<o> </o>
Pointwise<o></o>
<o> </o>
NFL KEY RELEASES
<st1:State w:st="on">NEW YORK</st1:State> GIANTS over Green Bay RATING: 2 30-17
<st1:City w:st="on">CHICAGO</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City> RATING: 3 34-10
<st1:City w:st="on">SAN FRANCISCO</st1:City> over St Louis RATING: 4 23-24
<st1:State w:st="on">TENNESSEE</st1:State> over <st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> RATING: 4 22-24
<st1:City w:st="on">CINCINNATI</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Cleveland</st1:City></st1lace> RATING: 5 27-13<o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Power Sweep<o></o>
4 <st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City>
3 <st1:City w:st="on">Detroit</st1:City>
2 <st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City>
2 <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
The Gold Sheet<o></o>
<o> </o>
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 16
OVER THE TOTAL <st1:City w:st="on">PITTSBURGH</st1:City> 30 - <st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City> 17--<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> has been a high-pay "over" team at Heinz (14-1-1 last 16!), thanks partly to LY's Ben Roethlisberger interceptions (an NFL-leading 23 during injury-plagued season). He has focused on avoiding them (none in opener; but 4 TDP) since the start of training camp. The Polamalu-sparked zone-blitz defense should cause plenty of problems for the rebuilt Buffalo OL (at least three new starters TY).
(04-Pittsburgh +9' 29-24...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> 12-9)
<st1:City w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:City> 27 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">CLEVELAND</st1lace></st1:City> 13--Bengals' superior offense dominated in LY's meetings, with Cincy outscoring hated rival 64-17. Considering <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City>'s instability in OL and secondary, plus its dubious situation at QB, prefer to rely on Carson Palmer, "Ocho Cinco," and mates to extend their 15-4-1 spread mark last 20 as visitor. Is Jamal Lewis (35 YR in opener) really the answer for Browns at RB? Palmer, 49 of 72 vs. Cleveland LY, now further removed from Jan. 2006 knee injury.
(06-CINCY 34-Cle. 17...Ci.27-17 Ci.32/160 Cl.20/57 Ci.24/40/2/321 Cl.20/33/2/244 Ci.0 Cl.1)
(06-Cincy 30-CLE. 0...Ci.24-9 Ci.35/99 Cl.14/51 Ci.27/34/1/289 Cl.18/29/4/152 Ci.0 Cl.1)
(06-CINCINNATI -10 34-17, Cincinnati -3 30-0...SR: Cleveland 34-33)
Indianapolis 23 - TENNESSEE 20--Predictions of the demise of the 2007 Indy defense (5-6 new starters after free agency & injuries) have turned out to be premature. But upstart <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> and Vince Young gave Colts all they could handle LY, covering both meetings and winning the second. Can Titans pound out another 278 YR, as they did in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City>, vs. smallish Indy defense on grass? Last four in series "under."
(06-INDY 14-Tenn. 13...I.20-15 T.31/214 I.34/154 I.20/31/1/166 T.10/21/1/63 I.1 T.0)
(06-TENN. 20-Indy 17...T.21-20 T.35/219 I.29/100 I.21/28/2/351 T.15/25/2/163 T.0 I.0)
(06-INDIANAPOLIS -18 14-13, <st1:State w:st="on">TENNESSEE</st1:State> +7' 20-17...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City></st1lace> 14-11)
<st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City> 20 - <st1:City w:st="on">CAROLINA</st1:City> 16--Not sure that a win over the struggling Chiefs is a definitive "buy" signal for <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City></st1lace>. And we'll see if the supposedly-improved Texans OL can deal with Julius Peppers & friends. But there are enough other indicators that Texans might be a team to watch, especially with top '06 draftee Mario Williams 2 (sacks, fumble ret. TD vs. KC) making an impact, new QB Matt Schaub proving a quick study in Gary Kubiak's offense, and rookie WR find Jacoby Jones making it trickier for opposing defenses to double up on Andre Johnson.
(03-HOUSTON +6' 14-10...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City></st1lace> 1-0)
<st1:City w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:City> 23 - <st1:City w:st="on">ST. LOUIS</st1:City> 17--We're not going to blame <st1:City w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:City> low-keying it in preseason for their shoddy effort in opening loss vs. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City></st1lace>. But Steven Jackson (two fumbles, only 58 YR) looked as if he could have used a few more carries in August. And we're beginning to wonder what options def. coord. Jim Haslett might have with a DL that's counting on rookie NGs Carriker & Ryan to slow the run, but was trampled in opener. With presence of Frank Gore for S.F., QB Alex Smith now mature enough to take advantage.
(06-S.F. 20-St. L. 13...St.17-14 Sf.33/127 St.28/118 Sf.11/22/0/233 St.19/34/0/147 Sf.1 St.1)
(06-ST.L. 20-S.Frn. 17...St.23-20 Sf.31/171 St.29/140 St.24/37/1/209 Sf.13/25/2/148 St.0 Sf.1)
(06-SAN FRANCISCO +3 20-13, <st1:City w:st="on">ST. LOUIS</st1:City> -4' 20-17...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:City></st1lace> 59-54-2)
NY GIANTS 26 - Green Bay 14--During LY's rebuilding season, Packers were 5-2-1 as a road dog. But G.B.'s offense failed to impress in Week One, generating no TDs, even though the defense did perform well in holding Philly to 13. Giants offense owns the better weapons in this one, and their greater imperative to avoid 0-2 start should be another help. N.Y. has the pass rushers (check Umenyiora) that cause Bret Favre to hurry. He'll have to wait before passing John Elway on the QB win list.
(04-NY Giants +6' 14-7...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Green Bay</st1:City></st1lace> 28-22-2)
<st1:City w:st="on">JACKSONVILLE</st1:City> 24 - <st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City> 9--Tough start for the unintended new era in <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City></st1lace>. First, Vick-less Falcons had to deal with the stingy run defense of the Vikings. Now, they must contend with embarrassed <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City></st1lace> defense after it allowed 278 YR in opener. Good chance the <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City> defense wears down chasing QB Garrard, RB F. Taylor, and mini-bull RB/KR Maurice Jones-Drew (TDs in eight straight games to end LY). Jags 7-3 vs. spread last 10 at home.
(03-ATLANTA -3 21-14...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City></st1lace> 2-1)
<st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> 21 - <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">TAMPA</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">BAY</st1laceType></st1lace> 20--Buccaneers already beat up (check status of QB Garcia and RB C. Williams). But T.B. and Jon Gruden used to playing shorthanded after doing it for virtually all of LY! Vaunted Saints' offense failed to score a TD in opener at Indy, and Bucs familiar with the Drew Brees-Reggie Bush attack. It bodes poorly to start 0-2 in the NFL, so look for desperation fight from host.
(06-N. ORL. 24-T. Bay 21...T.18-15 T.33/187 N.25/143 T.20/31/0/219 N.21/33/0/171 N.0 T.1)
(06-N. Orl. 31-T. BAY 14...N.19-11 T.18/68 N.35/49 N.24/32/0/314 T.18/31/0/158 N.0 T.1)
(06-NEW <st1:City w:st="on">ORLEANS</st1:City> -6' 24-21, <st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> P 31-14...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City></st1lace> 19-11)
<st1:City w:st="on">DETROIT</st1:City> 23 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> 16--Minny has won last ten meetings in series!!! However, with inexperienced QB Tarvaris Jackson making just the second road start of his career (generated just 3 FDs and 104 total yards in LY's 9-7 foul-weather loss in G.B.; only TD scored via int.), must side with veteran Jon Kitna in this one. After all, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Detroit</st1lace></st1:City> prefers the pass on offense; Vikes excel vs. the run. Time for streak to end, despite new Minny RB Adrian Peterson (103 YR, 60 receiving in opener).
(06-MINN. 26-Det. 17...M.18-13 M.30/135 D.11/16 M.26/34/1/201 D.23/42/3/201 M.2 D.1)
(06-Minn. 30-DET. 20...M.21-20 M.44/172 D.10/M3 D.28/41/3/272 M.14/22/1/153 M.1 D.3)
(06-MINNESOTA -6' 26-17, <st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State> +1' 30-20...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State></st1lace> 60-29-2)
<st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> 20 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">MIAMI</st1lace></st1:City> 19--Cowboys put on an exciting offensive show with their 45-point outburst Sunday night vs. the Giants. But points won't come so easy vs. veteran <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> defense, fired up to avoid that debilitating 0-2 start (when chances of making the playoffs dip way down). With <st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> secondary vulnerable, look for Trent Green (24 of 38 in opener at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace>) to improve in Cam Cameron's official home debut.
(03-Miami +3 40-21...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City></st1lace> 7-4)
<st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> 24 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> 23--Regular-season home debut of Arizona HC Ken Whisenhunt. And <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> was 0-4 as a road favorite in LY's injury-plagued season. If Cardinals intend on being a factor in the NFC West race, beating the three-time defending division champs would go a long way. So, will "take" with <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State>'s young talent maturing, and will look "over" (5 of last 6 in series "over;" Seahawks 14-3-1 "over" on road.)
