Corinthians -1.25 (vs Coritiba) +101 4units
They are on a roll and don’t think that this is a letdown spot after last weeks win vs Atletico MG. They will want to secure their title as early as possible and have been scoring in bunches while keeping a clean sheet in many contests recently. Won't go into detail much, george77 has pointed out more than once their recent strong performances and how they roll. Same starting formation like last week, only change will be Elias coming back after missing last game due to being suspended.
Coritiba will get their best striker back after suspension, but are missing a key defender, have been playing horrific lately, the coaching change this week cost them a day of practice and the team seems to have quit after having not been paid, paid only part of their salaries or been paid late for several weeks/months. Keirrison even demanded to be left of their roster last week because he hasn’t been paid for several months and had even to pay for his last knee surgery out of his own pocket…Nobody knows, if & how this affects players performance, but based on the last few games, this team pretty much packed it in.
Even motivation aside, their defense has been terrible and Corinthians should score at least 2-3 here, plus they barely had any scoring opportunities in their last few games, just not much movement, very static offense and easy to defend.
Figueirense vs Atletico MG under 2.5 -125 3units
Since the league went on hold for a week due to the world cup qualification matches in October, Figueirense has struggled a bit offensively, while being strong defensively: Over that stretch they finally got most of their key pieces back and could field more or less their strongest formation for most part. They beat a dysfunctional Flamengo team 3-0, then lost 0-1 @Joinville, scoreless tie vs Santos and 1-1 @Coritiba. Tomorrow they will be without OM Yago and striker Dudu. Dudu scored the final goal vs Flamengo, late goal in the 89th minute. Yago scored the tying goal last week @Coritiba. Especially Yago is an important part for their offense.
Their defense has been really good, last week they got their captain and centre back Marquinhos back after being injured for almost 2 months. He promptly went on to play a very good game with his fellow centre back, but commited an individual error that led to Coritibas first & only goal. Lack of playing time I guess, but should be less of a problem this week.
Atletico went over in their last 8 games, but always struggled vs Figueirense in their most recent matches: They beat FIG at home 1-0 in league play, but goal was scored by penalty kick. They also met during Copa do Brasil, where Atletico managed to tie their home game due to a late goal in the 93rd minute, then had to play a man down for 55min in the 2nd leg @Figueirense and lost 2-1, FIG scoring the winning goal in the 90th min.
Plus if you take a closer look at this 8 game over streak, it's not all that black & white: Last week vs Corinthians the game went for 70min without any goals before Atletico had to open up their defense because they needed a win since a draw wouldn't do them any good. Ponte Preta scored their lone goal in the 2-1 defeat in the 91st min. Atletico lost 4-1 @Recife, but were trailing after 7min due to a goal scored after a set piece and had a player sent off after ˜15min already....in the 2-1 win vs Inter they needed a penalty to finally score the 1st goal...and when they beat a bad Coritiba team 3-0, the last goal also was scored by penalty kick and late (85th min).
Add in the bad shape of the playing surface in Florianopolis because of the constant heavy rain (even though it was dry on Friday, more rain expected for the weekend) and this adds up more like a low scoring affair. Especially since FIGs defense is extremely good defending high balls/the aerial game, while their top striker Clayton (rather small, technically skilled, quick/agile) isn't really built for that type of game, so both things add towards the under.
Weather is the same reason why I stay away from betting Santos @Joinville.
Chapecoense +0.5 (@Fluminense) -102 3.5units
Chapeco needs points to secure their spot in Serie A and have been playing better than the standings indicate. Playing Copa Sudamericana hurt them during league play, but recently their performances were very good and now they had some time to rest, too. 2-3-0 last 5 and even the losses before that came @Recife, one of the strongest home teams, and vs Cruzeiro, 6-5-1 under their new coach, vs strong competition and in part can be explained/excused by those games being sandwiched in between their Copa matches in Paraguay.
They are almost at full strength, have beaten Flu at home earlier this year (due to some officiating help some might argue) and 2/2 last season. Their attack is built on speed, which bodes well for road games in general and especially vs a defense like Flu. Flu will also be without key defensive midfielder Pierre, which should open up space in the transition game for Chapecoense if they manage to create turnovers. Plus Flu is without their top striker and key attacker Fred and have nothing to play for really: After losing their Copa do Brasil semi-final vs Palmeiras (penalty shootout), their season is pretty much over since they can't qualify for Copa Libertadores and won't get close to the relegation spots.
