Service Plays Friday 10/17/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Bob

(312) ***HOUSTON (-7) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -9.5, 1-Star at -10.


***HOUSTON (-7) 31 Temple 15
Houston struggled offensively the first 5 games with John O’Korn at quarterback so coach Tony Levine decided to turn to wide receiver Greg Ward Jr last week. Ward was a change of pace quarterback for the Cougars last season and was an efficient 19 for 29 with no interceptions while averaging 8.6 yards per pass play and running for 202 yards on 41 runs. I speculated last week that Ward’s yards per pass play numbers would drop as a starting quarterback because when he was inserted last season opponents were playing him to run the ball, which made it easier to throw it. Ward has averaged only 5.0 yards on 50 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) but that’s a significant upgrade over O’Korn, who has averaged only 4.7 yppp despite facing teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average QB. Ward not only elevated the pass attack last week against a good Memphis defense but he ran for 109 yards as well. Ward also has thrown just 1 inception on 77 career pass attempts while O’Korn had thrown 8 picks this season on 172 passes. Aside from Ward’s running, Houston has a good stable of running backs that all average 6.0 ypr or higher and the Cougars average 6.5 yards per rushing play if you take out O’Korn’s bad rushing numbers. Houston’s offense has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season but they rate at +0.1 yppl with Ward at quarterback (the running component was based on Ward’s 5.7 yards per rushing play career average not his 6.8 yprp average this season, which was skewed by a 64 yard run last week) and the turnovers should drop too. Temple’s defense has been 0.5 yards per play worse than average in 4 games against FBS opponents (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yprp against an average team) and the math projects 448 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Cougars with Ward Jr. at quarterback.

Temple’s sub-par attack, averaging 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack, is not likely to keep up in this game against a very good Houston defense that’s yielded just 19.2 points per game and 4.4 yppl to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. The Owls are projected to gain just 290 total yards in this game and overall I favor Houston by 16 ½ points in this game. The adjustments for Ward at quarterback were about 4 ½ points so I would have favored Houston by 12 points without those adjustments. Temple seems better than they actually are because of a +9 turnover margin but Houston is projected to have a 0.7 fewer turnovers than Temple in this game now that the interception prone O’Korn has a headset on instead of a helmet. My math model gives Houston a very profitable 60.7% chance of covering at -7 points (based on the historical performance of my model) and would still be a 55.1% play at -9 ½ points and a profitable 53.4% play at -10. I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (up to -125 odds), for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 ½ points and for 1-Stars at -10 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Ottawa at Hamilton[/h] The Tiger-Cats host Ottawa on Friday night and come into the contest with an 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 Friday games. Hamilton is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-11 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (10/15)

Game 491-492: Ottawa at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 104.858; Hamilton 119.924 Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 15; 41 Vegas Line: Hamilton by 11 1/2; 45 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-11 1/2); Under

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
St. Louis Cardinals + SF UNDER 6
(System Record: 109-3, lost last 4 games)
Overall Record: 109-80

 

[tgunn11]

Football Crusher
Virginia Tech +1.5 over Pittsburgh - pending
Temple+7 over Houston
(System Record: 16-3, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 16-16-1

Rest of the Plays
Fresno State + Boise State OVER 63
Temple + Houston UNDER 51

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Montreal Canadiens -120 over Boston Bruins - pending
Columbus Blue Jackets -160 over Calgary Flames
(System Record: 2-1, lost last 4 games)
Overall Record: 2-4

Rest of the Plays
Florida Panthers -105 over Buffalo Sabres
Winnipeg Jets -120 over Nashville
Edmonton Oilers +123 over Vancouver

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Libertad + River Plate UNDER 2 - Conmebol pending
Quilmes + Atletico Rafaela OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 649-22, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 649-538-97

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BEN BURNS

Friday FEAST! Houston

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVID GLISAN SPORTS

(51) Calgary +150
(55) Detroit +110
(59/60) Vancouver/Edmonton Over 5.5 (-105)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

marc lawrence phone plays

TEMPLE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CFB | MARSHALL at FLA INTERNATIONAL
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (MARSHALL) dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

CFB | CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (CLEMSON) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season
86-56 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.6% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h] [h=2]Fresno State at Boise State[/h] The Bulldogs head to Boise State tonight to face a Broncos team that is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 games versus Fresno State. Boise State is the pick (-17) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 20 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-17). Here are all of this week's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (10/15)

Game 309-310: Fresno State at Boise State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 74.940; Boise State 95.399 Dunkel Line: Boise State by 20 1/2; 66 Vegas Line: Boise State by 17; 61 Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-17); Over

Game 311-312: Temple at Houston (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Temple 89.927; Houston 94.568 Dunkel Line: Houston by 4 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: Temple (+7 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

[h=1]Today's NHL Picks[/h] [h=2]Detroit at Toronto[/h] The Red Wings head to Toronto tonight and come into the contest with an 11-2 record in their last 13 Friday games. Detroit is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Calgary at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.221; Columbus 11.342 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-165); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+145); Under

Game 53-54: Florida at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.512; Buffalo 10.092 Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-110); 5 Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Over

Game 55-56: Detroit at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.569; Toronto 11.126 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-125); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Over

Game 57-58: Nashville at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.809; Winnipeg 11.712 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-125); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+105); Under

Game 59-60: Vancouver at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.975; Edmonton 9.512 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-140); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-140); Over

Game 61-62: Minnesota at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 13.210; Anaheim 12.339 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Boise St -17
Temple +7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Friday

Canucks -145

Hamilton -11

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play Fri Anaheim -150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

Hondo cashed with the Giants in his NLCS investment Thursday night but gave it back with the Patriots so the deficit held steady at 1,140 carrs.

Friday night: Mr. Aitch is totally overwhelmed by the Boise State-Fresno State matchup. As a result he will put 10 units on the total to go over 63¹/₂.

 

[dmurda2122]

Paul Leiner:Sorry guys, 2-1 last night but I made a bad call on Va Tech. 8-2 now in 2000* plays and tonight I am big on Temple. Good luck

2000* CFB Temple +7.5
100* CFB Fresno State +17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Budin

100 DIME WINNER # 5 IN A ROW

Temple +7.5 buy half point if your line Is 6.5 - 7