STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/31/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 1/31/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Friday
•Hot Teams
-- Grizzlies won nine of their last ten games. Minnesota won five of its last six games.
-- Thunder won their last nine games (8-1 vs. spread). Brooklyn is 10-2 in its last dozen games.
-- Raptors won four of their last five games.
-- Bobcats are 5-4 in their last nine games.
-- Jazz won three of their last four home games.
•Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost 15 of its last 17 games. Bucks lost 21 of their last 24 games (1-6 vs. spread last 7 on road).
-- Hawks are 5-7 in their last dozen games. 76ers lost six of last eight, covered one of last four.
-- Kings lost their last five games (1-3-1 vs. spread). Dallas lost three of its last four games.
-- Denver lost four of its last six games.
-- Lakers lost last five games (0-3 vs. spread in last three).
-- Golden State is 3-5 in its last eight games.
•Totals
-- Five of last seven Orlando games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games went over the total; eight of Philly's last ten games stayed under.
-- Last eight Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Brooklyn home games went over.
-- Over is 12-1 in last thirteen Sacramento-Dallas games.
-- Seven of last nine Denver games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Laker games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Utah games. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Golden State games.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Warriors are 3-5 versus spread if they played the night before.
•Series Records
-- Magic won nine of last eleven games with Milwaukee.
-- 76ers lost three of last four games with Atlanta.
-- Minnesota beat Grizzlies 101-93 Dec 15, ending 11-game series skid.
-- Nets won last two games with Thunder, after losing previous seven.
-- Mavericks won 16 of last 18 games with Sacramento.
-- Nuggets won nine of last eleven games with Toronto.
-- Lakers won their last five games against Charlotte.
-- Warriors are 2-0 versus Utah this season: 102-88/98-87.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- BROOKLYN is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) in home games after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BROOKLYN 98.1, OPPONENT 100.7.
-- ATLANTA is 17-3 OVER (+13.7 Units) after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 107.7, OPPONENT 102.2.
-- MILWAUKEE is 9-21 (-14.1 Units) against the 1rst half line revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 44.2, OPPONENT 51.8 - (Rating = 2*)
-- MEMPHIS is 45-15 UNDER (+28.5 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 46.4, OPPONENT 48.3.
-- SCOTT BROOKS is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) in road games after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.
The average score was BROOKS 101.2, OPPONENT 92.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- MILWAUKEE is 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 92.9, OPPONENT 105.0.
-- DALLAS is 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 104.1, OPPONENT 100.7.
-- PHILADELPHIA is 2-15 against the 1rst half line (-14.5 Units) in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 43.5, OPPONENT 49.4.
-- ORLANDO is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 50.7, OPPONENT 52.9.
-- MIKE D'ANTONI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season as the coach of LA LAKERS.
The average score was D'ANTONI 100.7, OPPONENT 101.6.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Underdogs versus the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games.
(32-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.4%, +27.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -140
The average score in these games was: Team 101.5, Opponent 92.3 (Average point differential = +9.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2, +7.2 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (90-32, +5 units).
-- Play On - Road favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games.
(41-11 since 1996.) (78.8%, +28.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (47-6)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.7
The average score in these games was: Team 102.1, Opponent 91 (Average point differential = +11.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22 (44% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(38-13 since 1996.) (74.5%, +23.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 194
The average score in these games was: Team 94, Opponent 93.8 (Total points scored = 187.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 33 (63.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
-- Play On - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (MINNESOTA) - poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) against a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%), after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(47-15 since 1996.) (75.8%, +30.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.6, Opponent 44.5 (Average first half point differential = +6.1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).
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Friday's Match-ups
#801 MILWAUKEE @ #802 ORLANDO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN Wisconsin (Milwaukee), FSN Florida (Orlando) - Line: Magic -5.5, Total: 192.5) - The Orlando Magic host the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday in a battle between teams with the NBA’s worst two records and only three victories combined in January. The Magic got a big boost with the return of 7-0 center Nikola Vucevic from a concussion Wednesday, but lost for the 15th time in 17 games — 98-83 at Toronto. Milwaukee has dropped 13 of 14 games this month — seven of the defeats on the road – and has lost 15 consecutive contests at Orlando.