(06-SEA. 21-Ariz. 10...S.20-17 S.36/146 A.20/65 S.12/27/2/195 A.24/38/1/191 S.0 A.1)
(06-ARIZ. 27-Sea. 21...S.21-20 S.29/120 A.33/113 A.21/34/1/232 S.20/28/0/213 A.0 S.3)
(06-SEATTLE -7 21-10, <st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> +3 27-21...SR: EVEN 8-8)
<st1:City w:st="on">BALTIMORE</st1:City> 23 - NY Jets 10--<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:City></st1lace> defense tends to be even nastier at home (only 12 ppg LY), where Ravens are 17-8-1 last 26 when favored ("under" 11 of last 17 as host). Will N.Y.'s decision to dump starting G Pete Kendall come back to haunt the Jets (especially Chad Pennington) vs. the rugged Pryce-Gregg-Ngata Baltimore defensive front? Quite likely, especially if RB Thomas Jones (42 YR Game One) can't get going. If LT Jonathon Ogden (turf toe) ready to go, RB McGahee should enjoy nice home debut.
(05-BALTIMORE -7 13-3...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:City></st1lace> 4-1)
<st1:City w:st="on">DENVER</st1:City> 20 - <st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City> 14--Things might have gone better for <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City></st1lace> in its opener had Sebastian Janikowski not destroyed Raider momentum by going 0-3 on FGs. Still, <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City></st1lace> did appear to be out of LY's malaise, with Josh McCown operating Lane Kiffin's quick passing game well enough to hit 30 of 40 (but 2 ints., 1 lost fumble). They have a good chance to improve some in second game against hated rival. Nine of last 11 in series "under."
(06-DENVER 13-Oak. 3...D.15-14 D.31/144 O.30/85 O.13/26/1/159 D.11/18/0/91 D.1 O.1)
(06-Denver 17-OAK. 13...13-13 D.26/63 O.26/46 D.20/31/3/201 O.18/33/0/198 D.0 O.2)
(06-DENVER -14 13-3, Denver -9 17-13...SR: Oakland 54-39-2)
CHICAGO 29 - Kansas City 6--With K.C. QB & receivers far from scary, Larry Johnson (only 10 for 43 in opener) figures to find slow going vs. Brian Urlacher and the rugged Chicago front seven, especially with DT Tommie Harris looking 100% after LY's injury. Chiefs' shaky OTs will have their hands full vs. Bears' DE rotation of A. Ogunleye, A. Brown & Mark <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Anderson</st1lace></st1:City>. Bears (4 giveaways last week in S.D.) 2-0 vs. spread in regular season LY after a loss.
(03-KANSAS CITY -8' 31-3...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City></st1lace> 5-4)
*NEW ENGLAND 23 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Diego</st1lace></st1:City> 22--Chargers want revenge for their 4th-Q collapse vs. Pats in LY's AFC playoffs. Truly, there are easier teams to seek revenge against. However, S.D. has now won 11 straight in regular season, and Chargers 12-1-2 last 15 as a dog! Their only 3 losses LY (including playoffs) by 3 points each! Tom Brady (22 of 28), Randy Moss (9 for 183; hates "quiz shows"), and Wes Welker (6 recs.) went "nuts" in N.E. opener vs. Jets. But Chargers tougher than Jets; N.E. defense missing starters Seymour & <st1lace w:st="on">Harrison</st1lace>. TV--NBC
(06-N. Eng. 24-S. DIEGO 21...S.21-18 S.33/148 N.21/51 N.27/51/3/276 S.14/32/1/204 N.0 S.3)
(06-New England +4' 24-21 (AFC Playoffs)...SR: New England 18-14-2)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17
*PHILADELPHIA 19 - Washington 16--Donovan McNabb (15 of 33) was a little slow on the trigger in his return at G.B. Philly defense did not allow a TD, but Packers benefited enormously from two muffed punts. Much is being asked of young Wash. QB J. Campbell (only 8 career starts; 222 YP last week). But ground game (182 yds. vs. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City>) and defense giving him solid support. Redskins' conservative style has helped series go "under" 6 of last 7 meetings. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-PHIL. 27-Wash. 3...P.17-15 W.31/146 P.34/145 P.12/26/0/220 W.16/32/1/132 P.0 W.0)
(06-Phil. 21-WASH. 19...W.20-14 W.40/210 P.22/99 W.16/28/2/188 P.15/23/0/164 P.1 W.0)
(06-PHILADELPHIA -7 27-3, <st1:City w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:City> -1' 21-19...SR: <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> 75-64-5)
NFL KEY RELEASES
<st1:City w:st="on">HOUSTON</st1:City> by 4 over <st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City>
<st1:City w:st="on">CHICAGO</st1:City> by 23 over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City></st1lace>
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-Pittsburgh game<o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Dr. Bob
Rotation #225-226 UNDER (38 1/2) <st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City> at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City></st1lace> 2-Stars UNDER 38 or higher.
2-Star UNDER
**UNDER - DENVER (-9.5) 19 Oakland 12
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Oakland played pretty well offensively last week against a bad Lions’ defense, but the Raiders will have a tougher time against a Denver defense with two great cornerbacks. Daunte Culpepper takes over for an injured Josh McCown, but I rated those two quarterbacks the same heading into the season. <st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City>’s offense moved the ball well last week in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> while the Raiders’ defense was abused by the Lions. Those results may reverse this week as the Broncos have averaged 5.3 yards per play or less in 5 of Jay Cutler’s 6 career starts and Oakland is still a good defensive team regardless of what happened last week. In fact, Oakland’s bad defensive effort in week 1 sets them up in a solid 102-50-5 UNDER situation this week and the Raiders have still gone Under in 11 of their last 13 games. My ratings predict a total of 38 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll go UNDER 38 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet. I’ll also lean with Oakland plus the points, as my ratings favor Denver by just 7 ½ points and the Broncos are only 5-21 ATS under coach Shanahan when favored by more than 5 points in the regular season following a victory.
Strong Opinion
San Francisco 23 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The 49ers didn’t play well offensively last week, but their new defense looks very good. San Francisco held a decent Arizona attack to just 3.9 yards per play and only 3.4 yards per pass play as All-Pro cornerbacks Nate Clements and Walt Harris shut down the Cardinals receiving tandem while rookie LB Patrick Willis logged 11 tackles in his debut. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Francisco</st1lace></st1:City> rebuilt their defense in the off-season and it looks like a better than average unit. The Rams offense is in trouble without big LT Orlando Pace protecting Marc Bulger and Pace appears to be out for the season after getting hurt last week. Pace missed some time last season and Rams’ quarterback Marc Bulger went from averaging 6.9 yards per pass play in 8 games with Pace protecting his back to just 5.6 yppp in the final 8 games of the season without Pace. Bulger averaged just 3.8 yppp last week and he’ll have a tough time finding open receivers this week against one of the best sets of corners in the league. The Rams’ defense was horrible last week against both the run (4.9 ypr) and the pass (7.4 yppp), so expect the 49ers to look much better offensively this week. My ratings favor St. Louis by just 1 point and the Rams are just 6-15-1 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite of 3 points or more, including 1-4-1 ATS last season in coach Linehan’s first year. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Francisco</st1lace></st1:City> applies to a solid 52-20-1 statistical match- up indicator that is 10-1 ATS in week 2. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
ARIZONA 23 Seattle (-3.0) 21
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Arizona had a tough time throwing the ball against the 49ers but their defense looked very good and the offensive is likely to bounce back with a better effort. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> looked better than I expected against the Bucs, but my ratings only favor the Seahawks by 2 points in this game. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> applies to a solid 187-106-10 ATS statistical indicator and that is certainly enough to get me favoring the upset. I’ll consider <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d make <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion
Kansas City 14 CHICAGO (-12.0) 20
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Chicago is just 1-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points under coach Lovie Smith and the Bears apply to a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City>, meanwhile, applies to a solid 69-23-1 ATS situation. My ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> by 12 points, so the line is fair, but I’m going to resist making the Chiefs a Best Bet since the Bears are a perfect 5-0 ATS the week following a loss the last 2 seasons. That team trend is not nearly enough to cancel out the general situations so I’ll consider <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas</st1lace></st1:State> City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take KC in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
NY Jets 13 BALTIMORE (-10.0) 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Both teams will likely be without their starting quarterbacks, as Baltimore’s Steve McNair is expected to miss with groin injury while the Jets’ Chad Pennington is doubtful with an ankle sprain. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> has the more experienced backup in Kyle Boller and Boller looked very good off the bench last season (9.8 yards per pass play on 58 pass plays) and was improving as starter before McNair replaced him last season. Kellen Clemens will get the start for the Jets if Pennington doesn’t play and Clemens has had no success in very limited action in his career. However, Clemens looked good in the preseason and many think he could be an improvement over Pennington (I’ll reserve judgment). <st1:State w:st="on">New York</st1:State> applies to a very strong 63-10 ATS bounce back situation and the line appears to be fair (my ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> by 10 ½ points). The Ravens, meanwhile, qualify in a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation but I’m not going to make the Jets a Best Bet since <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> is 33-14-2 ATS as a home favorite under Brian Billick, including 19-4-1 ATS hosting non-division teams. The team trend is not as strong as the general situations favoring <st1:City w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:City> so I will consider <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New York</st1lace></st1:State> a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - JACKSONVILLE (-10.0) 21 Atlanta 7
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The Falcons managed just 4.0 yards per play and 3 points in their first regular season game with Michael Vick and today they face a Jaguars’ team that will be fired up defensively after allowing 284 rushing yards to the Titans last week. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City> is traditionally one of the best teams in the league at defending the run and their defense allowed just 13 points despite the uncharacteristically poor run defense. Teams that score 7 points or less in their opener are not good bets in game 2, especially when facing teams that allowed 13 points or less in week 1 (6-21 ATS). My ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City> by 13 points with a total of 36 points. I mention the projected points based on my ratings because this game applies to a 102-50-5 ATS early season UNDER angle. The total is only 34 ½ points, so some of the value of that angle is lost due to negative line value. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 34 points or higher.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - Dallas (-3.5) 19 MIAMI 16
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Cowboys coach Wade Wilson can’t be too excited about how his defense performed in last week’s 45-35 win over the Giants, so I expect a better effort from that unit this week. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> always has a solid defense and they tend to play their best at home. In fact, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> is 57-34 UNDER at home since 1996, including 6-2 UNDER last season and 24-8 UNDER when the total is 40 points or higher. This game also applies to a solid 102-50-5 UNDER angle. Unfortunately my math projects a total of 42 points (and favors <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> by 3 points) so I’ll resist playing the UNDER as a Best Bet at the current line of 40 ½ points. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher and I’d make the UNDER a 2-Star Best Bet at 42 points or higher.<o></o>
<o> </o>
[FONT="]<o> </o>[/FONT]
Marc Lawrence Playbook<o></o>
4<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET <st1:City w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">ST LOUIS</st1lace></st1:City> by 7 <o></o>
Niners have skipped town with the money after their last three
trips to the Edward Jones Dome and the series dog stands a
proud 6-1 ATS. San Fran head man Dick Nolan is also a perfect 5-0
ATS as a division dog. The home team will have to fi ght through
an ugly 3-17 spread history when playing off a SU favorite loss
(if under .500) against an opponent with revenge. Lambs are a
meek 10-52 ATS when the defense allows 28 or more points and
the San Francisco offense looks capable of hitting that mark.
