Sekrah's Gambling Rankings (1 thru 120)

[Sekrah]

I've probably spent hundreds of hours over the past 2 years working on a
"Gambling Rankings". These would be the rankings of teams based on statistical analysis of every single play of every single game each team has played. These rankings attempt to cut through the randomness that involve sporting events and try to reach the probability of success.

With these rankings you can:

1. See which teams public perceptions are inaccurate of their actual ability, either overrated or underrated.

2. See which teams have had more than their fair share of good luck, or teams which have been repeatedly burden by bad breaks.

There will probably be alot of chuckling and laughing, ah well, I can handle it. I was getting laughing at and harpooned on this site last season despite racking up a 60% win percentage. This methodology has served me extremely well over the years in beating the Vegas pointspread.

Here's the Rankings.


Rk Name Avg Rnk Points
--- -------------------- -------- ------
1 Southern Cal 83.09
2 Penn State 79.37
3 Oklahoma 75.12
4 Texas Tech 73.54
5 Florida 73.46
6 Illinois 73.32
7 Texas 71.96
8 Georgia 71.45
9 Oklahoma State 71.44
10 South Carolina 70.68
11 Oregon State 70.22
12 Iowa 68.68
13 California 68.49
14 Georgia Tech 68.13
15 Ball State 67.97
16 Mississippi 67.78
17 Alabama 67.51
18 Missouri 67.10
19 Tennessee 66.02
20 West Virginia 65.14
21 Arizona 64.97
22 Boise State 64.73
23 BYU 64.67
24 Ohio State 64.21
25 Kansas 63.93
26 Oregon 63.83
27 Purdue 63.53
28 Fresno State 63.23
29 LSU 63.15
30 Pittsburgh 63.14
31 Arkansas State 63.00
32 East Carolina 62.91
33 New Mexico 61.86
34 Northwestern 61.40
35 Wisconsin 61.30
36 Clemson 61.04
37 Connecticut 60.52
38 Tulane 59.92
39 Stanford 59.77
40 Ohio 59.75
41 Boston College 59.56
42 North Carolina 59.31
43 Michigan State 58.83
44 Baylor 58.71
45 Louisiana-Lafayette 58.57
46 South Florida 58.29
47 UCLA 57.82
48 TCU 57.74
49 Notre Dame 57.61
50 Syracuse 57.21
51 Cincinnati 57.19
52 Florida State 57.11
53 Arizona State 56.89
54 Louisville 56.69
55 Miami 56.65
56 Troy 56.64
57 Michigan 56.62
58 Kent State 56.58
59 Wyoming 56.48
60 Auburn 56.38
61 Nebraska 55.92
62 Tulsa 55.73
63 Air Force 55.65
64 Indiana 55.08
65 Navy 54.96
66 Kentucky 54.60
67 Akron 54.55
68 Virginia 54.33
69 Utah 54.11
70 Northern Illinois 54.10
71 Maryland 54.03
72 Southern Mississippi 53.90
73 Virginia Tech 53.51
74 Mississippi State 52.61
75 Wake Forest 52.59
76 North Carolina State 52.10
77 UNLV 51.97
78 Memphis 51.84
79 Arkansas 51.23
80 Middle Tennessee 51.16
81 Rutgers 51.13
82 Bowling Green 51.08
83 Toledo 50.73
84 Texas A&M 50.47
85 Vanderbilt 50.14
86 Kansas State 49.27
87 Iowa State 48.37
88 UAB 48.11
89 Central Michigan 48.07
90 San Diego State 47.58
91 San Jose State 47.25
92 Duke 47.06
93 Colorado State 46.85
93 Washington 46.85
95 Central Florida 46.78
96 Western Kentucky 46.73
97 Buffalo 46.29
98 Miami (OH) 46.24
99 Minnesota 45.98
100 Hawaii 45.69
101 UTEP 44.71
102 Florida Atlantic 44.68
103 Eastern Michigan 44.61
104 Colorado 44.12
105 Temple 43.84
106 Southern Methodist 43.75
107 Rice 43.33
108 Florida International 42.70
109 Marshall 42.19
110 Army 41.03
111 Louisiana Tech 40.98
112 Nevada 40.91
113 Western Michigan 40.73
114 Louisiana-Monroe 39.87
115 Houston 37.83
116 New Mexico State 34.08
117 Utah State 33.99
118 Washington State 33.83
119 North Texas 32.63
120 Idaho 24.87


Right off the top you can see some teams that my formula and system believes are overrated and underrated. I'm sure it'll draw a few :nohead: and :lol:, but that's okay... I believe Texas, Alabama, Ohio State, LSU and several others are overrated. My method believes that these teams have benefited from an above average amount of luck to put them in the position they are in today. Likewise, it believes Illinois, South Carolina, Iowa, Mississippi, and many others are vastly underrated teams who have suffered more than their fair share of bad luck!