Vucevic collected 16 points and 10 rebounds Wednesday after missing 12 consecutive games and the Magic are 2-16 without him in the lineup this season. Arron Afflalo was 11-of-15 from the field and 8-of-11 from 3-point range to score 36 points in the 94-91 victory over the Bucks on Nov. 13 in Orlando. The Magic must contain Brandon Knight, who posted 27 and 24 points in two of the last three games for the Bucks.
•ABOUT THE BUCKS (8-37 SU, 15-30-0 ATS): Knight averaged fewer than 10 points in October and November, but has been a focal point for the Bucks since and leads the team in scoring overall (16.1). Milwaukee may get second-leading scorer O.J. Mayo (12.2) back after he missed the last two games with an illness. John Henson, who has at least one block in 15 straight games, averages 12 points and Khris Middleton scored 13 per game — while shooting 52 percent from the field — over the last five contests to improve to 10.9 on the season.
•ABOUT THE MAGIC (12-35 SU, 19-28-0 ATS): Afflalo leads the team at 20 points per game and five other players average at least 12.9, but the biggest problems for the Magic are on the other end of the floor. “We were just too soft defensively,” Magic point guard Jamee Nelson told the Orlando Sentinel after the Toronto loss. “One of the things that we need to get better at is just the effort.” Vucevic, who leads the team in rebounding (11), should help and rookie Victor Oladipo continues to evolve — averaging two steals the last nine games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Orlando F Tobias Harris, acquired from the Bucks last season, is averaging 17.4 points and 12.2 rebounds over the last five games.... Milwaukee’s 117 points in the loss to Phoenix on Wednesday was a season high.... The Magic are 45-44 all time in the regular season against Milwaukee – 31-14 at home.... The Magic are 4-19 versus the spread when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last three seasons.... The Bucks are 10-26 against the spread versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE covered the spread 551 times, while ORLANDO covered the spread 449 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO won the game straight up 573 times, while MILWAUKEE won 401 times. In 1000 simulated games, 579 games went under the total, while 421 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 521 times, while ORLANDO covered the first half line 451 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 527 games went under first half total, while 441 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MILWAUKEE is 38-27 against the spread versus ORLANDO since 1996.
--ORLANDO is 33-33 straight up against MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--33 of 65 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 35-29 versus the first half line when playing against ORLANDO since 1996.
--43 of 64 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bucks are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Bucks are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Orlando.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Orlando.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more.
--Bucks are 0-7 ATS L7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
--Magic are 5-1 ATS L6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
--Over is 5-1 in Magic last 6 home games.
--Over is 7-1 in Magic L8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#803 ATLANTA @ #804 PHILADELPHIA
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, SportSouth (Atlanta), CSN Philadelphia (Philadelphia) Line: Hawks -4, Total: 211) - The Atlanta Hawks will have the benefit of some unexpected extra rest prior to their visit to the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday. Due to the travel issues caused by the winter storm that slammed the Atlanta area earlier in the week, the Hawks' scheduled game with Detroit was cancelled, giving the club a full three days off since its loss at Oklahoma City on Monday. That should help in the recovery for point guard Jeff Teague, who has missed the last two games with an ankle injury but was at practice Thursday afternoon.
While Atlanta was forced to stay home Wednesday night, the 76ers went on the road to steal a 95-94 win at Boston, courtesy of a buzzer beater by Evan Turner. All five Philadelphia starters scored in double figures, led by Spencer Hawes, who had 20 points and eight rebounds. Teague scored 33 points — one shy of a career high — and dished out 10 assists in a 113-103 win over the Sixers in the first meeting between the teams Nov. 15 in Atlanta.
