Marc Lawrence
Double-Dime Bet
Memphis +6.0 vs Louisville
The Tigers host the Cardinals in a Conference USA clash Friday night with revenge on their minds from a 56-49 loss the last time these two teams met in 2004. For Memphis they have played much better than its 3-3 record would indicate as they've outgained five of their six opponents on the playing field. Meanwhile Louisville checks in off a revenge loss at home against Connecticut. With Memphis head coach Tommy West 6-0 ATS in his college head coaching career as a home dog in games after his team scored 30 or more points in its last game, look for the Tigers to improve to 10-1 ATS as a dog in this series here tonight. Grab the points with Memphis.
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Double-Dime Bet
Memphis +6.0 vs Louisville
The Tigers host the Cardinals in a Conference USA clash Friday night with revenge on their minds from a 56-49 loss the last time these two teams met in 2004. For Memphis they have played much better than its 3-3 record would indicate as they've outgained five of their six opponents on the playing field. Meanwhile Louisville checks in off a revenge loss at home against Connecticut. With Memphis head coach Tommy West 6-0 ATS in his college head coaching career as a home dog in games after his team scored 30 or more points in its last game, look for the Tigers to improve to 10-1 ATS as a dog in this series here tonight. Grab the points with Memphis.
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Matty O'Shea
PHI (-102) vs LOS
Dime Bet
Bet Philadelphia to go up 2-0 in this series with another win as my Single Dime NLCS Side Play O' the Day.
TAM (-115) vs BOS
Double-Dime Bet
Boston is also just 1-9 in the last 10 meetings at Tampa, so back the Rays as my Double Dime ALCS Side Play O' the Week.
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PHI (-102) vs LOS
Dime Bet
Bet Philadelphia to go up 2-0 in this series with another win as my Single Dime NLCS Side Play O' the Day.
TAM (-115) vs BOS
Double-Dime Bet
Boston is also just 1-9 in the last 10 meetings at Tampa, so back the Rays as my Double Dime ALCS Side Play O' the Week.
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vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
904 TAM (-120) Bodog vs 903 BOS
Analysis:
*** MLB ALCS 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***
(Shields vs Matsuzaka)
This should be an excellent series, and Tonight we have the all important Game 1 of the ALCS...and I just can't see any Value in going against the Home Team in this one...
For starters, the Rays have WON "71%" of their Home Games in 2008, and that tells us that we could have laid -240 on them at home and still turned a Profit...More importantly, Boston was average at best on the road, and in the "18" game played between these 2 clubs in the season...ONLY "3" have been won by the road team...and 2 of those wins came from the Rays at Fenway...
As we saw in the Phillies selection last night, many times edge in price alone is enough to make a wager...but Tonight we have much more going for us by backing the Rays...
Dice K has been incredible on the road this year, and to have success against him, you need patience...Well if you remember when he faced the Angels and we backed him and won...my reasoning was that Scoscia was asking an aggressive team to change what's led to their success, and we got rewarded for it...Tonight, we will need that same approach from the Rays batters, but the huge difference is that this team's philosophy all season has been "Patience at the Plate"...which is the main reason Dice hasn't lasted 6 inn against them...
I also really like the fact that we get Shields at home, whose splits really show that in this dome is where you want to back him...And speaking of domes, the Red Sox have never played well in them, including this year where they come in "2-11"...and "6-16" on the carpet...
When I broke this series down, the only reason I didn't go ahead and make a play on the Rays to advance is their lack of experience and nothing else...because I believe even without a big name closer, they really have an edge over the Red Sox in starting pitching and in the pen...especially at home...and you would give the nod to Boston offensively...but not by the type of margin many believe and Lowell being out will be huge, you can mark my word because the replacement value backing him up isn't even close, and then when you toss in defense, it becomes even more apparent that this is a very winnable series for Tampa...
When looking at how the market is reacting both to sharp and public money, I really like the way the Rays have gradually gone up in price, rather than one big shot...meaning, even though the books could expect much more public money to come in late on the Sox tonight...they are doing what they can to stop more sharp money from coming in on Tampa...and willing to book the Sox at "plus money"...Mainly because as I was informed by many of the books in town...there is a liability if the Rays win this series, and since they believe that is very likely...it's become evident they will attempt to offset what they can by having Boston be bet during the series...to avoid getting hit from both ends...
Finally, the atmosphere in Tampa tonight should be electric...and I really like how this club has shown that although they may be young, they are having fun and playing extremely loose...and if my vote for Coach of the Year is able to keep that attitude in the club house througout...even when facing adversity...we just may see this team in the World Series...
But first, they have a Game 1 to play...so let's go ahead and back the Rays as our 3* BEST BET of the DAY...and see if we can improve on our 65% MLB Playoff record...VR
904 TAM (-120) Bodog vs 903 BOS
Analysis:
*** MLB ALCS 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***
(Shields vs Matsuzaka)
This should be an excellent series, and Tonight we have the all important Game 1 of the ALCS...and I just can't see any Value in going against the Home Team in this one...
For starters, the Rays have WON "71%" of their Home Games in 2008, and that tells us that we could have laid -240 on them at home and still turned a Profit...More importantly, Boston was average at best on the road, and in the "18" game played between these 2 clubs in the season...ONLY "3" have been won by the road team...and 2 of those wins came from the Rays at Fenway...
As we saw in the Phillies selection last night, many times edge in price alone is enough to make a wager...but Tonight we have much more going for us by backing the Rays...
Dice K has been incredible on the road this year, and to have success against him, you need patience...Well if you remember when he faced the Angels and we backed him and won...my reasoning was that Scoscia was asking an aggressive team to change what's led to their success, and we got rewarded for it...Tonight, we will need that same approach from the Rays batters, but the huge difference is that this team's philosophy all season has been "Patience at the Plate"...which is the main reason Dice hasn't lasted 6 inn against them...
I also really like the fact that we get Shields at home, whose splits really show that in this dome is where you want to back him...And speaking of domes, the Red Sox have never played well in them, including this year where they come in "2-11"...and "6-16" on the carpet...
When I broke this series down, the only reason I didn't go ahead and make a play on the Rays to advance is their lack of experience and nothing else...because I believe even without a big name closer, they really have an edge over the Red Sox in starting pitching and in the pen...especially at home...and you would give the nod to Boston offensively...but not by the type of margin many believe and Lowell being out will be huge, you can mark my word because the replacement value backing him up isn't even close, and then when you toss in defense, it becomes even more apparent that this is a very winnable series for Tampa...
When looking at how the market is reacting both to sharp and public money, I really like the way the Rays have gradually gone up in price, rather than one big shot...meaning, even though the books could expect much more public money to come in late on the Sox tonight...they are doing what they can to stop more sharp money from coming in on Tampa...and willing to book the Sox at "plus money"...Mainly because as I was informed by many of the books in town...there is a liability if the Rays win this series, and since they believe that is very likely...it's become evident they will attempt to offset what they can by having Boston be bet during the series...to avoid getting hit from both ends...
Finally, the atmosphere in Tampa tonight should be electric...and I really like how this club has shown that although they may be young, they are having fun and playing extremely loose...and if my vote for Coach of the Year is able to keep that attitude in the club house througout...even when facing adversity...we just may see this team in the World Series...
But first, they have a Game 1 to play...so let's go ahead and back the Rays as our 3* BEST BET of the DAY...and see if we can improve on our 65% MLB Playoff record...VR
