Sekrah Gambling Rankings - Week 11

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8 Point Plays Record
Last Week: 5-3-1
Overall: 18-8-1


Rk Name Points
--- -------------------- ------
1 Southern Cal 81.29
2 Penn State 76.01
3 Florida 72.27
4 Texas Tech 72.04
5 Oklahoma 71.85
6 Missouri 69.86
7 Oklahoma State 68.89
8 TCU 67.88
9 Texas 67.71
10 Alabama 66.88
11 Boise State 66.72
12 California 66.53
13 Georgia 65.71
14 LSU 64.79
15 Iowa 64.72
16 Illinois 64.66
17 Ball State 64.36
18 Georgia Tech 63.92
19 Oregon State 63.79
20 Utah 63.78
21 Oregon 63.57
22 Tulsa 62.45
23 West Virginia 61.46
24 South Florida 61.27
25 South Carolina 61.16
26 Florida State 61.08
27 Ohio State 60.92
28 BYU 60.90
29 Cincinnati 60.86
30 Arizona 60.85
31 Clemson 60.74
32 Nevada 60.57
33 Houston 60.56
34 Kansas 60.36
35 Mississippi 59.48
36 Troy 58.46
37 Nebraska 57.94
38 Northern Illinois 57.83
39 Miami 57.55
40 Connecticut 57.48
41 Wisconsin 56.63
42 Pittsburgh 56.57
43 Northwestern 56.36
44 North Carolina 56.29
45 Louisville 55.72
46 Arkansas State 55.24
47 Notre Dame 55.02
48 Western Michigan 54.49
49 Purdue 54.08
50 Louisiana-Lafayette 54.02
51 Michigan State 54.01
52 Air Force 53.99
53 Boston College 53.94
54 East Carolina 53.89
55 Baylor 53.73
56 Stanford 53.44
57 Tennessee 53.16
58 Arkansas 53.13
59 Rutgers 52.83
60 Maryland 52.67
61 Fresno State 52.60
62 Indiana 52.49
63 Kentucky 52.12
64 Virginia 51.85
65 Minnesota 51.04
66 Memphis 50.92
67 Kent State 50.84
68 New Mexico 50.78
69 Southern Mississippi 50.58
69 Arizona State 50.58
71 Tulane 50.48
72 Mississippi State 49.86
73 Buffalo 49.85
74 Akron 49.81
75 Auburn 49.54
76 Ohio 48.92
77 Hawaii 48.63
78 Navy 48.51
79 Rice 48.45
80 Kansas State 48.05
81 San Jose State 47.71
82 Colorado State 47.34
83 Wake Forest 47.18
84 Marshall 47.00
85 Central Michigan 46.96
86 Virginia Tech 46.55
87 Michigan 46.46
88 Duke 46.30
89 UCLA 46.15
90 New Mexico State 46.11
91 Louisiana Tech 45.99
92 Florida Atlantic 45.83
93 Army 45.75
94 Vanderbilt 45.66
95 Bowling Green 45.64
96 UNLV 44.67
97 Toledo 44.43
98 Texas A&M 44.39
99 Colorado 43.17
100 Wyoming 42.34
101 Western Kentucky 42.31
102 Temple 42.25
103 UTEP 42.02
104 Eastern Michigan 41.95
105 Syracuse 41.91
106 Miami (OH) 41.87
107 Central Florida 41.58
108 Middle Tennessee 41.02
109 UAB 40.70
110 Iowa State 40.08
111 North Carolina State 40.06
112 Southern Methodist 39.25
113 Florida International 38.39
114 Louisiana-Monroe 38.18
115 Utah State 38.15
116 Idaho 32.85
117 North Texas 31.73
118 Washington 31.38
119 San Diego State 30.97
120 Washington State 26.02


Haven't compared these to this weeks lines yet.. I will do later when I get a chance.


 

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8 Point Plays

Ohio State at Northwestern +11
Wisconsin at Indiana +10
Georgia Tech +4.5 at North Carolina
Wyoming +24.5 at Tennessee
Bowling Green at Ohio +2.5
Arizona at Washington State +40
Arkansas St. -3 at Florida International
Baylor +25.5 at Texas
 

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I'm working on translating my numbers to possible totals and seeing if we can find some over/under values.. This will probably be later this week, closer to Saturday if I come up with any.

For example, Tuesday's game, Miami OH at Buffalo, I have Buffalo -11 with them scoring 32.2 points and Miami OH 21.2 points for a 53.4 total (no value).

I'll see if I can spot some value plays with this.
 

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Sekrah,

Nice record. Any idea how it breaks down between home and road teams?
 

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I'm working on translating my numbers to possible totals and seeing if we can find some over/under values.. This will probably be later this week, closer to Saturday if I come up with any.

