Sekrah Gambling Rankings (For Week 10!)

[Sekrah]

This past weekends "scores" are in and a couple very tiny tweaks made, shouldn't move anyone more than a point (maybe a couple moved 2 pts) from where they would of been otherwise.


Rk Name Points
--- -------------------- ------
1 Southern Cal 80.89
2 Penn State 75.14
3 Florida 72.99
4 Oklahoma 72.53
5 Texas Tech 71.24
6 Texas 71.07
7 Missouri 71.05
8 Georgia 70.68
9 Oklahoma State 67.88
10 California 67.06
11 TCU 66.09
12 Iowa 66.08
13 Illinois 65.58
14 LSU 65.32
15 Alabama 64.81
16 Ball State 64.14
17 Utah 63.82
18 Oregon 63.71
19 Georgia Tech 63.62
20 Oregon State 63.54
21 South Florida 63.13
22 Boise State 63.09
23 Florida State 61.57
23 Houston 61.57
25 South Carolina 61.52
26 Tulsa 61.39
27 West Virginia 61.37
28 Ohio State 60.77
29 BYU 60.68
30 Arizona 60.64
31 Mississippi 60.14
32 Nevada 59.77
33 Cincinnati 59.36
34 Nebraska 59.24
35 Kansas 58.96
36 Connecticut 58.70
37 Troy 58.53
38 Arkansas State 58.51
39 Louisville 58.16
40 Clemson 57.73
41 Northern Illinois 57.64
42 Boston College 57.47
43 Miami 56.49
44 Pittsburgh 56.44
45 North Carolina 56.42
46 Wisconsin 55.95
47 Notre Dame 54.86
48 Baylor 54.70
49 East Carolina 54.51
50 Northwestern 54.46
51 Air Force 54.36
52 Fresno State 54.23
53 Tennessee 53.95
54 Western Michigan 53.74
55 Michigan State 53.59
56 Rutgers 53.34
57 Virginia 53.18
58 Arkansas 53.09
59 Kentucky 52.70
60 Louisiana-Lafayette 52.63
61 Tulane 52.58
62 Maryland 52.46
63 Indiana 52.29
64 Purdue 52.21
65 Arizona State 51.97
66 New Mexico 51.94
67 Memphis 51.64
68 New Mexico State 50.99
69 Minnesota 50.82
70 Kent State 50.78
71 Kansas State 49.95
72 Stanford 49.60
73 Navy 49.11
74 Wake Forest 48.95
75 Hawaii 48.75
76 Akron 48.68
77 Rice 48.54
78 Buffalo 48.48
79 Ohio 48.45
80 Auburn 48.21
81 Southern Mississippi 47.94
82 San Jose State 47.68
83 Michigan 47.30
84 Virginia Tech 46.77
85 Mississippi State 46.68
86 UNLV 46.60
87 Colorado State 46.55
88 UCLA 46.28
89 Florida Atlantic 46.27
90 Central Michigan 45.79
91 Marshall 45.58
92 Vanderbilt 45.39
93 Toledo 44.97
94 Bowling Green 44.70
95 Texas A&M 43.86
96 UAB 43.55
97 Army 43.53
98 Duke 43.31
99 Colorado 42.17
100 Louisiana Tech 41.90
101 Middle Tennessee 41.72
102 Iowa State 41.67
103 Western Kentucky 41.55
104 Eastern Michigan 41.52
105 Temple 41.37
106 Miami (OH) 41.10
107 UTEP 40.68
108 North Carolina State 40.13
109 Central Florida 39.65
110 Louisiana-Monroe 39.36
111 Southern Methodist 39.18
112 Florida International 39.04
113 Wyoming 38.97
114 Syracuse 38.73
115 Utah State 36.32
116 Washington 32.36
117 San Diego State 31.26
118 Idaho 31.02
119 North Texas 30.47
120 Washington State 27.00


Last Week's Record: 7-3
Two Week Record: 13-5 (includes backtesting from 2 weeks ago)


This Week's Plays

Syntax:Team (Rating) at Team (Rating), [My Line, Difference vs Vegas]


Auburn (48.21) at Mississippi -6 (60.14), [Mississippi -16, Diff 10]

Alabama (64.81) at Arkansas St. +24 (58.51), [Alabama -9.5, Diff 14.5]

Florida International (39.04) at LA-Lafeyette -7.5 (52.63), [LA-Lafayette -16.5, Diff 9]

Washington (32.36) at Southern Cal -43.5 (80.89), [Southern Cal -51.5, Diff 8]

Boise St. (63.09) at New Mexico St. +20.5 (50.99), [Boise St. -9, Diff 11.5]

Texas (71.07) at Texas Tech +6 (71.24), [Texas Tech -3, Diff 9]

Tulane +25.5 (52.58) at LSU (65.32), [LSU -15.5, Diff 10]

East Carolina -3 (54.51) at Central Florida (39.65), [East Carolina -12, Diff 9]

 

[sarcean]

Alabama at #15 behind a 2 loss LSU, 2 loss California, 3 loss Iowa, and 4 loss Illinois? :monsters-

 

[A10Expert]

Illinois does keep coming up in discussion, Sekrah can you briefly break down why they are so high in your rankings?

 

[SKing24]

Sekrah,

Just wondering why Kent St wasn't a play...

Kent St 50.78, Bowling Green 44.7 + 3 (home team)

Kent St should be favored by 3 and they are getting 8. Difference of 11.

 

[Jetplane]

I'm guessing your value is 8 or better for a play?

 

[Sekrah]

Sekrah,

Just wondering why Kent St wasn't a play...

Kent St 50.78, Bowling Green 44.7 + 3 (home team)

Kent St should be favored by 3 and they are getting 8. Difference of 11.

