service plays 09/05/07

[sportsdude]

Larry Ness' 15* MLB Underdog of the Week (25-7 since Aug 7 / 108-37 this season!)

My 15* play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET. The Red Sox have started September by winning four in row (has outscored opponents by 31-15), beginning with rookie Clay Buchholz's no-hitter over Baltimore in his second career start on Saturday. Despite owning the best record in baseball, Boston has not won more than five straight this season. The Red Sox won't make it to five here! Curt Schilling takes the mound. He came within one out of throwing a no-hitter at Oakland on June 7 but then was 'lit up' for 11 ERs in just 9.1 innings of his next two starts. That landed him on the DL for seven weeks with shoulder tendinitis. Schilling is 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA in the five starts (team is 2-3) since his return but he's always struggled against the Blue Jays. Schilling is 3-6 with a 5.68 ERA in 15 career appearances (11 starts) against Toronto, his highest ERA against any team. Toronto will turn to Shaun Marcum (12-5, 3.75 ERA). He began the year in the bullpen, with his first start not coming until May 13. He's been Toronto's best pitcher since the break, going 8-2 with a 3.92 ERA. Marcum is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in seven career appearances (two starts) vs Boston and has been excellent on the road all year. He's 7-2 with a 2.65 ERA in 16 outings (10 starts) away from home in '07 (Toronto is 7-3 in those 10 road starts). Underdog of the Week 15* Tor Blue Jays.
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[sportsdude]

Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner-MLB (25-10 since May 6!)

My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Brewers at 8:05 ET. After last night's 5-3 win, the Brewers will try to complete a six-game homestand with five victories, as they close a three-game series with the Astros on Wednesday night. Milwaukee owns the NL's best home mark (44-26) while Houston owns the NL's worst road mark (26-44). The Astros also rank 29th of 30 team in the moneyline standings at minis-$1,656. Matt Albers (4-6, 5.36 ERA) gets the start for Houston and while he is 2-1 in four starts (3.42 ERA) since rejoining the rotation on a regular basis, he's hardly someone to be trusted. A three start stretch in May (0-3 with an 11.68 ERA) got him sent to the minors. Since his return, he's spent most of his time in the bullpen but is making his fifth consecutive start here. However, let's not forget in eight road starts in '07, he's 2-4 (team is 3-5) with a 5.76 ERA. Brewers rookie Yovani Gallardo (6-4, 4.66) is trying to win consecutive starts for just the second time. The 21-year-old right-hander shut down the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, giving up two runs in seven innings while striking out seven in a 3-2 victory. Gallardo is 4-1 with a 3.26 in six home starts this year (team is 4-2). The Brewers have gotten back to within a half-game of the Cubs in the NL Central and knowing they start a six-game road trip at Cincinnati on Friday following this game, won't miss this opportunity to beat the NL's worst road team, especially with a pitcher like Albers on the mound. Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Mil Brewers.
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[durden84]

Ben Burns

Ben Burn's Personal Favorite

TB D'Rays

 

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Big Al McMordie

Big Al McMordie

At 7:05pm our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Florida Marlins. Lest you think this series between the 4th and 5th place teams in the NL East doesn't mean anything to these franchises, think again. Neither the Nats nor the Marlins wants to finish in the cellar of the division at year's end. For the Marlins, there is pride at stake for a team that only four years ago won it all and for the Nats, because they were expected to finish dead last in the National League, there is almost a playoff atmosphere for the team and their fans if they can stay out of the basement of the NL East, which right now they have managed to do (by two games as of Tuesday night). Marlins young righthander Sergio Mitre looked like one of the best young pitchers in the league earlier this year, but the bottom fell out all of a sudden and he has been simply horrific of late. The Marlins have lost Mitre's last four starts and he has given up a minimum of five runs in each of those outings. Tim Redding on the other hand has some what resurrected his career this season in Washington. Despite losing his last two, Redding has been very solid for Washington with a 3.27 ERA in his eleven starts. And the Nationals have a winning record in Reddings seven home starts (4-3). Take the Nationals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

 

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Scott Spreitzer

Scott Spreitzer

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, September 5th, 1:10 P.M. EST EST

I'm playing the Indians with Carmona over the Twins & Baker. We have one of 2007's best afternoon hurlers against one of the luckiest. Fausto Carmona is 8-1 in 11 daytime starts, averaging just a shade under 7 IP per start. In fact, he owns a strong 2.11 ERA & 1.25 WHIP! Meanwhile, Scott Baker is 3-0 in six day starts this season, but he's allowed 19 earned runs and 56 base runners in just 35 IP. That's a 4.89 ERA & 1.60 WHIP, to go along with a horrible, .331 BAA! What it all means is that Baker has been getting enormous help in day starts. But that's not likely to be the case here. Not only does Carmona own the strong day numbers mentioned above, but he's been spectacular in three starts against the Twins this season, sporting a 1.14 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and .183 BAA! Talent wins out over luck on Wednesday. Good Luck - Scott Spreitzer

Play on: Cleveland

 

