Service Plays Championship Monday 4/4/16

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.
Do not post any copy written info from the following services.

***Please do not post Twitter plays or forum member plays in this thread.***

Advertise with the Rx - do not post
Al Mcmordie
Allan East *man
Doc's Sports Services
Jim Feist
Ocal Sports
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
Robert Ferringo
Sports Money Profit System
Strike Point Sports
Vegas Sports Informer
Vegas Winning Crew


Do not post write-ups
AJ Apollo
Alex Smart
@ntonwins
Apple Handicappers
ASA, ASA Inc’s or American Sports Analysts
ATS Consultants
ATSadv ice.com
Ben Lewis
Brandon Lang's Crew
Bruce Marshall
Chris Jordan's Crew
Dave Cokin
Dennis Hill
Dennis Macklin
Dr. Bob Sports
Dr. guru sports
EZ Winners
Fairway Jay
Fred Wallin
Gametimereport
Greg DiPalma
Hittingpaydirt
JB Sports
Jim Avery
Jim Kruger
Jorge Gonzalez
Ken Jenkins
Killersportslive
Larry Ness
Lenny Delgenio
LT Profits
Lucky Lester
Madduxsports
Marc Lawrence/Playbook
Matt Fargo
Mike Lineback
Mike Rose
Pacific (Pac Star) Sports
PayneInsider
Paul Stone
Peter Gold at VI
Pick Nation Crew
PlusLineSports
Pointwise Sports
PowerPlay Wins
Preferred Picks
Pregame
Pro Sports Info
Red Zone Sports
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
Rocky Atkinson
Ron Raymond
Ross Benjamin
Sal Bansa/sportspicks1019
Scott Spreitzer
Sixth Sense Sports
Sports Memo Crew
Steve Merril SportsAlatex Sports
Stevo Design Inc. All services
Ted Sevransky/Teddy Covers
Tennessee Valley Sports
THELOCKOFTHEDAY
The Prez
The Real Animal
Tony George
Tony Karpinski/3G-Sports
Tom Stryker
Trushel Sports Consulting
Vegasadvisor s.com
Vernon Croy
Winning Points/Sports Reporter
zen_gambler
-------
GL!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Essler
CBB Sides - Monday, Apr 4 2016 9:20PM
601 Villanova 3.0(-110) Greek
vs 602 North Carolina triple-dime bet

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

VEGAS SHARP
4 Units
601 Villanova +2.5 over UNC

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NEW LEGEND SPORTS

MLB

5 unit - Dodgers -1.5 Runs +105
5 unit - Blue Jays / Rays OVER 7.5 Runs
5 unit - White Sox 1st 5 innings -105
5 unit - Baltimore Orioles -120
5 unit - Houston Astros -125

College Hoops

5 unit - UNC -2.5

 

[818Dartman]

GoodFella | CBB Sides Mon, 04/04/16 - 9:20 PM

triple-dime bet ​

601 Villanova 3.0 (-110) Greek vs 602 North Carolina Analysis:

"CBB MAX BET" 3* on VILLANOVA +3

We will continue to ride this Nova club. They have been a cash cow for us ALL tournament. Simply no reason to not fire on them again here IMO. I have played a portion of my play on the $$line here as well. The bottom line for me here, is that I have this game lined pk' so VALUE for me catching a full possession with this VERY GOOD aÏll around Nova club. I am all over a very live dog with the VILLANOVA WILDCATS in the CBB Championship Game.​

 

[Lawfrankd]

Simon | CBB Sides - Monday, Apr 4 2016 9:20PM
602 North Carolina -2.5(-110) Pinnacle vs 601 Villanova double-dime bet

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB | VILLANOVA at N CAROLINA
Play Against - Any team (VILLANOVA) excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better
104-59 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.8% | 39.1 units )
18-13 this year. ( 58.1% | 3.7 units )

CBB | VILLANOVA at N CAROLINA
Play On - Neutral Court underdogs vs. the money line (VILLANOVA) good offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or less
72-88 since 1997. ( 45.0% | 42.5 units )
6-8 this year. ( 42.9% | 0.1 units )

CBB | VILLANOVA at N CAROLINA
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 very good shooting team - shooting >=48% on the season
92-47 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.2% | 40.3 units )
36-22 this year. ( 62.1% | 11.8 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yankees/Astros game has been postponed

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Los Angeles Kings + Vancouver Canucks OVER 5
(System Record: 69-5, won last game)
Overall Record: 69-77-22

Rest of the Plays
none

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Villanova +2.5 over North Carolina
(System Record: 71-4, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 71-83-3

Rest of the Plays
none

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Chicago Cubs -135 over Los Angeles Angels
(System Record: 1-0)
Overall Record: 1-0

Rest of the Plays
Los Angeles Dodgers + San Diego Padres OVER 5.5
Minnesota Twins + Baltimore Orioles OVER 8.5
Houston Astros -125 over New York Yankees

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Red Star + FC Paris UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in France
(System Record: 930-28, lost last game and a push)
Overall Record: 930-724-150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | SEATTLE at TEXAS
TEXAS is 52-40 (+25.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (4.5) , OPPONENT (4.4)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty was waiting on the Mets on Sunday and likes Villanova on Monday.

