I didn't say the market couldn't crash, I said a crash doesn't mean the next great depression. We've had substantial stock market crashes in 87 & 2000 and we has a substantial real estate bust in the late 80's, we obviously survived and prospered after those events.
I said it would take a catastrophic event to cause the next great depression.
One homebuilder on the warpath to zero. More to come. Spilling into all aspects of the housing market now.
Beazer Homes (BZH - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) plunged 40% Wednesday on market rumors that the homebuilder would file for bankruptcy.
Several market sources say they have heard the rumor, but said they had no information to verify it.
Beazer could not be reached for immediate comment. The stock was trading down $5.09 to $8.90.
Beazer Homes (BZH - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) plunged 40% Wednesday on market rumors that the homebuilder would file for bankruptcy.
Several market sources say they have heard the rumor, but said they had no information to verify it.
Beazer could not be reached for immediate comment. The stock was trading down $5.09 to $8.90.
<TABLE class=qtbl><THEAD><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 50%">Name</TD><TD class=tr>Level</TD><TD class=tr>Change</TD><TD class=tr>% Change</TD><TD class=tr>Chart</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR><TD>DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>13,362.37</TD><TD class=tr>+150.38</TD><TD class=tr>+1.14%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>5,045.97</TD><TD class=tr>+15.95</TD><TD class=tr>+0.32%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>DOW JONES UTILITIES INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>489.46</TD><TD class=tr>+10.10</TD><TD class=tr>+2.11%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>S&P 500 INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>1,465.81</TD><TD class=tr>+10.54</TD><TD class=tr>+0.72%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>S&P 100 INDEX,RTH</TD><TD class=tr>681.85</TD><TD class=tr>+6.10</TD><TD class=tr>+0.90%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>858.65</TD><TD class=tr>+2.32</TD><TD class=tr>+0.27%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>NASDAQ-100 (DRM)</TD><TD class=tr>1,945.08</TD><TD class=tr>+13.02</TD><TD class=tr>+0.67%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>NASDAQ COMPOSITE</TD><TD class=tr>2,553.87</TD><TD class=tr>+7.60</TD><TD class=tr>+0.30%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>COMPOSITE INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>2,255.80</TD><TD class=tr>-14.86</TD><TD class=tr>-0.65%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX (NEW METHODOLOGY)</TD><TD class=tr>9,573.05</TD><TD class=tr>+18.55</TD><TD class=tr>+0.19%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>RUSSELL 1000 INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>796.93</TD><TD class=tr>+4.82</TD><TD class=tr>+0.61%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>RUSSELL 2000 INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>777.92</TD><TD class=tr>+1.80</TD><TD class=tr>+0.23%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>S&P BARRA VALUE INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>783.39</TD><TD class=tr>+5.18</TD><TD class=tr>+0.67%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>S&P BARRA GROWTH INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>680.25</TD><TD class=tr>+5.29</TD><TD class=tr>+0.78%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Thats why you dont get to count your cash till the game is OVER.
</TD></TR><TR><TD>DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>5,045.97</TD><TD class=tr>+15.95</TD><TD class=tr>+0.32%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>DOW JONES UTILITIES INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>489.46</TD><TD class=tr>+10.10</TD><TD class=tr>+2.11%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>S&P 500 INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>1,465.81</TD><TD class=tr>+10.54</TD><TD class=tr>+0.72%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>S&P 100 INDEX,RTH</TD><TD class=tr>681.85</TD><TD class=tr>+6.10</TD><TD class=tr>+0.90%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>858.65</TD><TD class=tr>+2.32</TD><TD class=tr>+0.27%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>NASDAQ-100 (DRM)</TD><TD class=tr>1,945.08</TD><TD class=tr>+13.02</TD><TD class=tr>+0.67%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>NASDAQ COMPOSITE</TD><TD class=tr>2,553.87</TD><TD class=tr>+7.60</TD><TD class=tr>+0.30%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>COMPOSITE INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>2,255.80</TD><TD class=tr>-14.86</TD><TD class=tr>-0.65%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX (NEW METHODOLOGY)</TD><TD class=tr>9,573.05</TD><TD class=tr>+18.55</TD><TD class=tr>+0.19%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>RUSSELL 1000 INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>796.93</TD><TD class=tr>+4.82</TD><TD class=tr>+0.61%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>RUSSELL 2000 INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>777.92</TD><TD class=tr>+1.80</TD><TD class=tr>+0.23%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>S&P BARRA VALUE INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>783.39</TD><TD class=tr>+5.18</TD><TD class=tr>+0.67%</TD><TD class=tr>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>S&P BARRA GROWTH INDEX</TD><TD class=tr>680.25</TD><TD class=tr>+5.29</TD><TD class=tr>+0.78%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Thats why you dont get to count your cash till the game is OVER.
