THE SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, AUGUST 14
NFL PRESEASON
St. Louis at N.Y. Jets
Rex Ryan makes his NFL head-coaching debut when he leads the Jets against the Rams and fellow rookie coach Steve Spagnuolo.
St. Louis QB Marc Bulger, who missed much of last year with an injury, will play the entire first quarter and possibly into the second along with the rest of the starters. Spagnuolo said he plans to use all four of his quarterbacks, including second-stringer Kyle Boller as well as rookie Keith Null and veteran Brock Berlin, who are competing for the No. 3 job.
Ryan said both Kellen Clemens and rookie Mark Sanchez will play with the first-string offense, with Clemens starting under center. However, Ryan added that rookie Erik Ainge will get the majority of snaps in the game, and Harvard rookie Chris Pizzotti will play at least a series as well.
The Rams split their four preseason games both SU and ATS in each of former coach Scott Linehan’s final two seasons at the helm. However, they have lost 12 of their last 14 exhibition roadies since 2002, going 4-10 ATS. St. Louis is also 4-8 ATS as an underdog over this stretch.
The Jets have went 3-1 in August last year, the fourth time in the last five summers they’ve achieved that record. New York has cashed at a 9-6-1 clip during this span, but is just 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) at home over the past two preseasons. Also, the Jets have failed to cover in three of their last four when laying more than three points in exhibition play.
New York spanked St. Louis 47-3 as a 9½-point home favorite last November, ending a seven-game SU and ATS losing skid to the Rams (all in the regular season) that dated to 1986.
The three battles between these teams this decade (all in the regular season) have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Minnesota at Indianapolis
The Colts take the field for the first time under new coach Jim Caldwell when they battle the Vikings at Lucas Oil Field.
After being spurned by veteran QB Brett Favre three weeks ago, Minnesota entered training camp with a quarterback battle between incumbent starter Tarvaris Jackson and veteran backup Sage Rosenfels. Because neither established himself as a clear-cut favorite to win the job, both are expected to see significant time under center tonight, though coach Brad Childress didn’t say who would be the starter. The third-string QB is second-year pro John David Booty.
Peyton Manning and the rest of the Colts’ starters are likely to play only a couple of series and will depart before the end of the first quarter, keeping with the Week 1 tradition of former coach Tony Dungy. Manning’s longtime backup, Jim Sorgi, is out with an injury, meaning rookie Curtis Painter “is going to get a pretty good amount of work,” Caldwell said.
The Vikings have been very mediocre in the preseason in Childress’s three years, going 5-6-1 SU and 7-6 ATS, including 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS last year. Minnesota is also 6-7-1 SU but 9-5 ATS on the highway since 2002. However, the Vikings have lost three straight preseason openers under Childress, all as a favorite.
The Colts were abysmal in August over Dungy’s final four years, going 3-15 SU and 5-13 ATS, including 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS last year. During this four-year stretch, Indianapolis lost seven of eight preseason home games both SU and ATS, went 3-7 ATS as an underdog and lost all four preseason openers (1-3 ATS).
The host has won six of the last seven overall meetings between these teams (4-3 ATS), the lone exception come in Week 2 of the regular season last year when the Colts rallied for an 18-15 victory as a one-point road chalk.
The Vikings stayed under the total in their final two exhibition games last year, ending a 5-0 “over” run for the team. Also, Indy’s final three preseason contests in 2008 remained low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
Cincinnati at New Orleans
Two teams that failed to live up to expectations in 2008 hook up at the Superdome, as Drew Brees and the Saints entertain Carson Palmer and the Bengals.
Palmer, who missed the final 10 games of last year because of an elbow injury, is slated to play 12 to 15 snaps tonight. Coach Marvin Lewis said he’ll let the flow of the game determine how long the rest of the first team plays. Once Palmer departs, J.T. O’Sullivan will take over and play the rest of the first half, with Palmer’s brother, Jordan, leading the offense over the final two quarters.
The high-powered New Orleans’ offense will be on the field for about one quarter, though Brees is only expected to play two series before being replaced by veteran Mark Brunell. Coach Sean Payton said Brunell will work with both the first- and second-stringers and play into the third quarter, with former first-round pick Joey Harrington finishing the game.
The Bengals have been the picture of preseason mediocrity since Lewis took over in 2003, splitting their 24 games SU while going 13-11 ATS. However, Cincinnati is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a visitor the past three years (all as an underdog), winning both road contests last year.
Like Cincinnati, the Saints split their two exhibition games last year both SU and ATS and are 6-7 SU and ATS under Payton. However, New Orleans lost both of its contests in the Superdome last summer and are 3-11 SU and ATS in designated preseason home games since 2002 (1-5 SU and ATS under Payton). The Saints are also 3-10 ATS in their last 13 as an exhibition chalk (1-6 ATS in that role the last four years).
The Bengals have covered in three consecutive preseason openers (2-1 SU), edging Green Bay 20-17 as a three-point underdog in 2008. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 2-1 SU and ATS in Week 1 under Payton, including a 24-10 rout at Arizona as a 2½-point road pup last year.
These teams met in Week 3 last August, with New Orleans posting a 13-0 shutout win as a 2½-point road favorite.
