Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends
*200 Kansas City Royals -116
The Reds are 8-22 SU since 2004 season on the road when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series.
The Reds are 8-23 SU since 2004 season as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series
*300 Cleveland Indians -115
Loads of trends pointing to a Tribe win tonight. Here are a few.
The Cardinals are 5-17 since May 05, 2004 as a dog after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite .
The Cardinals are 5-15 SU since 2005 Season on the road after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks.
Other trends totaling 41-12 SU in favor of the Indians winning.
*200 Kansas City Royals -116
The Reds are 8-22 SU since 2004 season on the road when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series.
The Reds are 8-23 SU since 2004 season as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series
*300 Cleveland Indians -115
Loads of trends pointing to a Tribe win tonight. Here are a few.
The Cardinals are 5-17 since May 05, 2004 as a dog after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite .
The Cardinals are 5-15 SU since 2005 Season on the road after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks.
Other trends totaling 41-12 SU in favor of the Indians winning.
WeCoverSpreads
Tigers -127
The Pirates have been a bankroll burner going 16-39 in their last 55 interleague games. Tonight they get to face rookie Rick Porcello who has been pitching like a veteran. He has a 6-4 record with a 3.98 ERA this season. His last two starts he gave up seven earned runs against two upper tier American League offenses of the Red Sox and Angels. He now gets to bounce back against the lower class Pittsburgh offense. In his interleague debut vs.Colorado he dominated allowing just 1 earned run in six innings on the hill in the victory earlier this year. The Tigers are 42-11 in their last 53 interleague games as a favorite.
They should have no problem hitting Ian Snell tonight. The Pirates are just 1-7 in Snells last eight interleague starts. Snell is just 1-6 on the season with a 5.54 ERA and a shaky 45 to 36 strike out to walk ratio. Snell has given up 22 hits and 14 earned runs in his last 17 innings on the mound. Snell has also lost 15 of his last 18 home starts as dog. We have no problem laying the short chalk tonight with an above .500 American League squad vs. the 28-32 Pirates
Tigers -127
The Pirates have been a bankroll burner going 16-39 in their last 55 interleague games. Tonight they get to face rookie Rick Porcello who has been pitching like a veteran. He has a 6-4 record with a 3.98 ERA this season. His last two starts he gave up seven earned runs against two upper tier American League offenses of the Red Sox and Angels. He now gets to bounce back against the lower class Pittsburgh offense. In his interleague debut vs.Colorado he dominated allowing just 1 earned run in six innings on the hill in the victory earlier this year. The Tigers are 42-11 in their last 53 interleague games as a favorite.
They should have no problem hitting Ian Snell tonight. The Pirates are just 1-7 in Snells last eight interleague starts. Snell is just 1-6 on the season with a 5.54 ERA and a shaky 45 to 36 strike out to walk ratio. Snell has given up 22 hits and 14 earned runs in his last 17 innings on the mound. Snell has also lost 15 of his last 18 home starts as dog. We have no problem laying the short chalk tonight with an above .500 American League squad vs. the 28-32 Pirates
Randall the Handle
Boston –1½ +1.32 over PHILADELPHIA
This is about the worst possible pitching match-up for the Phillies. This is like comparing the speed of Jose Reyes to Brad Penny. This is like comparing Charlize Theron to Rosie O’Donnell. Jon Lester is firing nothing but BB’s these days. In fact, there is not a pitcher in the league that looks sharper or has more confidence right now than Lester, period. He’s been virtually un-hittable in two straight games and is hitting every spot he wants with relative ease. The Red Sox are feeling great after a sweep of the hated Yankees and they’ll come in here feeling even better with Lester on the mound. The Phillies are just 12-14 at home and with Joe Blanton on the hill the chances of being 12-15 are great. Pay no attention to Blanton’s impressive numbers of his last three games, as he faced the Marlins followed by games in San Diego and Los Angeles. The fact that he’s had three good games in a row makes him even less appealing, especially at home where he’s 1-2 with a 6.73 ERA and a .311 BAA. Blanton has average stuff at best and is one of the more hittable pitchers in the business. The AL vs NL angle comes into play, as does the huge gap in talent between Lester and Blanton. Red Sox should absolutely crush Blanton and cruise to an easy win. Play: Boston –1½ +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND -½ +1.12 over St. Louis (1st 5 innings)
Joel Pineiro throws strikes but that’s about all he does. He puts the ball in play, rarely striking out anyone and with the way the Tribe are seeing the ball these days they should get to him early and often. Pineiro has thrown 34.2 innings on the road, allowing 48 hits for a BAA of .338. His road ERA is 5.45 and that’s after pitching at Arizona, Atlanta, Washington, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and San Fran, arguably six of the weakest offensive teams in the league. The Indians had a tough game last night but ended up beating the Royals with Greinke on the mound and that has to feel pretty good. The Indians have now won two series in a row and four of six and they’ve scored six runs or more in four of its last eight. David Huff does not have good numbers at all but numbers can be misleading especially when you consider he’s only pitched 20 innings thus far. He was rocked in his first two starts and his ERA was 17.55 at that point. He has since lowered it to 8.71 and in his only home start he went four innings against the Rays and didn’t allow a single run. He was also effective in his last start at Chicago, allowing four hits and three runs in five full innings. I’ve watched him pitch twice already and I like his stuff. He definitely has upside. As a minor-leaguer his 2.52 ERA led all Indians Minor Leaguers and 143 strikeouts ranked second. Following an exceptional season in ‘08, Huff was selected as the Bob Feller Award winner as the Indians' top Minor League pitcher. This pick is based more on going against Pineiro and therefore I’ll play it in five innings. Play: Cleveland -½ +1.12 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Detroit –1½ +1.26 over PITTSBURGH
It’s almost like the Pirates know they’re going to lose. They’ve won just 16 of its last 55 inter-league games and Ian Snell is 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA in his last three inter-league games. In fact, Snell hasn’t won a game in about eight weeks. Since defeating Atlanta on April 18, Snell has gone 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in his last nine starts. The Pirates are about to find out that the Tigers aren’t the weak-hitting Braves or Astros. Offensively, the Tigers have a huge edge here and that’s all there is to it. These strong AL teams almost always beat up on weak NL teams and this one shouldn’t be any different. This isn’t the only Pittsburgh/Detroit match-up of the night and has far less interest in Steel Town.