For example, Tuesday's game, Miami OH at Buffalo, I have Buffalo -11 with them scoring 32.2 points and Miami OH 21.2 points for a 53.4 total (no value).

I'll see if I can spot some value plays with this.

just wondering... how do you translate those above #'s in post 1 to points scored? Or is it that you do it head to head and come out with a projected total? j/w i base mine on their overall performance of the year of yeards/penalties/etc but nothing that can consistently give me a close ending score.
 

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Sekrah,

I've been fading Wazzou for the last 7 weeks or so. Do you really think the trend ends? Wazzou has a problem scoring and they turn the ball over a bunch. I thought they were giving too many points against Stanford last week and the 41 looks like a lot. Not sure here.....



(Here I go again!)....


---
 

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Daheavy1, Not sure, would have to go back through last two weeks threads to see.

Jetplane, I use teams points scored and points allowed averages but I use my own personally adjusted "scores" to do so.


HERE ARE MY SCORELINE PREDICTIONS FOR TONIGHTS GAMES

N.Illinois - 22.4
Ball St. - 31.9

My Line: Ball St. -9.5, Total 54.3
Books: Ball St. -9.5, Total 47.5

There is some value in the over 47.5


Toledo - 24.3
Akron - 32.7

My Line: Akron -8.4, Total 57
Books: Akron -6.5, Total 54.5


Not a whole lot of value here, if you're an action seeking junkie, Akron and the over are the only sides I'd touch.
 

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Hope a few here jumped on the Ball St/NIU over from the previous post..
 

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Predictions for tonight

Maryland - 26.7
Virginia Tech - 23.6

My line: Maryland -3.1, Total 50.3
Books: Maryland -3, Total 42.5

Good value in the over.


TCU - 23.4
Utah - 22.3

My line: TCU -1.1, Total 45.6
Books: TCU -2, Total 43.0

No Value Here.
 

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Predictions for tonight

Maryland - 26.7
Virginia Tech - 23.6

My line: Maryland -3.1, Total 50.3
Books: Maryland -3, Total 42.5

Good value in the over.


TCU - 23.4
Utah - 22.3

My line: TCU -1.1, Total 45.6
Books: TCU -2, Total 43.0

No Value Here.


Sekrah..... Maryland's Line is +3 and your line is Maryland -3... Isn't there good value with Maryland +3 as well? Thanks for your insight.
 

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Sekrah! Good to see you back here man. I value your picks and was on Akron and the Over in the Ball State game last night. Thanks for those. I just jumped on the Maryland Over. Just wanted to give you a shout out bud..
 

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Sekrah..... Maryland's Line is +3 and your line is Maryland -3... Isn't there good value with Maryland +3 as well? Thanks for your insight.


Oops, my bad, was looking in wrong column.. Yes.. Maryland +3 has a little value. I personally don't think I'm going to play it. But if I was forced to, it would be the only side I would play tonight.

I will have a little bit on the over.
 

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Unlucky we didn't get that over based on my stats analysis of the game.. The numbers were there for 47-51 points. Both teams punters did excellent jobs in the field position game! That may have been the difference. Hokies could of had 30-34 with better luck.
 

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Don't have time to post the numbers

But slight leans towards Nevada, and the under 72... A bit stronger towards the under. I'll be making a small play on the under tonight.
 

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Okay folks.. I'm going to be posting my predicted scoreline for ALL GAMES throughout the night and early morning... Let's hope we can find some great total plays to go with tomorrow!
 

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I'll be posting these 5 at a time throughout the night/morning.


0.0-2.5 = No Value
2.5-5.0 = Small Value
5.0-8.0 = Medium Value
8.0+ = Large Value




Week 11 Predictions

Georgia Tech - 25.0
North Carolina - 20.4,

Ga Tech -4.6, Total 45.4 (Vegas: UNC -4.5, Total 42.5)

Large Value: Georgia Tech +4.5
Small Value: Over 42.5
Illinois - 33.5
W.Michigan - 26.3

Illinois -7.2, Total 59.8 (Vegas: Illinois -7, Total 59)

No Value
Louisville - 22.8
Pittsburgh - 26.7

Pittsburgh -3.9, Total 49.5 (Vegas: Pittsburgh -6, Total 53.5)

Small Value: Under 53.5
Michigan - 20.6
Minnesota - 28.2

Minnesota -7.6, Total 48.8 (Vegas: Minnesota -8, Total 47.5)

No Value
Ohio State - 23.0
Northwestern - 21.4

Ohio State -1.6, Total 44.4 (Vegas: Ohio State -11, Total 42)

Large Value: Northwestern +11
 
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