They are on a roll and don’t think that this is a letdown spot after last weeks win vs Atletico MG. They will want to secure their title as early as possible and have been scoring in bunches while keeping a clean sheet in many contests recently. Won't go into detail much, george77 has pointed out more than once their recent strong performances and how they roll. Same starting formation like last week, only change will be Elias coming back after missing last game due to being suspended.
Coritiba will get their best striker back after suspension, but are missing a key defender, have been playing horrific lately, the coaching change this week cost them a day of practice and the team seems to have quit after having not been paid, paid only part of their salaries or been paid late for several weeks/months. Keirrison even demanded to be left of their roster last week because he hasn’t been paid for several months and had even to pay for his last knee surgery out of his own pocket…Nobody knows, if & how this affects players performance, but based on the last few games, this team pretty much packed it in.
Even motivation aside, their defense has been terrible and Corinthians should score at least 2-3 here, plus they barely had any scoring opportunities in their last few games, just not much movement, very static offense and easy to defend.
Figueirense vs Atletico MG under 2.5 -125 3units
Since the league went on hold for a week due to the world cup qualification matches in October, Figueirense has struggled a bit offensively, while being strong defensively: Over that stretch they finally got most of their key pieces back and could field more or less their strongest formation for most part. They beat a dysfunctional Flamengo team 3-0, then lost 0-1 @Joinville, scoreless tie vs Santos and 1-1 @Coritiba. Tomorrow they will be without OM Yago and striker Dudu. Dudu scored the final goal vs Flamengo, late goal in the 89th minute. Yago scored the tying goal last week @Coritiba. Especially Yago is an important part for their offense.
Their defense has been really good, last week they got their captain and centre back Marquinhos back after being injured for almost 2 months. He promptly went on to play a very good game with his fellow centre back, but commited an individual error that led to Coritibas first & only goal. Lack of playing time I guess, but should be less of a problem this week.
Atletico went over in their last 8 games, but always struggled vs Figueirense in their most recent matches: They beat FIG at home 1-0 in league play, but goal was scored by penalty kick. They also met during Copa do Brasil, where Atletico managed to tie their home game due to a late goal in the 93rd minute, then had to play a man down for 55min in the 2nd leg @Figueirense and lost 2-1, FIG scoring the winning goal in the 90th min.
Plus if you take a closer look at this 8 game over streak, it's not all that black & white: Last week vs Corinthians the game went for 70min without any goals before Atletico had to open up their defense because they needed a win since a draw wouldn't do them any good. Ponte Preta scored their lone goal in the 2-1 defeat in the 91st min. Atletico lost 4-1 @Recife, but were trailing after 7min due to a goal scored after a set piece and had a player sent off after ˜15min already....in the 2-1 win vs Inter they needed a penalty to finally score the 1st goal...and when they beat a bad Coritiba team 3-0, the last goal also was scored by penalty kick and late (85th min).
Add in the bad shape of the playing surface in Florianopolis because of the constant heavy rain (even though it was dry on Friday, more rain expected for the weekend) and this adds up more like a low scoring affair. Especially since FIGs defense is extremely good defending high balls/the aerial game, while their top striker Clayton (rather small, technically skilled, quick/agile) isn't really built for that type of game, so both things add towards the under.
Weather is the same reason why I stay away from betting Santos @Joinville.
Chapecoense +0.5 (@Fluminense) -102 3.5units
Chapeco needs points to secure their spot in Serie A and have been playing better than the standings indicate. Playing Copa Sudamericana hurt them during league play, but recently their performances were very good and now they had some time to rest, too. 2-3-0 last 5 and even the losses before that came @Recife, one of the strongest home teams, and vs Cruzeiro, 6-5-1 under their new coach, vs strong competition and in part can be explained/excused by those games being sandwiched in between their Copa matches in Paraguay.
They are almost at full strength, have beaten Flu at home earlier this year (due to some officiating help some might argue) and 2/2 last season. Their attack is built on speed, which bodes well for road games in general and especially vs a defense like Flu. Flu will also be without key defensive midfielder Pierre, which should open up space in the transition game for Chapecoense if they manage to create turnovers. Plus Flu is without their top striker and key attacker Fred and have nothing to play for really: After losing their Copa do Brasil semi-final vs Palmeiras (penalty shootout), their season is pretty much over since they can't qualify for Copa Libertadores and won't get close to the relegation spots.
hno: --> -2 
--> +3.43
