Larry Ness
Game: Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Texas Rangers Aug 10 2007 8:35PM
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Reason: I passed over this game in my first run-through but the closer I looked, the more I came to realize that the Rangers are an excellent play. It's always easy to go against the Devil Rays, especially on the road. Here we catch Tampa Bay off consecutive road wins at Detroit, by scores of 7-1 and 8-1 (how bad has Detroit been lately?). Tampa is the not-so-proud owner of the current "daily double." The D'Rays own MLB's worst record (44-70) and also reside in the basement in the moneyline standings (minus-$1,850), as well. A quick comparison shows that Texas is only five games better in the standings (49-65) but almost $1,500 better in the ML standings (minus-$403). Also note that the Rangers are 28-27 at home (plus-$260), while Tampa also owns MLB's worst road record (18-37). While the D'Rays have been outscored by 162 runs in '07, the Rangers are just minus-69 runs in differential. Tampa owns MLB's worst team ERA (5.84) and tonight's rookie starter, Andy Sonnanstine, has surely helped contribute. He's 1-7 with a 6.12 ERA in his 12 starts this year, with the team going 2-10 (minus-$778). That ranks him 253rd among 264 starters this year! Now Texas' Brandon McCarthy (5-8, 5.04 ERA) is no bargain but he's not allowed more than three ERs in ANY of his last six starts (3.31 ERA), while pitching into the sixth inning in all but one. As mentioned earlier, the D'Rays have won back-to-back road games. The last time this franchise has won three straight away from Tropicana Field was Sept. 25-28, 2005! Before Wednesday and Thursday's wins at Detroit, Tampa had lost 19 of its previous 21 road games. 'Under the Radar' Game of the Week 15* Tex Rangers.