Sekrah's Saturday Leans w/analysis (Going 4-0!!)

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Here are my leans for this weekend. I'm going to narrow it down to 4 top notch selections and we're gonna go 4-0 Saturday!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Heavy Leans

Colorado -6.5 over Wyoming .. Extra days rest, Offense started clicking in 2nd half vs Toledo. Wyoming have absolutely no offense. Unless something unforeseen develops, this will be one of my four plays.


Moderate Leans

Ball St. +8.5 over Army .. Two awful offenses. I expect an ugly, tight game. Ball St. can only perform better than their most recent efforts.

Ball St./Army under 41 .. Wish I would jumped at the opening 44. There still may be value here.

Purdue -12.5 over Northern Illinois .. My neighbor came over earlier and said he liked Purdue as his one play this weekend but he's on the shelf from getting crushed in Horse Racing so he won't have any money on it, which boosts the likelihood Purdue covers.

Eastern Michigan +24 over Michigan .. Big let down spot here for UM. Ron English has EMU on the up and knows most of the Michigan players. EMU were 3-9 LY but returned 16 starters and an improved coaching staff.

Syracuse +3 over Northwestern .. Syracuse has two ATS wins and have been stout against the run. They are hungry for a win and this is a great spot for it.

Temple +30 over Penn State .. PSU just doesn't have the running game (O-line) to cover a big spread this year. They are a passing team and Joe puts it away when they get up 3 scores. I know Temple lost to Nova but they are returning 17 guys from last years 5-7 team(that had a pretty decent Run defense). PSU starting linebacker Navarro Bowman (All Big-Ten) is doubtful for the game.

East Carolina +7.5 over North Carolina .. Seems like too many points for a 9-5 team that is returning 16 of 22 starters from last year. North Carolina lost alot of offense and didn't look good vs UConn.. North Carolina has a gaggle of injuries as well. The Under 42 also looks like a potential play.

USC -19.5 over Washington .. This same USC O-Line mauled Washington last year. USC has ridiculously fast Monsters on defense. Jake Locker is above-average QB but he gets far more hype than he deserves just because he's a flower rising out of a pile of turds. If USC scores 45 I don't see how they don't cover.

Oregon -5 over Utah .. Oregon still hasn't played their best game yet and they are catching a Utes team that lost alot of juice from last years 13-0 team. Utah looked unconvincing in their first two games.

Notre Dame -10 over Michigan St. .. Clausen and the O-line have been superb. There's no doubt in my mind ND is on the up, and they just happened to catch another up team in Michigan last week.

Nebraska +5 over Va Tech .. Bo Pelini has a dangerous team here and Tyrod Taylor ain't much better than he was last year. The VT-Bama game wasn't nearly as bad as the scoreline suggested. Huskers have a nice balanced offense than can score points.

Auburn -7.5 over West Va. .. Auburn's offense is revamped and looking as impressive as they have in years! This is a revenge spot for Auburn while West Va are coming off a revenge win over East Carolina. Bill Stewart is awful ATS and is routinely outcoached.

Bowling Green/Marshall Over 51.5 .. Seems like a low total to me. Bowling Green's offense looks like it'll be good for 30+/game again in the MAC but they only returned 4 starters on defense. Both teams have competent QBs who can throw accurately when given time. I don't see much pass rush here.

Florida St +8 over BYU .. Team speed for FSU may prevail here. Tulane is awful and gifted BYU 4 turnovers. Got a good feeling that FSU is ready to fire after rolling in the mud with Jax St.

Cincinnati/Oregon St. Over 55 .. Between the two teams they returned 15 offensive starters and just 4 defensive starters from last years teams. Cincy's O has been high-gear. Both Cincy's Pike and OSU's Canfield are very capable QB's. Both teams rely on big play passing. Could see a shootout here.



Help me find these 4 wins!!

:toast:
 

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Here are my leans for this weekend. I'm going to narrow it down to 4 top notch selections and we're gonna go 4-0 Saturday!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Heavy Leans

Colorado -6.5 over Wyoming .. Extra days rest, Offense started clicking in 2nd half vs Toledo. Wyoming have absolutely no offense. Unless something unforeseen develops, this will be one of my four plays.


Moderate Leans

Ball St. +8.5 over Army .. Two awful offenses. I expect an ugly, tight game. Ball St. can only perform better than their most recent efforts.

Ball St./Army under 41 .. Wish I would jumped at the opening 44. There still may be value here.

Purdue -12.5 over Northern Illinois .. My neighbor came over earlier and said he liked Purdue as his one play this weekend but he's on the shelf from getting crushed in Horse Racing so he won't have any money on it, which boosts the likelihood Purdue covers.

Eastern Michigan +24 over Michigan .. Big let down spot here for UM. Ron English has EMU on the up and knows most of the Michigan players. EMU were 3-9 LY but returned 16 starters and an improved coaching staff.

Syracuse +3 over Northwestern .. Syracuse has two ATS wins and have been stout against the run. They are hungry for a win and this is a great spot for it.

Temple +30 over Penn State .. PSU just doesn't have the running game (O-line) to cover a big spread this year. They are a passing team and Joe puts it away when they get up 3 scores. I know Temple lost to Nova but they are returning 17 guys from last years 5-7 team(that had a pretty decent Run defense). PSU starting linebacker Navarro Bowman (All Big-Ten) is doubtful for the game.