The under is 8-3 in New Orleans’ last 11 preseason contests overall, including 4-1 in designated home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and UNDER
Denver at San Francisco
For the first time in 14 years, the Broncos take the field with a new head coach in charge, as Josh McDaniels guides his troops into San Francisco for a meeting with the 49ers and their first-year coach Mike Singletary.
McDaniels told reporters this week that he informed all of his players “to be ready to go for a long time” tonight, but wasn’t specific about actual playing time. QB Kyle Orton, who was acquired from Chicago for Jay Cutler, will get the start, while another newcomer, veteran Chris Simms, will be second under center. Rookie Tom Brandstater likely will finish up.
Shaun Hill, who is battling Alex Smith for San Francisco’s starting quarterback job, will begin this game under center, though Singletary said the competition remains wide open. Singletary added that the pace of the game will determine how long Hill plays and when Smith replaces him. Jamie Martin and Damon Huard are the other QBs on the 49ers’ roster. Starting RB Frank Gore will not suit up.
The Broncos split their four preseason games each of the last two years under former longtime coach Mike Shanahan, going 4-3-1 ATS. However, since 2002, Denver is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in preseason road games (3-3, 2-3-1 ATS last three years on the road).
The 49ers have dropped 13 of their last 20 exhibition outings, splitting the cash during this span, including going 2-2 ATS each of the last three years. On the bright side, San Francisco did win and cover six of its eight preseason home games under former coach Mike Nolan, though one of the losses came in the 2007 opener to the Broncos, who prevailed 17-13 as a three-point pup.
The over is 4-1 in Denver’s last five preseason road games (the lone “under” occurring in San Francisco in 2007). Also, the over is 5-2 in the 49ers’ last seven August contests (3-0 at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (65-49) at Texas (64-49)
The top two clubs in the hunt for the A.L. wild-card open up a three-game series at Rangers Ballpark, with Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.38) taking the ball for the home team against Red Sox lefty Jon Lester (9-7, 3.67).
The Red Sox failed to complete a four-game home sweep of Detroit on Thursday, getting blanked 2-0 by Justin Verlander. Boston has dropped six straight road games and also sports additional negative trends of 4-13 against winning teams, 1-10 on the road against winning squads and 2-5 versus the A.L. West.
Texas capped a 10-game road trip with Thursday’s 4-1 win at Cleveland. The Rangers started the trip with three straight losses in Oakland before winning five of the final seven games. They’re on positive runs of 7-0 against the A.L. East, 14-3 on Friday and 11-3 against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Texas has won 14 of its last 18 at home, including a three-game sweep of Boston from July 20-22, winning those three contests by a combined score of 13-6.
After losing nine of 10 to Boston last year, the Rangers have won five of six in this rivalry this season, with all five wins coming by multiple runs. In fact, the last 13 head-to-head battles have been multiple-run affairs.
Lester is coming off back-to-back brilliant starts in which he allowed one run each time out over a total of 13 innings (1.38 ERA), but he has nothing to show for it as the Red Sox lost road games to Tampa Bay (4-2) and the Yankees (5-2). Prior to that, Boston had been on a 6-1 roll behind Lester, and it is still 49-24 in his last 73 starts. The lefty has registered a quality start eight times in his last nine trips to the hill.
The Red Sox have split Lester’s 12 road starts in 2009, with the Washington native going 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA. He’s 2-0 with a 3.33 ERA in four starts against the Rangers (all at home), including an 8-1 rout on June 6 when he twirled a complete-game two-hitter, striking out 11, for Boston’s only win against Texas this season.
Millwood returned to the rotation on Saturday for the first time since July 26 and pitched well against the hot-hitting Angels, giving up two runs on nine hits in six innings, but it wasn’t enough as Texas lost 3-2 on the road. Not including the July 26 outing at Kansas City when he was pulled because of injury after two scoreless innings, Millwood has given up two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 11 starts.
With Millwood pitching, the Rangers are on runs of 21-7 at home, 8-1 in series openers and 4-0 against the A.L. East. This year, he’s 7-1 with a 2.53 ERA at Rangers Ballpark and 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two games (one home, one road) against the Red Sox. For his career, Millwood is 4-1 with a 6-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 14 starts versus Boston.
The under is 4-1-1 in Lester’s last six starts overall, 4-0 in his last four road outings, 4-0-1 in his last five on Friday and 10-1-3 in his last 14 when opening a series. Likewise, with Millwood pitching, the “under” is on runs of 23-6-2 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 7-0 against the A.L. East, 6-2 on Friday and 5-2 when he faces Boston.
The Red Sox have topped the total in 11 of 17 overall and four straight against A.L. West competition, but otherwise they’re on “under” streaks of 11-4 on the road, 23-8-6 on Friday and 11-4 when facing right-handed starters on the road. Texas also is on a bevy of “under” surges, including 43-15-2 overall, 37-14-2 at home, 17-5-1 against the A.L. East, 8-1 in series openers, 37-15-2 against southpaw starters and 37-14-2 when facing teams with a winning record.
Finally, the last seven Red Sox-Rangers clashes – including the last four in Texas – have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER
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