Anyone who wishes to participate against my picks the rest of the way feel free. A basic method to computer what the method's spread would be to subtract the "score" of each team and subtract their opponent from it.

I.e. USC would be a 3.5 (3.72 rounded down) point favorite vs Penn State on a neutral field.. USC would be a 11 (11.13 rounded down) point favorite vs Texas on a neutral field..

Based on my analysis I believe the college football home field edge is worth 3 points. I will play any selection that is atleast 8 points difference between "My Line" and the sports books lines.

Using this criteria, here are my picks for this week. My Line is in parenthesis along with the difference between my line and the pointspread.

TUES 8:00 - Ohio +4 at Temple (Ohio -13, +17)

THUR 7:30 - Auburn at West Virginia -3 (West Virginia -12, +9)

SAT 12:00 - Texas Tech +2.5 at Kansas (Texas Tech -6.5, +9)
SAT 12:00 - Minnesota at Purdue pk (Purdue -20, +20)
SAT 12:00 - Central Michigan at Toledo +3.5 (Toledo -5.5, +9)
SAT 12:30 - Baylor +10.5 at Nebraska (Baylor pk, +10.5)
SAT 3:00 - Rice at Tulane -2.5 (Tulane -19.5, +17)
SAT 3:30 - Kent St. +8 at Miami OH (Kent St. -7.5, +15.5)
SAT 3:30 - Oklahoma St. +12.5 at Texas (Texas -3.5, 9)
SAT 5:00 - New Mexico St. at Idaho +15 (New Mexico St. -6, +9)
SAT 6:00 - Wyoming +32 at TCU (TCU -4.5, +27.5)
SAT 7:00 - Mississippi -4.5 at Arkansas (Mississippi -13.5, +9)
SAT 7:45 - Alabama at Tennessee +7 (Tennessee -1.5, +8.5)
SAT 8:00 - Penn State -2 at Ohio State (Penn State -12, +10)
SAT 9:30 - Colorado St. at San Diego St. +7.5 (San Diego St. -3.5, +11)
SAT 11:55 - Nevada at Hawaii +3.5 (Hawaii -8, +11.5)

SUN 8:00 - Central Florida +23 at Tulsa (Tulsa -12, +11)


:toast:

 

[METFAN]

GOOD LUCK..I WOULD HAVE TO SAY YOU HAVE INDIANA SND MICHIGAN WAY TO HIGH AND RICE AND SAN JOSE ST WAY TO LOW....JUST FIRSTTHOUGHT I'M SURE THERE ARE ALOT OF OTHERS

MISSISSIPPI OVER MISSOURI?:wink:

 

[VoiceofReason101]

SAT 12:00 - Minnesota at Purdue pk (Purdue -20, +20)
[/quote]


Purdue -20 :think2:

 

[United]

Nice info and thanks for your efforts. I remember you were doing very well last year and then suddenly disappeared.

So in all honesty, how are you doing this season?

 

[KyCrnel]

All in know is if I see the name SEKRAH, i'm tailin! Keep um comin dude, and thanks for coming back!

 

[whalewager]

 

[Sekrah]

SAT 12:00 - Minnesota at Purdue pk (Purdue -20, +20)

Purdue -20 :think2:[/quote]


The methodology says both that Purdue is massively underrated and that Minnesota is extremely overrated. The method was particularly very unimpressed with Minnesota's win over Illinois. Minnesota was the gift of generous good luck throughout the game.

Looking back on the game.. Minnesota was gifted a fumble on the ILL 8, which they converted for a TD, and they also scored a TD directly on an Illinois fumble in the 4th quarter. Illinois was also far more efficient with 7.3 yards per play vs 5.1 for Minnesota. Illinois averaging 7.3 yards per play, they were extremely unlucky not to score more points. This could be because of a numerous factors that are considered highly random, such as field position, untimely penalties, missed FGs, ALOT of 4th and shorts, and others.

In the view of this methodology, Illinois were the superior team, despite losing 27-20 on the scoreboard. The formula deemed that if each team were to play the game under similar circumstance, Illinois would have come out a big winner a majority of the time.

As for Purdue.. the method says Purdue's game vs Northwestern was far closer than the scoreline suggests.

The methodology is an acknowledgment to the fact that there's LARGE amounts of randomness that take place during football games. The formula tries to cut through that randomness.

You cannot cut through the randomness by looking at the final score! The final score is a result of the randomness!

 

[Sekrah]

Nice info and thanks for your efforts. I remember you were doing very well last year and then suddenly disappeared.

So in all honesty, how are you doing this season?

I haven't posted much and I haven't played a whole lot outside the forum either.. I've been sinking alot of time into this. The majority of my plays begin at this time of the season every year anyway after I've collected a good amount of data to use.

 

[dave11486]

Sekrah,

This looks awesome. I'm also digging Pur, Tol, Tul, Tenn, SDSU, and just about ready to play Penn State and WVU.