Clincher is that Rams' QB Marc Bulger is the answer to this week's
TRIVIA TEASER (page 2). Niners strike gold in the <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Missouri</st1lace></st1:State> hills.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">PITTSBURGH</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City></st1lace> by 7
New Steeler coach Mike Tomlin’s debut went pretty much as planned.
The re-tooled <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> defense battered and bullied the Browns’
offense at will and Big Ben Roethlisberger fi red four TD passes to
lead the 34-7 rout. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City></st1lace> may not go so quietly: they own a 14-2
ATS record in Game Two and coach Dick Jauron is an amazing 15-1
ATS off a SU loss when taking on a non-AFC East foe off a SU win.
Steelers have buffaloed the Bills at this site, covering 4 consecutive
contests, but will be carrying a few too many points today.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">CLEVELAND</st1lace></st1:City> by 3
The Browns couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start. Five turnovers
and the inability to contain <st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City>’s savage pass rush buried
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City>. Things won’t get any easier in the Dawg Pound against
the hated Bengals who have cashed in 4 of the past 5 meetings.
Cleveland’s Romeo Crennel is 6-1 ATS as a dog off a division game
but that’s a lone bright spot in an ATS black hole – that and the fact
that home dogs off a blowout home loss of 24 or more points are
reliable moneymakers. Romeo, Romeo, where for art thou, Romeo?<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> over <st1:State w:st="on">TENNESSEE</st1:State> by 4
Titans buried a lot of handicappers by whipping <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City></st1lace> last
week and Jeff Fisher’s crew is more than capable of springing the
upset here. <st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State> came within two points of beating the Colts in
<st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> (as a +18 dog!) and won outright in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Nashville</st1lace></st1:City> by a 20-17
fi nal. Our AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) lines up squarely against the
defending Super Bowl champs, adding more weight to the Titans’ 4-
1 ATS mark as home dogs in 2006. We’re not all that enamored with
the Titans but their numbers are just too good to ignore.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">CAROLINA</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Houston</st1lace></st1:City> by 6
Panthers improved on their NFL best 16-2-1 ATS record as underdogs
by whipping the Rams but now change sides of the pointspread
fence. That hasn’t been a problem for this franchise as they’ve logged
a stunning 78-9 ATS mark when they win SU, including 39-5 if playing
at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Charlotte</st1lace></st1:City>. That meshes with the fact that SU losers in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Houston</st1lace></st1:City>
games are a woeful 1-15 versus the number. The Texans are a team
on the rise, coached by one of the league’s brightest in Gary Kubiak,
but until they improve their 1-9 ATS record as non-conference dogs
of 3 or more points, we’ll go with the proven commodity.<o></o>
<o> </o>
NY GIANTS over <st1:City w:st="on">Green Bay</st1:City> by 8
Giants fell behind early at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> and never could catch up. The New
Yorkers get a shot at redemption against <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Green Bay</st1lace></st1:City> and considering
the Packers don’t cover when the lose SU (6-72 ATS), this looks a surefi
re tonic. Still, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Green Bay</st1lace></st1:City>’s win over Philly was more a result of Eagle
penalties and miscues than a cohesive effort by the Packers (won the
game but lost the stats). And with Coughlin an astonishing 20-3 ATS
versus an opponent off a SU underdog win, the Giants will go all
out to avoid a 0-2 start. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Check</st1:City> <st1:State w:st="on">NY</st1:State></st1lace> QB Eli Manning’s status (bruised
shoulder) before opening the wallet<o></o>
<o> </o>
3<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET <st1:City w:st="on">San Diego</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on">NEW ENGLAND</st1lace> by 7<o></o>
Roll the clock back to mid-January, if you will. The best team in
the NFL, the 14-2 Chargers, were hosting the Patriots with visions
of Super Bowl dancing through their heads. Three hours and
forty-fi ve minutes later, the dreams turned to nightmares when
<st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace> escaped with a 24-21 win. So long Marty, so long
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">South</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">Beach</st1laceType></st1lace>. Vindication comes today in Foxboro where <st1:City w:st="on">San
Diego</st1:City> catches the Pats nice-and-fat off a 24-point destruction
of division rival <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New York</st1lace></st1:State> last Sunday. We could look to Diego’s
7-0 ATS mark as a dog of 4 or more when taking on a more than
.600 opponent. Or <st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace>’s 1-7 ATS record in September
off a SU & ATS win over a division foe. Instead, we’ll look to the
better team in a desirable role. You should, too.
<st1:City w:st="on">San Diego</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on">NEW ENGLAND</st1lace> by 7<o></o>
5<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET <st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">DETROIT</st1lace></st1:City> by 1<o></o>
Hats off to both teams as each opened with impressive season
opening wins, and covers. While the Lions appear vastly
improved with Calvin Johnson in the starting lineup, we simply
can’t trust Rod Marinelli just yet. His 1-6 ATS mark in games off a
SU & ATS win is hard to swallow, especially when laying points to
a team they’ve lost 10 games in a row against. The Vikings were
one of two teams in the NFL that actually improved on both
offense and defense last season, yet declined both SU & ATS.
Teams like these tend to fl y under the radar in the early going.
With Adrian Peterson fl ying up and down the fi eld, our money
is on this dominating dog.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">PHILADELPHIA</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> by 10
Bummer. That’s the feeling the Eagles had departing <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Green Bay</st1lace></st1:City>
Sunday night. Costly turnovers and penalties did them in as they
now take on DIVISION LEADER <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> under the Monday Night
lights in a suddenly important showdown. Noting the Skins 4-9 ATS
log as road dogs on Mondays, and Philly’s 11-3 ATS mark as a Monday
night favorite, look for the SU winner in the 2nd Eagles game of the
season to improve to 16-1 ATS as Andy comes up dandy tonight.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">JACKSONVILLE</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City></st1lace> by 7
Hugely disappointing starts for both teams. The 7-point favorite
Jaguars saw Titan RB Chris Brown slash through their highly-touted
defense for 175 yards and Jacko was shut out in the second half
of a shocking 10-13 loss to <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State>. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City>’s fate was much less
of a surprise since the Falcons brought a new coaching staff and
a backup QB to the Metrodome. <st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City> rushed for just 96 yards
against <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> and the Falcs couldn’t dent the scoreboard until
the fourth quarter, a sobering debut for new coach Bobby Petrino.
Despite Jack’s killer 9-1 ATS mark at home versus non-division foes,
we simply can’t lineup with a prohibitive favorite that no-showed
last week in game they really wanted. Birds, or bust.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> over <st1laceName w:st="on">TAMPA</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">BAY</st1laceType> by 4
Saints highly-anticipated showdown with <st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> in the season
opener fell well short of expectations and they'll look to bounce
back against a Tampa Team that moved the ball against <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Seattle</st1:City></st1lace> but
scored just 6 points. The chances are good: New Orleans is a super
18-3 ATS lately against NFC South foes and coach Sean Payton lost
back-to-back games just once in his fi rst year at the helm. Bucs have
been nearly unbeatable as home dogs under Gruden (15-4 ATS) but
with QB Garcia dinged up and RB Cadillac Williams doubtful due to
injury, we’ll lean to the more polished Saints here.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on">MIAMI</st1:City> by 4
Not much to like about the Dolphins debut with the new Trent-Cam
last week at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace>. The Redskins clearly dominated in the stats,
winning the yardage 400-273. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> failed to surrender 400 yards to
ANY opponent last year, snapping a 26-game skein in the process.