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Jimmy The Moose

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals
Sep 5 2007 8:10PM

Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

Reason: Pittsburgh has lost 6 of their last 7 overall. The Pirates are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a dog. Pittsburgh is 20-42 in their last 62 games palyed on Wednesday's. Armas, 2-5 with a 6.75 ERA, takes the mound tonight. The Cardinals are back in a pennant race. St. Louis is 12-3 in their last 15 games as a favorite. In their last 21 home games they are a profitable 16-5. Tonight Mulder makes his first start of the season vs. a team the Cardinals beat up on. St. Louis is 36-15 in the last 51 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Cardinals

 

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Pure Lock

Pure Lock

TORONTO @ BOSTON 7:05 PM EST

PLAY ON: BOSTON (MARCUM/SCHILLING) LISTED

 

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R&R Totals

R&R Totals

Over-Under Wednesday
Toronto @ Boston 7:05 PM EST

Play On: OVER THE TOTAL (Marcum/Schilling) Listed Pitchers

 

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Ben Burns

Ben Burns' Getaway Day Total of the Month - (EARLY!)

Cleve/Minny UNDER

 

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Ben Burns

Ben Burns' Major Mismatch:

Washington Nationals

 

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Greg Shaker

GREG SHAKER

PREMIUM PLAY

954 ATL / 953 PHI Under 9.5

Analysis: MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Under 9.5 -105 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES

Game Date: 9/5/2007
Note: Instead of filling your head up with the many reasons why this game will go UNDER the mark many more times than not, I will just cut to the bottom line and make it short and simple. The first two games of this series have played to 6 runs and 7 runs. The starting pitchers involved in those games were nothing like we have today and especially one of my favorites, Tim Hudson. What does remain the same are 2 facts: The Braves Bullpen is a damn good one, and getting better with each day. The Phillies Pen is much improved over the last 12 games. The Second reason is the same one as in the Cardinals game last night. These two teams are in the thick of a pennant race, and there will be a lot of managing in this game today. That means that large inning rallies will be attended to, utilizing these second line throwers. Barring a poor early outing by these two starters, and that is unlikely, we should watch this one go UNDER the total easily, despite the fact that we have 2 very good offensive clubs. That is why we are seeing such a large Total Line, and in my opinion, it is way too high considering the circumstances. The last 5 Atlanta played contests have gone UNDER the mark, as well as the last 10 doing the same at 7-2-1. We do have the right play in this one whether it wins or not.

 

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Michael Cannon

Michael Cannon Money Train
Wednesday's Plays:

10 Dime –

NATIONALS (With Mitre and Redding as listed pitchers)
Take the Nationals as the home chalk tonight over the Marlins.
Washington will start Tim Redding and although he has struggled with his command lately, I like him to get back on track tonight at home.
His mound opponent, Sergio Mitre, has been awful for the Fins recently. The right-hander hasn’t won since July 29 over the Giants and has an 8.86 ERA in his past eight starts. Mitre has allowed five or more runs in his last four starts.
With runs usually hard to come by in the cavernous RFK Stadium, Mitre just can’t afford to have another poor outing if the Fins have any chance here.
I don’t expect him to rise to the challenge, so take the Nats as the home chalk for the win.

5 Dime –

CARDINALS -1 ½ RUN LINE (With Bullington and Mulder as listed pitchers)
Take the Cardinals on the run line tonight over the Pirates.
Both teams have starting pitchers making their season debuts tonight, but I like the Cardinals to win big behind Mark Mulder.
That’s because the Bucs will start Bryan Bullington, who missed all of the 2006 season recovering from shoulder surgery. The right-hander went 11-9 with a 4.00 ERA in 26 starts for Triple-A Indianapolis, but he’s going to find the going a lot tougher against Albert Pujols and company.
Mulder has a good track record against the Pirates, going 6-0 with a 2.68 ERA in eight career starts. The left-hander will be facing a Pirates lineup comprised of September call-ups, so he shouldn’t have too tough of a time keeping limiting the Bucs offense.
Take the Cards on the run line tonight over the Bucs.

 

[durden84]

any good plays today?

 

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Big Al's

Big Al's daytime (7-2 RUN)!
Al McMordie CRUSHED THE BOOKS again with his NL Total of the Week on the 'over' in the Padres/Diamondbacks game, and Big Al's on a 7-2 STREAK over his last 9 plays here at the Online Store. Now, Al's UNLOADING on an AFTERNOON Baseball Totals Play that will EASILY GET THE $$$$! Pick it up right now.
Price: $15.00--- Oakland Under

 

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Nevada Sharpshooter

Wednesday
Blue Jays +150 Over Red Sox

 

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Wunderdog

Wunderdog

Game: Philadelphia at Atlanta (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Philadelphia +138 (risk 4 to win 5.5)



Tim Hudson has had a very streaky season. He started off better than just about any pitcher in baseball, as the Braves were 7-2 while he pitched to a 1.77 ERA into the middle of May. He then went cold, and the Braves were 2-5 in his next seven starts. He caught fire again, and the Braves won his next 11 starts. He has now gone cold again, as the Braves have dropped his last two starts. A close look at his numbers reveal that he has been average, or even slightly below since mid May. Hudson has worked 121 innings allowing 133 hits, and has pitched to an ERA of 4.24 since May 15. His last five outings have been even worse, as he has pitched to a 5.23 ERA. The Braves are playing themselves right out of any post-season hopes, as they have now gone 6-13 in their last 19 games. They have dropped four of their last five, scoring just 11 runs in the process, or 2.2 a game, and hitting just .214 as a team. The Phillies have gone 7-3 in their last 10, scoring 6.8-runs per game. Kyle Kendrick has kept the Phillies in every game he has pitched, and the Phil's have gone 10-5 with him on the hill, including 3-0 in his last three. The Phillies take game 3.


