Brandon Lang
SATURDAY
25 DIME
Angels -1 1/2 Runs - Specify Pitchers - Silva vs Lackey
5 DIME
Arizona -1 1/2 runs - Specify Pitchers - Lannan vs Webb
Jacksonville Jags
free pick - Pittsburgh Steelers - (For analysis see daily video)
Analysis
ANGELS
If the Minnesota Twins show up today and score more than 3 runs in this game to beat me, so be it, I guess some things in life are just not meant to be.
I mean, seriously folks, in their last 9 games the Twins have scored more than 3 runs only 1 time and that was an 11 runs against the Royals and Odalis Perez.
Other than that, they have scored 3, 2, 3, 1, 0, 1, 0 and 1 run.
Now, the amazing thing about this stretch of not hitting water if they fell out of a boat is the starting pitchers they have been unable to hit.
Kyle Davies and Paul Byrd shut them out. Brian Bannister held them to 1 run. Rookie Aaron Laffey held them to 3 runs.
They ran into Kelvin Escobar last night and he dominated them to the tune of 1 run over 5 hits sending this non hitting team down to their 6th loss in their last 9 games including 4 of their last 5.
Now, I have friends who played in the big leagues and some that arer still playing now and when a team goes into an offensive slump, much like the one the Twins are in now, they all tell me the same thing.
You start pressing. You are no longer relaxed. You completely lose your rthymn and the only thing that gets you out of it is if you face a bad pitcher who is struggling.
Escobar wasn't one of those last night and I am 100% confident John Lackey won't be another one tonight.
First and foremost, the Cy Young is in his grasp. It really is and I guarantee he knows it.
He is 14-6 with a 3.11 ERA and he can take over the major league lead in wins with a great effort today. He is currently tied with 4 pitchers in the bigs with 14 wins and one of them Josh Beckett goes early Saturday.
Just put a little added incentive for Lackey if Beckett wins earlier in the day.
Secondly, I don't think Lackey has been too happy with himself in how he has handled the Twins, most notably that day game on June 6th when he gave up 6 runs on 7 hits in 7 innings of an 8-5 loss at home.
He comes into this game pitching really well winning his second straight beating the A's 4-3 at Oakland giving up just 3 runs and 9 hits in 6 2/3 innings.
Bottom line is with the Cy Young award truly within his reach as is 20 wins in a season, today is the perfect day for him to step up and shutout a team in a horrible slump right now and that is the Twins.
Now, what makes this game even more appealing to me, what put me over the top making it my 3rd highest baseball release of the year is the fact Carlos Silva goes for the Twins.
Here is a guy that in his last 3 road starts his team has lost 13-1 at Toronto, 6-3 at Chicago against the White Sox and 8-0 at Yankee stadium.
He was responsible for 6 earned runs in each game which all adds up to 18 runs in 15 2/3 innings. That is a road ERA of 8.62 in his last 3 on the highway.
All I have to say is this.
If the Twins woke up this morning and went to Disneyland and Mickey, Minnie, Goofy and the whole gang touch them and they show up tonight and hit for only the 2nd time in the last 10 games to beat me, like I said, so be it.
This is a Twins team that has scored a major league low 84 runs since the All Star break. Seriously folks, this is the lowest scoring team in all of baseball in the 2nd half of the season.
The Angels offensively have found it again and in a big way. In this stretch of 10-5 they are scoring an average of 6.7 runs including a current 3 game run of 10, 6 and 10.
Let me also remind you that their last weekend home series they played 2 weeks ago against the Detroit Tigers the Angels scored 11, 10 and 13 runs beating up on 3 pretty good pitchers in Jeremy Bonderman, Andrew Miller and Nate Robertson.
I am stepping out tonight and calling for the Angels to score at least 7 runs in this game and for John Lackey and the rest of this Angel staff to do to the Twins what everyone else is doing.
Stopping a Twins offensive that is truly non exsistent right now.
If they can't do that, if Lackey gets rocked and falls into the category of Odalis Perez, the only other pitcher the Twins have hit in their last 9 games, then so be it, I lose my big play and Lackey can kiss any hopes of the Cy Young goodbye.
I just can't see that happening today. Not with the Twins being in the slump they are and not with the Angels as hot as they are.
25 Dime Run Line Play is Angels by 2 runs or more tonight.
ARIZONA -1 1/2 RUNS
Came very close to making this game a monster run line play as well but greed sometimes is not a good thing.
One of the reasons I kept this game at a 5 dime is Brandon Webb is coming off a complete game shutout of the Dodgers pushing his scoreless run to 24 straight innings.
His D'backs have won 16 of their last 19 games overall and are coming off an 11-4 win over the Nationals last night.
They hammered a lefty in Chico last night and now they see another lefty in Lannan who is making his fourth major league start after a very impressive performance against the Giants last time out.
He held them to one run on 8 hits over 7 innings taking a no decision.
This game tonight is just a case of one team that is absolutely on fire, with their hottest pitcher going against a young lefty who is due to get rocked.
Lay the run line here again tonight as the D'backs roll by 2 runs or more just like the Angels.
JACKSONVILLE JAGS
To put it bluntly, I just can't see how the Jags lose this game. I really don't.
Under head coach Jack Del Rio, they have gone 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS in his first 4 years of preseason action.
Now this year he brings arguably the best trio of QB's in which to throw out there not only tonight, but all preseason.
I am talking about Byron Leftwich, David Garrard and Quinn Gray, all of whom started a regular season game last year.
If that is not enough for you, let's throw in former 1st round draft choice Tim Couch in the mix for good measure.
New coach Cam Cameron won't have much to work with after Trent Green leaves after his 10 of 15 plays. I mean, I don't have much faith in Cleo Lemon or rookie John Beck.
The Dolphins are 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS last 9 in the preseason and in my opinion, all the planets are aligned for the Jags to get an easy win here.
Play Jacksonville.