More importantly, Cam Cameron’s offense is in the embryonic stage
and this is not the foe they need to be taking on at this early stage
of the campaign. The Cowboys 0-9 ATS mark as chalk in games after
scoring 35 or more points, and the Mammals 13-5 ATS mark as nondivision
home dogs, may help <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City></st1lace> get the money.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">Seattle</st1:City> over <st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> by 3
Seahawks defensive schemes held <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Tampa</st1:City></st1lace> in check last week as new
coordinator Jim Mora Jr. is already beginning to pay dividends.
Revenge from a six-point loss here late last year should fi nd them
fully focused. The problem, though, is head coach Mike Holmgren's
struggles as a road favorite in division play, going 11-17 ATS in his
NFL career (0-4 ATS last four). On the fl ip side, Zona makes their
home debut under new mentor Ken Whisenhunt. Let’s hope they
don’t perform for him like they have in the past at division home
games during September (2-11 ATS). We’ll watch from the sidelines.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">BALTIMORE</st1:City> over NY Jets by 7
Flyboys crashed and burned in their home opener against division
rival <st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace>. It marked the fi rst time a home dog had failed
to win or cover its season opener against a team that had booted
them from the playoffs the previous season. It’s back to the drawing
board for Eric Mangini’s pilots, and today’s enemy couldn’t be any
tougher. The Black Birds are 6-0 ATS in this series and 13-3 ATS when
favored at home in September. No boarding passes admitted here.
Ravens or pass.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">DENVER</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oakland</st1lace></st1:City> by 13
Like the Four Tops once said, “It’s the same old song” when these
two division foes lock horns. It’s been that way ever since Bronco boss
Mike Shanahan was dispatched by Al Davis. Since then, Shanahan is
19-5 SU & 15-9 ATS against the Black-Silver, including 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS
when playing off an ATS loss. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Denver</st1lace></st1:City> is also 11-1 ATS in Game Two
of the season off a season-opening victory. Even though the Broncos
failed to get the money in their frantic win at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> last week, they
outgained the Bills, 470-184. We like the sounds of Motown.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">CHICAGO</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City> by 8
Da Bears limp back to the <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Windy</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">City</st1laceType></st1lace> as the Super Bowl losers they
are – with a season opening loss. The task at hand is to not only
winning a game, but to also overcome a double-digit margin the
oddsmaker has bestowed upon them. We don’t think so. For openers,
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City></st1lace> is 1-10 ATS as favorites of 10 or more points in non-division
dukeouts. Granted, the Chiefs have that deer in the headlights look
about them now, but the fact of the matter is teams that went 0-4 in
the preseason, and dropped their season opener, are a sparkling 14-5
ATS as Game Two dogs. We’re going to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City> today[FONT="]<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT="]<o> </o>[/FONT]
[FONT="]<o> </o>[/FONT]
Robert Ferringo
NFL SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take #215 <st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> (-3.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Tampa</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">Bay</st1laceType></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month. I do endorse this play up to -4.0. It is pretty stable at -3.5 in Vegas but is -3.0 at a majority of the top nine online sportsbooks and that is our basis. Believe me, this will be a double-digit win so an extra half-point shouldn't factor in.
Since 1997, teams that started the year with two straight road games are 20-13 ATS (60.6) in Week 2. Favorites in that role (as in, favored in the second game) are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent). Those road teams are 13-6 ATS off a loss in Week 1, and 5-1 when instilled as a favorite after that loss. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New Orleans</st1lace></st1:City> is devalued after that undressing on the Thursday night opener, but they were actually winning that game early and were tied, with the ball, to start the second half. Their talent puts them in the top one-third of teams in this league while <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tampa</st1lace></st1:City> is still a bottom-third club. The <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tampa</st1lace></st1:City> offense can’t put the type of pressure on a team that the Colts can and I think that the Saints are just itching to show that their defense is actually better this season than last. Also, if Brian Kelly doesn’t play the Bucs are short one of their best corners. That’s not a place you want to be when Drew Brees comes to town. Sean Payton is 7-3 ATS on the road and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New Orleans</st1lace></st1:City> has covered four of five against the Bucs. Finally, the moneyline on this game is anywhere from 25 to 50 cents heavy, and that's a strong indicator.
4-Unit Play. Take #221 <st1:City w:st="on">Seattle</st1:City> (-2.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State></st1lace> (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
This line is baffling. Until the Cardinals actually win some games they don’t deserve the respect that they get from the public, who is in love with them as a perpetual “sleeper team”. They aren’t. The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS (25 percent) in September home games and 12-19 ATS in September divisional games. They are 0-4 ATS since 2003 in divisional home games in September. The Cardinals are 3-16 straight up and 2-10 ATS in home openers, they are coming off a short week, and they are facing a team with superior talent. <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> will start two rookie offensive linemen against a veteran <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> front seven. I simply don’t see how they will be able to withstand the pressure, and I don’t see them stopping an offense that is very familiar with their personnel.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 <st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City> at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Over the past two years the Steelers are an astounding 13-1-2 against the total when playing at home. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City>’s defense is decimated – I mean completely decimated – and will be without as many as five starters. The Steelers have been throwing the ball more with Bruce Arians and I see them completely devastating the Bills. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> is 6-2 ATS over the past five years with a line between 36.0 and 38.0. Further, the ‘over’ is 36-15-2 in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City>’s last 53 home games, 46-22-2 with them as a favorite, and 10-1-1 when they allow less than 15 points in the previous game. Buy onto 37 if you have to because it’s such a key number, but if the Bills can chip in 9-13 points this one won’t be in doubt at all.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 34.5 <st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City> at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City></st1lace> (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: I endorse this play at 35.0 because that merely brings the push into play.
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> went 9-1 against the number last year at home and is 9-3 in Soldier Field when the total is between 33.5 and 35.5. The ‘over’ is 10-2 in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City>’s last 12 home games, 16-6-1 in their last 23 overall, and 14-3-1 as a favorite. The Bears lost two starters on defense last week and the Chiefs will be without two of their better defenders (Jared Allen and Patrick Surtain). These two teams combined for six points last week so there’s a naturally overreaction toward the ‘under’. But there’s a system at work here that’s hit at nearly 73 percent ‘over’ for the past six years. Chicago’s first four home games last year saw an average of 45.5 combined points and four of the Bears’ last five home openers have gone ‘over’. Rex Grossman is notorious for this – answering critics with a 250-yard, 4 TD eruption when everyone is calling for his head.
3-Unit Play. Take #206 <st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State> (+7.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Two very good systems at work here. First, play on a home dog that won its last game outright vs. an opponent who was playing at home. This system hit at roughly 61 percent over the past 15 years. Next, play on a division home dog that won straight up on as an away dog the previous week. This system has hit at 66 percent over the past 15 years. I couldn’t have been more impressed with how physical <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> was last week and I think they can make the Colts uncomfortable with their style. Also, road teams favored by 7.5 or more were 38-63 ATS (37.6 percent) between 1997 and 2006.
2-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+7) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
If the Panthers are an automatic play as an underdog (20-3-1 ATS) then they are also an automatic play against as a favorite. The Jake Delhomme-John Fox combo is 9-17-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-7 ATS at home, and 3-12 ATS as a favorite between 4.0 and 7.0. Remember, the Panthers were on the verge of losing in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">St. Louis</st1lace></st1:City> before two Steven Jackson fumbles handed them 14 points. I don’t see Carolina running the ball they way they did against an awful Rams defense, and this is play blends two basic tenets that have been very successful recently – playing the underdogs (58 percent ATS in 2006) and playing the AFC vs. the NFC.
2-Unit Play. Take #232 <st1:City w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:City> (-6.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)
Andy Reid is 10-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite and Donovan McNabb is 16-7 ATS following a loss. The Eagles are 17-10 ATS playing at home as a favorite after a loss and - the coup de grace - they are 11-3 ATS as home chalk on Monday Night Football. Is this line about 1-3 points to much? Yes. But you can't argue with results. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> is 3-7 ATS on MNF and have a young quarterback making his first road start. In Philly. The 'Skins lost Jon Jansen and I think their offensive line will suffer, especially against the blitz-happy Eagles. Finally, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> is 10-5 ATS when scoring 21 or more points and 12-22 ATS when they don't. I don't see it happening for them this week.
BONUS SELECTION
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take <st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> (-1.5), <st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City> (-0.5), and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> (-0.5).
