Sports Insights = 5-3
Utah vs Alabama (1/2 8:15P)
Utah comes into the Sugar Bowl with the nation’s longest active winning streak at 13 games. They have that designation thanks to Alabama’s loss in the SEC Championship Game, which ended the Crimson Tide’s own 13-game winning streak. The Utes are the first non-BCS conference school to reach two BCS bowls, having won the 2005 Fiesta Bowl against Pittsburgh. That win is part of a seven-game bowl winning streak for Utah. Quarterback Brian Johnson spread the ball around to his receivers while throwing for 24 touchdowns on the season; five receivers caught at least 23 passes and 3 touchdowns. The Utes defense is allowing only 104.8 yards rushing per game.
Alabama came within one quarter of playing in the BCS Championship Game, but they were handed their first loss after giving up two fourth-quarter touchdowns to Florida in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide are lead by a strong rushing attack, which averages 196.5 yards per game, and an efficient passing attack. That combination lives on ball control, but they also average 31 points per game. Alabama can play against any type of offense, as it has utilized a 3-4 base defense, but also used nickel, dime, and zone blitz packages much of the year. The Tide defense allowed an average of 78.8 rushing yards per game, while giving up a total of 19 touchdowns in 13 games.
It's no surprise that Alabama opened as double-digit favorites against the Mountain West Champions, and it's not surprising they are receiving the majority of bets from the public. The Crimson Tide are receiving 77% of the public spread bets. Despite this overwhelming majority of support, the line has moved from an opening at Pinnacle of Alabama -11 to -9. The line has seem quite a bit of fluctuation between those numbers, and the game has received over 15 Betting System triggers from Sports Insights. All except one are on Utah, including Smart Money plays at Bodog (17-8, +7.40 units) and BetOnline (37-23, +10.22) and a Steam Move at Bet Jamaica (125-100, +13.3). We're not sure if the Utes can finish off another undefeated season against 'Bama, but we think they can stay within single digits. We're taking Utah with the points.
Utah +10 (BetPhoenix)
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Utah vs Alabama (1/2 8:15P)
Utah comes into the Sugar Bowl with the nation’s longest active winning streak at 13 games. They have that designation thanks to Alabama’s loss in the SEC Championship Game, which ended the Crimson Tide’s own 13-game winning streak. The Utes are the first non-BCS conference school to reach two BCS bowls, having won the 2005 Fiesta Bowl against Pittsburgh. That win is part of a seven-game bowl winning streak for Utah. Quarterback Brian Johnson spread the ball around to his receivers while throwing for 24 touchdowns on the season; five receivers caught at least 23 passes and 3 touchdowns. The Utes defense is allowing only 104.8 yards rushing per game.
Alabama came within one quarter of playing in the BCS Championship Game, but they were handed their first loss after giving up two fourth-quarter touchdowns to Florida in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide are lead by a strong rushing attack, which averages 196.5 yards per game, and an efficient passing attack. That combination lives on ball control, but they also average 31 points per game. Alabama can play against any type of offense, as it has utilized a 3-4 base defense, but also used nickel, dime, and zone blitz packages much of the year. The Tide defense allowed an average of 78.8 rushing yards per game, while giving up a total of 19 touchdowns in 13 games.
It's no surprise that Alabama opened as double-digit favorites against the Mountain West Champions, and it's not surprising they are receiving the majority of bets from the public. The Crimson Tide are receiving 77% of the public spread bets. Despite this overwhelming majority of support, the line has moved from an opening at Pinnacle of Alabama -11 to -9. The line has seem quite a bit of fluctuation between those numbers, and the game has received over 15 Betting System triggers from Sports Insights. All except one are on Utah, including Smart Money plays at Bodog (17-8, +7.40 units) and BetOnline (37-23, +10.22) and a Steam Move at Bet Jamaica (125-100, +13.3). We're not sure if the Utes can finish off another undefeated season against 'Bama, but we think they can stay within single digits. We're taking Utah with the points.
Utah +10 (BetPhoenix)
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Larry Ness' Bowl GOY
Ole Miss made a terrible decision in getting rid of David Cutcliffe after the Rebels went 4-7 in 2003. After all, the Rebels had gone to just FIVE bowls from 1972 through 1996 but from 1999 through 2003, he took the Rebels to four bowl games, including a 31-28 Cotton Bowl win over Okla St in Eli Manning's senior season, the year before Cutcliffe was fired. Ed Orgeron was brought in and he "talked a good game" but delivered a pathetic 10 wins in just three seasons. Fortunately for Ole Miss fans, the school's next coaching move was a gem, getting Houston Nutt. The Rebels responded in a big way to Nutt, beating Florida (the 2006 national champs) 31-30 in Gainesville on Sep 27 and LSU (the defending national champs) 31-13 in Baton Rogue on Nov 22. The Rebels had won just 14 games over the previous four years and after going 0-8 in the SEC last year (3-9 overall), finished 5-3 in league play and 8-4 overall, ending the regular season on a five-game winning streak to nab this bowl invite. Nutt's team was competitive in its four losses too, with each coming by a TD or less and by a total of just 19 points. Jevan Snead (who transferred from Texas to get away from Colt McCoy), became eligible TY and was pretty good (55.7% / 2,470 yards / 23 TDs and 12 INTs). The running game averages 167.5 YPG (4.6 YPC), although no back had more than 644 yards. Dexter McCluster was a WR last year but was used in the team's "Wild Rebel" formation this year, rushing for 558 yards (5.9 per) while catching 38 passes. WRs Hodge (42 catches 16.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and Wallace (35 catches / 20.1 YPC / 6 TDs) both own excellent YPC averages. The Ole Miss defense allows 17.8 PPG and 293.8 YPG and both of those averages rank 14th in the nation. However, the Rebels haven't faced an offense like Texas Tech's. Let me note that Tim Tebow had his only 300-yard game of the years vs Ole Miss (24-of-38 for 319 yards) and the following week, Chris Smelley of South Carolina, a QB who threw just 13 TDs and 15 INTs on the year and has since lost his starting job, had 327 yards passing with three TDs vs the Rebels. I shudder to think what a motivated Graham Harrell might do. The key here is, I believe Harrell, the entire Tech team and coach Mike Leach will ALL be highly motivated for this game. Yes, Tech is disappointed that its 11-1 season (tying the single-season school record for wins previously set in 1953 and 1973) couldn't get them a BCS bowl bid but note that a loss here, would completely ruin Tech's year. Harrell completed 71.5 percent of this throws for 4,747 yards. He has 32 career 300-yard games with 20 of those games being of the 400-yard variety. He enters this game with 15,429 career passing yards, the second-most yards all-time (Timmy Chang of Hawaii is the all-time leader with 17,072 yards) and his 130 TD passes is second to only Colt Brennan (131) on the all-time list. Harrell was NOT even invited to New York as a Heisman finalist. He HAS something to prove and take note of what he's done in his previous two bowl games. He threw for 445 yards with two TDs plus ran for another, as the Red Raiders pulled off the biggest comeback in bowl history in 2006, rallying from 31 points down to beat Minnesota, 44-41 (OT) in the Insight Bowl. He then threw for 407 yards and three scores in LY's Gator Bowl, helping Texas Tech overcome a 17-point deficit in the final four minutes of a 31-28 win over Virginia. In the second halves of Harrell's two bowl games, the Red Raiders have outscored their opponents, 71-13! WR Michael Crabtree had 93 receptions for 1,135 yards and 18 TDs this season, becoming the first repeat winner of the Biletnikoff Award (nation's country's top receiver), after he was the first freshman to win the honor in 2007. Leach is known for his passing attack but the team's 118.9 YPG on the ground (4.7 YPC / 28 TDs), is the highest in the Leach era. Tech's OL averages 6' 6" and more than 320 pounds and has allowed just 12 sacks (Harrell attempted 568 passes!). While Tech doesn't run often, Batch (742 yards / 6.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and Woods (670 yards / 5.0 YPC / 12 TDs) have been amazingly efficient. One also can't overlook the Tech defense, which also produced a Leach era-best, allowing 133.5 YPG on the ground (3.9 YPC). I am a big fan of Houston Nutt, but this is a tough matchup for him. The 'public' and 'wise guys' are "all over" Ole Miss in this game but I see no way the Rebels can trade scores with Texas Tech. Entering its Nov 22 game at Norman, Texas Tech had scored at least 30 points in 14 straight games but as we all know, the Red Raiders were never in that game, losing 65-21. Tech entered that game No. 2 in the nation but that one loss crippled the team's chances for a shot at the national championship game and made them a long shot to even appear in the Big 12 title game (they didn't). Tech's "let down" game came the next Saturday in a home game with Baylor and the "after effects" of the Oklahoma loss were in evidence. Tech was sloppy and when the Bears scored on their opening drive of the third quarter, Tech was down 28-14. However, showing what he was made of (playing with a injury to his throwing hand and without Crabtree), Harrell led the Red Raiders to three second-half TDs and a 35-28 win. Tech enters the game averaging 536.2 YPG and 44.6 PPG (both figures rank 4th in the nation). After scoring 35 points vs Baylor, Tech has now scored 30 or more in 27 of its last 30 games and while the Ole Miss 'D' has been very good this year, remember that Tebow and even Chris Smelley, 'lit them up.' Tech's a much better program than most people realize. The Red Raiders have now posted 16 consecutive non-losing seasons and are the ONLY school in the Big 12 to have posted consecutive winning seasons, despite playing in the much tougher South Division (with Okla, Okla. St, Texas and Tex A&M). As for Mike Leach, he's now led Tech to a bowl game in all NINE of his seasons at Lubbock and the man who had "any number of chances" to capitalize on Tech's tremendous 2008 season, decided to stay put with the Red Raiders. This will be Tech's 32nd all-time bowl but the Red Raiders are just 10-20-1. However, after losing in his first two bowl appearances with the Red Raiders, Leach has won FIVE of the last six. Tech has never played in a BCS bowl and in three previous Cotton Bowls (the school's biggest bowl stage to-date), the Red Raiders have gone 0-3, losing in games following the 1938 and 1994 seasons, plus following the 2005 season under Leach, when Alabama kicked a game-winning 45-yard FG with 0:00. That was then and this is now. Harrell took over at QB the last two seasons and I've already given you his bowl resume. This time around, no second-half dramatics will be necessary, as the Red Raiders win "in style!"
