#1 Big Drama (10-1 ML)
I think trainer David Fawkes blew it on this one. He ruled him out of the Ky Derby back in early March after a stable incident required minor surgery for Big Drama and put a hiccup in his training. After his Swales performance, I think he should of reconsidered. This horse has a beautiful racing form line and has lots of development left to happen on top of his Aug-Oct 2yo numbers. With 7 weeks race and the rail, he could be sitting on a big breakout here. Do not leave him off your tickets!
#2 Mine That Bird (6-1 ML)
Huge breakout in the derby (altitude training?). This is a light horse with quick leg action that skated over the sloppy track at Churchill Downs. It took a perfect storm of conditions to win that race, including a perfect rail trip that seemed to just open up for him. Mike Smith was a bad choice by Chip Wooley. Smith is notorious for being impatient and taking his mounts wide. With 2 weeks rest coming off a career effort and perfect conditions, I wouldn't touch this horse with 50-1 odds against this field.
#3 Musket Man (8-1 ML)
I initially was planning on using Musket Man quite heavily in the Preakness, but on second take I am not quite sold on him to run a big one here. His Derby figures get more credit because of the tough, physical, and wide trip he took. But with only 2 weeks off, that rough trip could of taken more of a toll than his figs show (Bris gave him a 103 vs his Ill Derby 104).
#4 Luv Gov (50-1 ML)
I actually loved this horse on Derby day and scored with him at 5-1 as he busted his maiden, but this is a ridiculous spot for him. IMO, the connections are more interested in having a good time at Pimlico than they are about winning the race. Career effort (by 10 pts) + 2 weeks rest = Easy toss.
#5 Friesan Fire (6-1 ML)
A god awful trip in the Derby. 100 feet after the gates opened, Friesan Fire's day was over as he got crushed and kicked from all angles. He took a good beating, but the wounds were superficial and have healed. He came out on Tuesday and torched 5f at Pimlico for a 58.2. My choice in the Derby, He's got a big explosive move left in his development that wasn't wasted at Churchill.
#6 Terrain (30-1 ML)
Do not sleep on him the way Pimlico oddsmaker Frank Carulli has! This baby is LIVE! With 5 weeks rest, Terrain (much like Big Drama), is sitting on a big, big race. His top gear is as good as any in the field and the man on his back, Pimlico Champion Jeremy Rose, knows every nook and cranny of this course. In 2005 Rose brought home Afleet Alex to the winners circle. In 2006 Rose grabbed third with 29-1 shot Hemingway's Key. Didn't have a mount in 2007, but rallied Icabad Crane into 3rd last year at 22-1. You are going to be crying the blues if you leave this horse off your tickets, because he's going to hit the board!
#7 Papa Clem (12-1 ML)
Another Derby horse that's tough to make sense on. I'm leaning towards a toss as this horse has made alot of improvement off his 2 year old numbers, there can't possibly be anymore left. With other horses with far better looking patterns, I don't think I can use him. With his running style I don't see a good trip coming out of this either. He's either going to have to burn up energy racing to the first turn, go wide, or sit way back off the pace with other horses with far better homestretch kicks. His workout this week was awful (1:05 in 5f).
#8 General Quarters (20-1 ML)
Tom McCarthy is showing his inexperience with this entry. This horse looked like he's shot his wad in the Bluegrass as he had nothing left in the Derby. He needs a good 2-3 month vacation and re-energize himself. I don't think he can get much better than he has already shown . I don't think he can be a consistent Grade-1 contender and will settle himself in the listed stakes/G3 ranks when McCarthy's 15 minutes of fame is over after this race.
#9 Pioneerof The Nile (5-1 ML)
As I said with a couple other horses, a career effort + 2 weeks rest is not my cup of tea. Although this one does have some decent development left in him. I'm surprised Baffert is doing this as I think he would be an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS horse in the Belmont. This actually makes me pause and think that Baffert must be very confident bringing him into here. This horse really bothers me as I think it's the one that could come up and bite me in the ass. But with the very probability of large ground loss from this post position and the cheap 4-1 or 5-1 price he'll go off at, there's no way I think anyone should key him to win.
#10 Flying Private (50-1 ML)
Quit early in the Derby, so he's probably still fresh, but he reacted badly to a big effort in the Lanesend at Turfway. He is a sustained runner with absolutely no tactical speed whatsoever. Nowhere near the same class as these other horses.
#11 Take The Points (30-1 ML)
Good pattern, good spacing, and training nicely but not quite fast enough I don't think. Combine all that with a rotten post position, I think he's a safe toss. He's got some okay kick and Pletcher/Prado are elite in their business. If he lucks out a good trip it's possible he could suckout the backend of the Super High 5 or Superfecta. But don't see enough in his 2yo performances to think he could get any more than that.
#12 Tone It Down (50-1 ML)
Awfully slow next to everyone else. Had his best race finishing 2nd in a $50k Optional Claimer and hasn't shown anything since. Easy toss.
#13 Rachel Alexandra (8/5 ML)
Which brings us to the meat & bones of this Preakness Stakes. Let's start off first with the facts. Fillies react more harshly to "big efforts" than colts do. If you would bet every filly who is coming off her career best race with less than 4 weeks rest, your handicapping career will come to a screeching halt, because I'd be shocked if you cash a single ticket in 20 tries. The decision by Jess Jackson to snatch up this classy filly and run her on 15 days rest after a monster performance is nothing short of criminal IMHO. Rachel's entire career consist of being slotted in quiet 5-9 horse fields against inferior competition. She will now be on the outside post with 7 or 8 animals on the inside of her with talent she has never had to race against. Also, save the talk about "This horse is a freak" or "She is different from all the rest." There have been about a dozen media proclaimed super horse 3 year olds over the past decade. From Fusaichi Pegasus to Point Given to War Emblem to Smarty Jones to Barbaro to Big Brown. They have all come to grips with the realities of "The Bounce" and the basic law of horse racing that career efforts damage horses and require rest!
#1 Big Drama, #5 Friesan Fire, and #6 Terrain will be my keys and I'll use them in various way. I may make weighted win bets on the 3 depending on their odds.. For example if the ML odds hold it would be:
50% on Friesan Fire (6-1)
30% on Big Drama (10-1)
10% on Terrain (30-1)
I'll use them heavily in the exotics with sprinkles of #3 Musket Man and #9 Pioneerof The Nile. Maybe just a 1,5,6 with 1,3,5,6,9 with 1,3,5,6,9 type ticket.
We'll see on Preakness day as my mood may change on a couple of these (but my mood definently won't change on Rachel Alexander who is heading for a major disappointment on Saturday).
