Greg Shaker
MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers - Brewers -1.5 (Shearn/Sheets) -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Note: I am not going to spend much time on why this game is a good play because it is so cut and dry. It takes a perfect situation for me to play a Runline play and I do think we have that tonight in Wisconsin. We obviously have a Brewers Team that is fighting for a playoff birth and in a good situation to make inroads this weekend with the Cubbies playing a weekend series at St Louis. The Brew Crew are in the very best situation tonight, playing where they play very well, at Miller Park, and with their very best Thrower on the mound. Sheets is 6-1 here with a 2.80 ERA in 11 games pitched, and the Brewers are 45-26 in this ballpark as well. The Reds have won their last 3 games, but those were at home where they have been a much better team. This is a Big-Time game and Ben Sheets is a Big-Time Pitcher. The liklihood of him throwing quality stuff tonight is good because of that and the liklihood of Milwaukee scoring runs is as well. They have been stroking the ball very well of late, batting over the .300 mark the last 12 played, and they certainly know how to score at this Park and should be able to do so against what I feel is a marginal pitcher at best. The Cincy Pen is marginal as well. Simply put, a 2 run win or more is very likely tonight and therefore a Runline Play is in order. Just do it and be happy.
MLB: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals - Cardinals (Zambrano/Wainwright) +105 | Unit Value: 1 DIME
Note: If ever there was a must win series, this is it for the Cardinals. They cannot afford to slip any further back in the standings as we approach the final 2 weeks of the season. They did have an awful series at Cincy, but return home for what will be a heated rivalry series with the Cubs. We can expect the stands to be packed for this one with a lot of Chicago Fans making the trip. Zambrano finally put together a good effort last time on the mound, but prior to that he has been hammered in the previous 5, allowing an amazing 30 runs over less than 30 innings. That is just not that sporty and with this Cards lineup, he could be in for another rough night. Our thrower has been as good as anyone in the league and in fact has allowed 2 or less runs in the last 6 thrown and 3 or less in the last 8 played. The Cards have won the last 4 of 5 times he has been on the hill and have been in every contest over the last 8. St Louis has won their last 7 of 9 at this Park and I am sure they are very happy to be back home. The Cards do have a very good bullpen and one that is performing very well of late, posting an ERA of well under 3 runs per 9 innings the last 15 played. Oddsmakers have given us a great line based on Zambrano being on the hill, but the fact is, Chicago has lost 7 of his last 8 thrown. Great value here, and you can best believe that the Cubs will feeling the heat of the Pennant race, not the Home team.
MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers - Brewers -1.5 (Shearn/Sheets) -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Note: I am not going to spend much time on why this game is a good play because it is so cut and dry. It takes a perfect situation for me to play a Runline play and I do think we have that tonight in Wisconsin. We obviously have a Brewers Team that is fighting for a playoff birth and in a good situation to make inroads this weekend with the Cubbies playing a weekend series at St Louis. The Brew Crew are in the very best situation tonight, playing where they play very well, at Miller Park, and with their very best Thrower on the mound. Sheets is 6-1 here with a 2.80 ERA in 11 games pitched, and the Brewers are 45-26 in this ballpark as well. The Reds have won their last 3 games, but those were at home where they have been a much better team. This is a Big-Time game and Ben Sheets is a Big-Time Pitcher. The liklihood of him throwing quality stuff tonight is good because of that and the liklihood of Milwaukee scoring runs is as well. They have been stroking the ball very well of late, batting over the .300 mark the last 12 played, and they certainly know how to score at this Park and should be able to do so against what I feel is a marginal pitcher at best. The Cincy Pen is marginal as well. Simply put, a 2 run win or more is very likely tonight and therefore a Runline Play is in order. Just do it and be happy.