Bowl Game of the Year Texas Tech
Larry's Las Vegas Insider- NCAA Football
Alabama has a great bowl history, as this Sugar Bowl appearance marks its NCAA-leading 56th bowl game (31 wins, including an 8-4 mark in 12 previous Sugar Bowls). In fact, the Sugar Bowl has been very good to Alabama, last appearing after the 1992 season, when its 34-13 win over then-No. 1 Miami-Florida capped a 13-0 season and gave head coach Gene Stallings his only national title. Legendary coach Bear Bryant won national titles at Alabama after Sugar Bowl victories following the 1962, '78 and '79 seasons. While Utah can't match Alabama's longtime bowl success, the Utes became the first non-BCS school to crash the BCS bowl 'party' back in 2004, when Urban Meyer's team (led by QB Alex Smith) capped a 12-0 season with a 35-7 win over Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl. This year's Sugar Bowl will be Utah's sixth straight bowl appearance and with Boston College losing on Dec 31 to Vandy in the Music City Bowl, the Utes' seven-game bowl winning streak is the longest active one in all of college football. Utah (12-0) is the only remaining unbeaten team in CFB in 2008, now that Boise State lost to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl and with 13 consecutive wins (going back to LY's 35-32 bowl win over Navy), the Utes also stand alone with the longest active winning streak in CFB (Alabama had won 13 straight as well, before losing 31-20 to Florida in the SEC championship game). Just how good are the Utes? They are clearly better than LY's Hawaii team which was dominated by Georgia 41-10 in LY's Sugar Bowl but I don't think they are anywhere near as good as their previous BCS bowl team in 2004 or the Boise St team which finished 13-0 in the 2006 season, with that dramatic and memorable 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Brian Johnson (68.3 percent / 2,636 yards / 24 TDs and 9 INTs) is a quality QB and a "winner" but his receivers corps is rather mediocre. Utah owns nice balance on offense with 236.8 YPG passing and 168.4 YPG (4.3 YPC and 23 TDs) on the ground. Again however, the team's main two running backs are rather ordinary, with Asiata (666 YR / 5.0 YPC / 11 TDs) and Mack (533 YR / 4.5 YPC / 3 TDs) hardly distinguishing themselves. Utah went 4-0 in games decided by three points or less this year, plus won at Air Force 30-23, by scoring the game-winning TD with just 58 seconds left. Utah caught Oregon St in the very first game after its stunning upset of USC (a great spot for the Utes), yet trailed 28-20 late, before scoring a TD (plus a two-point conversion) with 1:29 left, then winning the game on a 37-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. In a Thursday night game at home vcs TCU (the team I feel is the best non-BCS conference team), the Utes did little or nothing all game and only missed opportunities by TCU (two INTs and two missed FGs were 'killers'), kept Utah alive. Johnson was brilliant in a last-minute 80-yard TD drive (completed 7-of-9 passes for all 80 yards), that gave Utah a 13-10 win. However, let's note that the Alabama defense the Utes face is very similar to TCU's, which held the Utes in check all game (had gained less than 200 yards before that final drive) and held Utah's running game to 45 yards on 25 attempts (1.8 YPC). No one stopped the run better than TCU this year, but Alabama's 'D' was no slouch, allowing 78.8 YPG (2.8 YPC) and only four rushing TDs. It ranks third in total D (256.9 YPG ) and sixth in scoring (13.0 PPG). Utah does not have the speed and play-making ability on offense to score much vs Alabama, which held NINE of its 13 opponents to 14 points or less. The Alabama offense is hardly prolific but it made one or zero turnovers in 11 of its 13 games. JP Wilson is a mediocre QB (57.8 percent / 1,655 yards / 6 TDs and 5 INTs) but he doesn't make mistakes. The running game is very good, averaging 196.5 YPG (4.8 YPC) with 32 TDs. Coffee has 1,347 yards (6.1 YPC and 10 TDs) and with 125 yards in the Sugar Bowl, can break Bobby Humphrey's single-season school rushing mark. Ingram is more than just a by-stander in the backfield, adding 702 yards (5.2 YPC) and 12 TDs. Other than Jones (51 catches / 16.6 YPC / 4 TDs), there are no pass-catchers of note but Alabama is the perfect example of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. Saban's had his team properly prepared for every big test this year. Alabama met then-No. 9 Clemson in its season-opener in the Georgia Dome and led 23-3 at the half in a 34-10 win. At then-No.3 Georgia on Sep 27, the Tide rolled to a 31-0 halftime lead "between the hedges," in a 41-30 win and the Tide earned a hard-fought 27-21 OT win in Baton Rogue over LY's defending national champs, after LSU jumped to a 14-7 ead after the first quarter. In the SEC title game against Florida, the Gators scored on the their first possession to lead 7-0 but Alabama outscored the Gators 20-10, taking a 20-17 lead into the fourth quarter, before Tim Tebow played arguably his best quarter of football in his career. Now, Saban has a chance to validate the season by bouncing back from that loss with a convincing win over a very beatable foe. Anything less, will leave Alabama fans wondering just how good this team is. I for one, think it's pretty good and that this Utah team would have been lucky to finish .500 playing in the SEC.
