Have not done much research on this, but a top prospect would be 66%.
Plays far too many games and FAR FAR too much chalk in baseball.
His own self proclaimed record is horrible in term of units compared to win\loss record.
PLUS.... His choice of screen name makes him an obvious joke from the get-go.
Plays far too many games and FAR FAR too much chalk in baseball.
His own self proclaimed record is horrible in term of units compared to win\loss record.
PLUS.... His choice of screen name makes him an obvious joke from the get-go.
Never saw any ONE individual that was worth fading solely by themselves.
The best way I have found to FADE, is to a FADE a GROUP of average at best handicappers.
If you find 5-6 handicappers like this and they are all on the same game, you will have a very hard time losing with proper money management.
The best way I have found to FADE, is to a FADE a GROUP of average at best handicappers.
If you find 5-6 handicappers like this and they are all on the same game, you will have a very hard time losing with proper money management.
fading does NOT exist. It is so stupid when people actually believe this crap. Every human being will pick very very close to 50% in their lifetime if they make a large number of plays in their lifetime. Even the biggest losers in the world will win half their games. The only reason why the big losers go broke is because they don't respect the lines and play into big favs of -260, when the line is -220, or lay -9.5 with the lakers, when they could have gotten a -8.5. It's those players that go broke. They don't go broke because they can't pick em.. These guys don't respect the lines.
The best thing to do is just bet the best number you can find at each book and you will do ok. If they bump their fav, take dog. If they lower the fav, take the fav. Let the book make your pick, not you..
There's your best fade..
The best thing to do is just bet the best number you can find at each book and you will do ok. If they bump their fav, take dog. If they lower the fav, take the fav. Let the book make your pick, not you..
There's your best fade..
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by sick gambler:
fading does NOT exist. It is so stupid when people actually believe this crap. Every human being will pick very very close to 50% in their lifetime if they make a large number of plays in their lifetime. Even the biggest losers in the world will win half their games. The only reason why the big losers go broke is because they don't respect the lines and play into big favs of -260, when the line is -220, or lay -9.5 with the lakers, when they could have gotten a -8.5. It's those players that go broke. They don't go broke because they can't pick em.. These guys don't respect the lines.
The best thing to do is just bet the best number you can find at each book and you will do ok. If they bump their fav, take dog. If they lower the fav, take the fav. Let the book make your pick, not you..
There's your best fade..<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Very correct indeed!
Would have said the samething, but I knew you would come around in awhile and say it.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE INDIVIDUALS THAT CAN HIT 52-54% BY JUST GETTING AN AVERAGE NUMBER.
PS- However, I know you agree with me also on the MULTIPLE fading concept that I explained in a previous post in this thread.
In a way, it actually goes with what we are saying about getting the best number........more times than not that is the case anyway.........especially in the NFL.
fading does NOT exist. It is so stupid when people actually believe this crap. Every human being will pick very very close to 50% in their lifetime if they make a large number of plays in their lifetime. Even the biggest losers in the world will win half their games. The only reason why the big losers go broke is because they don't respect the lines and play into big favs of -260, when the line is -220, or lay -9.5 with the lakers, when they could have gotten a -8.5. It's those players that go broke. They don't go broke because they can't pick em.. These guys don't respect the lines.
The best thing to do is just bet the best number you can find at each book and you will do ok. If they bump their fav, take dog. If they lower the fav, take the fav. Let the book make your pick, not you..
There's your best fade..<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Very correct indeed!
Would have said the samething, but I knew you would come around in awhile and say it.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE INDIVIDUALS THAT CAN HIT 52-54% BY JUST GETTING AN AVERAGE NUMBER.
PS- However, I know you agree with me also on the MULTIPLE fading concept that I explained in a previous post in this thread.
In a way, it actually goes with what we are saying about getting the best number........more times than not that is the case anyway.........especially in the NFL.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> The only reason why the big losers go broke is because they don't respect the lines and play into big favs of -260, when the line is -220, or lay -9.5 with the lakers, when they could have gotten a -8.5. It's those players that go broke. They don't go broke because they can't pick em.. These guys don't respect the lines.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
absulutely correct, IMHO the thing that distinguishes the winners from losers (for the most part) is exactly what sick mentioned above....
additionally, Money management, controlling emotions, not chasing are also critical to becoming succesful....
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
absulutely correct, IMHO the thing that distinguishes the winners from losers (for the most part) is exactly what sick mentioned above....
additionally, Money management, controlling emotions, not chasing are also critical to becoming succesful....