•ABOUT THE HAWKS (23-21 SU, 24-20-0 ATS): The silver lining in Teague's absence has been the increased impact of Shelvin Mack, who is finally getting significant minutes after bouncing around on three teams in his first two seasons. Mack, who became a steady contributor off the Atlanta bench in December, has averaged 12 points and 5.5 assists in starting both games without Teague. The Butler University product has committed just three turnovers in 55 minutes in that span, fortifying one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios (3.29) in the NBA.
•ABOUT THE 76ERS (15-31 SU, 19-27-0 ATS): Turner's big basket gives Philadelphia some momentum but recent history suggests the club might have issues carrying it over onto the home court. The Sixers have lost four straight home games and seven of their last eight at Wells Fargo Center, while compiling a 6-3 mark on the road since Dec. 29. They have been outscored by an average of 11.3 points during the four-game home losing streak and own just one win in regulation at home since early November.
•PREGAME NOTES: Turner is averaging 1.9 turnovers this month after giving the ball up 3.3 times in December and 3.6 in November.... Hawks F Paul Millsap has recorded at least one steal in a career-high 16 straight games.... Atlanta is seeking its first three-game winning streak in the series since the 2002-03 season.... The Sixers are 3-15 against the spread in home games versus teams who make six or more 3-point shots/game on the season this season.... The Hawks are 17-4 Over in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the spread 626 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the spread 352 times. *EDGE against the spread =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA won the game straight up 719 times, while PHILADELPHIA won 264 times. In 1000 simulated games, 633 games went under the total, while 341 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the first half line 579 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the first half line 391 times. *EDGE against first half line =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, 597 games went under first half total, while 403 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHILADELPHIA is 32-29 against the spread versus ATLANTA since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 34-28 straight up against ATLANTA since 1996.
--35 of 61 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 31-28 versus the first half line when playing against ATLANTA since 1996.
--35 of 57 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.
--Underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Hawks are 1-5 ATS L6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Over is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 overall.
--Over is 8-1 in Hawks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
--76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Over is 5-1-1 in 76ers L7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#805 MEMPHIS @ #806 MINNESOTA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, SportSouth (Memphis), FSN North (Minnesota) - Line: Timberwolves -2, Total: 193.5) - The Minnesota Timberwolves finally cleared the break-even mark — now they have to try to stay there. The Timberwolves have won five of six to move above .500 for the first time since falling to 8-8 on Nov. 25. To stay there, they'll have to knock off the red-hot Memphis Grizzlies, who have won four straight and nine of 10 overall and have claimed 11 of 12 against the Timberwolves — including five straight at Minnesota.
The return of center Marc Gasol after a 23-game absence with a sprained knee ligament has refueled the Grizzlies, who are 7-1 with the big man back in the lineup. "You can see our confidence coming back," Memphis forward Tayshaun Prince told reporters. "He helps us so much on defense. He has a real presence back there. When he was out, we couldn't get stops regularly like we are now." Now it's the Timberwolves who are playing without their starting center as Nikola Pekovic will miss at least a week with bursitis in his ankle, but Minnesota won its first game without him, beating New Orleans 88-77 on Wednesday.
•ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (24-20 SU, 21-22-1 ATS): Memphis went the first two-plus months without winning five straight games, but now it has a shot at its second five-game streak in a three-week span. The catalyst has been point guard Mike Conley, an All-Star snub who is averaging a career-high 18.2 points and 6.2 assists. Courtney Lee has been a nice addition at the offensive end since being acquired from Boston, as the sixth-year guard has averaged 14 points in 11 games — nine wins — with the Grizzlies.
•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (23-22 SU, 25-20-0 ATS): Losing Pekovic (18 points, 9.1 rebounds) is a big blow, but the other half of the "Bruise Brothers" — All-Star power forward Kevin Love (25 points, 12.9 rebounds) — gives Minnesota a dominant post presence. The primary reason the Timberwolves are on the wrong side of the playoff bubble is their shoddy play at the defensive end, but they've improved in that area recently, holding five of their last seven opponents under 100 points. When Minnesota is at its best on defense it forces plenty of turnovers with the league's top steal duo of Ricky Rubio and Corey Brewer leading the way.
