blue edwards said:
d2...take the homer hat off for 5 minutes and give me an unbiased case for the illini. i am not betting anymore than i already have on this game...just want a feel good write-up so i can make it thru the afternoon.
thanks in advance, your conservative buddy, blue.
blue, I've written a lot on it and I honestly feel Illinois is the right side. A few things:
1. On offense, ILL's passing and motion offense is well suited to wear and break down Carolina. Not gonna beat them off the dribble one-on-one all day long like MSU tried but they are prone to defensive laspses and don't see them playing 35 seconds of strong defense often. They will eventually leave man open and all Illini are capable of hitting. Will need to knock down open shots at least as well as they did vs. Lou. I think Head will have a lot of opps, likely being defended by McCants. Head hit his last 4 3-pt attempts on Saturday.
2. NC is prone to turnovers -- avgd 18/game reg season. Illinois will need to force many more than they did against Lou. They are very capable.
3. Illinois has every starter capable of putting up 20 and beating you. For NC here, I really think it's May or nobody. Illinois has allowed a 20-pt scorer in each tourney game...but NONE by guards. Expect two of the best defenders in the country -- Williams and Brown -- to lock down Felton and McCants pretty well. Always prefer to bet on a team with more legit options for the game. The talent vs. team thing is a myth. Marvin Williams may be a lottery pick (some day), but is he one of the best players on the floor? No.
4. "Home court" edge is real. Weber talked to team about defending their court. That's how Illinois is treating it, as they did in Rosemont, and they seemed quite comfy with their surroundings vs. Lou. Crowd will be much more favorable than it was against Lou. I'd say 70-75% Illini favorable. It's a factor.
Many more reasons as well. That said, either team is most certainly capable of willing. Best two team in the country are on the court. Let's see what happens.