Game: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +134 (risk 3 to win 4)

Tampa Bay's been on quite a run having won nine of thirteen. But, can they keep this up? They have been scoring like crazy which has covered up the fact that they have allowed 6+ runs in five of their last eight games. They start Andy Sonnanstine tonight who is 4-9 on the year including 1-5 at home with a 6.51 ERA. Backking him up is a bullpen with a 6.17 ERA. At home on the season, the D-Rays score just 4.5 runs per game while Baltimore averages 4.7 on the road. The Orioles feast on bad defensive teams. They are 34-15 the past three seasons vs. AL opponents that allow 5.7+ runs per game (Tampa Bay gives up 5.9 per game on average and 6.2 per game vs. division foes). Baltimore owns a winning record vs. division opponents this season and we like the odds here against a horrible team that is due to come back down to earth.


Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Los Angeles Dodgers +140 (risk 4 to win 5.6)

Ted Lilly has struggled since around the middle of May when he had an ERA of 2.53. He has since worked 120 innings, and pitched to a 4.50 ERA. His recent struggles have shown numbers get even worse, as he has posted a 6.57 ERA in his last four starts. His record stands at an impressive 13-7, but the Cubs are 2-6 in games in which he has not gotten a decision, so they are only 15-13 overall. The Dodgers have had success against LHP all season, standing in plus units for the season. And they have hit Lilly hard the two times they have faced him this season. The Dodgers are playing very well having won 7 of 9 and 13 of 19. The Cubs are just 4-6 in their last 10, and that includes dropping the first two in this series. Eric Stults has only made three starts, but has kept the Dodgers in every game, and the Dodgers pen is amongst the best in baseball this season. We like LA to make it three straight here

 

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Ferringo

Rob Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take Cleveland (-120) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 5)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.

A very successful system this season is to fade average MLB pitchers coming off a complete game in their last appearance. Scott Baker nearly through a no-hitter in his last outing, but I think he’ll get touched up today by the Indians. Cleveland has won nine of 11 and are 8-2 in their last 10 within the division. Also, they are 17-8 in Fausto Carmona’s last 25 starts and 7-2 in his last nine against A.L. Central teams. Finally, Carmona is 8-1 with a 2.11 ERA in day games this season and he has been outstanding (6-4, 2.86) on the road as well.

4-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-150) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 5)
This is the Phillies’ 15th straight day playing a game and I think that fatigue – and knowing that home is just one game away – will catch up with them. Tim Hudson is 11-2 in his last 13 starts and 5-1 in his last six home starts. His counterpart, Kyle Kendrick, has dropped four of his last five road starts and is 1-4 following a quality start in his last appearance.

4-Unit Play. Take New York Mets (-140) over Cincinnati (12:30 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 5)
John Maine is 10-0 on the road with a total between 9.0 and 10.5 and is 10-1 in his last 11 road starts against a team with a losing record. In fact, Maine is 11-3 in his last 14 road starts and 18-4 against sub-.500 teams. Also, the Mets are 7-2 with Bob Davidson behind home plate while the Reds are 0-6.

3-Unit Play. Take Detroit (-1.5, -110) over Chicago White Sox (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 5)
This is a system play based on the Tigers loss last night as a big favorite. The White Sox are 4-13 against teams above .500, 17-35 vs. a left-handed starter, and 7-20 over the past month. The Tigers haven’t been that much better, but I think they bounce back today. Kenny Rogers has won five of his past six starts against the Sox and the Tigers are 17-5 in his last 22 home starts.

3-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-160) over Pittsburgh (8 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 5)
This is not as much a play on Mark Mulder’s return as it is a play against Tony Armas Jr. The Pirates have dropped six of his seven road starts and Armas has a career record of 24-44 as a visitor. The Pirates don’t hit lefties particularly well and are 15-36 in the past 51 meetings with the Cardinals. St. Louis is 12-3 as a favorite recently and there are still good vibes in that ballpark

 

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Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers ( 7-0 on last 7 totals. Having good year. Won yesterday on Az over)

20* Texas/K.C . over

 

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Northcoast

-triple Crown 4 Star Cleveland With Carmona
-3 Star Cleveland Under 8- With Carmona And Baker
-3 Star Texas With Padilla
-5 Star San Diego Under 9-

 

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Sebastian

SEBASTIAN

10* Mets
10* LAD
20* Clev under
20* NYY over
20* Toronto