•PREGAME NOTES: Memphis G Tony Allen (wrist) and F Mike Miller (thumb) are day-to-day. Allen, who averages 10.2 points and two steals, has not played since Jan. 3.... After losing its first 10 games this season when scoring fewer than 100 points, Minnesota has won the last three contests in which it failed to hit triple digits.... Grizzlies PF Zach Randolph (17.1 points, 10.6 rebounds) has 27 double-doubles this season, including 24 in the past 35 games.... The Grizzlies are 8-0 against the spread versus teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Timberwolves are 11-2 Over after allowing 85 points or less over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 548 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 427 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 599 times, while MEMPHIS won 390 times. In 1000 simulated games, 683 games went over the total, while 317 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the first half line 556 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 419 times. *EDGE against first half line =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, 622 games went over first half total, while 378 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MINNESOTA is 32-32 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1996.
--MINNESOTA is 39-27 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--33 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MEMPHIS is 32-31 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--35 of 62 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Grizzlies are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
--Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 8-0 in Grizzlies last 8 overall.
--Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 8-1 in Timberwolves last 9 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
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#807 OKLAHOMA CITY @ #808 BROOKLYN
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN, FS Oklahoma (Oklahoma City), YES (Brooklyn) - Line: Thunders -3, Total: 199) - It wasn't long ago that the Brooklyn Nets were considered the hottest team in the NBA; now, they have to contend with the new mantle-holder as they prepare to host the powerhouse Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night. Brooklyn opened January with 10 wins in their first 11 games, but hit a roadblock last time out as they dropped a stunning 104-103 decision to Toronto. The Thunder have won nine in a row, with Kevin Durant starring in each one.
The Nets will try to become the first team to hold Durant under 30 points in 3 1/2 weeks. The NBA scoring leader reeled off 33 points in a 112-95 drubbing of the Miami Heat, becoming the first NBA player with at least 30 points in 12 straight games since Tracy McGrady more than 10 years earlier. Durant is averaging 38 points over the course of the streak, and has fallen short of the 30-point mark just twice in his previous 18 games overall.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (37-10 SU, 28-19-0 ATS): Durant has been typically humble despite finding himself in the hottest stretch of his career — first downplaying his marquee matchup with Miami's LeBron James, then going toe-to-toe with the multi-time MVP, who finished with 34 points in the loss. "I've scored points before in this league; it's not like this is totally new to me," he told reporters following the win. "But this long of a stretch, I guess, is different for me. I'm just trying to do whatever my team needs, night in and night out, to figure out what we need to win a basketball game."
•ABOUT THE NETS (20-23 SU, 21-22-0 ATS): Brooklyn was well on its way to a critical win over Toronto — a victory that would have moved the Nets to within a half-game of the Atlantic Division-leading Raptors. But Toronto's Patrick Patterson intercepted Brooklyn's inbounds pass, hit the go-ahead basket and watched as Paul Pierce's 3-point jumper was off the mark. It was the most heartbreaking loss of what has already been a difficult season for the injury plagued Nets — and as point guard Deron Williams said afterward: "And we (had) three days to sit and think about it. And that makes it even worse."
•PREGAME NOTES: Nets G Joe Johnson was named as a reserve to the Eastern Conference All-Star Team on Thursday. Johnson, who averages 15.7 points, will make his seventh All-Star appearance.... Brooklyn opened the month with a 95-93 victory over the Thunder in Oklahoma City.... Durant averages 24.8 points in 11 career games versus the Nets.... The Thunder are 8-1 against the spread in road games versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts this season.... The Nets are 15-32 versus the spread in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the spread 502 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 549 times, while BROOKLYN won 432 times. In 1000 simulated games, 489 games went under the total, while 487 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the first half line 528 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 504 games went under first half total, while 496 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-16 against the spread versus BROOKLYN since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-13 straight up against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--16 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-15 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996
--Thunder are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Brooklyn.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings
--Favorite is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
--Over is 10-1 in Nets last 11 Friday games.
--Under is 5-0-1 in Nets last 6 after allowing 100 points or more.