Las Vegas Insider on Alabama
Ole Miss made a terrible decision in getting rid of David Cutcliffe after the Rebels went 4-7 in 2003. After all, the Rebels had gone to just FIVE bowls from 1972 through 1996 but from 1999 through 2003, he took the Rebels to four bowl games, including a 31-28 Cotton Bowl win over Okla St in Eli Manning's senior season, the year before Cutcliffe was fired. Ed Orgeron was brought in and he "talked a good game" but delivered a pathetic 10 wins in just three seasons. Fortunately for Ole Miss fans, the school's next coaching move was a gem, getting Houston Nutt. The Rebels responded in a big way to Nutt, beating Florida (the 2006 national champs) 31-30 in Gainesville on Sep 27 and LSU (the defending national champs) 31-13 in Baton Rogue on Nov 22. The Rebels had won just 14 games over the previous four years and after going 0-8 in the SEC last year (3-9 overall), finished 5-3 in league play and 8-4 overall, ending the regular season on a five-game winning streak to nab this bowl invite. Nutt's team was competitive in its four losses too, with each coming by a TD or less and by a total of just 19 points. Jevan Snead (who transferred from Texas to get away from Colt McCoy), became eligible TY and was pretty good (55.7% / 2,470 yards / 23 TDs and 12 INTs). The running game averages 167.5 YPG (4.6 YPC), although no back had more than 644 yards. Dexter McCluster was a WR last year but was used in the team's "Wild Rebel" formation this year, rushing for 558 yards (5.9 per) while catching 38 passes. WRs Hodge (42 catches 16.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and Wallace (35 catches / 20.1 YPC / 6 TDs) both own excellent YPC averages. The Ole Miss defense allows 17.8 PPG and 293.8 YPG and both of those averages rank 14th in the nation. However, the Rebels haven't faced an offense like Texas Tech's. Let me note that Tim Tebow had his only 300-yard game of the years vs Ole Miss (24-of-38 for 319 yards) and the following week, Chris Smelley of South Carolina, a QB who threw just 13 TDs and 15 INTs on the year and has since lost his starting job, had 327 yards passing with three TDs vs the Rebels. I shudder to think what a motivated Graham Harrell might do. The key here is, I believe Harrell, the entire Tech team and coach Mike Leach will ALL be highly motivated for this game. Yes, Tech is disappointed that its 11-1 season (tying the single-season school record for wins previously set in 1953 and 1973) couldn't get them a BCS bowl bid but note that a loss here, would completely ruin Tech's year. Harrell completed 71.5 percent of this throws for 4,747 yards. He has 32 career 300-yard games with 20 of those games being of the 400-yard variety. He enters this game with 15,429 career passing yards, the second-most yards all-time (Timmy Chang of Hawaii is the all-time leader with 17,072 yards) and his 130 TD passes is second to only Colt Brennan (131) on the all-time list. Harrell was NOT even invited to New York as a Heisman finalist. He HAS something to prove and take note of what he's done in his previous two bowl games. He threw for 445 yards with two TDs plus ran for another, as the Red Raiders pulled off the biggest comeback in bowl history in 2006, rallying from 31 points down to beat Minnesota, 44-41 (OT) in the Insight Bowl. He then threw for 407 yards and three scores in LY's Gator Bowl, helping Texas Tech overcome a 17-point deficit in the final four minutes of a 31-28 win over Virginia. In the second halves of Harrell's two bowl games, the Red Raiders have outscored their opponents, 71-13! WR Michael Crabtree had 93 receptions for 1,135 yards and 18 TDs this season, becoming the first repeat winner of the Biletnikoff Award (nation's country's top receiver), after he was the first freshman to win the honor in 2007. Leach is known for his passing attack but the team's 118.9 YPG on the ground (4.7 YPC / 28 TDs), is the highest in the Leach era. Tech's OL averages 6' 6" and more than 320 pounds and has allowed just 12 sacks (Harrell attempted 568 passes!). While Tech doesn't run often, Batch (742 yards / 6.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and Woods (670 yards / 5.0 YPC / 12 TDs) have been amazingly efficient. One also can't overlook the Tech defense, which also produced a Leach era-best, allowing 133.5 YPG on the ground (3.9 YPC). I am a big fan of Houston Nutt, but this is a tough matchup for him. The 'public' and 'wise guys' are "all over" Ole Miss in this game but I see no way the Rebels can trade scores with Texas Tech. Entering its Nov 22 game at Norman, Texas Tech had scored at least 30 points in 14 straight games but as we all know, the Red Raiders were never in that game, losing 65-21. Tech entered that game No. 2 in the nation but that one loss crippled the team's chances for a shot at the national championship game and made them a long shot to even appear in the Big 12 title game (they didn't). Tech's "let down" game came the next Saturday in a home game with Baylor and the "after effects" of the Oklahoma loss were in evidence. Tech was sloppy and when the Bears scored on their opening drive of the third quarter, Tech was down 28-14. However, showing what he was made of (playing with a injury to his throwing hand and without Crabtree), Harrell led the Red Raiders to three second-half TDs and a 35-28 win. Tech enters the game averaging 536.2 YPG and 44.6 PPG (both figures rank 4th in the nation). After scoring 35 points vs Baylor, Tech has now scored 30 or more in 27 of its last 30 games and while the Ole Miss 'D' has been very good this year, remember that Tebow and even Chris Smelley, 'lit them up.' Tech's a much better program than most people realize. The Red Raiders have now posted 16 consecutive non-losing seasons and are the ONLY school in the Big 12 to have posted consecutive winning seasons, despite playing in the much tougher South Division (with Okla, Okla. St, Texas and Tex A&M). As for Mike Leach, he's now led Tech to a bowl game in all NINE of his seasons at Lubbock and the man who had "any number of chances" to capitalize on Tech's tremendous 2008 season, decided to stay put with the Red Raiders. This will be Tech's 32nd all-time bowl but the Red Raiders are just 10-20-1. However, after losing in his first two bowl appearances with the Red Raiders, Leach has won FIVE of the last six. Tech has never played in a BCS bowl and in three previous Cotton Bowls (the school's biggest bowl stage to-date), the Red Raiders have gone 0-3, losing in games following the 1938 and 1994 seasons, plus following the 2005 season under Leach, when Alabama kicked a game-winning 45-yard FG with 0:00. That was then and this is now. Harrell took over at QB the last two seasons and I've already given you his bowl resume. This time around, no second-half dramatics will be necessary, as the Red Raiders win "in style!"
Bowl Game of the Year Texas Tech
Larry's Las Vegas Insider- NCAA Football
Alabama has a great bowl history, as this Sugar Bowl appearance marks its NCAA-leading 56th bowl game (31 wins, including an 8-4 mark in 12 previous Sugar Bowls). In fact, the Sugar Bowl has been very good to Alabama, last appearing after the 1992 season, when its 34-13 win over then-No. 1 Miami-Florida capped a 13-0 season and gave head coach Gene Stallings his only national title. Legendary coach Bear Bryant won national titles at Alabama after Sugar Bowl victories following the 1962, '78 and '79 seasons. While Utah can't match Alabama's longtime bowl success, the Utes became the first non-BCS school to crash the BCS bowl 'party' back in 2004, when Urban Meyer's team (led by QB Alex Smith) capped a 12-0 season with a 35-7 win over Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl. This year's Sugar Bowl will be Utah's sixth straight bowl appearance and with Boston College losing on Dec 31 to Vandy in the Music City Bowl, the Utes' seven-game bowl winning streak is the longest active one in all of college football. Utah (12-0) is the only remaining unbeaten team in CFB in 2008, now that Boise State lost to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl and with 13 consecutive wins (going back to LY's 35-32 bowl win over Navy), the Utes also stand alone with the longest active winning streak in CFB (Alabama had won 13 straight as well, before losing 31-20 to Florida in the SEC championship game). Just how good are the Utes? They are clearly better than LY's Hawaii team which was dominated by Georgia 41-10 in LY's Sugar Bowl but I don't think they are anywhere near as good as their previous BCS bowl team in 2004 or the Boise St team which finished 13-0 in the 2006 season, with that dramatic and memorable 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Brian Johnson (68.3 percent / 2,636 yards / 24 TDs and 9 INTs) is a quality QB and a "winner" but his receivers corps is rather mediocre. Utah owns nice balance on offense with 236.8 YPG passing and 168.4 YPG (4.3 YPC and 23 TDs) on the ground. Again however, the team's main two running backs are rather ordinary, with Asiata (666 YR / 5.0 YPC / 11 TDs) and Mack (533 YR / 4.5 YPC / 3 TDs) hardly distinguishing themselves. Utah went 4-0 in games decided by three points or less this year, plus won at Air Force 30-23, by scoring the game-winning TD with just 58 seconds left. Utah caught Oregon St in the very first game after its stunning upset of USC (a great spot for the Utes), yet trailed 28-20 late, before scoring a TD (plus a two-point conversion) with 1:29 left, then winning the game on a 37-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. In a Thursday night game at home vcs TCU (the team I feel is the best non-BCS conference team), the Utes did little or nothing all game and only missed opportunities by TCU (two INTs and two missed FGs were 'killers'), kept Utah alive. Johnson was brilliant in a last-minute 80-yard TD drive (completed 7-of-9 passes for all 80 yards), that gave Utah a 13-10 win. However, let's note that the Alabama defense the Utes face is very similar to TCU's, which held the Utes in check all game (had gained less than 200 yards before that final drive) and held Utah's running game to 45 yards on 25 attempts (1.8 YPC). No one stopped the run better than TCU this year, but Alabama's 'D' was no slouch, allowing 78.8 YPG (2.8 YPC) and only four rushing TDs. It ranks third in total D (256.9 YPG ) and sixth in scoring (13.0 PPG). Utah does not have the speed and play-making ability on offense to score much vs Alabama, which held NINE of its 13 opponents to 14 points or less. The Alabama offense is hardly prolific but it made one or zero turnovers in 11 of its 13 games. JP Wilson is a mediocre QB (57.8 percent / 1,655 yards / 6 TDs and 5 INTs) but he doesn't make mistakes. The running game is very good, averaging 196.5 YPG (4.8 YPC) with 32 TDs. Coffee has 1,347 yards (6.1 YPC and 10 TDs) and with 125 yards in the Sugar Bowl, can break Bobby Humphrey's single-season school rushing mark. Ingram is more than just a by-stander in the backfield, adding 702 yards (5.2 YPC) and 12 TDs. Other than Jones (51 catches / 16.6 YPC / 4 TDs), there are no pass-catchers of note but Alabama is the perfect example of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. Saban's had his team properly prepared for every big test this year. Alabama met then-No. 9 Clemson in its season-opener in the Georgia Dome and led 23-3 at the half in a 34-10 win. At then-No.3 Georgia on Sep 27, the Tide rolled to a 31-0 halftime lead "between the hedges," in a 41-30 win and the Tide earned a hard-fought 27-21 OT win in Baton Rogue over LY's defending national champs, after LSU jumped to a 14-7 ead after the first quarter. In the SEC title game against Florida, the Gators scored on the their first possession to lead 7-0 but Alabama outscored the Gators 20-10, taking a 20-17 lead into the fourth quarter, before Tim Tebow played arguably his best quarter of football in his career. Now, Saban has a chance to validate the season by bouncing back from that loss with a convincing win over a very beatable foe. Anything less, will leave Alabama fans wondering just how good this team is. I for one, think it's pretty good and that this Utah team would have been lucky to finish .500 playing in the SEC.