East Carolina +7.5 over North Carolina .. Seems like too many points for a 9-5 team that is returning 16 of 22 starters from last year. North Carolina lost alot of offense and didn't look good vs UConn.. North Carolina has a gaggle of injuries as well. The Under 42 also looks like a potential play.

USC -19.5 over Washington .. This same USC O-Line mauled Washington last year. USC has ridiculously fast Monsters on defense. Jake Locker is above-average QB but he gets far more hype than he deserves just because he's a flower rising out of a pile of turds. If USC scores 45 I don't see how they don't cover.

Oregon -5 over Utah .. Oregon still hasn't played their best game yet and they are catching a Utes team that lost alot of juice from last years 13-0 team. Utah looked unconvincing in their first two games.

Notre Dame -10 over Michigan St. .. Clausen and the O-line have been superb. There's no doubt in my mind ND is on the up, and they just happened to catch another up team in Michigan last week.

Nebraska +5 over Va Tech .. Bo Pelini has a dangerous team here and Tyrod Taylor ain't much better than he was last year. The VT-Bama game wasn't nearly as bad as the scoreline suggested. Huskers have a nice balanced offense than can score points.

Auburn -7.5 over West Va. .. Auburn's offense is revamped and looking as impressive as they have in years! This is a revenge spot for Auburn while West Va are coming off a revenge win over East Carolina. Bill Stewart is awful ATS and is routinely outcoached.

Bowling Green/Marshall Over 51.5 .. Seems like a low total to me. Bowling Green's offense looks like it'll be good for 30+/game again in the MAC but they only returned 4 starters on defense. Both teams have competent QBs who can throw accurately when given time. I don't see much pass rush here.

Florida St +8 over BYU .. Team speed for FSU may prevail here. Tulane is awful and gifted BYU 4 turnovers. Got a good feeling that FSU is ready to fire after rolling in the mud with Jax St.

Cincinnati/Oregon St. Over 55 .. Between the two teams they returned 15 offensive starters and just 4 defensive starters from last years teams. Cincy's O has been high-gear. Both Cincy's Pike and OSU's Canfield are very capable QB's. Both teams rely on big play passing. Could see a shootout here.



Help me find these 4 wins!! :lol:

:toast:
I would love to go 4-0, better yet hit all those games! @):mad:
 

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I think Colorado over Wyoming is the right play, but I also know it's one I won't play. I'm 0-2 with the Buffs this early in the season and can't bring myself to give them the chance a three strikes in three weeks.

I'm a fan of the Over in that Nebraska/Va Tech game. Zac Lee is going to be a good one.
 

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Bumping East Carolina +7.5 up into the Heavy Leans category.

I really expect them to bounce back and be right into the mix to win this game. UNC don't have the explosiveness on offense that West Va had, or even App St. It took them 3+ quarters to figure out an inexperienced UConn defense.


ECU will make some plays, score a couple TDs and be in it.. I see a 21-17 type game, either way.
 

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Auburn -7 is being moved into the Heavy Leans category. I really think this is a new Auburn team. West Virginia is looks due for a beat down and I don't trust Bill Stewart to do anything right against a Top 25 calibre team.
 

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Temple +30 over Penn State .. PSU just doesn't have the running game (O-line) to cover a big spread this year. They are a passing team and Joe puts it away when they get up 3 scores. I know Temple lost to Nova but they are returning 17 guys from last years 5-7 team(that had a pretty decent Run defense). PSU starting linebacker Navarro Bowman (All Big-Ten) is doubtful for the game.

this makes absolutely no sense here. you say you know they lost to nova but they are returning 17 guys last year that had a good run defense. If they lost to nova does it matter how many they return?@)
 

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This Cincinnati offense would put a smile on June Jones face .. reminds me of how they used to run it down on the Big Island
 

Life is Good
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Purdue -12.5 over Northern Illinois .. My neighbor came over earlier and said he liked Purdue as his one play this weekend but he's on the shelf from getting crushed in Horse Racing so he won't have any money on it, which boosts the likelihood Purdue covers.

LOL - that was good - this stuff happens all of the time. If he had coin on it, you would need to move it out of your leans.

I also like the Locker is a "flower growing from piles of terd".

I have many of the opposite sides this week, but I wish your plays well.

HW
 

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The purdue/neighbor theory cracks me up. So true, tho at times.
 

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Temple +30 over Penn State .. PSU just doesn't have the running game (O-line) to cover a big spread this year. They are a passing team and Joe puts it away when they get up 3 scores. I know Temple lost to Nova but they are returning 17 guys from last years 5-7 team(that had a pretty decent Run defense). PSU starting linebacker Navarro Bowman (All Big-Ten) is doubtful for the game.

this makes absolutely no sense here. you say you know they lost to nova but they are returning 17 guys last year that had a good run defense. If they lost to nova does it matter how many they return?@)

You can make your opinions based on single games. I don't do that. I look at teams as a whole. Temple losing to Nova don't mean flies on shit. Nova, New Hampshire, and a dozen other I-AA's would be favored against against 25-30 I-A teams.
 

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