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#809 SACRAMENTO @ #810 DALLAS
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, CSN California (Sacramento), FSN Southwest (Dallas) - Line: Unavailable) - The Dallas Mavericks are in danger of losing their spot in the top eight of the Western Conference after dropping five of their last eight games. The Mavericks hope to turn things around by picking on a lesser opponent when they host the Sacramento Kings on Friday. The Kings own the worst record in the West and have dropped five straight while waiting for center DeMarcus Cousins to return from an ankle injury.
Cousins has watched Sacramento’s porous defense become even worse with him on the sidelines, surrendering an average of 113 points over the last five games. Dallas is not doing much better at that end and was burned for 117 points Wednesday by a Houston team missing James Harden. “The defense was horrible all night,” Dirk Nowitzki told reporters. “I mean, every time down somebody was in the paint, laying the ball up or in transition, drives or pick-and-roll plays. I mean, if you give up 117 at the house, you’re going to lose.”
•ABOUT THE KINGS (15-30 SU, 19-24-2 ATS): Cousins was a limited participant in practice Thursday and is questionable for Friday. Sacramento got Rudy Gay (Achilles) back from a three-game absence Wednesday but it was not enough in a 99-89 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, during which the Kings surrendered 54.7 percent shooting. “I’ve been a hypocrite all year,” Sacramento coach Michael Malone told The Sacramento Bee. “I preach defense, that’s what I believe in, and we’re one of the worst defensive teams in the league. So for me, if you don’t play defense... I can’t play you.” The Kings are 28th in the league in points allowed, surrendering an average of 104.7.
•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (26-21 SU, 26-21-0 ATS): Dallas’ last five losses can all be attributed to breakdowns on the defensive end, with an average of 114.6 points allowed in those contests. Nowitzki contributed 38 points and a season-high 17 rebounds in Wednesday’s 117-115 loss but could only talk about the team’s breakdowns after the game. “You’ve got to have some pride and try to guard your man better,” he said. “And we’ve got to help. We know we don’t have the individual greatest defenders in this league, so five guys have got to scramble and work together.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Mavericks F Shawn Marion (shoulder) missed practice Thursday and is day-to-day.... Nowitzki was named as a Western Conference All-Star reserve on Thursday while Cousins, who is averaging 22.6 points and 11.6 rebounds, was left off the roster.... Sacramento snapped a five-game losing streak in the series with a 112-97 home win Dec. 9 behind 32 points and 19 rebounds from Cousins
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--Note: There are currently *No EDGES available for this matchup due to No-Line posted at the present time. In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS won the game straight up 677 times, while SACRAMENTO won 310 times.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DALLAS is 44-36 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--DALLAS is 47-35 straight up against SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--53 of 81 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DALLAS is 44-38 versus the first half line when playing against SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--49 of 79 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Kings are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Kings are 7-18-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Dallas.
--Over is 39-16-2 in the last 57 meetings.
--Over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in Dallas.
--Home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
--Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
--Over is 2-0-2 in Kings last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
--Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 6-1 in Mavericks last 7 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 7-1 in Mavericks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
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#811 TORONTO @ #812 DENVER
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Sportsnet One (Toronto), Altitude (Denver) - Line: Unavailable) - The Denver Nuggets attempt to stretch their homecourt victory streak against Toronto to 10 when they host the Raptors on Friday. Denver will be shorthanded at point guard as starter Ty Lawson (shoulder) is questionable and backup Nate Robinson (knee) will miss the contest. Toronto is a season-best three games above. 500 and leads the Atlantic Division by three games over the Brooklyn Nets as it begins a five-game road trip against Western Conference foes.
Raptors shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (ankle) hopes to return from a two-game absence and received equally good news Thursday when he was named to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. It is the first All-Star appearance for the fifth-year pro, who is averaging a team-best 21.8 points. The Nuggets posted a 112-98 win at Toronto earlier this season but are struggling as they enter the rematch with four losses in their past six games.
