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Michigan ML +125

Couple thoughts:

- According to my numbers, Rutgers defense is okay, but nothing special. Notre Dame, Utah and Minnesota all defenses rated significantly better than Rutgers. The Michigan Offense has had nothing but 3rd & Long situations in their losses because of the stout run defenses they've faced in the early downs.. Look Michigan's offense isn't great obviously, but this is a softer spot for them and their 3rd down situations should be the best they've had in the past several games.
- Rutgers has faced one decent defense this year, Penn State. Gary Nova went 15 for 30 with 5 interceptions and they scored 10 points. The rest of their opponents all have soft defenses.
- I believe Michigan has an excellent defense that is underrated. The main problem is the offense can't stay on the field because of the offense. See point #1. That should be improved this week.
- Any team that loses 2 ugly games ATS is dangerous, especially after one as a double-digit home favorite. The players seem to like Hoke and I think they'll go down swinging for him and come up with some plays in this softer spot. I can see with less pressure on the road, they'll elevate their game.
 

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I hope they win but I would never bet them again with all this controversy going on. I would take Rutgers myself but I am not touching this game. Students held a protest wanting the AD to resign a few days ago. A lot of turmoil with this Michigan team and I bleed Blue but they are in for a very long season. I hope you are right as I will, of course, be rooting for them to win. Maybe playing on the road might actually help them tonight.
 

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Well; if Wolverines are still fighting; and are with Hoke; I think you got a winner; just not going to bet Mich..gl.

ps thanks for the post, pik, and explanation; just too much of a buckeye to trust mich..gl
 

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No worries tenman, you'll get your win tonight. Finding legitimate, logical reasons to bet teams that nobody else would touch with a ten foot pole is the key to sports gambling.
 

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No worries tenman, you'll get your win tonight. Finding legitimate, logical reasons to bet teams that nobody else would touch with a ten foot pole is the key to sports gambling.
I agree...gl gr8 post..
 

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Good start. If they can keep having drives like that they pick up a couple first downs and don't go 3-and-out 5 times in a row, the D stays fresh and the team is in good shape.
 

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Love their front 7, but that 26 Lewis in the secondary for Michigan is a problem, yikes. Would not let him cover anybody man to man.
 

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No dog in this race, took this dumpster fire against Utah and they are really bad on offense. Why piss into the wind?
 

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No dog in this race, took this dumpster fire against Utah and they are really bad on offense. Why piss into the wind?

Utah's defense is better than Rutgers. So is Minnesota's. It's not tricky or complicated. An offense will do better and move the ball more against mediocre defenses than they will vs good defenses. You are missing opportunities if you avoid every team who looks bad vs a good defense.
 

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Total fucking screw job on that 3rd down pass.. There's no fucking planet where that's not a catch.
 

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WHY THE FUCK DOES THE CLOCK GET TO RESTART AFTER THAT FALSE START?!?

Ungoddamn believable.
 

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