MLB: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals - Cardinals (Zambrano/Wainwright) +105 | Unit Value: 1 DIME
Note: If ever there was a must win series, this is it for the Cardinals. They cannot afford to slip any further back in the standings as we approach the final 2 weeks of the season. They did have an awful series at Cincy, but return home for what will be a heated rivalry series with the Cubs. We can expect the stands to be packed for this one with a lot of Chicago Fans making the trip. Zambrano finally put together a good effort last time on the mound, but prior to that he has been hammered in the previous 5, allowing an amazing 30 runs over less than 30 innings. That is just not that sporty and with this Cards lineup, he could be in for another rough night. Our thrower has been as good as anyone in the league and in fact has allowed 2 or less runs in the last 6 thrown and 3 or less in the last 8 played. The Cards have won the last 4 of 5 times he has been on the hill and have been in every contest over the last 8. St Louis has won their last 7 of 9 at this Park and I am sure they are very happy to be back home. The Cards do have a very good bullpen and one that is performing very well of late, posting an ERA of well under 3 runs per 9 innings the last 15 played. Oddsmakers have given us a great line based on Zambrano being on the hill, but the fact is, Chicago has lost 7 of his last 8 thrown. Great value here, and you can best believe that the Cubs will feeling the heat of the Pennant race, not the Home team.
John Ryan
Game: Oklahoma St. at Troy Sep 14 2007 8:00PM
Ai Simulator 7*Troy State
The AiS shows an 85% probability that Troy will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 53-22 ATS since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season. What is impressive with this system is that nearly 50% of these games (37 games) covered the spread by 7 or more points and based on the AiS, I strongly believe you will see a 3 or less point result tonight. Troy has had two games against far superior nationally ranked opponents in Arkansas and Florida and despite losing them both the game experience at that level will serve them very well against a lesser foe in Oklahoma State. Conversely, Ok State was outplayed in every facet of the game against Georgia and really what can you learn from the Florida Atlantic game. The Cowboys are led by All-American receiver Adarius Bowman. A 6-foot-4, 220-pound senior from Chattanooga, Tenn., had 60 receptions for 1,181 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2006, his first year in Stillwater after transferring from North Carolina. In two games this year he has 10 receptions for 200 yards and three scores. OSU has QB and RB issues too duo to injuries in last week's game. RB Dantrell Savage will be slowed due to a groin injury. Junior QB Ried is hampered by an ankle injury, but his replacement Robinson threw for 250 yards – but that was against Florida Atlantic. Troy has shown periods of excellence during the first two games and if they eliminate the letdown for 60 minutes they could win this game. The home crowd will be very supportive to that end. Take Troy. Of note: I waited until the last possible moment to get all of the latest injury information possible and know that the play will NOT change due to any of the aforementioned players starting or not starting. Of course if OSU has to go to the third string RB then that can only help Troy.
Game: Oklahoma St. at Troy Sep 14 2007 8:00PM
Ai Simulator 7*Troy State
The AiS shows an 85% probability that Troy will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 53-22 ATS since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season. What is impressive with this system is that nearly 50% of these games (37 games) covered the spread by 7 or more points and based on the AiS, I strongly believe you will see a 3 or less point result tonight. Troy has had two games against far superior nationally ranked opponents in Arkansas and Florida and despite losing them both the game experience at that level will serve them very well against a lesser foe in Oklahoma State. Conversely, Ok State was outplayed in every facet of the game against Georgia and really what can you learn from the Florida Atlantic game. The Cowboys are led by All-American receiver Adarius Bowman. A 6-foot-4, 220-pound senior from Chattanooga, Tenn., had 60 receptions for 1,181 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2006, his first year in Stillwater after transferring from North Carolina. In two games this year he has 10 receptions for 200 yards and three scores. OSU has QB and RB issues too duo to injuries in last week's game. RB Dantrell Savage will be slowed due to a groin injury. Junior QB Ried is hampered by an ankle injury, but his replacement Robinson threw for 250 yards – but that was against Florida Atlantic. Troy has shown periods of excellence during the first two games and if they eliminate the letdown for 60 minutes they could win this game. The home crowd will be very supportive to that end. Take Troy. Of note: I waited until the last possible moment to get all of the latest injury information possible and know that the play will NOT change due to any of the aforementioned players starting or not starting. Of course if OSU has to go to the third string RB then that can only help Troy.