Got it SKing.. Thanks for the catch here! Kent State is officially a play. :toast:

 

[Sekrah]

Illinois does keep coming up in discussion, Sekrah can you briefly break down why they are so high in your rankings?

I look at it this way: If you've ever played poker before you will know the phrase "running bad".. i.e., you're getting your money in with the best of it but the worst hand keeps catching. Illinois is running bad. They are a very good team IMO. I have a writeup on the Minnesota-Illinois game in another thread.. That was perhaps one of the most extreme examples I've seen all year where a team that was beaten should of been an outright clear winner.

Wisconsin game was close.. Wisconsin was due for a big up game, especially at home. Illinois didn't have their best performance of the season last week either. There are ebbs and flows throughout the year.

But outside of that, Illinois put up good fights in well battled losses in night games at Missouri (6th) and at Penn State (2nd) both of which I have rated quite high. Their average performance puts them where I have them. If Illinois were running as good with their luck as Alabama has been running (IMO), they could be unbeaten right now like the Tide are.

 

[trentmoney]

I look at it this way: If you've ever played poker before you will know the phrase "running bad".. i.e., you're getting your money in with the best of it but the worst hand keeps catching. Illinois is running bad. They are a very good team IMO. I have a writeup on the Minnesota-Illinois game in another thread.. That was perhaps one of the most extreme examples I've seen all year where a team that was beaten should of been an outright clear winner.

Wisconsin game was close.. Wisconsin was due for a big up game, especially at home. Illinois didn't have their best performance of the season last week either. There are ebbs and flows throughout the year.

But outside of that, Illinois put up good fights in well battled losses in night games at Missouri (6th) and at Penn State (2nd) both of which I have rated quite high. Their average performance puts them where I have them. If Illinois were running as good with their luck as Alabama has been running (IMO), they could be unbeaten right now like the Tide are.

first possesion of the ill/minn game illini kicker kicks ball out of bounds, then first play from scrimmage face-mask penalty on illinois for 15yds on a play that gained no yards. so minnesota, without gaining a yard, is at the illini 45 yd line...their offense then gains 45 yds for 7 pts.

first possesion for illinois- kick return mishandles kickoff and gets tackled at 3 yd line... after driving to the minnesota 29 yd line zook for some ridiculous reason elects a 46 yd fg instead of going for it on 4th and 1... kicker misses fg

so after one drive each minny gains 45 yds and has 7 pts
illinois gains almost 70 yds and has zero pts

which team has better production and which team has more pts are not necessarily the same

that's why illinois is rated high and has been "running bad"

btw-i'm on illinois this weekend
:toast:

 

[A10Expert]

Sekrah,
I gotta believe you study boxscores to find all this, not actually watching the games.

 

[Sekrah]

trent... that was just the beginning.. Stuff like that happened throughout the game.

Opening play of the 2nd half was a fumble on the Illinois 7 that Minnesota punched in for 6.

Illinois moved 70-yards on their next drive that ended in only 3

Illinois move 80-yards on their next drive that ended in 0 after being stopped at the goal line.

Later in the fourth Minnesota had a fumble return for TD.


If these two teams were to play again, I would have to get 17-20 points before I'd even think about touching Minnesota.

 

[Sekrah]

Sekrah,
I gotta believe you study boxscores to find all this, not actually watching the games.

I do obtain stats from box scores, but I also review Drive charts and Play by plays logs. Starting field position is a factor.

 

[GoForIt]

Illinois was my only play last week (7-5 YTD) . That team looked flat and sloppy. Too many dumb mistakes. I blame the coach. He's a better recruiter than coach.

 

[GoForIt]

I think North Texas should be last in your rankings. I would make hapless Washington State favored over them.

 

[Sekrah]

North Texas showed a little bit of life in their Florida International and UL-Monroe games. It would be interesting seeing those two play.

Illinois did play below their capabilities last week, no doubt about it..

 

[GoForIt]

North Texas Head Coach Tood Dodge just kicked many players off his team for drug offenses. I thought cocaine would make you better on defense since it is played with emotion. I guess not. North Texas really is playing what the coach calls Dodge Ball. Let's dodge whoever has the football.

 

[DTrain+]

USC couldn't be any team in the rest of the top 9.

 

[Sekrah]

USC couldn't be any team in the rest of the top 9.

:nohead:

 

[bmore]

looks like northwestern is really close to being a play

NW 54.46

Minn 53.82 +3 for home team

MINN -6.5

almost a value of 8 (7.14)...any thoughts on making this a play? we have added line value due to Minny beating Illini and NW losing to Indiana...would like to here your thoughts here as NW seems to be a solid play to me even before looking at the value your rankings are providing. thanks

 

[Sekrah]

Yep. The value is definently with Northwestern in this one.

Yes these ratings are a guide to spot value plays. Just because it might not meet the 8-point criteria doesn't mean you can't consider it as a play.

Using traditional handicapping methods in tandem with these numbers is recommended!

 

[Illini]

trent... that was just the beginning.. Stuff like that happened throughout the game.

Opening play of the 2nd half was a fumble on the Illinois 7 that Minnesota punched in for 6.

Illinois moved 70-yards on their next drive that ended in only 3

Illinois move 80-yards on their next drive that ended in 0 after being stopped at the goal line.

Later in the fourth Minnesota had a fumble return for TD.


If these two teams were to play again, I would have to get 17-20 points before I'd even think about touching Minnesota.

Exactly. I won't go so far as to say that Illinois is good, because their defense is bad and their QB is inconsistent as hell. But they are a TON better than Minnesota, and completely dominated them, only to lose on a bunch of flukes added together.