Serious Addiction Week 4 17-12 +12.8 units

[seriousaddiction]

Had a great week and lost 12 units on SMU team total. I dont regret it as if they played again this week in the same situation I would be all over it. In my capping of it I predicted Levi would get beat up and taken out but I also predicted we would see WILLIS which we unfortunately did not. Anyways. Hit my bigger plays with exception of that . 3-0 on 3 unit plays. On to next week



Looking at a bunch of games that I like.

Games Include...Miss St, Tennessee, Air Force, Navy, Arizona State, Texas AM and a few others...have a lot of capping to do and will most likely post a play or two by the end of the day. This is a week long process and winning takes time. I'll post my plays with analysis this week to save the "Why do you like this game" questions.:toast:

 

[seriousaddiction]

North Carolina -1 2 units


First play of the week is UNC over VT. I have watched both teams play all of their games this year and I have come to a few conclusions. Virginia Tech is going to struggle this year in the ACC. I see them losing to UNC, BC, FLA ST and maybe even @ Miami. Good thing for them though is the fact that they dont have to deal with Clemson or Wake. This Virginia Tech teams biggest problem is their inability to score. If they do score it's because their defense put them in a position to do so. On the other hand I have watched UNC and after being very unimpressed with their game against McNeese St they caught my attention when they absolutely crushed Rutgers on their own field. Im gonna be on UNC this week for a few reasons. They know this is their chance to get the country's attention by beating up on Va Tech. If they win this game they are going to be sky high heading into the meat of their schedule. I know it is very early but this IMO is the biggest game in UNC football history to date. If they get this win they will have all the confidence they need to compete in a mediocre at best ACC. Their road ACC games consist of Maryland, Virginia, Miami and Duke and these are all very winnable games. They get Va Tech, BC and Georgia Tech at home this year. This team is very capable of competing in the ACC and maybe even winning it. I look for UNC to keep on doing what they have been doing all year and giving Va Tech heavy doses of Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate. If Yates can get them the ball early and often I think this game will be another Rutgers type matchup. UNC beat up on Rutgers because they made Teal turn the ball over. Glennon for Va Tech has looked terrible (and thats being easy on him) this year and this is one thing UNC has been doing very well all year. Capitalizing on turnovers. Teams look to be about even from watching both of them play. Va Tech has a slight defensive advantage while UNC has a slight offensive advantage. Line puts the game pretty much even so I will play on a HOME UNC team in front of a huge crowd @ Kenan Memorial. UNC fans finally have something to cheer about other than the Basketball teams. Say UNC wins this one 27-24

 

[ICC]

ope:

Me too!!

 

[Right-Side]

Good analysis, I agree with the pick. Va-tech is living off reputation this year. GL

 

[seriousaddiction]

Virginia Tech this year reminds me a lot of the Yankees. People will be playing the name on the jersey and not looking at the lines. They will be an overvalued team all year long and the public will continue to hammer them because of the reputation they have had in previous years. The ACC is down this year and UNC knows they have a real shot at competing in it this year. The ACC wont be down long so if there is a year for them to make noise this is it. Lets see if they can put 60,000 in Kenan Memorial for a HUGGGGE game this weekend

 

[ICC]

"UNC is a basketball school. Virginia Tech blocks a ton of punts and had Michael Vick. I cant believe this team is getting points. Ill hammer it!"

 

[seriousaddiction]

Michigan State -8 2 units


This is a team that has owned Notre Dame as of late and I don't see anything different coming out of this game. This line will rise so I advise getting it as early as possible. Opened last night at 7 and I have seen it at a few places as high as 8.5 and even 9. Javon Ringer is in the drivers seat for the Heisman in this young college football season. He's got 500 yards and 9 touchdowns already and has looked unstoppable. I just see this game as being a game that ND cannot score enough to hang with the high octane offense of Michigan State. ND struggled big time against San Diego St and only won last week because Michigan gave them the game. There were more an abundance of bad decisions made by Michigan and they made ND look a lot better than they actually are. Everyone was talking about last weeks game being ND's biggest game of the year and determining how their season was going to go but I disagree. I think this is the week that will determine their season. If they come out of East Lansing with a win they are going to ride momentum into a bowl game and a decent season but I just do not see this happening. Michigan State has a way better running game, better athletes, home field advantage. The only thing that will keep this game close is if Michigan State decides to pass the ball. Hoyer has been god awful and is completing 44% of his passes. Look for heavy doses of Ringer and a double digit win by MSU. Their defense has looked much better after giving up 38 points to CAL and MSU is another one of those teams that no one expected much out of and can make a lot of noise. Road games include Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern. They have Iowa , Wisconsin, Purdue and Ohio State in their own backyard and Im gonna make a very bold prediction and say the big 10 title will be decided on November 22nd when Michigan State travels to Penn State. A solid running game always , always brings you to the forefront and they have the best back in the country (right now). Im sure Ringer will fade but he will continue to get heisman like numbers against ND.