Its been going on for months now (the subprime "crisis" correction) that is.The indecies will remain relatively stable.DJIA will be 14k+ (if not more)by the end of the year.Another month or so start bargain shopping for a big cap lender.Earnings,earnings,earnings will keep any sniff of a recession at a distance.
Theres simply not enough tied to the specifics of subprime lending to cause mass destruction (aka the big one).This would need to be compounded with some equally as damaging to have the effect your predicting.
Were past the half way point,however speculation and doomsdayers are running rampant.In fact this may prompt the fed to cut the rate and a big enough cut solves all these guys problems (and put all the major indecies thru the roof).If some of these guys get really cheap due to lack of federal assisitance look for oversea powerhouses to come in with open checkbooks.Either way get into one or two cheap in the coming months,theyll be there for the taking.
CF last week was a nice Monday flipper,this Monday try GME.
has nothing to do with terrorism. The spillage after 9/11 wasn't cause of the 9/11, it was mainly because because of economic conditions. Iraq ultimately postponed the coming economic disaster (they needed a war to keep our economy afloat as it was falling into a abyss, wars are great for the economy but not long drawn out ones, going into 9 trillion dollars debt on other countries dime) and in the end will make things worse for us. All in all disasters help the economy (hurricanes, earthquakes whatever) gives people a reason to be active, rebuild, and also wage stupid wars.
many hedge funds are going under due to the mortgage problems. These investment banks like goldman sachs are leveraged out the ass. As long as things are going up all is fine, but once things start falling in a drastic manner everybody is forced to sell and it all just snowballs on itself. Goldman Sachs is leveraged like 10 to 1 debt to equity, it currently trades as junk on the bond market. It's insane what's been going on out there. companies are in debt up to their eyeballs that they took on due to easy credit to either buy back their own stock or M&A activity. Once the party stops it stops in a major way.
Cant? Of course they can.
Personally dont think they will or need to but its an option and a powerful one.
BTW whos we white man? You make it seem like every sector (and individual company) under the sun is in trouble when in fact many ,many are thriving. Rate cut would simply expediate the housing/lending cycle which is nearing the half way point anyway.There are select businesses that will not survive the "crisis" but its not the economy thats drove them into the ground its bad leadership and business practices.Folks who dont do homework often miss the underlying hidden debt,manipulation of revenue,plain incompetence at the executive level...these are things bringing down the Bear Stearns of the world.
The international companies are doing okay for the time being because the international economies are booming and they are peddling their products where the local currency is strong while the US dollar is in the gutter as well as the US consumer up to this point has been sucking up whatever excesses they (the international countries that are growing at a unsustainable pace) have.
The world economies are very symbiotic right now. Very similiar to prior to the first depression. the Great depression wasn't an american event it was a global event. All economies crashed.
Also you really don't understand the fed, what they say and do has major repurcussion in telling the market their true feelings, a rate cut will signal hey guys we are in major trouble.
The world economies are very symbiotic right now. Very similiar to prior to the first depression. the Great depression wasn't an american event it was a global event. All economies crashed.
Also you really don't understand the fed, what they say and do has major repurcussion in telling the market their true feelings, a rate cut will signal hey guys we are in major trouble.
The party wont stop thats the thing....it never stops.
"Many hedge funds" failing will not sink the US economy or Wall St.Please remember that interest rates are still ridiculously reasonable.Inflation is tempered and the rate certainly not going UP anytime soon.If you dont think there are folks capable of bailing (financially and operationwise) these guys you mention out your crazy.Maybe even Uncle Sam.
Tiznow....I appreciate the gentlemanly back and forth here bro.I was just popping in to throw my MLB play in and I got a little sidetracked.Ive got folks waiting outside in pool (its about 95 here).
Last thing from me for tonite:
Great depression is an entirely other animal and no correlation can reasonably be made here.The markets and the overall atmosphere domestically and globally are like apples and oranges compared to the 1920s.
Have a nice night