The deficit is 90 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

Hondo’s Day 2 two-do

That didn’t take long. Hondo came up a wee bit short with Harvey and the Metamucils on Sunday night, which put the Day 1 deficit at a crisp 58 reeses.

Monday: Mr. Aitch is sure as Scherzer that Max will get last season’s Busts of the Year off to a fast start — 20 units on the Nats. Also, 20 on Arrieta and the Small Bears to make life hell for the Angels.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

Monday MLB

(1st 5 innings)

2* UNDER 3 (-$120) SD/LAD

2* UNDER 3.5 (-$160) BOS/CLE

2* UNDER 3.5 (-$150) CWS/OAK

 

[sdf]

oskeim

4* Nova

i was all set to bet UNC...now I'm not sure :-(

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

baseball33 - 4.04.2016
USA: MLB
Cleveland Indians - Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Odd: 1,83

 

[ReasonableDoubt]

Essler: 1-1 = - 0.2

*2 Tex ml
*2 mil +1.5
*1 tampa
*1 Tampa / Toronto over 7.5

 

[Player101]

Dr. Bob Analysis

[h=3]North Carolina (-2 ½) vs Villanova (149 ½ OU)[/h]06:20 PM Pacific, Rotation: 601
I wish I had a pick on this game but I have reason to take both sides. From a value perspective I like Villanova, as my ratings favor North Carolina by just ½ a point and the Wildcats have been the better team in this tournament. My variance adjusted game ratings rate Villanova 3.3 points higher using only NCAA tournament games and even using the median 3 games (throwing out the highest and lowest ratings for each team) still rates Villanova 2.8 points better. If I throw out the round 1 games against bad teams then things even up a bit, as those 4 games would rate Villanova only 0.6 points better after adjusting for variance. If you don’t adjust for variance then there is no doubt that the Wildcats have been much better but Villanova’s variance adjusted rating is 13.8 points lower than their average rating without an adjustment while North Carolina’s variance adjusted rating is only 2.9 points higher than their non-adjusted rating. Regardless of how I look at it I don’t have any ratings that would favor North Carolina by more than ½ a point in this game. The reason I’m not jumping on Villanova based on line value is because the Wildcats apply to a 1-19 ATS Final Four situation that’s 0-6 ATS in the championship game.

From a match up perspective this game will likely come down to whether Villanova can continue to knock down their 3-point shots at a pretty good rate. North Carolina does not defend the 3-point arc well (35.9% allowed this season) and Villanova has made an incredible 48.4% of their 3-point shots in this tournament after being a mediocre 3-point shooting team prior to the tournament. The Wildcats don’t need to continue to make that high a percentage, as I think they’re likely to win if they make 37% or more (they’re 35.9% for the season) as long as they don’t get dominated in the rebounding department, which is really North Carolina’s only advantage in this game. Villanova is not only knocking down their 3-point shots recently, and are expected to make a higher percentage than UNC in this game, but Nova is #2 in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage and #2 in free throw percentage and my model projects better shooting stats for the Wildcats in every category. Rebounding is where the Tarheels have an advantage and they need to create more shooting opportunities for themselves since they’re not expected to shoot a higher percentage than Villanova. North Carolina will almost surely have more rebounds in this game but they’ve got to be better than the +6 they’re projected to be to balance out Villanova’s shooting advantage. Of course, if Nova’s outside shots aren’t falling then that won’t matter, as North Carolina is likely to win if the Wildcats are 33% or lower in 3-point shooting. The NRG stadium affect (historically lower 3-point shooting percentages than expected) didn’t affect Villanova at all in their semifinal win over Oklahoma, as the Cats poured in 11 of 18 3-point shots. However, Villanova was the only one of the four teams to shoot a higher percentage from 3-point range than expected on Saturday so there is still reason to believe that the dome might have some negative affect on 3-point shooting (32.4% in 18 previous college games played here), which would help UNC a bit since the Tarheels don’t take as many 3-point shots. There were a lot of people that took the under in both games on Saturday because of the previous under trend at NRG but the line was adjusted for that and both games went over the total. My match up model projects 150 ½ total points and I still think there should be a slight adjustment lower for playing in a dome so the posted total of 149 ½ points is about right and I don’t see enough value to play the total either way. I wish I had something for you on this final game but I’ve had a solid NCAA Tournament (8-5-1 on Best Bets, despite starting 1-4, and 19-12 on the opinions) and I see no reason to force a bet that’s not there. I’ll pass on both the side and the total.