Lenny Del Genio's 15* AL Game of the Week (12-1 run with 15* GOW plays!)
Play on the Tigers at 7:05 ET. The Tigers won last night 2-1 and pulled within a half-game of the Indians in the Central. Both teams have struggled since the break but Cleveland's offense has really become anemic as of late, averaging 3.3 rpg over its last eight games. They'll face Detroit's Justin Verlander who has seen the Tigers go 17-7 (plus-$838) in his starts this year (ranks 11th among all starters in MLB!), including an impressive 9-3 in his home starts. Verlander also owns a 2.25 ERA in three career home starts versus the Indians. Cleveland will counter with Paul Byrd who is 11-5 with a 4.41 ERA. However, Byrd relies on excellent command of his pitches, including a repertoire of off-speed pitches. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. He's the kind of pitcher the Tigers 'feast' on (5.40 ERA in two starts versus Detroit in '07), with the majors' 3rd-best team BA (.285) and 2nd-most runs scored (694). Detroit is my 15* AL Game of the Week.
Play on the Tigers at 7:05 ET. The Tigers won last night 2-1 and pulled within a half-game of the Indians in the Central. Both teams have struggled since the break but Cleveland's offense has really become anemic as of late, averaging 3.3 rpg over its last eight games. They'll face Detroit's Justin Verlander who has seen the Tigers go 17-7 (plus-$838) in his starts this year (ranks 11th among all starters in MLB!), including an impressive 9-3 in his home starts. Verlander also owns a 2.25 ERA in three career home starts versus the Indians. Cleveland will counter with Paul Byrd who is 11-5 with a 4.41 ERA. However, Byrd relies on excellent command of his pitches, including a repertoire of off-speed pitches. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. He's the kind of pitcher the Tigers 'feast' on (5.40 ERA in two starts versus Detroit in '07), with the majors' 3rd-best team BA (.285) and 2nd-most runs scored (694). Detroit is my 15* AL Game of the Week.
Ferringo
4.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 11.0 Atlanta at Cincinnati (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Note: This is our Total of the Month.
The ‘over’ is 36-17-2 in the last 55 meetings and 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Cincinnati. We don’t exactly have a couple of aces on the hill, as Lance Cormier and rubberneck Bronson Arroyo are slated to start. Both of these powerful lineups have been clicking lately and we have an ump, Brian Gorman, with an incredibly tight zone behind the dish. The ‘over’ is 33-14 in Atlanta’s last 47 overall and 37-18-3 in Cincy’s last 58 overall. I know this number is high, but the wind is blowing out and all the pieces are in place for another shootout.
4.5-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles (-105) over Philadelphia (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Cole Hamels was supposed to start but is now out with an injury. This not only hurts the rotation but also hurts the psyche of the Phils, who now have to endure another injury to a key player. J.D. Durbin is his fill-in and his 7.04 ERA shows that he hasn’t exactly mastered Citizens Bank Park. The Dodgers are playing better ball lately and have one of their only reliable arms on the hill in Derek Lowe. Lowe has a career 2.65 ERA against the Phillies and appears to have recovered from an injury of his own. H has a WHIP of 0.92 and an ERA of 2.08 in his last two starts.
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 (+100) Chicago Cubs at San Francisco (10 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Barry Zito and Rich Hill are coming off two of their best outings of the year, combining to yield just four hits in 14 innings while surrendering one earned run. However, they both threw over 115 pitches. Dana DeMuth is behind the plate and he has the second highest walks per game average for any ump with over 12 games. I think he has a tight zone and there will be a 15 mph wind blowing straight out to centerfield. After a slow showing by both offenses last night I expect these two teams to crack double digits today.
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Boston at Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Dice-K has a road ERA of 2.99 this season and counterpart Edwin Jackson has an ERA of just 3.21 in his last eight appearances. Also, five of the last seven meetings have stayed ‘under’. The ‘under’ is 38-14-2 on the road against a righty starter while ‘under’ is 20-6-2 with Tampa Bay facing a right-hander at home. The ‘under’ is 10-4 in Dice-K’s last 14 overall and 7-2 on the road.
2-Unit Play. Take Houston (-145) over Washington (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Mike Bacsik has made his last two appearances in relief and has a 7.50 ERA in his last four appearances. Bacsik has a 5.40 road ERA and has tailed off quite a bit. Wood Williams is a wreck. But he is 13-7 at Minute Maid Park and has an ERA of 2.57 against the Nationals in Houston. The Nats haven’t beaten a team three straight times on the road all season.
1-Unit Play. Take San Diego (-150) over New York Mets (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Jake Peavy is 14-3 following a loss by the Padres. He’s won five straight road starts and this is solid value on San Diego’s ace.
That's it for today. Good luck.
4.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 11.0 Atlanta at Cincinnati (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Note: This is our Total of the Month.
The ‘over’ is 36-17-2 in the last 55 meetings and 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Cincinnati. We don’t exactly have a couple of aces on the hill, as Lance Cormier and rubberneck Bronson Arroyo are slated to start. Both of these powerful lineups have been clicking lately and we have an ump, Brian Gorman, with an incredibly tight zone behind the dish. The ‘over’ is 33-14 in Atlanta’s last 47 overall and 37-18-3 in Cincy’s last 58 overall. I know this number is high, but the wind is blowing out and all the pieces are in place for another shootout.
