/2); Over
Game 111-112: South Florida at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 72.132; Cincinnati 86.710
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 14 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 10 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-10 1/2); Under
Game 113-114: BYU at Boise State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 85.094; Boise State 87.989
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 3; 45
Vegas Line: Boise State by 7; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (+7); Under
Game 115-116: Oregon at California (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 105.473; California 90.825
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 14 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: Oregon by 18 1/2; 77
Dunkel Pick: California (+18 1/2); Under
 
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[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Kansas City at San Francisco[/h] The Series shifts to San Francisco for tonight's Game 3 as the Giants come into the contest with a 10-3 record in Tim Hudson's last 13 starts as a home favorite. San Francisco is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 905-906: Kansas City at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 11.442; San Francisco (Hudson) 12.886
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Under
 
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[h=1]Today's NHL Picks[/h] [h=2]Tampa Bay at Winnipeg[/h] The Lightning (4-2-1) head to Winnipeg tonight to face a Jets team that is 1-7 in its last 8 games versus a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125). Here are all of today's NHL picks.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 1-2: Dallas at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.452; New Jersey 11.894
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-130); Over
Game 3-4: Tampa Bay at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 12.221; Winnipeg 10.733
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Under
Game 5-6: Vancouver at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.429; Colorado 11.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130); Under
Game 7-8: Carolina at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.119; Edmonton 10.209
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+145); Over
Game 9-10: Columbus at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.522; Anaheim 12.639
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
 

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Baseball Crusher
Kansas City Royals + SF Giants OVER 7
(System Record: 110-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 110-82

Rest of the Plays
San Francisco Giants -124 over KC Royals
 

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Football Crusher
California +18 over Oregon
(System Record: 18-4, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 18-21-1

Rest of the Plays
Brigham Young +7 over Boise
South Florida+10.5 over Cincy
South Alabama + Troy OVER 54.5
 

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