Play: Detroit –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Put this up Due to 9 Runs Over / Under
Boston –1½ +1.32 over PHILADELPHIA
This is about the worst possible pitching match-up for the Phillies. This is like comparing the speed of Jose Reyes to Brad Penny. This is like comparing Charlize Theron to Rosie O’Donnell. Jon Lester is firing nothing but BB’s these days. In fact, there is not a pitcher in the league that looks sharper or has more confidence right now than Lester, period. He’s been virtually un-hittable in two straight games and is hitting every spot he wants with relative ease. The Red Sox are feeling great after a sweep of the hated Yankees and they’ll come in here feeling even better with Lester on the mound. The Phillies are just 12-14 at home and with Joe Blanton on the hill the chances of being 12-15 are great. Pay no attention to Blanton’s impressive numbers of his last three games, as he faced the Marlins followed by games in San Diego and Los Angeles. The fact that he’s had three good games in a row makes him even less appealing, especially at home where he’s 1-2 with a 6.73 ERA and a .311 BAA. Blanton has average stuff at best and is one of the more hittable pitchers in the business. The AL vs NL angle comes into play, as does the huge gap in talent between Lester and Blanton. Red Sox should absolutely crush Blanton and cruise to an easy win. Play: Boston –1½ +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND -½ +1.12 over St. Louis (1st 5 innings)
Joel Pineiro throws strikes but that’s about all he does. He puts the ball in play, rarely striking out anyone and with the way the Tribe are seeing the ball these days they should get to him early and often. Pineiro has thrown 34.2 innings on the road, allowing 48 hits for a BAA of .338. His road ERA is 5.45 and that’s after pitching at Arizona, Atlanta, Washington, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and San Fran, arguably six of the weakest offensive teams in the league. The Indians had a tough game last night but ended up beating the Royals with Greinke on the mound and that has to feel pretty good. The Indians have now won two series in a row and four of six and they’ve scored six runs or more in four of its last eight. David Huff does not have good numbers at all but numbers can be misleading especially when you consider he’s only pitched 20 innings thus far. He was rocked in his first two starts and his ERA was 17.55 at that point. He has since lowered it to 8.71 and in his only home start he went four innings against the Rays and didn’t allow a single run. He was also effective in his last start at Chicago, allowing four hits and three runs in five full innings. I’ve watched him pitch twice already and I like his stuff. He definitely has upside. As a minor-leaguer his 2.52 ERA led all Indians Minor Leaguers and 143 strikeouts ranked second. Following an exceptional season in ‘08, Huff was selected as the Bob Feller Award winner as the Indians' top Minor League pitcher. This pick is based more on going against Pineiro and therefore I’ll play it in five innings. Play: Cleveland -½ +1.12 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Detroit –1½ +1.26 over PITTSBURGH
It’s almost like the Pirates know they’re going to lose. They’ve won just 16 of its last 55 inter-league games and Ian Snell is 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA in his last three inter-league games. In fact, Snell hasn’t won a game in about eight weeks. Since defeating Atlanta on April 18, Snell has gone 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in his last nine starts. The Pirates are about to find out that the Tigers aren’t the weak-hitting Braves or Astros. Offensively, the Tigers have a huge edge here and that’s all there is to it. These strong AL teams almost always beat up on weak NL teams and this one shouldn’t be any different. This isn’t the only Pittsburgh/Detroit match-up of the night and has far less interest in Steel Town.
Play: Detroit –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Put this up Due to 9 Runs Over / Under