4.5-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles (-105) over Philadelphia (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Cole Hamels was supposed to start but is now out with an injury. This not only hurts the rotation but also hurts the psyche of the Phils, who now have to endure another injury to a key player. J.D. Durbin is his fill-in and his 7.04 ERA shows that he hasn’t exactly mastered Citizens Bank Park. The Dodgers are playing better ball lately and have one of their only reliable arms on the hill in Derek Lowe. Lowe has a career 2.65 ERA against the Phillies and appears to have recovered from an injury of his own. H has a WHIP of 0.92 and an ERA of 2.08 in his last two starts.
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 (+100) Chicago Cubs at San Francisco (10 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Barry Zito and Rich Hill are coming off two of their best outings of the year, combining to yield just four hits in 14 innings while surrendering one earned run. However, they both threw over 115 pitches. Dana DeMuth is behind the plate and he has the second highest walks per game average for any ump with over 12 games. I think he has a tight zone and there will be a 15 mph wind blowing straight out to centerfield. After a slow showing by both offenses last night I expect these two teams to crack double digits today.
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Boston at Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Dice-K has a road ERA of 2.99 this season and counterpart Edwin Jackson has an ERA of just 3.21 in his last eight appearances. Also, five of the last seven meetings have stayed ‘under’. The ‘under’ is 38-14-2 on the road against a righty starter while ‘under’ is 20-6-2 with Tampa Bay facing a right-hander at home. The ‘under’ is 10-4 in Dice-K’s last 14 overall and 7-2 on the road.
2-Unit Play. Take Houston (-145) over Washington (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Mike Bacsik has made his last two appearances in relief and has a 7.50 ERA in his last four appearances. Bacsik has a 5.40 road ERA and has tailed off quite a bit. Wood Williams is a wreck. But he is 13-7 at Minute Maid Park and has an ERA of 2.57 against the Nationals in Houston. The Nats haven’t beaten a team three straight times on the road all season.
1-Unit Play. Take San Diego (-150) over New York Mets (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 22)
Jake Peavy is 14-3 following a loss by the Padres. He’s won five straight road starts and this is solid value on San Diego’s ace.
That's it for today. Good luck.
Wunderdog
Game: Washington at Houston (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units Washington +132 (risk 5 to win 6.6)
Washington continues to perform better than the odds-makers and general public want to believe they are. We nailed them last night at +150 and we'll get on them again here. The Nats rank third to the moneyline in all of baseball. This team is 24-19 over their last 43 games. They have done it with some young starting pitching and a bullpen that ranks fourth in the NL. They have gone 5-2 vs. left handed pitchers on the road during this surge, averaging 7 runs per game. They are 6-2 on the road when they are a +150 dog or less vs. a LHP. The Astros are just 12-15 in games started by Woody Williams, and he is backed by a bullpen that ranks second to last in the NL. The Nats have won Mike Bacsik's last six starts, and we will ride the value here, which is on the Nats.
Game: New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units Los Angeles Angels -101 (risk 4 to win 4)
What's with this line? The Angels are an unreal 42-17 at home this season - that's 71%! They score 6.2 runs per game here. They have beaten the yankees 21 out of 32 times over the past three seasons including six of eight this season. Over the past three seasons they are 11-4 vs. the Yankees here at home. And this line is even? Again, the Yankees are overvalued here and we find a lot of value on the other side. Sure Andy Pettitte is on the mound for New York. He's got a very good ERA but he's just 4-5 on the road. And, John Lackey is no slouch. He's got a 3.32 ERA on the season and 6-3 record at home. The Yankees are a LOSING team on the road, where their offense falls ways down. When facing very good teams on the road (those that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game), Pettite is just 6-19 the past three seasons. The Angels are 9-1 in their last ten vs. winning teams and 11-2 overall vs. teams that are 54%+ this season! Great value on the home team that rarely loses at home.
Game: Washington at Houston (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units Washington +132 (risk 5 to win 6.6)
Washington continues to perform better than the odds-makers and general public want to believe they are. We nailed them last night at +150 and we'll get on them again here. The Nats rank third to the moneyline in all of baseball. This team is 24-19 over their last 43 games. They have done it with some young starting pitching and a bullpen that ranks fourth in the NL. They have gone 5-2 vs. left handed pitchers on the road during this surge, averaging 7 runs per game. They are 6-2 on the road when they are a +150 dog or less vs. a LHP. The Astros are just 12-15 in games started by Woody Williams, and he is backed by a bullpen that ranks second to last in the NL. The Nats have won Mike Bacsik's last six starts, and we will ride the value here, which is on the Nats.
Game: New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units Los Angeles Angels -101 (risk 4 to win 4)
What's with this line? The Angels are an unreal 42-17 at home this season - that's 71%! They score 6.2 runs per game here. They have beaten the yankees 21 out of 32 times over the past three seasons including six of eight this season. Over the past three seasons they are 11-4 vs. the Yankees here at home. And this line is even? Again, the Yankees are overvalued here and we find a lot of value on the other side. Sure Andy Pettitte is on the mound for New York. He's got a very good ERA but he's just 4-5 on the road. And, John Lackey is no slouch. He's got a 3.32 ERA on the season and 6-3 record at home. The Yankees are a LOSING team on the road, where their offense falls ways down. When facing very good teams on the road (those that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game), Pettite is just 6-19 the past three seasons. The Angels are 9-1 in their last ten vs. winning teams and 11-2 overall vs. teams that are 54%+ this season! Great value on the home team that rarely loses at home.