Las Vegas Insider on Alabama
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP = 16-9
COTTON BOWL
This will be the 5th all-time meeting between these schools (2-2 SU & TT 2-1-1 ATS). Ole Miss is 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS vs TT in bowl gms (‘86 & ‘98 Independence). Leach is 5-3 (3-5 ATS) in bowls guiding TT to the postssn every yr at the helm (9th str). TT is 0-3 SU & 0-2 ATS in the Cotton Bowl. First yr HC Nutt has Ole Miss playing in its 1st bowl S/‘03 when Eli Manning led the Rebels to a 31-28 win (-2’) over Okla St in the Cotton. Nutt is 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in bowls (all at Ark), but 2-0 ATS in the Cotton (Ole Miss is 2-1 SU & 1-0 ATS all-time in the Cotton). TT has pulled the “Houdini” act the L2Y in bowls escaping 31 & 14 pt deficits & outscoring foes 41-7 in the 4Q. Red Raiders were 2-0 TY as a SD fav, but haven’t played well to end the reg ssn (0-2 ATS) while the Rebels were 4-0 in the dog role incl an outright upset over #1 Florida (Gators only loss TY). Nutt is 15-8 ATS w/6 outright upsets over schools ranked in the Top 10 (2-0
ATS, 1-1 SU TY). Both tms play on turf, but TT is 0-4 ATS on grass & UM is 3-1 ATS. TT has faced 6 bowl tms going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS outscoring foes by 10 ppg & outgaining them by 62 ypg. Ole Miss is 3-4 SU, but 5-2 ATS (+2 ppg, +35 ypg) vs bowl tms. Both tms have no Fr starters with 17 upperclassman (77%), but TT has 10 Sr starters to Ole Miss’ 7. TT will not have to leave the state (346 mile trip), but Ole Miss (543 miles) will be well represented playing in just their 3rd NYD bowl S/’72 (TT’s 4th S/’57).
It has been a dream ssn for Ole Miss as new HC Nutt took the talent former HC Orgeron had stockpiled and produced the tm’s 1st winning season S/’03 earning him co-SEC COY honors. QB Snead, who
incidentally is from Stephenville, TX (about 2 hrs from Dallas), transferred from Texas and sat out ‘07, so he was learning his 3rd off system TY and came on strong down the stretch avg’g 201 pass ypg (57.5%) with a 13-2 ratio in UM’s 5 gm win streak to end the ssn. As usual, Nutt has a strong stable of backs but TY used speedy WR McCluster in the “Wild Rebel” formation (1100 total yds). WR’s Wallace and Hodge rank #7 & #8 in the SEC in rec ypg with Wallace (20.1) having the highest ypc of any of the SEC’s top 10 rec’s. The OL avg 6’4” 327 led by 1st Tm AA Michael Oher who won the SEC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy TY and will be a top 5 draft pick in ‘09. UM has our #18 offense and #12 D. The DL avg 6’3” 273 led by 1st Tm SEC DT Peria Jerry who led the SEC in tfl TY (17) and UM ranks #2 in the SEC in rush D allowing just 85 ypg (2.6) and #1 in the SEC in sks (35) despite top sackman DE Hardy (8.5) missing 5 gms with inj
(still 2nd Tm SEC). The LB corps is deep and was shuffled throughout the yr while the secondary is one of the tm’s weak spots (still improved from #87 LY to #61 TY). The Rebels rank #46 in our sp tms rankings
(#74 LY) with a fake punt for a FD and blk’d xp being keys in their win over Florida. The returnmen and P Park are solid and PK Shene earned 1st Tm SEC honors with his 3 misses from 47, 45 and 50 yds. Texas Tech is known for its potent off (ranked #3) that scores at will as HC Leach (co-B12 COY) has that kind of reputation. Under Leach TY TT featured its best all-around squad avg 45 ppg & 536 ypg. The big diff from the past tms was the ability to run the ball & stop the run as the 119 ypg (4.7) was a Leach-era high & the 134 ypg (3.9) all’d was a low. Unitas Award winner QB Harrell is having another outstanding yr (ranks tops in many B12 off categories) & is TT’s all-time passing leader (15,399). He broke 2 fingers on his non-throwing hand in the last gm vs BU, but will be fine for the bowl. What a difference a yr makes as LY RB Woods was in the doghouse, but TY earned 2nd Tm B12 honors & forms a great RB duo w/
Batch. In fact when TT topped 100+ rush yds they were 10-0 (6-4 ATS) & 1-1 (0-2 ATS) when held below that number. 1st Tm B12/2x Biletnikoff winner/Walter Camp semi-finalist WR Crabtree is the #1 target. He has scored in 10 gms (83%), but has just four 100+ yd performances due to a ankle inj that should be close to 100% by bowl time. The OL is massive averaging 6’6” 323 (3 Sr starters, 2 earned All-B12 honors), uses the biggest splits of any tm & has all’d just 11 sks (1.8%!). The D is ranked #38 in McNeill’s 1st full ssn as DC. The DL avg 6’4” 264 (1 Sr) tallying 26 (87%) of the 30 tm sks. They are led by 1st Tm B12 DE Williams. The secondary features 1st Tm B12 S McBath (#6 NCAA w/6 int) & S Charbonnet. TT ranks #37 in our pass eff def all’g 238 ypg (64%) with a 16-17 ratio (leads B12 in int). TT has the #90 ST unit & doesn’t have a strong legged K, but walk-on Williams has filled in adequately. Realistically UM could be 11-1 as their 4 losses were by an avg of 4.8 ppg. They lost to WF on a last second FG after leading much of the gm, outgained Vandy 385-202 but had 6 TO’s, lost to 12-1 Bama by 4 and led SC for much of the gm before falling by a TD. Ole Miss is ecstatic to be in the Cotton Bowl in QB Snead’s neck of the woods while TT is disappointed as they were in the BCS hunt until being blown out by Okla.
FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI BY 4
RATING: 3*
LIBERTY BOWL
The Liberty Bowl’s 50th anniversary will mark the 2nd meeting between the schools with UK winning the 1st, 6-3 in ‘93. CUSA Champ EC is making its 3rd trip (1-1 SU/ATS) to Memphis and comes here on a 3 gm win streak (2-1 ATS) while winning 6 of L/7 (3-4 ATS) despite being devastated by inj/susp. EC has used 44 diff starters (23 on off, 21 on def) and 9 players from the preseason 2-deep have been lost for the ssn. This is their 3 str bowl under HC Holtz (1-1 SU/ATS) incl LY’s 41-38 upset (+10’) of #24 Boise St in the Hawaii Bowl. Holtz reportedly turned down the Syracuse job but remains a hot HC candidate. UK has a chance to win 3 bowls in a row for the 1st time in school history (1-1 ATS). LY UK beat a susp-riddled Fla St tm in the Music City Bowl 35-28 (-9). This is UK’s first trip to the Liberty and they are 7-5 all-time in bowls (2-3 SU & ATS S/‘90). HC Brooks is 3-3 in bowls (1-5 ATS) and played in the Liberty Bowl in ‘62 as a Sr at Oreg St. EC played 4 BCS schools TY going 2-2 SU/ATS, incl upsets of ACC Champ VT and WVU to open the ssn which saw the Pirates ranked #14 in the polls. EC then lost to NCSt and VA and their BCS bubble was burst. Overall, they played 6 bowl elig tms and went 3-3 SU/ATS, outscoring opps 23-22 despite being outgained 353-332. UK played 5 bowl elig tms going 0-5 SU (2-3 ATS) while being outscored 35-19 and outgained 414-267. In fact, UK didn’t beat a tm that finished with a winning record TY. The Cats finished 3-2 ATS as an AD while the Pirates were 0-5 ATS as an AF. EC features 14 upperclassmen starters, incl
6 Sr’s, while KY has 18 upperclassmen starters with 8 Sr’s. UK has had the crowd edge by far in each of their L/2 bowls and they should have the fan edge here again with the game a reasonable drive away. EC beat Tulsa 27-24 (+11’) to capture the CUSA Title, their 1st conf title S/’76 (Southern). The Pirates held TU to a ssn-low 399 yds (avg 565) while forcing 7 TO’s. The D (#46) has been the strength all’g just 20.8 ppg and forcing 32 TO’s (T-#4 NCAA). They are all’g 138 ypg (3.9) rush and the front 4 is led by DE Wilson, who is tied for 6th in NCAA with 10.5 sks. The LB corps has battled inj’s, but Sr captain Bell has been a mainstay and leads the tm in tkls. FS Eskridge leads a secondary that ranks #32 in
our pass eff D rankings all’g 197 ypg (60%) with a 17-21 ratio. The offense has struggled (#92) avg 24 ppg, while avg just 3.4 ypc (128 ypg). They are avg 208 yds pass as QB Pinkney became more of a game manager as the year progressed. RB Whitley became the main ball carrier midssn, avg 71 ypg (4.2) over the L/6. TE Drew is the leading active receiver as WR Harris was lost for ssn with a broken foot. The Pirates have our #27 ST’s and while the P and the coverage units have been solid, K Hartman has been inconsistent making just 19-29 FG’s with just 4-11 from 40+. UK’s season has been inj-plagued with their #88 off losing their top rusher (Locke), top receiver (Lyons-still finished as top receiver despite missing L/6) and 2 starting OL not to mention losing proj starting QB Pulley before the season started (dismissed). LY UK’s offense led the tm to a bowl while their D was a liability at times. TY the D kept UK in gms while the offense struggled. QB Hartline started the 1st 8 games, but was benched for mobile true frosh QB Cobb. Cobb started the L/4 and the off was much more productive with him in the lineup. He was inj’d in the ssn finale vs Tenn and the off produced only 193 ttl yds. Cobb had a knee scope and is doubtful for the bowl. UK’s OL avg 6’4” 296 and is #1 in
the SEC in sks all’d (12, 3.1%). UK OC/QB coach Sanders is up for the UT Chattanooga HC job. UK’s #43 D has also suffered inj’s with 4 starters missing significant gm action TY incl MLB Johnson who missed 2 full gms and parts of others. Overall, their D has allowed 70 ypg less than ‘07 and 7.9 ppg less and should be healthier for the bowl. UK is #42 in our pass D rankings allowing 185 ypg (53%) with a 17-12 ratio led by 1st Tm CB Lindley (#2 in SEC in PD). UK ranks #22 in our ST, but their top 2 PR’s
are out (Lyons) or doubtful (Cobb) and their top KR is out (Locke). P Masthay leads the SEC in punt avg (45.3) and teamed up with Tydlacka for a tm net of 38.4. Though UK’s season has been disappointing, they are excited to be going to a different bowl TY (Music City L2Y), and will be motivated about being dog vs a CUSA team. The last time UK was a
bowl dog, they upset Clemson 28-20 (+10’) in the ‘06 Music City Bowl. Both teams have numerous inj’s especially in their WR corps, but UK still has the edge with their SEC depth. Downgrade this play
to a 1H if UK becomes the favorite.
FORECAST: KENTUCKY BY 4
RATING: 2* KENTUCKY
SUGAR BOWL
Bama leads the NCAA in bowl games (56) and bowl wins (31) with the Sugar Bowl being their most frequent destination (8-4 SU) with the Tide clinching national titles here 4x’s incl their last trip, a 34-13 win
over Miami finishing a 13-0 ssn in ‘92. Bama is 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) in bowls S/‘98, but Saban led the tm to a 30-24 win (-3’) over Colo in LY’s Independence Bowl. Saban is 4-5 SU/ATS overall in bowls and 2-0 SU/
ATS in 2 Sugar Bowl appearances at LSU. This is Utah’s 6th consec bowl gm & they have won their L/7 while covering 5 of the L/6. Whittingham is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) in bowls and has a close relationship with Florida’s Meyer who just faced Bama in the SEC Champ gm. UT has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 9 Sr’s while UA has 18 upperclassmen incl 7 Sr’s in starting roles. UT is 0-6 vs SEC tms (SU) but has never
faced Bama. The Utes played 5 bowl eligible tms and went 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS), outscoring those foes 34-20 and outgaining them 404-346. Utah beat 3 ranked foes TY (TCU, BYU, Oreg St) plus Michigan and under
Whitt they’re 6-3 SU vs BCS tms (4-5 ATS). Bama faced 7 bowl elig tms going 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS outscoring those tms by 10 ppg while outgaining them by 66 ypg. Bama went 7-3 as a fav TY (4-3 DD), but was 6-17
ATS as a fav the 3 yrs prior. UT pulled 2 outright upsets as a dog TY and is on a 5-1 streak as a dog overall. The L/2 times Utah was a DD dog, they pulled outright upsets (L’ville 44-35, +14, UCLA 44-6, +16). Both
tms expect to sell out their ticket allotments (17,500) but this should certainly be a pro-Tide crowd. Utah was a darkhorse in their own conference as all the talk during the offseason was about BYU. The
Utes won in Ann Arbor to open the yr, then later needed an 11 pt rally late vs Oreg St. They were caught looking ahead vs NM (won by 3) then in a Thurs night showdown vs TCU got a TD pass w/:48 left for a
13-10 win. In the Holy War, UT forced 6 TO’s and won 48-24 to again bust the BCS (orig busters in ‘04) and now has the nation’s longest win streak. The #24 off is led by the MWC Off POY QB Johnson who holds the
Utah record for career wins (passed Alex Smith) and has won 19 of 20 since ret’g from inj LY. RB’s Mack and Asiata were splitting carries evenly until the TCU gm and both will get carries here. The OL avg 6’4”
306 with 2 Sr’s and the unit has started 97% of the gms together. They pave the way for 168 ypg (4.3) and have all’d 23 sks (6.2%). Utah has our #23 D and DC Andersen will coach the bowl before leaving to be the
HC at Utah St. The DL avg 6’4” 258 with 1 Sr, all’g 105 ypg (3.3) and tallying 13 (62%) of the tm’s 21 sks. The Utes rank #23 in our pass eff D all’g 192 ypg (55%) with a 14-17 ratio. AA Sakoda leads our #13 ST’s
unit. He is the most decorated ST’s performer in MWC history, and is #1 in the NCAA for active dual K & P in career P and P yds. He broke UT’s 76 year old career pts scored rec’d and once made 56 str PAT. The KR
unit avg 23.0 ypr but they avg only 6.5 ypr on PR. UT gives up 21.4 ypr on KR and a solid 3.1 ypr on PR. Saban took the Tide from a 7-6 record in his 1st yr to the SEC Champ gm and a 12-1 record in his 2nd yr earning himself co-SEC COY honors. Bama spent 5 wks at #1 before succumbing to the mighty Gators, but still earned a BCS bid with their strong ground game and top-notch D. UA’s #23 offense is managed by QB Wilson who is avg 161 pass ypg after avg 219 pass ypg in ‘07. The ground gm finished #2 in the SEC avg 197 ypg (4.8) led by 1st Tm SEC RB Coffee who had five 100+ yd rush gms TY. True frosh WR Jones (PS#1) is 6’4” 210 and earned 2nd Tm SEC honors. The OL avg 6’5” 308 with 2 Sr starters and has only all’d 17 sks (5.6%). LT Andre Smith won the Outland Trophy & is 1st Tm AA and should be a 1st RD DC if he heads to the NFL next yr. The Tide’s D ranks #5, making huge strides over LY incl improving the ppg
all’d from 22 to 13 TY. UA held opps to 79 ypg rush (2.8) (#4 NCAA in rush D, #3 in total D). The DL avg 6’5” 310 led by 1st Tm AA Cody who dominates the line of scrimmage. LB McClain led the tm in tkls and
earned 1st Tm SEC honors. Bama ranks #10 in our pass D rankings all’g 178 ypg (51%) with a 15-15 ratio. FS Johnson was 1st Tm SEC and led the league in PD (16) incl 3 int vs rival LSU (1 ret’d for TD, another
in OT). Bama is #57 in our ST rankings with exciting RS Arenas (2 PR TD’s, 2nd Tm SEC as RS & CB). The def on returns has been mediocre (allow 9.2 on PR, 21.7 KR) and they only avg’d 34.6 net on punts. K Tiffin has hit his L/6 FG’s but is just 3-7 from 40+. Utah has had a much longer layoff as their last game was Nov 22nd while Bama played in the SEC Title
gm Dec 6th. The difference between the SEC and the MWC will be apparent in team speed and at the line of scrimmage. Utah played 1 top-notch defense the entire season scoring only 13 pts vs TCU at home. Bama battled through their SEC schedule, and beat their 4 non-conf opp’s on avg by 33-8, incl Clemson. The D held 9 opp’s to 14 pts or less and we expect this dominating unit to take the Utes out of their game plan.