•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (24-21 SU, 27-18-0 ATS): Point guard Kyle Lowry was passed over for the Eastern Conference All-Star team but has carried the team in the two games DeRozan has missed. Lowry has recorded back-to-back 30-point outings, including a season-best 33 in Wednesday’s victory over Orlando, and is aiming to be the first Toronto player with three straight 30-point efforts since Mike James in April, 2006. Lowry also is averaging 10.8 assists over his past four games and his season averages of 16.8 points and 7.6 assists are the best of his eight-year career. “Kyle is an unbelievable player,” backup point guard Greivis Vasquez said after the Orlando contest. “He’s doing great things.”
•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (22-22 SU, 21-23-0 ATS): Veteran Randy Foye was forced into the point guard role in Wednesday’s loss to Charlotte after Robinson got hurt and scored a season-best 33 points to go with seven assists. Foye will likely start against the Raptors and the backup is expected to be Evan Fournier even though coach Brian Shaw said activating disgruntled veteran Andre Miller also is a possibility. “I’ve always said that I can coach any player that is willing to play and do what’s best for the team overall,” Shaw said. “If he’s willing to do what’s best for the team overall, I’m willing to coach him.” Miller last saw action Dec. 30 and has been away from the team since having a well-publicized spat with Shaw.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Raptors’ last win in Denver was an 81-74 victory on Dec. 30, 2003.... Nuggets C Timofey Mozgov is averaging 14.7 points on 15-of-23 shooting over the past three games.... Toronto C Jonas Valanciunas has recorded three straight double-doubles and is averaging 17 points and 13.3 rebounds during the stretch.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--Note: There are currently *No EDGES available for this matchup due to No-Line posted at the present time. In 1000 simulated games, DENVER won the game straight up 504 times, while TORONTO won 464 times.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DENVER is 22-11 against the spread versus TORONTO since 1996.
--DENVER is 21-12 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--17 of 33 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DENVER is 21-12 versus the first half line when playing against TORONTO since 1996.
--17 of 33 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Raptors are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
--Raptors are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Denver.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Denver.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
--Raptors are 5-0 ATS L5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 Friday games.
--Nuggets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 Friday games.
--Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
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#813 GOLDEN STATE @ #814 UTAH
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, ESPN, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), ROOT Sports (Utah) - Line: Warriors -5, Total: 202) - The Utah Jazz are coming off back-to-back wins and may be catching the visiting Golden State Warriors at just the right time. The Jazz will attempt a season-high third straight victory on Friday against the Warriors, who will be playing the second night of a back-to-back after a battle with the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday. Utah was swept by Golden State in a home-and-home series in November but is moving its way up over the last month.
The Jazz have leaped over the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers to get out of the basement in the Western Conference but are still searching for consistency from the likes of Derrick Favors, Trey Burke and Enes Kanter. Favors is still figuring things out on the offensive end from game to game but is making his presence felt on the glass and will contend with the Warriors duo of David Lee and Andrew Bogut on the inside. The two combined for 36 points and 28 rebounds on Thursday as Golden State dominated the interior.
•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (28-19 SU, 21-24-2 ATS): Golden State outscored the Clippers in the paint 66-22 and outrebounded them 53-34 in an easy 111-92 victory. The Warriors have allowed an average of 89.3 points in the last three games to take two of three after surrendering 112 points in the previous five contests - dropping four of those five. Coach Mark Jackson chided his team for playing down to the competition after an 88-85 home loss to the Washington Wizards on Tuesday and the Warriors looked like a different group on Thursday with a focus on getting the ball inside to Lee, Bogut and Marreese Speights. That took some of the pressure off Stephen Curry, who scored 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting to go over 20 for the eighth straight game.
•ABOUT THE JAZZ (16-29 SU, 20-22-3 ATS): Utah is 12-10 over its last 22 games after beginning the season 4-19. The Jazz had plenty of time off to fix an offense that struggled in back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Jan. 18 and 21 and responded by putting up an average of 105 points in wins over the Wizards and Kings at home. Kanter totaled eight points in the two losses to Minnesota but put up 40 in the last two games on 17-of-21 shooting. The reserve center totaled 18 points and 11 rebounds in the two November meetings with the Warriors.