Well, I have to disagree with you both. I am talking epecially baseball here. (I am in agreement in most ways. But I do feel some people are good fades)
Yes.. If people were forced to pick every game maybe they would come close to 50% over time.
But... They don't pick every game.
What they do is this... They ALWAYS look at the big popular favorites, ALWAYS chase moves and pay horrible chalk, and ALWAYS end up with far too many plays.
There ARE players who, when given the choice of the board, WILL very often choose the least profitable games to play. (For the above reasons)
I believe this to be accurate.
THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS.....
On this board I am fully convinced that lots of the posters ARE NOT putting any real dough on the plays they post and their opinion is worthless. Fade or follow, many of these posters are just snot nosed little kids who are just jerking off with the computer.
Yes.. If people were forced to pick every game maybe they would come close to 50% over time.
But... They don't pick every game.
What they do is this... They ALWAYS look at the big popular favorites, ALWAYS chase moves and pay horrible chalk, and ALWAYS end up with far too many plays.
There ARE players who, when given the choice of the board, WILL very often choose the least profitable games to play. (For the above reasons)
I believe this to be accurate.
THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS.....
On this board I am fully convinced that lots of the posters ARE NOT putting any real dough on the plays they post and their opinion is worthless. Fade or follow, many of these posters are just snot nosed little kids who are just jerking off with the computer.
I never fade anymore. you have no idea when this kid is going to 1.start using someone else's plays. 2.change his capping methods and 3.do they actually have any money on it.
following a hot capper is much more profitable if you dont know enough about sports handicapping to come up with your own plays. finding two white hot cappers convincingly on the same play is automatic dont even have to watch. smile at the balance in the morning its almost that automatic to me.
ive tried everything. in short fading just isnt a good idea. becuase if you fade and lose also it will pshycoligically kill you, as you look at a square guy and start thinking he is smarter than you for having the right side.
following a hot capper is much more profitable if you dont know enough about sports handicapping to come up with your own plays. finding two white hot cappers convincingly on the same play is automatic dont even have to watch. smile at the balance in the morning its almost that automatic to me.
ive tried everything. in short fading just isnt a good idea. becuase if you fade and lose also it will pshycoligically kill you, as you look at a square guy and start thinking he is smarter than you for having the right side.
the boys that hit 54-58% are the boys who end up getting the better of the line on each game.
For example. Lakers open up at -8.5 at noon. They bet it, and it closes at -10.5. They do this consistently on their games. These are the boys who are going to end up hitting 58% consistently come hell or high water.
Then you have the boys who are clueless, the beantownjims of the world. The boys who just like a game, have one book to play with, don't shop for numbers and just bet for the sake of betting because they love a team and they love the favs. They will bet Lakers at -8.5 in the morning, and it will close at -7. These are the boys that will hit 44-48%. So you cannot really fade em because you will not have the same line as them. If you fade them and they hit 44% lifetime, you will still only hit 50% at the right number. Just because they hit 44% does not make em a good fade.
Then you have your regular guys who will consistently hit 50% in their lifetime and just lose the juice and get commissioned to death over a long period of time..
For example. Lakers open up at -8.5 at noon. They bet it, and it closes at -10.5. They do this consistently on their games. These are the boys who are going to end up hitting 58% consistently come hell or high water.
Then you have the boys who are clueless, the beantownjims of the world. The boys who just like a game, have one book to play with, don't shop for numbers and just bet for the sake of betting because they love a team and they love the favs. They will bet Lakers at -8.5 in the morning, and it will close at -7. These are the boys that will hit 44-48%. So you cannot really fade em because you will not have the same line as them. If you fade them and they hit 44% lifetime, you will still only hit 50% at the right number. Just because they hit 44% does not make em a good fade.
Then you have your regular guys who will consistently hit 50% in their lifetime and just lose the juice and get commissioned to death over a long period of time..
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Packer:
many of these posters are just snot nosed little kids who are just jerking off with the computer.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Damn busted.......
Packer I have to disagree with you here...most snot nose kids would not waste their time posting on this site just to post, too much porn and free music downloads to waste the days on therx.com...IMO
many of these posters are just snot nosed little kids who are just jerking off with the computer.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Damn busted.......
Packer I have to disagree with you here...most snot nose kids would not waste their time posting on this site just to post, too much porn and free music downloads to waste the days on therx.com...IMO