Ben Burns Baseball
anybody interested in Burns Baseball picks... all late games
Ben Burns' PERSONAL FAVORITE (7-1 L8 PF's!) -- Friday
I'm laying the price with the SEATTLE MARINERS. Don't tell the Mariners that their season is over quite yet! After struggling through a horrendous slump, the Mariners have rediscoverd their "mojo" the past couple of nights. One night after rallying for a big 9th inning win against Oakland, the Mariners scored two runs in the seventh and five in the eighth to erase a 7-1 deficit and beat Tampa Bay by a score of 8-7. Of course, that's not a huge surprise when considering that Tampa Bay's bullpen came into the game with a 7.91 ERA and 1.995 WHIP on the road! Needless to say, blown leads have been fairly common for fans of the Devil Rays. Shields has been one of Tampa's better pitchers. However, his 4.53 ERA on the road isn't particularly special. It's also worth noting that the Devil Rays are just 6-14 his last 20 road starts. Conversely, the Mariners are 14-6 in Hernandez's last 20 home starts, including 10-4 this year. Note that Hernandez has been dominant in two starts vs. the Devil Rays here, allowing just two earned runs through 15 2/3 innings for a 1.15 ERA. The Mariners won those two games by a combined score of 13-2! Yesterday's momentum-building win brought the Mariners to 8-1 the last nine home meetings in this series. It also brought them to a highly profitable 18-4 (+12.6) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range for the season. Look for them to build on those impressive stats this evening. *Personal Favorite
Ben Burns' Friday Feast (TOTAL) **40-19 L59 MLB**
I'm playing on the Giants and Padres to finish UNDER the total. The UNDER is 9-3 (or 9-2-1) in 12 meetings between these teams this season and this should be another low-scoring affair. Zito didn't start the season very well but he's finishing it off in fine form. Although he hasn't been getting any run support, the former Oakland star has a stellar 2.25 ERA and 0.750 WHIP his last three starts. Those games all stayed below the total, averaging only 5.3 combined runs per game. For the season, Zito has seen the UNDER go 10-5 on the road. He's also seen the UNDER go 3-0 vs. the Padres over his career with those games averaging only five runs each. Meanwhile, Young has seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 10-1 in his 11 home starts. Although he has struggled a bit recently, he still has an awesome 1.24 ERA and 0.940 WHIP at home for the season. His most recent start against the Giants resulted in a final score of 1-0 (vs. Cain on 4/9) and I'm expecting another "pitcher's duel" this evening. *Friday Feast
anybody interested in Burns Baseball picks... all late games
Ben Burns' PERSONAL FAVORITE (7-1 L8 PF's!) -- Friday
I'm laying the price with the SEATTLE MARINERS. Don't tell the Mariners that their season is over quite yet! After struggling through a horrendous slump, the Mariners have rediscoverd their "mojo" the past couple of nights. One night after rallying for a big 9th inning win against Oakland, the Mariners scored two runs in the seventh and five in the eighth to erase a 7-1 deficit and beat Tampa Bay by a score of 8-7. Of course, that's not a huge surprise when considering that Tampa Bay's bullpen came into the game with a 7.91 ERA and 1.995 WHIP on the road! Needless to say, blown leads have been fairly common for fans of the Devil Rays. Shields has been one of Tampa's better pitchers. However, his 4.53 ERA on the road isn't particularly special. It's also worth noting that the Devil Rays are just 6-14 his last 20 road starts. Conversely, the Mariners are 14-6 in Hernandez's last 20 home starts, including 10-4 this year. Note that Hernandez has been dominant in two starts vs. the Devil Rays here, allowing just two earned runs through 15 2/3 innings for a 1.15 ERA. The Mariners won those two games by a combined score of 13-2! Yesterday's momentum-building win brought the Mariners to 8-1 the last nine home meetings in this series. It also brought them to a highly profitable 18-4 (+12.6) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range for the season. Look for them to build on those impressive stats this evening. *Personal Favorite
Ben Burns' Friday Feast (TOTAL) **40-19 L59 MLB**
I'm playing on the Giants and Padres to finish UNDER the total. The UNDER is 9-3 (or 9-2-1) in 12 meetings between these teams this season and this should be another low-scoring affair. Zito didn't start the season very well but he's finishing it off in fine form. Although he hasn't been getting any run support, the former Oakland star has a stellar 2.25 ERA and 0.750 WHIP his last three starts. Those games all stayed below the total, averaging only 5.3 combined runs per game. For the season, Zito has seen the UNDER go 10-5 on the road. He's also seen the UNDER go 3-0 vs. the Padres over his career with those games averaging only five runs each. Meanwhile, Young has seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 10-1 in his 11 home starts. Although he has struggled a bit recently, he still has an awesome 1.24 ERA and 0.940 WHIP at home for the season. His most recent start against the Giants resulted in a final score of 1-0 (vs. Cain on 4/9) and I'm expecting another "pitcher's duel" this evening. *Friday Feast