 

[seriousaddiction]

"UNC is a basketball school. Virginia Tech blocks a ton of punts and had Michael Vick. I cant believe this team is getting points. Ill hammer it!"

Didn't you just say "me too" after I posted UNC.

UNC is a basketball school but that doesn't mean much. Va Tech had Mike Vick yes but what the hell does that mean????? Syracuse had Donovan McNabb...does that mean you should bet on them this week

 

[ICC]

The quote was kind of making a joke about what Joe Public would tihnk when they saw the line. It was a joke sort of. Sorry. Im on them too.

 

[mlmleads]

North Carolina -1 2 units


First play of the week is UNC over VT. I have watched both teams play all of their games this year and I have come to a few conclusions. Virginia Tech is going to struggle this year in the ACC. I see them losing to UNC, BC, FLA ST and maybe even @ Miami. Good thing for them though is the fact that they dont have to deal with Clemson or Wake. This Virginia Tech teams biggest problem is their inability to score. If they do score it's because their defense put them in a position to do so. On the other hand I have watched UNC and after being very unimpressed with their game against McNeese St they caught my attention when they absolutely crushed Rutgers on their own field. Im gonna be on UNC this week for a few reasons. They know this is their chance to get the country's attention by beating up on Va Tech. If they win this game they are going to be sky high heading into the meat of their schedule. I know it is very early but this IMO is the biggest game in UNC football history to date. If they get this win they will have all the confidence they need to compete in a mediocre at best ACC. Their road ACC games consist of Maryland, Virginia, Miami and Duke and these are all very winnable games. They get Va Tech, BC and Georgia Tech at home this year. This team is very capable of competing in the ACC and maybe even winning it. I look for UNC to keep on doing what they have been doing all year and giving Va Tech heavy doses of Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate. If Yates can get them the ball early and often I think this game will be another Rutgers type matchup. UNC beat up on Rutgers because they made Teal turn the ball over. Glennon for Va Tech has looked terrible (and thats being easy on him) this year and this is one thing UNC has been doing very well all year. Capitalizing on turnovers. Teams look to be about even from watching both of them play. Va Tech has a slight defensive advantage while UNC has a slight offensive advantage. Line puts the game pretty much even so I will play on a HOME UNC team in front of a huge crowd @ Kenan Memorial. UNC fans finally have something to cheer about other than the Basketball teams. Say UNC wins this one 27-24

Love the write up and couldn't agree with you more. Not sure who missed UNC v Rutgers but if there is heavy action coming in on VT shouldn't this line get better?

 

[homedawg]

I wish Paulus would start at qb. what's that say about cuse football. we let the 2nd best qb in central new york history (1st was his older brother) get away to be back up at unc. makes me wanna puke.

GL

 

[seriousaddiction]

no chance Paulus gets in there this year...Yates is doing great. I wish Paulus went to Cuse . Thats sad that we couldn't land either of them and they spend 18 yrs of their lives 5 miles from the dome???

 

[seriousaddiction]

The quote was kind of making a joke about what Joe Public would tihnk when they saw the line. It was a joke sort of. Sorry. Im on them too.

I figured it had to be a joke because if it wasnt it would of been one of top 5 most ignorant things I have ever heard on this site.

You are the right side if you are on UNC IMO

 

[KOOPSTAKNICCA]

SA, agree with the Mich St writeup. I grabbed 8.5 as I believe this number will climb this week. GL :toast:

 

[seriousaddiction]

@ work now= I get some free time to cap and come up with my analysis. Should have another write up or two complete by nights end. Looking at Tenn, Miss St, Navy, Auburn, Fla St and a few others currently.

 

[OAKAS]

Really like both selections, sa.

Good luck.

 

[krk1030]

Don't know about UNC. They had problems against MCNEESE ST @ home and beat a Rutgers team that seems lost.

 

[mmoody12]

Don't know about UNC. They had problems against MCNEESE ST @ home and beat a Rutgers team that seems lost.

They didn't have problems. They jumped up 14-0 quick and then the game got delayed for 2hrs. After 2 hrs of being jacked up, it's easy to come out flat. No delay=blowout

 

[SoonerBS]

SA, just now figured out how to get back on this forum and I couldn't find the thread from last week where you said someone would have to be crazy to bet Texas Tech over -37 . . . . just wanted to say you were right

I had originall bought a point on the game and had them at -34.5, but whenever I heard the field was completely under water Friday morning, I bought off the bet at SMU +36.5. The game of course fell on 36 and I ended up middling the bet. It was all luck . . . . especially whenever you consider that Tech was on the 2 yard line and trying to score again whenever they ran out of time.

 

[seriousaddiction]

no problem sooner...should of been a lot closer too...turnovers really fucked SMU