Note: This is a 3-team sweetheart teaser which just about all online books offer. However, since all customers that use "local guys" may not be able to play this game it's simply a bonus play. I initially liked all three teams to cover their normal lines, and favorites of 8.0 or higher in Week 2 went 5-1 last year. However, over the past 10 years faves of -8.0 or higher this early in the year are just 13-18 ATS (41.9 percent) and if you throw out last year they were just 8-17 ATS (32 percent). For this bet to lose, one of these three teams would have to lose outright, basically, and I simply do not see that happening. I see <st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> 34-10, <st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City> 24-13, and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> 38-9. It's 10-cent juice on this bet and I like it as an online bonus for those of you that like the action.<o></o>
Pointwise<o></o>
<o> </o>
NFL KEY RELEASES
<st1:State w:st="on">NEW YORK</st1:State> GIANTS over Green Bay RATING: 2 30-17
<st1:City w:st="on">CHICAGO</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City> RATING: 3 34-10
<st1:City w:st="on">SAN FRANCISCO</st1:City> over St Louis RATING: 4 23-24
<st1:State w:st="on">TENNESSEE</st1:State> over <st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> RATING: 4 22-24
<st1:City w:st="on">CINCINNATI</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Cleveland</st1:City></st1lace> RATING: 5 27-13<o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Power Sweep<o></o>
4 <st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City>
3 <st1:City w:st="on">Detroit</st1:City>
2 <st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City>
2 <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
The Gold Sheet<o></o>
<o> </o>
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 16
OVER THE TOTAL <st1:City w:st="on">PITTSBURGH</st1:City> 30 - <st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City> 17--<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> has been a high-pay "over" team at Heinz (14-1-1 last 16!), thanks partly to LY's Ben Roethlisberger interceptions (an NFL-leading 23 during injury-plagued season). He has focused on avoiding them (none in opener; but 4 TDP) since the start of training camp. The Polamalu-sparked zone-blitz defense should cause plenty of problems for the rebuilt Buffalo OL (at least three new starters TY).
(04-Pittsburgh +9' 29-24...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> 12-9)
<st1:City w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:City> 27 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">CLEVELAND</st1lace></st1:City> 13--Bengals' superior offense dominated in LY's meetings, with Cincy outscoring hated rival 64-17. Considering <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City>'s instability in OL and secondary, plus its dubious situation at QB, prefer to rely on Carson Palmer, "Ocho Cinco," and mates to extend their 15-4-1 spread mark last 20 as visitor. Is Jamal Lewis (35 YR in opener) really the answer for Browns at RB? Palmer, 49 of 72 vs. Cleveland LY, now further removed from Jan. 2006 knee injury.
(06-CINCY 34-Cle. 17...Ci.27-17 Ci.32/160 Cl.20/57 Ci.24/40/2/321 Cl.20/33/2/244 Ci.0 Cl.1)
(06-Cincy 30-CLE. 0...Ci.24-9 Ci.35/99 Cl.14/51 Ci.27/34/1/289 Cl.18/29/4/152 Ci.0 Cl.1)
(06-CINCINNATI -10 34-17, Cincinnati -3 30-0...SR: Cleveland 34-33)
Indianapolis 23 - TENNESSEE 20--Predictions of the demise of the 2007 Indy defense (5-6 new starters after free agency & injuries) have turned out to be premature. But upstart <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> and Vince Young gave Colts all they could handle LY, covering both meetings and winning the second. Can Titans pound out another 278 YR, as they did in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City>, vs. smallish Indy defense on grass? Last four in series "under."
(06-INDY 14-Tenn. 13...I.20-15 T.31/214 I.34/154 I.20/31/1/166 T.10/21/1/63 I.1 T.0)
(06-TENN. 20-Indy 17...T.21-20 T.35/219 I.29/100 I.21/28/2/351 T.15/25/2/163 T.0 I.0)
(06-INDIANAPOLIS -18 14-13, <st1:State w:st="on">TENNESSEE</st1:State> +7' 20-17...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City></st1lace> 14-11)
<st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City> 20 - <st1:City w:st="on">CAROLINA</st1:City> 16--Not sure that a win over the struggling Chiefs is a definitive "buy" signal for <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City></st1lace>. And we'll see if the supposedly-improved Texans OL can deal with Julius Peppers & friends. But there are enough other indicators that Texans might be a team to watch, especially with top '06 draftee Mario Williams 2 (sacks, fumble ret. TD vs. KC) making an impact, new QB Matt Schaub proving a quick study in Gary Kubiak's offense, and rookie WR find Jacoby Jones making it trickier for opposing defenses to double up on Andre Johnson.
(03-HOUSTON +6' 14-10...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City></st1lace> 1-0)
<st1:City w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:City> 23 - <st1:City w:st="on">ST. LOUIS</st1:City> 17--We're not going to blame <st1:City w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:City> low-keying it in preseason for their shoddy effort in opening loss vs. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City></st1lace>. But Steven Jackson (two fumbles, only 58 YR) looked as if he could have used a few more carries in August. And we're beginning to wonder what options def. coord. Jim Haslett might have with a DL that's counting on rookie NGs Carriker & Ryan to slow the run, but was trampled in opener. With presence of Frank Gore for S.F., QB Alex Smith now mature enough to take advantage.
(06-S.F. 20-St. L. 13...St.17-14 Sf.33/127 St.28/118 Sf.11/22/0/233 St.19/34/0/147 Sf.1 St.1)
(06-ST.L. 20-S.Frn. 17...St.23-20 Sf.31/171 St.29/140 St.24/37/1/209 Sf.13/25/2/148 St.0 Sf.1)
(06-SAN FRANCISCO +3 20-13, <st1:City w:st="on">ST. LOUIS</st1:City> -4' 20-17...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:City></st1lace> 59-54-2)
NY GIANTS 26 - Green Bay 14--During LY's rebuilding season, Packers were 5-2-1 as a road dog. But G.B.'s offense failed to impress in Week One, generating no TDs, even though the defense did perform well in holding Philly to 13. Giants offense owns the better weapons in this one, and their greater imperative to avoid 0-2 start should be another help. N.Y. has the pass rushers (check Umenyiora) that cause Bret Favre to hurry. He'll have to wait before passing John Elway on the QB win list.
(04-NY Giants +6' 14-7...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Green Bay</st1:City></st1lace> 28-22-2)
<st1:City w:st="on">JACKSONVILLE</st1:City> 24 - <st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City> 9--Tough start for the unintended new era in <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City></st1lace>. First, Vick-less Falcons had to deal with the stingy run defense of the Vikings. Now, they must contend with embarrassed <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City></st1lace> defense after it allowed 278 YR in opener. Good chance the <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City> defense wears down chasing QB Garrard, RB F. Taylor, and mini-bull RB/KR Maurice Jones-Drew (TDs in eight straight games to end LY). Jags 7-3 vs. spread last 10 at home.
(03-ATLANTA -3 21-14...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City></st1lace> 2-1)
<st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> 21 - <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">TAMPA</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">BAY</st1laceType></st1lace> 20--Buccaneers already beat up (check status of QB Garcia and RB C. Williams). But T.B. and Jon Gruden used to playing shorthanded after doing it for virtually all of LY! Vaunted Saints' offense failed to score a TD in opener at Indy, and Bucs familiar with the Drew Brees-Reggie Bush attack. It bodes poorly to start 0-2 in the NFL, so look for desperation fight from host.
(06-N. ORL. 24-T. Bay 21...T.18-15 T.33/187 N.25/143 T.20/31/0/219 N.21/33/0/171 N.0 T.1)
(06-N. Orl. 31-T. BAY 14...N.19-11 T.18/68 N.35/49 N.24/32/0/314 T.18/31/0/158 N.0 T.1)
(06-NEW <st1:City w:st="on">ORLEANS</st1:City> -6' 24-21, <st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> P 31-14...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City></st1lace> 19-11)
<st1:City w:st="on">DETROIT</st1:City> 23 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> 16--Minny has won last ten meetings in series!!! However, with inexperienced QB Tarvaris Jackson making just the second road start of his career (generated just 3 FDs and 104 total yards in LY's 9-7 foul-weather loss in G.B.; only TD scored via int.), must side with veteran Jon Kitna in this one. After all, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Detroit</st1lace></st1:City> prefers the pass on offense; Vikes excel vs. the run. Time for streak to end, despite new Minny RB Adrian Peterson (103 YR, 60 receiving in opener).
(06-MINN. 26-Det. 17...M.18-13 M.30/135 D.11/16 M.26/34/1/201 D.23/42/3/201 M.2 D.1)
(06-Minn. 30-DET. 20...M.21-20 M.44/172 D.10/M3 D.28/41/3/272 M.14/22/1/153 M.1 D.3)
(06-MINNESOTA -6' 26-17, <st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State> +1' 30-20...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State></st1lace> 60-29-2)
<st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> 20 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">MIAMI</st1lace></st1:City> 19--Cowboys put on an exciting offensive show with their 45-point outburst Sunday night vs. the Giants. But points won't come so easy vs. veteran <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> defense, fired up to avoid that debilitating 0-2 start (when chances of making the playoffs dip way down). With <st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> secondary vulnerable, look for Trent Green (24 of 38 in opener at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace>) to improve in Cam Cameron's official home debut.
(03-Miami +3 40-21...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City></st1lace> 7-4)
<st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> 24 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> 23--Regular-season home debut of Arizona HC Ken Whisenhunt. And <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> was 0-4 as a road favorite in LY's injury-plagued season. If Cardinals intend on being a factor in the NFC West race, beating the three-time defending division champs would go a long way. So, will "take" with <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State>'s young talent maturing, and will look "over" (5 of last 6 in series "over;" Seahawks 14-3-1 "over" on road.)