 

[sdf]

interesting...on a neutral field Illinois is the team to bet on over Texas? hmmmm

 

[vinnyvegas]

Pretty cool stuff & cerebral...I like it. I read into this that TOs & such invariably tell you a good story about a team...Over/Under-rated. Makes a lot of sense to me.

Thx for sharing & good luck.

I like these ones that you've posted:

TUES 8:00 - Ohio +4 at Temple (Ohio -13, +17)

THUR 7:30 - Auburn at West Virginia -3 (West Virginia -12, +9)

SAT 12:00 - Texas Tech +2.5 at Kansas (Texas Tech -6.5, +9)
SAT 12:00 - Minnesota at Purdue pk (Purdue -20, +20)
SAT 12:00 - Central Michigan at Toledo +3.5 (Toledo -5.5, +9)
SAT 12:30 - Baylor +10.5 at Nebraska (Baylor pk, +10.5)
SAT 3:00 - Rice at Tulane -2.5 (Tulane -19.5, +17)

SAT 3:30 - Oklahoma St. +12.5 at Texas (Texas -3.5, 9)

SAT 7:00 - Mississippi -4.5 at Arkansas (Mississippi -13.5, +9)
SAT 7:45 - Alabama at Tennessee +7 (Tennessee -1.5, +8.5)
SAT 8:00 - Penn State -2 at Ohio State (Penn State -12, +10)

 

[TOOTIGHT]

I have been watching the Gophers this year and my take on them is they are a pretty solid team. They have a very efficient QB, their young O-line has played WAY over expectations, running game is solid, and they have a great big play receiver. On the other side of the ball they are a little suspect against good offensive teams (Purdue is def. nowhere near Illinois in terms of offense) and they create turnovers more than they get lucky. Not to mention they are good at getting pressure and have some playmakers on the D-line. I think you are looking at a Gopher team that is still undervalued despite beating Illinois on the road. With that being said I would have to choose the small softdrinks in this match up.

Minny - 28
Purdue - 20

 

[bellyputter]

Some home fields are worth nothing and may even have a negative effect on certain teams(distractions,fan abuse,etc.,etc.), while some home fields in the "right" situations are worth as much as 6 points(last home game,momentum,etc.,etc.). It can be a huge advantage against the line. There are a couple of situations(time-tested)that would amaze you. Good Luck

 

[oceanguy]

impressive amount of time spent and appreciate that you posted your findings :aktion033

without going into too much detail (unless you care to), how do you quantify such randomness...i.e. a fumble "caused" by the D vs a fumble because, while being blocked and falling, a players foot randomly hit the ball out of the ballcarrier's grasp?

BOL this season

 

[Sekrah]

. I think you are looking at a Gopher team that is still undervalued despite beating Illinois on the road.

I believe the book recognizes that the Illinois win was a fluke. If a team upsets another team, it doesn't increase their talent level. Talent level changes are extremely small week to week (improvements vs injuries).

Do they have the talent level of the team that beat Illinois? or are they the talent level of the team that struggled with Northern Illinois, Montana State, Indiana, and got clocked by Ohio State? Statistical analysis suggests the latter.

 

[Sekrah]

impressive amount of time spent and appreciate that you posted your findings :aktion033

without going into too much detail (unless you care to), how do you quantify such randomness...i.e. a fumble "caused" by the D vs a fumble because, while being blocked and falling, a players foot randomly hit the ball out of the ballcarrier's grasp?

BOL this season

Fumbles are absolutely 100% not a factor. They are highly random, and almost completely unpredictable. Adding that would just be adding noise to the formula.

 

[jimmymo]

SAT 12:00 - Minnesota at Purdue pk (Purdue -20, +20)

Shhhhhhhhhhh.....Purdue is a huge play for me this weekend and I see Minnesota as a big public play.....lets keep it that way

 

[Packwins]

SAT 6:00 - Wyoming +32 at TCU (TCU -4.5, +27.5)

TCU -4.5 :think2:

 

[Sekrah]

SAT 6:00 - Wyoming +32 at TCU (TCU -4.5, +27.5)

TCU -4.5 :think2:

Wyoming's defense is without a doubt better than advertised.. They lost to Utah 40-6, but 20 of those points were off an INT return for TD, a blocked punt for TD, and a fumble recovery for TD. I also believe Wyoming has been the victim of poor randomness in many of their other games, including their BYU and Bowling Green losses.

TCU's offense is not nearly as good as alot of people think they are. There best offensive efforts were against Stephen F Austin, Southern Methodist, San Diego St., and BYU.. I know they scored their big upset win over BYU, but BYU has been the beneficiary of one of the weakest schedules in the country.

I love this play especially with TCU coming off a big upset win. This is definently one of my favorite plays of the week.

 

[sdf]

Fumbles are absolutely 100% not a factor. They are highly random, and almost completely unpredictable. Adding that would just be adding noise to the formula.

tell that to Kurt Warner, Tony Rmo and JT O'Sullivan. those guys fumble more than most other NFL quarterbacks. It's not random