Jeff Benton Friday's 20 Dime MLB Totals Winner ... 20 DIME: Marlins-Dodgers UNDER the total
NOTE: Josh Johnson (Florida) and Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles) MUST start this game, or this is a "no play"!
Marlins-Dodgers UNDER
I know this series between the Dodgers and Marlins features two of the best hitters in baseball, both with the surname Ramirez (Manny for L.A.; Hanley for Florida). I also understand that runs generally come in bunches when these teams get together ? they?ve combined for nine runs or more in 10 of the last 13 meetings, including all three in mid-May in Miami.
That said, this pitching matchup of Marlins ace Josh Johnson (8-2, 2.74 ERA) and Dodgers phenom Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 2.95 ERA) has 2-1 final written ALL over it!
Let?s start with Johnson. The hard-throwing right-hander has given up three runs or fewer in 16 consecutive starts ? a franchise record ? and 18 of his 19 outings this season, including eight straight on the road. Taking it a step further, Johnson has allowed two earned runs or fewer 12 times. Not counting his last start, which was called because of rain after two scoreless innings versus Philadelphia, Johnson has pitched at least six innings in 17 of his 19 outings this season, and he?s gone at least into the seventh inning on 14 occasions.
Johnson is barely giving up a baserunner per inning this year (1.13 WHIP), and over 128 total innings pitched, he?s got a 109-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he?s yielded just seven gopher balls all year, including three in his last 10 starts.
Suffice to say, Johnson?s a stud. But as impressive as his numbers have been all season, they pale in comparison to what Kershaw has done over the past 5? weeks. Starting with a game against Oakland on June 16, the southpaw has made seven starts and gone 5-0 with a 0.63 ERA ? yes, that?s accurate: a 0.63 ERA. He?s allowed just three runs 21 hits in those seven starts covering a total of 42 2/3 innings, and in his last four starts at home, Kershaw has given up two runs (all in one start against the Mariners) on 12 hits in 23 2/3 innings.
For the season, Kershaw has a 1.62 ERA in 10 starts at Dodger Stadium, and he?s given up just one home run in 55 2/3 innings at home. In fact, nobody has taken Kershaw deep since May 27 at Coors Field ? a string of nine consecutive outings! Oh, and 10 days before yielding that home run in Colorado, Kershaw was in South Beach shutting down these Marlins, allowing just one run on one hit with nine strikeouts in seven innings.
Tonight, Kershaw faces a Marlins offense that has struggled all year against left-handed pitching, batting .247 overall, .243 on the road and .211 over the past 10 games. Meanwhile, Johnson is facing a potent Dodger lineup to be sure, but it?s one that hits 40 points better at home against left-handed pitching (.294) than right-handed pitching (.259).
Finally, because I don?t think either Kershaw or Johnson will go the distance tonight, I?m obligated to bring up the relief pitching. First off, both teams were idle Thursday, meaning all hands (er, arms) are on deck for this contests, including both closers. Secondly, these are two of the best bullpens in baseball, with Florida?s relievers posting a 3.75 ERA and the Dodgers? bully registering a scant 2.19 ERA. On the road, the Marlins? bullpen ERA drops to 2.09 (the Dodgers? to 2.59). And over the last 10 games, Florida?s relievers have a 1.46 ERA compared with 3.11 for L.A.
The Marlins enter this contest on ?under? streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 7-1-1 against left-handed starters and 17-5-2 on the road against southpaw starters. Similarly, the ?under? is 8-3-1 in the Dodgers? last 12 home games, 5-2 in Kershaw?s last seven home starts and 8-3 when Kershaw pitches in a game with the total at 8? or lower. This is the lowest total on the board tonight for a reason, folks ? because both starters are outstanding and both bullpens are rock-solid. Play this UNDER the posted number (but again, be sure to shop around for 7? if you can find it! Don?t play this game at 7 unless you absolutely have to!).
