Dr. Bob
2 Star Best Bet
**San Antonio (-4) over INDIANA
04:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 503
San Antonio should be focused for this game after losing consecutive games to the Hornets and Thunder and the Spurs apply to a solid 78-30-2 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation tonight. San Antonio is also 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after consecutive losses as long as they had at least 1 night off since their last game. Indiana, meanwhile, has won 4 of their last 5 games but the Pacers apply to a negative 30-77-2 ATS home letdown situation tonight. My ratings favor San Antonio by 4 points and I’ll take the Spurs in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
Friday NBA Opinions
Portland (-4 ½) over OKLAHOMA CITY
Oklahoma City’s home court magic is starting to wear off (3 straight home spread losses) and the Thunder apply to a negative 47-108-3 ATS letdown situation based on their upset win at San Antonio. Portland hasn’t played as well on the road as they have at home over the course of the season, but the Blazers have covered the spread in 4 consecutive road games and 7 of their last 8 games overall. I’ll lean with Portland at -5 or less and I’d take the Blazers in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
New Orleans (-5) over GOLDEN STATE
The Warriors were a pretty good team when Monta Ellis was playing alongside Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette, but they’ve struggled since Jackson shut himself down for the rest of the season recently. Golden State did manage to beat the Kings in overtime on Wednesday, but the Warriors are just 16-48-1 ATS following their last 65 victories and they apply to a negative 124-222-10 ATS letdown situation tonight. Unfortunately, my ratings only favor the Hornets by 4 points in this game and the line has gone up to -5, so I’ll just lean with New Orleans at -5 or less and I’d take the Hornets in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
Friday College Opinions
Oregon State at UTEP UNDER (134)
I have leaned with the Under in the first 2 games of this CBI Tournament Championship series and split those two opinions. Oregon State won the first game 75-69 as the total went well over the posted line of 131 points thanks to the teams combining for 51% shooting. That was not something that I expected to happen again and the under in game 2 worked thanks to the line going up to 134 points, as UTEP won 70-63. That game also produced a higher than expected offensive efficiency of 1.11 points per possession, but the pace (i.e. # of possessions per team) was lower than expected at 60. My math model projects 64.6 possessions per team at 0.99 points per possession combined, which would result in a predicted total of 128 points in regulation. The pace of the two games played in this series so far has actually been a bit slower, at 63.5 possessions per game, but the combined offensive efficiency of the two teams has been 1.09 points per possession, which is much higher than expected and is not likely to continue. The fact that the two games have averaged 138.5 points is just random variance, especially considering the pace of the two games is actually slower than expected. I expect the defense to tighten up in the final game of this series and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 133 points or higher based on the line value.
I’ll also lean with Oregon State at +8 or more since my math favors UTEP by just 7 points in this game.
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