•PREGAME NOTES: Golden State has won in two of its last three trips to Utah, including the 98-87 triumph on Nov. 18.... Jazz G Trey Burke and F Richard Jefferson both missed practice on Thursday due to illness and are game-time decisions Friday.... Curry is 17-for-29 from 3-point range over the last four games.... The Warriors are 17-5 Over in road games in January games over the last three seasons.... The Jazz are 6-17 versus the spread after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 588 times, while GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 391 times. *EDGE against the spread =UTAH. In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE won the game straight up 549 times, while UTAH won 431 times. In 1000 simulated games, 538 games went over the total, while 439 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the first half line 561 times, while GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 490 games went over first half total, while 476 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH is 35-30 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--UTAH is 51-20 straight up against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--34 of 66 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--UTAH is 34-33 versus the first half line when playing against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--35 of 66 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Warriors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Utah.
--Under is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings.
--Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings in Utah.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
--Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Over is 5-0-1 in Jazz last 6 home games.
--Over is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
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#815 CHARLOTTE @ #816 LA LAKERS
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, SportSouth (Charlotte), TWC SportsNet (Los Angeles) - Line: Unavailable) - The Los Angeles Lakers continue to drop further out of the playoff race and have lost 17 of 20 games entering Friday’s home matchup with the Charlotte Bobcats. Los Angeles has lost its last five contests and the struggles have been so bad that it has emerged victorious in just two of its last 11 home games. Charlotte opened a four-game road trip with a 101-98 win over Denver on Wednesday as center Al Jefferson matched his season best of 35 points.
Los Angeles has badly missed guard Kobe Bryant and has slipped below the Utah Jazz for the second-worst record in the Western Conference. Only the Sacramento Kings have a worse record in the West than the Lakers, who have suffered through a string of injuries that decimated the point guard position. Charlotte might be seven games below .500 but it has remained in the mix for an Eastern Conference playoff spot and could get starting guard Kemba Walker back for the contest. Walker has missed five games with an ankle injury.
•ABOUT THE BOBCATS (20-27 SU, 25-20-2 ATS): Jefferson has been fantastic over the past 10 games, scoring at least 20 points in each and averaging 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds during the stretch. The veteran center was hindered by ankle injuries in the early portion of the season but has regained his form and recorded double-doubles in 14 of Charlotte’s last 22 games. “It’s all about staying healthy,” Jefferson said after the win over Denver. “I am 85 or 90 percent right now. If I were 100 percent, I could be very effective. I am working hard to get to 100 percent.” Jefferson’s season averages are 19.3 points and 10.5 rebounds.
•ABOUT THE LAKERS (16-30 SU, 24-21-1 ATS): Kendall Marshall is averaging 11.5 assists in 14 January games but could soon be out of the starting point guard role. Veterans Steve Nash (back), Steve Blake (elbow) and Jordan Farmar (hamstring) all returned to practice on Thursday and the 39-year-old Nash said after the session that he expects to return early next week. “This has been the hardest thing I’ve ever faced in my career,” Nash told reporters. “Ever since I broke my leg (last season), nothing’s been the same. Nothing’s been easy. But I also look for challenges in life so this is a great opportunity for me to learn about myself and try to fight through it and hopefully on the other side, I’ll be a better person.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Lakers have won the last five meetings, including an 88-85 road victory on Dec. 14.... Los Angeles has allowed more than 100 points in 13 consecutive games.... Charlotte is 9-14 on the road after winning just six away games all last season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--Note: There are currently *No EDGES available for this matchup due to No-Line posted at the present time. In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE won the game straight up 524 times, while LA LAKERS won 447 times.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CHARLOTTE is 13-5 against the spread versus LA LAKERS since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 10-8 straight up against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CHARLOTTE is 13-5 versus the first half line when playing against LA LAKERS since 1996.
--13 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bobcats are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
--Bobcats are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 Friday games.
--Over is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 8-1 in Lakers last 9 overall.
--Over is 8-1 in Lakers last 9 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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