(06-SEA. 21-Ariz. 10...S.20-17 S.36/146 A.20/65 S.12/27/2/195 A.24/38/1/191 S.0 A.1)
(06-ARIZ. 27-Sea. 21...S.21-20 S.29/120 A.33/113 A.21/34/1/232 S.20/28/0/213 A.0 S.3)
(06-SEATTLE -7 21-10, <st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> +3 27-21...SR: EVEN 8-8)
<st1:City w:st="on">BALTIMORE</st1:City> 23 - NY Jets 10--<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:City></st1lace> defense tends to be even nastier at home (only 12 ppg LY), where Ravens are 17-8-1 last 26 when favored ("under" 11 of last 17 as host). Will N.Y.'s decision to dump starting G Pete Kendall come back to haunt the Jets (especially Chad Pennington) vs. the rugged Pryce-Gregg-Ngata Baltimore defensive front? Quite likely, especially if RB Thomas Jones (42 YR Game One) can't get going. If LT Jonathon Ogden (turf toe) ready to go, RB McGahee should enjoy nice home debut.
(05-BALTIMORE -7 13-3...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:City></st1lace> 4-1)
<st1:City w:st="on">DENVER</st1:City> 20 - <st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City> 14--Things might have gone better for <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City></st1lace> in its opener had Sebastian Janikowski not destroyed Raider momentum by going 0-3 on FGs. Still, <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City></st1lace> did appear to be out of LY's malaise, with Josh McCown operating Lane Kiffin's quick passing game well enough to hit 30 of 40 (but 2 ints., 1 lost fumble). They have a good chance to improve some in second game against hated rival. Nine of last 11 in series "under."
(06-DENVER 13-Oak. 3...D.15-14 D.31/144 O.30/85 O.13/26/1/159 D.11/18/0/91 D.1 O.1)
(06-Denver 17-OAK. 13...13-13 D.26/63 O.26/46 D.20/31/3/201 O.18/33/0/198 D.0 O.2)
(06-DENVER -14 13-3, Denver -9 17-13...SR: Oakland 54-39-2)
CHICAGO 29 - Kansas City 6--With K.C. QB & receivers far from scary, Larry Johnson (only 10 for 43 in opener) figures to find slow going vs. Brian Urlacher and the rugged Chicago front seven, especially with DT Tommie Harris looking 100% after LY's injury. Chiefs' shaky OTs will have their hands full vs. Bears' DE rotation of A. Ogunleye, A. Brown & Mark <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Anderson</st1lace></st1:City>. Bears (4 giveaways last week in S.D.) 2-0 vs. spread in regular season LY after a loss.
(03-KANSAS CITY -8' 31-3...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City></st1lace> 5-4)
*NEW ENGLAND 23 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Diego</st1lace></st1:City> 22--Chargers want revenge for their 4th-Q collapse vs. Pats in LY's AFC playoffs. Truly, there are easier teams to seek revenge against. However, S.D. has now won 11 straight in regular season, and Chargers 12-1-2 last 15 as a dog! Their only 3 losses LY (including playoffs) by 3 points each! Tom Brady (22 of 28), Randy Moss (9 for 183; hates "quiz shows"), and Wes Welker (6 recs.) went "nuts" in N.E. opener vs. Jets. But Chargers tougher than Jets; N.E. defense missing starters Seymour & <st1lace w:st="on">Harrison</st1lace>. TV--NBC
(06-N. Eng. 24-S. DIEGO 21...S.21-18 S.33/148 N.21/51 N.27/51/3/276 S.14/32/1/204 N.0 S.3)
(06-New England +4' 24-21 (AFC Playoffs)...SR: New England 18-14-2)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17
*PHILADELPHIA 19 - Washington 16--Donovan McNabb (15 of 33) was a little slow on the trigger in his return at G.B. Philly defense did not allow a TD, but Packers benefited enormously from two muffed punts. Much is being asked of young Wash. QB J. Campbell (only 8 career starts; 222 YP last week). But ground game (182 yds. vs. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City>) and defense giving him solid support. Redskins' conservative style has helped series go "under" 6 of last 7 meetings. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-PHIL. 27-Wash. 3...P.17-15 W.31/146 P.34/145 P.12/26/0/220 W.16/32/1/132 P.0 W.0)
(06-Phil. 21-WASH. 19...W.20-14 W.40/210 P.22/99 W.16/28/2/188 P.15/23/0/164 P.1 W.0)
(06-PHILADELPHIA -7 27-3, <st1:City w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:City> -1' 21-19...SR: <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> 75-64-5)
NFL KEY RELEASES
<st1:City w:st="on">HOUSTON</st1:City> by 4 over <st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City>
<st1:City w:st="on">CHICAGO</st1:City> by 23 over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City></st1lace>
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-Pittsburgh game<o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Dr. Bob
Rotation #225-226 UNDER (38 1/2) <st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City> at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City></st1lace> 2-Stars UNDER 38 or higher.
2-Star UNDER
**UNDER - DENVER (-9.5) 19 Oakland 12
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Oakland played pretty well offensively last week against a bad Lions’ defense, but the Raiders will have a tougher time against a Denver defense with two great cornerbacks. Daunte Culpepper takes over for an injured Josh McCown, but I rated those two quarterbacks the same heading into the season. <st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City>’s offense moved the ball well last week in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> while the Raiders’ defense was abused by the Lions. Those results may reverse this week as the Broncos have averaged 5.3 yards per play or less in 5 of Jay Cutler’s 6 career starts and Oakland is still a good defensive team regardless of what happened last week. In fact, Oakland’s bad defensive effort in week 1 sets them up in a solid 102-50-5 UNDER situation this week and the Raiders have still gone Under in 11 of their last 13 games. My ratings predict a total of 38 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll go UNDER 38 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet. I’ll also lean with Oakland plus the points, as my ratings favor Denver by just 7 ½ points and the Broncos are only 5-21 ATS under coach Shanahan when favored by more than 5 points in the regular season following a victory.
Strong Opinion
San Francisco 23 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The 49ers didn’t play well offensively last week, but their new defense looks very good. San Francisco held a decent Arizona attack to just 3.9 yards per play and only 3.4 yards per pass play as All-Pro cornerbacks Nate Clements and Walt Harris shut down the Cardinals receiving tandem while rookie LB Patrick Willis logged 11 tackles in his debut. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Francisco</st1lace></st1:City> rebuilt their defense in the off-season and it looks like a better than average unit. The Rams offense is in trouble without big LT Orlando Pace protecting Marc Bulger and Pace appears to be out for the season after getting hurt last week. Pace missed some time last season and Rams’ quarterback Marc Bulger went from averaging 6.9 yards per pass play in 8 games with Pace protecting his back to just 5.6 yppp in the final 8 games of the season without Pace. Bulger averaged just 3.8 yppp last week and he’ll have a tough time finding open receivers this week against one of the best sets of corners in the league. The Rams’ defense was horrible last week against both the run (4.9 ypr) and the pass (7.4 yppp), so expect the 49ers to look much better offensively this week. My ratings favor St. Louis by just 1 point and the Rams are just 6-15-1 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite of 3 points or more, including 1-4-1 ATS last season in coach Linehan’s first year. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Francisco</st1lace></st1:City> applies to a solid 52-20-1 statistical match- up indicator that is 10-1 ATS in week 2. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
ARIZONA 23 Seattle (-3.0) 21
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Arizona had a tough time throwing the ball against the 49ers but their defense looked very good and the offensive is likely to bounce back with a better effort. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> looked better than I expected against the Bucs, but my ratings only favor the Seahawks by 2 points in this game. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> applies to a solid 187-106-10 ATS statistical indicator and that is certainly enough to get me favoring the upset. I’ll consider <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d make <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion
Kansas City 14 CHICAGO (-12.0) 20
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Chicago is just 1-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points under coach Lovie Smith and the Bears apply to a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City>, meanwhile, applies to a solid 69-23-1 ATS situation. My ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> by 12 points, so the line is fair, but I’m going to resist making the Chiefs a Best Bet since the Bears are a perfect 5-0 ATS the week following a loss the last 2 seasons. That team trend is not nearly enough to cancel out the general situations so I’ll consider <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas</st1lace></st1:State> City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take KC in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
NY Jets 13 BALTIMORE (-10.0) 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Both teams will likely be without their starting quarterbacks, as Baltimore’s Steve McNair is expected to miss with groin injury while the Jets’ Chad Pennington is doubtful with an ankle sprain. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> has the more experienced backup in Kyle Boller and Boller looked very good off the bench last season (9.8 yards per pass play on 58 pass plays) and was improving as starter before McNair replaced him last season. Kellen Clemens will get the start for the Jets if Pennington doesn’t play and Clemens has had no success in very limited action in his career. However, Clemens looked good in the preseason and many think he could be an improvement over Pennington (I’ll reserve judgment). <st1:State w:st="on">New York</st1:State> applies to a very strong 63-10 ATS bounce back situation and the line appears to be fair (my ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> by 10 ½ points). The Ravens, meanwhile, qualify in a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation but I’m not going to make the Jets a Best Bet since <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> is 33-14-2 ATS as a home favorite under Brian Billick, including 19-4-1 ATS hosting non-division teams. The team trend is not as strong as the general situations favoring <st1:City w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:City> so I will consider <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New York</st1lace></st1:State> a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - JACKSONVILLE (-10.0) 21 Atlanta 7
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The Falcons managed just 4.0 yards per play and 3 points in their first regular season game with Michael Vick and today they face a Jaguars’ team that will be fired up defensively after allowing 284 rushing yards to the Titans last week. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City> is traditionally one of the best teams in the league at defending the run and their defense allowed just 13 points despite the uncharacteristically poor run defense. Teams that score 7 points or less in their opener are not good bets in game 2, especially when facing teams that allowed 13 points or less in week 1 (6-21 ATS). My ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City> by 13 points with a total of 36 points. I mention the projected points based on my ratings because this game applies to a 102-50-5 ATS early season UNDER angle. The total is only 34 ½ points, so some of the value of that angle is lost due to negative line value. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 34 points or higher.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - Dallas (-3.5) 19 MIAMI 16
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Cowboys coach Wade Wilson can’t be too excited about how his defense performed in last week’s 45-35 win over the Giants, so I expect a better effort from that unit this week. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> always has a solid defense and they tend to play their best at home. In fact, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> is 57-34 UNDER at home since 1996, including 6-2 UNDER last season and 24-8 UNDER when the total is 40 points or higher. This game also applies to a solid 102-50-5 UNDER angle. Unfortunately my math projects a total of 42 points (and favors <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> by 3 points) so I’ll resist playing the UNDER as a Best Bet at the current line of 40 ½ points. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher and I’d make the UNDER a 2-Star Best Bet at 42 points or higher.<o></o>
<o> </o>
[FONT="]<o> </o>[/FONT]
Marc Lawrence Playbook<o></o>
4<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET <st1:City w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">ST LOUIS</st1lace></st1:City> by 7 <o></o>
Niners have skipped town with the money after their last three
trips to the Edward Jones Dome and the series dog stands a
proud 6-1 ATS. San Fran head man Dick Nolan is also a perfect 5-0
ATS as a division dog. The home team will have to fi ght through
an ugly 3-17 spread history when playing off a SU favorite loss
(if under .500) against an opponent with revenge. Lambs are a
meek 10-52 ATS when the defense allows 28 or more points and
the San Francisco offense looks capable of hitting that mark.