FORECAST: ALABAMA BY 17
RATING: 2* ALABAMA
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COTTON BOWL
This will be the 5th all-time meeting between these schools (2-2 SU & TT 2-1-1 ATS). Ole Miss is 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS vs TT in bowl gms (‘86 & ‘98 Independence). Leach is 5-3 (3-5 ATS) in bowls guiding TT to the postssn every yr at the helm (9th str). TT is 0-3 SU & 0-2 ATS in the Cotton Bowl. First yr HC Nutt has Ole Miss playing in its 1st bowl S/‘03 when Eli Manning led the Rebels to a 31-28 win (-2’) over Okla St in the Cotton. Nutt is 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in bowls (all at Ark), but 2-0 ATS in the Cotton (Ole Miss is 2-1 SU & 1-0 ATS all-time in the Cotton). TT has pulled the “Houdini” act the L2Y in bowls escaping 31 & 14 pt deficits & outscoring foes 41-7 in the 4Q. Red Raiders were 2-0 TY as a SD fav, but haven’t played well to end the reg ssn (0-2 ATS) while the Rebels were 4-0 in the dog role incl an outright upset over #1 Florida (Gators only loss TY). Nutt is 15-8 ATS w/6 outright upsets over schools ranked in the Top 10 (2-0
ATS, 1-1 SU TY). Both tms play on turf, but TT is 0-4 ATS on grass & UM is 3-1 ATS. TT has faced 6 bowl tms going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS outscoring foes by 10 ppg & outgaining them by 62 ypg. Ole Miss is 3-4 SU, but 5-2 ATS (+2 ppg, +35 ypg) vs bowl tms. Both tms have no Fr starters with 17 upperclassman (77%), but TT has 10 Sr starters to Ole Miss’ 7. TT will not have to leave the state (346 mile trip), but Ole Miss (543 miles) will be well represented playing in just their 3rd NYD bowl S/’72 (TT’s 4th S/’57).
It has been a dream ssn for Ole Miss as new HC Nutt took the talent former HC Orgeron had stockpiled and produced the tm’s 1st winning season S/’03 earning him co-SEC COY honors. QB Snead, who
incidentally is from Stephenville, TX (about 2 hrs from Dallas), transferred from Texas and sat out ‘07, so he was learning his 3rd off system TY and came on strong down the stretch avg’g 201 pass ypg (57.5%) with a 13-2 ratio in UM’s 5 gm win streak to end the ssn. As usual, Nutt has a strong stable of backs but TY used speedy WR McCluster in the “Wild Rebel” formation (1100 total yds). WR’s Wallace and Hodge rank #7 & #8 in the SEC in rec ypg with Wallace (20.1) having the highest ypc of any of the SEC’s top 10 rec’s. The OL avg 6’4” 327 led by 1st Tm AA Michael Oher who won the SEC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy TY and will be a top 5 draft pick in ‘09. UM has our #18 offense and #12 D. The DL avg 6’3” 273 led by 1st Tm SEC DT Peria Jerry who led the SEC in tfl TY (17) and UM ranks #2 in the SEC in rush D allowing just 85 ypg (2.6) and #1 in the SEC in sks (35) despite top sackman DE Hardy (8.5) missing 5 gms with inj
(still 2nd Tm SEC). The LB corps is deep and was shuffled throughout the yr while the secondary is one of the tm’s weak spots (still improved from #87 LY to #61 TY). The Rebels rank #46 in our sp tms rankings
(#74 LY) with a fake punt for a FD and blk’d xp being keys in their win over Florida. The returnmen and P Park are solid and PK Shene earned 1st Tm SEC honors with his 3 misses from 47, 45 and 50 yds. Texas Tech is known for its potent off (ranked #3) that scores at will as HC Leach (co-B12 COY) has that kind of reputation. Under Leach TY TT featured its best all-around squad avg 45 ppg & 536 ypg. The big diff from the past tms was the ability to run the ball & stop the run as the 119 ypg (4.7) was a Leach-era high & the 134 ypg (3.9) all’d was a low. Unitas Award winner QB Harrell is having another outstanding yr (ranks tops in many B12 off categories) & is TT’s all-time passing leader (15,399). He broke 2 fingers on his non-throwing hand in the last gm vs BU, but will be fine for the bowl. What a difference a yr makes as LY RB Woods was in the doghouse, but TY earned 2nd Tm B12 honors & forms a great RB duo w/
Batch. In fact when TT topped 100+ rush yds they were 10-0 (6-4 ATS) & 1-1 (0-2 ATS) when held below that number. 1st Tm B12/2x Biletnikoff winner/Walter Camp semi-finalist WR Crabtree is the #1 target. He has scored in 10 gms (83%), but has just four 100+ yd performances due to a ankle inj that should be close to 100% by bowl time. The OL is massive averaging 6’6” 323 (3 Sr starters, 2 earned All-B12 honors), uses the biggest splits of any tm & has all’d just 11 sks (1.8%!). The D is ranked #38 in McNeill’s 1st full ssn as DC. The DL avg 6’4” 264 (1 Sr) tallying 26 (87%) of the 30 tm sks. They are led by 1st Tm B12 DE Williams. The secondary features 1st Tm B12 S McBath (#6 NCAA w/6 int) & S Charbonnet. TT ranks #37 in our pass eff def all’g 238 ypg (64%) with a 16-17 ratio (leads B12 in int). TT has the #90 ST unit & doesn’t have a strong legged K, but walk-on Williams has filled in adequately. Realistically UM could be 11-1 as their 4 losses were by an avg of 4.8 ppg. They lost to WF on a last second FG after leading much of the gm, outgained Vandy 385-202 but had 6 TO’s, lost to 12-1 Bama by 4 and led SC for much of the gm before falling by a TD. Ole Miss is ecstatic to be in the Cotton Bowl in QB Snead’s neck of the woods while TT is disappointed as they were in the BCS hunt until being blown out by Okla.
FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI BY 4
RATING: 3*
LIBERTY BOWL
The Liberty Bowl’s 50th anniversary will mark the 2nd meeting between the schools with UK winning the 1st, 6-3 in ‘93. CUSA Champ EC is making its 3rd trip (1-1 SU/ATS) to Memphis and comes here on a 3 gm win streak (2-1 ATS) while winning 6 of L/7 (3-4 ATS) despite being devastated by inj/susp. EC has used 44 diff starters (23 on off, 21 on def) and 9 players from the preseason 2-deep have been lost for the ssn. This is their 3 str bowl under HC Holtz (1-1 SU/ATS) incl LY’s 41-38 upset (+10’) of #24 Boise St in the Hawaii Bowl. Holtz reportedly turned down the Syracuse job but remains a hot HC candidate. UK has a chance to win 3 bowls in a row for the 1st time in school history (1-1 ATS). LY UK beat a susp-riddled Fla St tm in the Music City Bowl 35-28 (-9). This is UK’s first trip to the Liberty and they are 7-5 all-time in bowls (2-3 SU & ATS S/‘90). HC Brooks is 3-3 in bowls (1-5 ATS) and played in the Liberty Bowl in ‘62 as a Sr at Oreg St. EC played 4 BCS schools TY going 2-2 SU/ATS, incl upsets of ACC Champ VT and WVU to open the ssn which saw the Pirates ranked #14 in the polls. EC then lost to NCSt and VA and their BCS bubble was burst. Overall, they played 6 bowl elig tms and went 3-3 SU/ATS, outscoring opps 23-22 despite being outgained 353-332. UK played 5 bowl elig tms going 0-5 SU (2-3 ATS) while being outscored 35-19 and outgained 414-267. In fact, UK didn’t beat a tm that finished with a winning record TY. The Cats finished 3-2 ATS as an AD while the Pirates were 0-5 ATS as an AF. EC features 14 upperclassmen starters, incl
6 Sr’s, while KY has 18 upperclassmen starters with 8 Sr’s. UK has had the crowd edge by far in each of their L/2 bowls and they should have the fan edge here again with the game a reasonable drive away. EC beat Tulsa 27-24 (+11’) to capture the CUSA Title, their 1st conf title S/’76 (Southern). The Pirates held TU to a ssn-low 399 yds (avg 565) while forcing 7 TO’s. The D (#46) has been the strength all’g just 20.8 ppg and forcing 32 TO’s (T-#4 NCAA). They are all’g 138 ypg (3.9) rush and the front 4 is led by DE Wilson, who is tied for 6th in NCAA with 10.5 sks. The LB corps has battled inj’s, but Sr captain Bell has been a mainstay and leads the tm in tkls. FS Eskridge leads a secondary that ranks #32 in
our pass eff D rankings all’g 197 ypg (60%) with a 17-21 ratio. The offense has struggled (#92) avg 24 ppg, while avg just 3.4 ypc (128 ypg). They are avg 208 yds pass as QB Pinkney became more of a game manager as the year progressed. RB Whitley became the main ball carrier midssn, avg 71 ypg (4.2) over the L/6. TE Drew is the leading active receiver as WR Harris was lost for ssn with a broken foot. The Pirates have our #27 ST’s and while the P and the coverage units have been solid, K Hartman has been inconsistent making just 19-29 FG’s with just 4-11 from 40+. UK’s season has been inj-plagued with their #88 off losing their top rusher (Locke), top receiver (Lyons-still finished as top receiver despite missing L/6) and 2 starting OL not to mention losing proj starting QB Pulley before the season started (dismissed). LY UK’s offense led the tm to a bowl while their D was a liability at times. TY the D kept UK in gms while the offense struggled. QB Hartline started the 1st 8 games, but was benched for mobile true frosh QB Cobb. Cobb started the L/4 and the off was much more productive with him in the lineup. He was inj’d in the ssn finale vs Tenn and the off produced only 193 ttl yds. Cobb had a knee scope and is doubtful for the bowl. UK’s OL avg 6’4” 296 and is #1 in
the SEC in sks all’d (12, 3.1%). UK OC/QB coach Sanders is up for the UT Chattanooga HC job. UK’s #43 D has also suffered inj’s with 4 starters missing significant gm action TY incl MLB Johnson who missed 2 full gms and parts of others. Overall, their D has allowed 70 ypg less than ‘07 and 7.9 ppg less and should be healthier for the bowl. UK is #42 in our pass D rankings allowing 185 ypg (53%) with a 17-12 ratio led by 1st Tm CB Lindley (#2 in SEC in PD). UK ranks #22 in our ST, but their top 2 PR’s
are out (Lyons) or doubtful (Cobb) and their top KR is out (Locke). P Masthay leads the SEC in punt avg (45.3) and teamed up with Tydlacka for a tm net of 38.4. Though UK’s season has been disappointing, they are excited to be going to a different bowl TY (Music City L2Y), and will be motivated about being dog vs a CUSA team. The last time UK was a
bowl dog, they upset Clemson 28-20 (+10’) in the ‘06 Music City Bowl. Both teams have numerous inj’s especially in their WR corps, but UK still has the edge with their SEC depth. Downgrade this play
to a 1H if UK becomes the favorite.
FORECAST: KENTUCKY BY 4
RATING: 2* KENTUCKY
SUGAR BOWL
Bama leads the NCAA in bowl games (56) and bowl wins (31) with the Sugar Bowl being their most frequent destination (8-4 SU) with the Tide clinching national titles here 4x’s incl their last trip, a 34-13 win
over Miami finishing a 13-0 ssn in ‘92. Bama is 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) in bowls S/‘98, but Saban led the tm to a 30-24 win (-3’) over Colo in LY’s Independence Bowl. Saban is 4-5 SU/ATS overall in bowls and 2-0 SU/
ATS in 2 Sugar Bowl appearances at LSU. This is Utah’s 6th consec bowl gm & they have won their L/7 while covering 5 of the L/6. Whittingham is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) in bowls and has a close relationship with Florida’s Meyer who just faced Bama in the SEC Champ gm. UT has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 9 Sr’s while UA has 18 upperclassmen incl 7 Sr’s in starting roles. UT is 0-6 vs SEC tms (SU) but has never
faced Bama. The Utes played 5 bowl eligible tms and went 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS), outscoring those foes 34-20 and outgaining them 404-346. Utah beat 3 ranked foes TY (TCU, BYU, Oreg St) plus Michigan and under
Whitt they’re 6-3 SU vs BCS tms (4-5 ATS). Bama faced 7 bowl elig tms going 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS outscoring those tms by 10 ppg while outgaining them by 66 ypg. Bama went 7-3 as a fav TY (4-3 DD), but was 6-17
ATS as a fav the 3 yrs prior. UT pulled 2 outright upsets as a dog TY and is on a 5-1 streak as a dog overall. The L/2 times Utah was a DD dog, they pulled outright upsets (L’ville 44-35, +14, UCLA 44-6, +16). Both
tms expect to sell out their ticket allotments (17,500) but this should certainly be a pro-Tide crowd. Utah was a darkhorse in their own conference as all the talk during the offseason was about BYU. The
Utes won in Ann Arbor to open the yr, then later needed an 11 pt rally late vs Oreg St. They were caught looking ahead vs NM (won by 3) then in a Thurs night showdown vs TCU got a TD pass w/:48 left for a
13-10 win. In the Holy War, UT forced 6 TO’s and won 48-24 to again bust the BCS (orig busters in ‘04) and now has the nation’s longest win streak. The #24 off is led by the MWC Off POY QB Johnson who holds the
Utah record for career wins (passed Alex Smith) and has won 19 of 20 since ret’g from inj LY. RB’s Mack and Asiata were splitting carries evenly until the TCU gm and both will get carries here. The OL avg 6’4”
306 with 2 Sr’s and the unit has started 97% of the gms together. They pave the way for 168 ypg (4.3) and have all’d 23 sks (6.2%). Utah has our #23 D and DC Andersen will coach the bowl before leaving to be the
HC at Utah St. The DL avg 6’4” 258 with 1 Sr, all’g 105 ypg (3.3) and tallying 13 (62%) of the tm’s 21 sks. The Utes rank #23 in our pass eff D all’g 192 ypg (55%) with a 14-17 ratio. AA Sakoda leads our #13 ST’s
unit. He is the most decorated ST’s performer in MWC history, and is #1 in the NCAA for active dual K & P in career P and P yds. He broke UT’s 76 year old career pts scored rec’d and once made 56 str PAT. The KR
unit avg 23.0 ypr but they avg only 6.5 ypr on PR. UT gives up 21.4 ypr on KR and a solid 3.1 ypr on PR. Saban took the Tide from a 7-6 record in his 1st yr to the SEC Champ gm and a 12-1 record in his 2nd yr earning himself co-SEC COY honors. Bama spent 5 wks at #1 before succumbing to the mighty Gators, but still earned a BCS bid with their strong ground game and top-notch D. UA’s #23 offense is managed by QB Wilson who is avg 161 pass ypg after avg 219 pass ypg in ‘07. The ground gm finished #2 in the SEC avg 197 ypg (4.8) led by 1st Tm SEC RB Coffee who had five 100+ yd rush gms TY. True frosh WR Jones (PS#1) is 6’4” 210 and earned 2nd Tm SEC honors. The OL avg 6’5” 308 with 2 Sr starters and has only all’d 17 sks (5.6%). LT Andre Smith won the Outland Trophy & is 1st Tm AA and should be a 1st RD DC if he heads to the NFL next yr. The Tide’s D ranks #5, making huge strides over LY incl improving the ppg
all’d from 22 to 13 TY. UA held opps to 79 ypg rush (2.8) (#4 NCAA in rush D, #3 in total D). The DL avg 6’5” 310 led by 1st Tm AA Cody who dominates the line of scrimmage. LB McClain led the tm in tkls and
earned 1st Tm SEC honors. Bama ranks #10 in our pass D rankings all’g 178 ypg (51%) with a 15-15 ratio. FS Johnson was 1st Tm SEC and led the league in PD (16) incl 3 int vs rival LSU (1 ret’d for TD, another
in OT). Bama is #57 in our ST rankings with exciting RS Arenas (2 PR TD’s, 2nd Tm SEC as RS & CB). The def on returns has been mediocre (allow 9.2 on PR, 21.7 KR) and they only avg’d 34.6 net on punts. K Tiffin has hit his L/6 FG’s but is just 3-7 from 40+. Utah has had a much longer layoff as their last game was Nov 22nd while Bama played in the SEC Title
gm Dec 6th. The difference between the SEC and the MWC will be apparent in team speed and at the line of scrimmage. Utah played 1 top-notch defense the entire season scoring only 13 pts vs TCU at home. Bama battled through their SEC schedule, and beat their 4 non-conf opp’s on avg by 33-8, incl Clemson. The D held 9 opp’s to 14 pts or less and we expect this dominating unit to take the Utes out of their game plan.
