Looked at a few games this morning a saw a few things I liked. After going 3-0 last night, I feel pretty good, but will keep my confidence in check, as gambling can be very humbling at times. Haven't locked anything in yet, but here are my initial thoughts.
S Fla +3.5/ DelBig 6'7" guard Corbett out for the season for Del. Losing 9 pts, 6 reb, 3 steals, and 3 blocks per game. So far this season, the Blue Hens have beaten who they should have beaten, and lost to who they should have lost to. S Fla seems to have the edge inside with two 6'11" centers, while Del has no one over 6'9". Offensive numbers are pretty much even. I like the fact that the Bulls played a good NJIT team close, and beat a consistant Albany team SU. Leaning towards S Fla, but not sure it will make the final card yet.
W. Mich +6/ J Mad
Slight edge in offensive #s goes to J Mad, but those #s are pretty skewed by their cupcake opponents thusfar. Duke have lost to two cupcakes in Oral Roberts and UT Martin. W Mich is definitely a bigger squad with more versatility. They've got a few small forwards who can also play guard. I haven't seen this team play, but I don't think they are very talented based on who've they've lost to so far. Hard to back either team here.
N Tex +15/ Tex Arl
So far this year, Tex Arl has been impressive with solid wins at Memphis and Ohio St. But they haven't beaten the cupcake opponents by 15. The Mean Green of N. Tex are hitting 50% from the field and 36% from the arc. They've blown out their super cupcake opponents, and have kept it relatively close against superior squads. Also, they've got the size and width to bang inside. 15 pts is a lot for the Mavericks to cover. Most likely taking N Tex here, but no final judgement yet.
Belmont+8/ Valpo
Only injury here is Valpo 7'1" freshman center Smits, who hasn't played yet this year. Nice wins @ Ore St and Rhode Island, also blowout win over a decent Iona team and dd win vs IPFW. But Belmont also has an impressive win @ Marquette, and has kept it relatively close @ ASU and Evansville. Slight lean towards Belmont. The old me would have wagered this game. Taking a pass.
Kentucky -5.5/ UCLA
I hate games like this. Kentucky is obviously great. But a program like UCLA always can get good recruits. Unfortunately for the Bruins, they haven't put it together yet this year. They have beat who they were supposed to, but against any team with a backbone, they have folded. I try not to take part in square bets like this, but in this case I don't see it any other way. Kentucky will probably make the final card.
UL Laf -2/ UL Monroe
I don't see much of an edge to either team here. UL Laf #s are inflated due to their schedule. No surprises with UL Mon. Lean towards home court and the points. I'm probably missing something, if anyone can find anything?
LBS +6.5/ Col St
First thing that comes to mind is altitude. I moved out to Col for a short time earlier in my life and remember getting winded very easily. The question is, does LBS have the depth to counteract this natural home field advantage. The Rams have a nice win @ N Iowa, and vs a tough Oakland team on a neutral court. The 49ers have a recent history of being a tough team to beat. They have had a pretty tough schedule so far, and have held their own for the most part. Leaning towards the road team again with the points. Might make the final card.
USC -2.5/ Cal SB
My first thought on this game was remember watching USC's game the other day. They just seemed so sloppy handling the rock. 4 of 5 of SB's games have been on the road, keeping it close at ASU fwiw. USC obviously has more recruiting power, and have an impressive win over New Mexico, a team I have been watching closely this year. Also splitting two games vs a tough Monmouth squad, and beating an over rated (at the time) Wichita St team. Heavy lean on USC here, but will think about it some more.
S Fla +3.5/ DelBig 6'7" guard Corbett out for the season for Del. Losing 9 pts, 6 reb, 3 steals, and 3 blocks per game. So far this season, the Blue Hens have beaten who they should have beaten, and lost to who they should have lost to. S Fla seems to have the edge inside with two 6'11" centers, while Del has no one over 6'9". Offensive numbers are pretty much even. I like the fact that the Bulls played a good NJIT team close, and beat a consistant Albany team SU. Leaning towards S Fla, but not sure it will make the final card yet.
W. Mich +6/ J Mad
Slight edge in offensive #s goes to J Mad, but those #s are pretty skewed by their cupcake opponents thusfar. Duke have lost to two cupcakes in Oral Roberts and UT Martin. W Mich is definitely a bigger squad with more versatility. They've got a few small forwards who can also play guard. I haven't seen this team play, but I don't think they are very talented based on who've they've lost to so far. Hard to back either team here.
N Tex +15/ Tex Arl
So far this year, Tex Arl has been impressive with solid wins at Memphis and Ohio St. But they haven't beaten the cupcake opponents by 15. The Mean Green of N. Tex are hitting 50% from the field and 36% from the arc. They've blown out their super cupcake opponents, and have kept it relatively close against superior squads. Also, they've got the size and width to bang inside. 15 pts is a lot for the Mavericks to cover. Most likely taking N Tex here, but no final judgement yet.
Belmont+8/ Valpo
Only injury here is Valpo 7'1" freshman center Smits, who hasn't played yet this year. Nice wins @ Ore St and Rhode Island, also blowout win over a decent Iona team and dd win vs IPFW. But Belmont also has an impressive win @ Marquette, and has kept it relatively close @ ASU and Evansville. Slight lean towards Belmont. The old me would have wagered this game. Taking a pass.
Kentucky -5.5/ UCLA
I hate games like this. Kentucky is obviously great. But a program like UCLA always can get good recruits. Unfortunately for the Bruins, they haven't put it together yet this year. They have beat who they were supposed to, but against any team with a backbone, they have folded. I try not to take part in square bets like this, but in this case I don't see it any other way. Kentucky will probably make the final card.
UL Laf -2/ UL Monroe
I don't see much of an edge to either team here. UL Laf #s are inflated due to their schedule. No surprises with UL Mon. Lean towards home court and the points. I'm probably missing something, if anyone can find anything?
LBS +6.5/ Col St
First thing that comes to mind is altitude. I moved out to Col for a short time earlier in my life and remember getting winded very easily. The question is, does LBS have the depth to counteract this natural home field advantage. The Rams have a nice win @ N Iowa, and vs a tough Oakland team on a neutral court. The 49ers have a recent history of being a tough team to beat. They have had a pretty tough schedule so far, and have held their own for the most part. Leaning towards the road team again with the points. Might make the final card.
USC -2.5/ Cal SB
My first thought on this game was remember watching USC's game the other day. They just seemed so sloppy handling the rock. 4 of 5 of SB's games have been on the road, keeping it close at ASU fwiw. USC obviously has more recruiting power, and have an impressive win over New Mexico, a team I have been watching closely this year. Also splitting two games vs a tough Monmouth squad, and beating an over rated (at the time) Wichita St team. Heavy lean on USC here, but will think about it some more.