Clincher is that Rams' QB Marc Bulger is the answer to this week's
TRIVIA TEASER (page 2). Niners strike gold in the <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Missouri</st1lace></st1:State> hills.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">PITTSBURGH</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City></st1lace> by 7
New Steeler coach Mike Tomlin’s debut went pretty much as planned.
The re-tooled <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> defense battered and bullied the Browns’
offense at will and Big Ben Roethlisberger fi red four TD passes to
lead the 34-7 rout. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City></st1lace> may not go so quietly: they own a 14-2
ATS record in Game Two and coach Dick Jauron is an amazing 15-1
ATS off a SU loss when taking on a non-AFC East foe off a SU win.
Steelers have buffaloed the Bills at this site, covering 4 consecutive
contests, but will be carrying a few too many points today.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">CLEVELAND</st1lace></st1:City> by 3
The Browns couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start. Five turnovers
and the inability to contain <st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City>’s savage pass rush buried
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City>. Things won’t get any easier in the Dawg Pound against
the hated Bengals who have cashed in 4 of the past 5 meetings.
Cleveland’s Romeo Crennel is 6-1 ATS as a dog off a division game
but that’s a lone bright spot in an ATS black hole – that and the fact
that home dogs off a blowout home loss of 24 or more points are
reliable moneymakers. Romeo, Romeo, where for art thou, Romeo?<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> over <st1:State w:st="on">TENNESSEE</st1:State> by 4
Titans buried a lot of handicappers by whipping <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City></st1lace> last
week and Jeff Fisher’s crew is more than capable of springing the
upset here. <st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State> came within two points of beating the Colts in
<st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> (as a +18 dog!) and won outright in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Nashville</st1lace></st1:City> by a 20-17
fi nal. Our AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) lines up squarely against the
defending Super Bowl champs, adding more weight to the Titans’ 4-
1 ATS mark as home dogs in 2006. We’re not all that enamored with
the Titans but their numbers are just too good to ignore.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">CAROLINA</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Houston</st1lace></st1:City> by 6
Panthers improved on their NFL best 16-2-1 ATS record as underdogs
by whipping the Rams but now change sides of the pointspread
fence. That hasn’t been a problem for this franchise as they’ve logged
a stunning 78-9 ATS mark when they win SU, including 39-5 if playing
at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Charlotte</st1lace></st1:City>. That meshes with the fact that SU losers in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Houston</st1lace></st1:City>
games are a woeful 1-15 versus the number. The Texans are a team
on the rise, coached by one of the league’s brightest in Gary Kubiak,
but until they improve their 1-9 ATS record as non-conference dogs
of 3 or more points, we’ll go with the proven commodity.<o></o>
<o> </o>
NY GIANTS over <st1:City w:st="on">Green Bay</st1:City> by 8
Giants fell behind early at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> and never could catch up. The New
Yorkers get a shot at redemption against <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Green Bay</st1lace></st1:City> and considering
the Packers don’t cover when the lose SU (6-72 ATS), this looks a surefi
re tonic. Still, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Green Bay</st1lace></st1:City>’s win over Philly was more a result of Eagle
penalties and miscues than a cohesive effort by the Packers (won the
game but lost the stats). And with Coughlin an astonishing 20-3 ATS
versus an opponent off a SU underdog win, the Giants will go all
out to avoid a 0-2 start. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Check</st1:City> <st1:State w:st="on">NY</st1:State></st1lace> QB Eli Manning’s status (bruised
shoulder) before opening the wallet<o></o>
<o> </o>
3<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET <st1:City w:st="on">San Diego</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on">NEW ENGLAND</st1lace> by 7<o></o>
Roll the clock back to mid-January, if you will. The best team in
the NFL, the 14-2 Chargers, were hosting the Patriots with visions
of Super Bowl dancing through their heads. Three hours and
forty-fi ve minutes later, the dreams turned to nightmares when
<st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace> escaped with a 24-21 win. So long Marty, so long
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">South</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">Beach</st1laceType></st1lace>. Vindication comes today in Foxboro where <st1:City w:st="on">San
Diego</st1:City> catches the Pats nice-and-fat off a 24-point destruction
of division rival <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New York</st1lace></st1:State> last Sunday. We could look to Diego’s
7-0 ATS mark as a dog of 4 or more when taking on a more than
.600 opponent. Or <st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace>’s 1-7 ATS record in September
off a SU & ATS win over a division foe. Instead, we’ll look to the
better team in a desirable role. You should, too.
<st1:City w:st="on">San Diego</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on">NEW ENGLAND</st1lace> by 7<o></o>
5<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET <st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">DETROIT</st1lace></st1:City> by 1<o></o>
Hats off to both teams as each opened with impressive season
opening wins, and covers. While the Lions appear vastly
improved with Calvin Johnson in the starting lineup, we simply
can’t trust Rod Marinelli just yet. His 1-6 ATS mark in games off a
SU & ATS win is hard to swallow, especially when laying points to
a team they’ve lost 10 games in a row against. The Vikings were
one of two teams in the NFL that actually improved on both
offense and defense last season, yet declined both SU & ATS.
Teams like these tend to fl y under the radar in the early going.
With Adrian Peterson fl ying up and down the fi eld, our money
is on this dominating dog.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">PHILADELPHIA</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> by 10
Bummer. That’s the feeling the Eagles had departing <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Green Bay</st1lace></st1:City>
Sunday night. Costly turnovers and penalties did them in as they
now take on DIVISION LEADER <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> under the Monday Night
lights in a suddenly important showdown. Noting the Skins 4-9 ATS
log as road dogs on Mondays, and Philly’s 11-3 ATS mark as a Monday
night favorite, look for the SU winner in the 2nd Eagles game of the
season to improve to 16-1 ATS as Andy comes up dandy tonight.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">JACKSONVILLE</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City></st1lace> by 7
Hugely disappointing starts for both teams. The 7-point favorite
Jaguars saw Titan RB Chris Brown slash through their highly-touted
defense for 175 yards and Jacko was shut out in the second half
of a shocking 10-13 loss to <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State>. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City>’s fate was much less
of a surprise since the Falcons brought a new coaching staff and
a backup QB to the Metrodome. <st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City> rushed for just 96 yards
against <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> and the Falcs couldn’t dent the scoreboard until
the fourth quarter, a sobering debut for new coach Bobby Petrino.
Despite Jack’s killer 9-1 ATS mark at home versus non-division foes,
we simply can’t lineup with a prohibitive favorite that no-showed
last week in game they really wanted. Birds, or bust.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> over <st1laceName w:st="on">TAMPA</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">BAY</st1laceType> by 4
Saints highly-anticipated showdown with <st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> in the season
opener fell well short of expectations and they'll look to bounce
back against a Tampa Team that moved the ball against <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Seattle</st1:City></st1lace> but
scored just 6 points. The chances are good: New Orleans is a super
18-3 ATS lately against NFC South foes and coach Sean Payton lost
back-to-back games just once in his fi rst year at the helm. Bucs have
been nearly unbeatable as home dogs under Gruden (15-4 ATS) but
with QB Garcia dinged up and RB Cadillac Williams doubtful due to
injury, we’ll lean to the more polished Saints here.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on">MIAMI</st1:City> by 4
Not much to like about the Dolphins debut with the new Trent-Cam
last week at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace>. The Redskins clearly dominated in the stats,
winning the yardage 400-273. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> failed to surrender 400 yards to
ANY opponent last year, snapping a 26-game skein in the process.