FORECAST: ALABAMA BY 17
RATING: 2* ALABAMA
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Wild Bill
Texas Tech -6 (5 units)
Red Raiders vs a club that has a coach with a poor bowl record and Red Raiders offense will control this tilt basically in their home field. TTU 38 Ole Miss 27.
Under 70 1/2 Miss-Tx Tech (5 units)
Over 46 Utah-Alabama (5 units)
Utes have not faced an offense with the caliber of the Tide...Tide has played much better clubs than Utah and with this one on turf it should help the Tide roll...Alabama 35 Utah 14...
Texas Tech -6 (5 units)
Red Raiders vs a club that has a coach with a poor bowl record and Red Raiders offense will control this tilt basically in their home field. TTU 38 Ole Miss 27.
Under 70 1/2 Miss-Tx Tech (5 units)
Over 46 Utah-Alabama (5 units)
Utes have not faced an offense with the caliber of the Tide...Tide has played much better clubs than Utah and with this one on turf it should help the Tide roll...Alabama 35 Utah 14...
Jeff Benton
Today's Complimentary Play
How about that easy free-play bowl winner with Iowa on New Year’s Day? I’m now on a 32-14 roll with free picks (7-3 over the last 10 days). Let’s continue that run by taking East Carolina as a short favorite against Kentucky in the Liberty Bowl.
No doubt that Kentucky (playing in the SEC) faced a more difficult schedule than East Carolina (playing in Conference USA). However, the Pirates did open the year with back-to-back upsets of Top 25 teams (they beat Virginia Tech 27-22 and West Virginia 24-3), and after a midseason slump, they rebounded to win six of their last seven, including their last three in a row.
On the other hand, the Wildcats were beyond lucky to get a bowl invite after losing their last three games and six of their last eight. They also went just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Kentucky’s biggest problem was that it couldn’t score, averaging less than 18 points during their 2-6 slump, scoring 17 or less five times. Despite extra practice sessions to prepare for this game, I can’t see that offense springing to life against an East Carolina defense that A) held Tulsa (one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation) to 24 points in the Conference USA championship game (a game that was played on Tulsa’s home field), and B) allowed just 16.4 ppg during its season-ending 6-1 surge.
Also, while Tulsa has quality wins on its ledger (Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Tulsa among them), Kentucky didn’t beat a team that finished with a winning record or qualified for a bowl. In the end, we’ve got two programs heading in opposite directions, and we’ll side with the squad that’s going north and laying a very reasonable price.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)
4♦ EAST CAROLINA (Liberty Bowl)
Today's Complimentary Play
How about that easy free-play bowl winner with Iowa on New Year’s Day? I’m now on a 32-14 roll with free picks (7-3 over the last 10 days). Let’s continue that run by taking East Carolina as a short favorite against Kentucky in the Liberty Bowl.
No doubt that Kentucky (playing in the SEC) faced a more difficult schedule than East Carolina (playing in Conference USA). However, the Pirates did open the year with back-to-back upsets of Top 25 teams (they beat Virginia Tech 27-22 and West Virginia 24-3), and after a midseason slump, they rebounded to win six of their last seven, including their last three in a row.
On the other hand, the Wildcats were beyond lucky to get a bowl invite after losing their last three games and six of their last eight. They also went just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Kentucky’s biggest problem was that it couldn’t score, averaging less than 18 points during their 2-6 slump, scoring 17 or less five times. Despite extra practice sessions to prepare for this game, I can’t see that offense springing to life against an East Carolina defense that A) held Tulsa (one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation) to 24 points in the Conference USA championship game (a game that was played on Tulsa’s home field), and B) allowed just 16.4 ppg during its season-ending 6-1 surge.
Also, while Tulsa has quality wins on its ledger (Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Tulsa among them), Kentucky didn’t beat a team that finished with a winning record or qualified for a bowl. In the end, we’ve got two programs heading in opposite directions, and we’ll side with the squad that’s going north and laying a very reasonable price.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)
4♦ EAST CAROLINA (Liberty Bowl)
BeatYourBookie.com
Daily Premium Football Winners for Friday
NCAA Friday Football
100* Play Utah (+9.5) over Alabama
(8:15 P.M. EST Kick-Off) (NCAA Bowl Game of the Year)
Utah is 13-4 ATS when playing in the 2nd half of the season
Utah is 5-1 SU & ATS on a neutral field when the total is between 42.5 and 49
Utah is 12-4 ATS coming off a conference win over the last 3 seasons
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Bonus NCAA Play
50* Play Kentucky (+3) over East Carolina
(5:00 P.M. EST Kick-Off)
East Carolina is 1-5 ATS when the total posted is 42 points or less
East Carolina is 2-7 ATS when playing as a favorite this season
East Carolina is 1-5 ATS coming off an UNDER the total
Daily Premium Football Winners for Friday
NCAA Friday Football
100* Play Utah (+9.5) over Alabama
(8:15 P.M. EST Kick-Off) (NCAA Bowl Game of the Year)
Utah is 13-4 ATS when playing in the 2nd half of the season
Utah is 5-1 SU & ATS on a neutral field when the total is between 42.5 and 49
Utah is 12-4 ATS coming off a conference win over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bonus NCAA Play
50* Play Kentucky (+3) over East Carolina
(5:00 P.M. EST Kick-Off)
East Carolina is 1-5 ATS when the total posted is 42 points or less
East Carolina is 2-7 ATS when playing as a favorite this season
East Carolina is 1-5 ATS coming off an UNDER the total
Bob Balfe --
College Football
Texas Tech -4.5 over Mississippi
Texas Tech obviously wanted to be in a bigger bowl game, but coach Leach will have his players ready to play. Mississippi plays great defense, but in a 60 minute game I do not see them hanging with Tech. The Red Raiders put up almost double the offense of Ole Miss and should get a big win in their home state today. Take Texas Tech.
East Carolina -3 over Kentucky
ECU was a fan favorite team this year when they jumped out of the gates early to beat West Virginia and VTech. Kentucky is just a 6-6 team who was lucky to get into a bowl game. These teams are pretty evenly matched so I will give the edge to ECU for having a better record this season. I am not a big fan of 6-6 teams making bowl games. Take ECU.
Utah +9.5 over Alabama
Utah is a really good football team with a lot of experience. Bama had a great season and was undefeated in the SEC until the title game against Florida. The betting public is all over Alabama and really is giving the Utes no shot. I would not be surprised to see an upset here as Bama might not be up for this game as most teams should be. This Alabama team was a few minutes away from playing in the Title Game. Look for Utah to make this a close game. Take the Utes.
College Football
Texas Tech -4.5 over Mississippi
Texas Tech obviously wanted to be in a bigger bowl game, but coach Leach will have his players ready to play. Mississippi plays great defense, but in a 60 minute game I do not see them hanging with Tech. The Red Raiders put up almost double the offense of Ole Miss and should get a big win in their home state today. Take Texas Tech.
East Carolina -3 over Kentucky
ECU was a fan favorite team this year when they jumped out of the gates early to beat West Virginia and VTech. Kentucky is just a 6-6 team who was lucky to get into a bowl game. These teams are pretty evenly matched so I will give the edge to ECU for having a better record this season. I am not a big fan of 6-6 teams making bowl games. Take ECU.
Utah +9.5 over Alabama
Utah is a really good football team with a lot of experience. Bama had a great season and was undefeated in the SEC until the title game against Florida. The betting public is all over Alabama and really is giving the Utes no shot. I would not be surprised to see an upset here as Bama might not be up for this game as most teams should be. This Alabama team was a few minutes away from playing in the Title Game. Look for Utah to make this a close game. Take the Utes.