More importantly, Cam Cameron’s offense is in the embryonic stage
and this is not the foe they need to be taking on at this early stage
of the campaign. The Cowboys 0-9 ATS mark as chalk in games after
scoring 35 or more points, and the Mammals 13-5 ATS mark as nondivision
home dogs, may help <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City></st1lace> get the money.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">Seattle</st1:City> over <st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> by 3
Seahawks defensive schemes held <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Tampa</st1:City></st1lace> in check last week as new
coordinator Jim Mora Jr. is already beginning to pay dividends.
Revenge from a six-point loss here late last year should fi nd them
fully focused. The problem, though, is head coach Mike Holmgren's
struggles as a road favorite in division play, going 11-17 ATS in his
NFL career (0-4 ATS last four). On the fl ip side, Zona makes their
home debut under new mentor Ken Whisenhunt. Let’s hope they
don’t perform for him like they have in the past at division home
games during September (2-11 ATS). We’ll watch from the sidelines.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">BALTIMORE</st1:City> over NY Jets by 7
Flyboys crashed and burned in their home opener against division
rival <st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace>. It marked the fi rst time a home dog had failed
to win or cover its season opener against a team that had booted
them from the playoffs the previous season. It’s back to the drawing
board for Eric Mangini’s pilots, and today’s enemy couldn’t be any
tougher. The Black Birds are 6-0 ATS in this series and 13-3 ATS when
favored at home in September. No boarding passes admitted here.
Ravens or pass.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">DENVER</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oakland</st1lace></st1:City> by 13
Like the Four Tops once said, “It’s the same old song” when these
two division foes lock horns. It’s been that way ever since Bronco boss
Mike Shanahan was dispatched by Al Davis. Since then, Shanahan is
19-5 SU & 15-9 ATS against the Black-Silver, including 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS
when playing off an ATS loss. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Denver</st1lace></st1:City> is also 11-1 ATS in Game Two
of the season off a season-opening victory. Even though the Broncos
failed to get the money in their frantic win at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> last week, they
outgained the Bills, 470-184. We like the sounds of Motown.<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on">CHICAGO</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City> by 8
Da Bears limp back to the <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Windy</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">City</st1laceType></st1lace> as the Super Bowl losers they
are – with a season opening loss. The task at hand is to not only
winning a game, but to also overcome a double-digit margin the
oddsmaker has bestowed upon them. We don’t think so. For openers,
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City></st1lace> is 1-10 ATS as favorites of 10 or more points in non-division
dukeouts. Granted, the Chiefs have that deer in the headlights look
about them now, but the fact of the matter is teams that went 0-4 in
the preseason, and dropped their season opener, are a sparkling 14-5
ATS as Game Two dogs. We’re going to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City> today[FONT="]<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT="]<o> </o>[/FONT]
[FONT="]<o> </o>[/FONT]
Robert Ferringo
NFL SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take #215 <st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> (-3.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Tampa</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">Bay</st1laceType></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month. I do endorse this play up to -4.0. It is pretty stable at -3.5 in Vegas but is -3.0 at a majority of the top nine online sportsbooks and that is our basis. Believe me, this will be a double-digit win so an extra half-point shouldn't factor in.
Since 1997, teams that started the year with two straight road games are 20-13 ATS (60.6) in Week 2. Favorites in that role (as in, favored in the second game) are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent). Those road teams are 13-6 ATS off a loss in Week 1, and 5-1 when instilled as a favorite after that loss. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New Orleans</st1lace></st1:City> is devalued after that undressing on the Thursday night opener, but they were actually winning that game early and were tied, with the ball, to start the second half. Their talent puts them in the top one-third of teams in this league while <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tampa</st1lace></st1:City> is still a bottom-third club. The <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tampa</st1lace></st1:City> offense can’t put the type of pressure on a team that the Colts can and I think that the Saints are just itching to show that their defense is actually better this season than last. Also, if Brian Kelly doesn’t play the Bucs are short one of their best corners. That’s not a place you want to be when Drew Brees comes to town. Sean Payton is 7-3 ATS on the road and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New Orleans</st1lace></st1:City> has covered four of five against the Bucs. Finally, the moneyline on this game is anywhere from 25 to 50 cents heavy, and that's a strong indicator.
4-Unit Play. Take #221 <st1:City w:st="on">Seattle</st1:City> (-2.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State></st1lace> (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
This line is baffling. Until the Cardinals actually win some games they don’t deserve the respect that they get from the public, who is in love with them as a perpetual “sleeper team”. They aren’t. The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS (25 percent) in September home games and 12-19 ATS in September divisional games. They are 0-4 ATS since 2003 in divisional home games in September. The Cardinals are 3-16 straight up and 2-10 ATS in home openers, they are coming off a short week, and they are facing a team with superior talent. <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> will start two rookie offensive linemen against a veteran <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> front seven. I simply don’t see how they will be able to withstand the pressure, and I don’t see them stopping an offense that is very familiar with their personnel.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 <st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City> at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Over the past two years the Steelers are an astounding 13-1-2 against the total when playing at home. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City>’s defense is decimated – I mean completely decimated – and will be without as many as five starters. The Steelers have been throwing the ball more with Bruce Arians and I see them completely devastating the Bills. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> is 6-2 ATS over the past five years with a line between 36.0 and 38.0. Further, the ‘over’ is 36-15-2 in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City>’s last 53 home games, 46-22-2 with them as a favorite, and 10-1-1 when they allow less than 15 points in the previous game. Buy onto 37 if you have to because it’s such a key number, but if the Bills can chip in 9-13 points this one won’t be in doubt at all.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 34.5 <st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City> at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City></st1lace> (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: I endorse this play at 35.0 because that merely brings the push into play.
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> went 9-1 against the number last year at home and is 9-3 in Soldier Field when the total is between 33.5 and 35.5. The ‘over’ is 10-2 in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City>’s last 12 home games, 16-6-1 in their last 23 overall, and 14-3-1 as a favorite. The Bears lost two starters on defense last week and the Chiefs will be without two of their better defenders (Jared Allen and Patrick Surtain). These two teams combined for six points last week so there’s a naturally overreaction toward the ‘under’. But there’s a system at work here that’s hit at nearly 73 percent ‘over’ for the past six years. Chicago’s first four home games last year saw an average of 45.5 combined points and four of the Bears’ last five home openers have gone ‘over’. Rex Grossman is notorious for this – answering critics with a 250-yard, 4 TD eruption when everyone is calling for his head.
3-Unit Play. Take #206 <st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State> (+7.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Two very good systems at work here. First, play on a home dog that won its last game outright vs. an opponent who was playing at home. This system hit at roughly 61 percent over the past 15 years. Next, play on a division home dog that won straight up on as an away dog the previous week. This system has hit at 66 percent over the past 15 years. I couldn’t have been more impressed with how physical <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> was last week and I think they can make the Colts uncomfortable with their style. Also, road teams favored by 7.5 or more were 38-63 ATS (37.6 percent) between 1997 and 2006.
2-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+7) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
If the Panthers are an automatic play as an underdog (20-3-1 ATS) then they are also an automatic play against as a favorite. The Jake Delhomme-John Fox combo is 9-17-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-7 ATS at home, and 3-12 ATS as a favorite between 4.0 and 7.0. Remember, the Panthers were on the verge of losing in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">St. Louis</st1lace></st1:City> before two Steven Jackson fumbles handed them 14 points. I don’t see Carolina running the ball they way they did against an awful Rams defense, and this is play blends two basic tenets that have been very successful recently – playing the underdogs (58 percent ATS in 2006) and playing the AFC vs. the NFC.
2-Unit Play. Take #232 <st1:City w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:City> (-6.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)
Andy Reid is 10-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite and Donovan McNabb is 16-7 ATS following a loss. The Eagles are 17-10 ATS playing at home as a favorite after a loss and - the coup de grace - they are 11-3 ATS as home chalk on Monday Night Football. Is this line about 1-3 points to much? Yes. But you can't argue with results. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> is 3-7 ATS on MNF and have a young quarterback making his first road start. In Philly. The 'Skins lost Jon Jansen and I think their offensive line will suffer, especially against the blitz-happy Eagles. Finally, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> is 10-5 ATS when scoring 21 or more points and 12-22 ATS when they don't. I don't see it happening for them this week.
BONUS SELECTION
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take <st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> (-1.5), <st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City> (-0.5), and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> (-0.5).
Note: This is a 3-team sweetheart teaser which just about all online books offer. However, since all customers that use "local guys" may not be able to play this game it's simply a bonus play. I initially liked all three teams to cover their normal lines, and favorites of 8.0 or higher in Week 2 went 5-1 last year. However, over the past 10 years faves of -8.0 or higher this early in the year are just 13-18 ATS (41.9 percent) and if you throw out last year they were just 8-17 ATS (32 percent). For this bet to lose, one of these three teams would have to lose outright, basically, and I simply do not see that happening. I see <st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> 34-10, <st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City> 24-13, and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> 38-9. It's 10-cent juice on this bet and I like it as an online bonus for those of you that like the action.<o></o>