seeing something interesting Prop at Catalina

trytrytry · Oct 17, 2004

i just logged in as a guest, so I dont know if these are live lines for customers

they have will Balt Ravens make playoffs Yes -400 No +300

Then an adjusted season total wins 8 1/2 over -125 under -105

Would you not play no on playoffs and yes on over and lock in a profit.

No chance is there a 8 win AFC playoff team is there??

what am i missing on this free money chance?

Journeyman · Oct 18, 2004

Good point..I would not post that one ...

Noreaga+ · Oct 18, 2004

i would just bet the no.. that has to be a bad line with pittsburgh having a 2 game lead in the divison

Journeyman · Oct 18, 2004

"make the playoffs" includes Wild Card...not a bad line at all.

trytrytry · Oct 18, 2004

i dont have funds there so anyone else go ahead, money is tied up for some time however. I just dont see an 8 game AFC wild card team at all.

and you could win both if they get 9 wins and no playoff !!!!

somebody pound it and thank me later.

Noreaga+ · Oct 18, 2004

the nfl has a wildcard??? thanks captain obvious.

getting 3-1 has incredible value considering they would have to beat out 4 of these 5 teams for the wildcard

Jets (2 games infront on balt)
Jax ( 1 game in front of balt)
Houston ( 1 game back of balt)
Cleveland (1 game back of balt)
San Diego (1 game back of balt)

Journeyman · Oct 18, 2004

I could see 9 wins and no playoffs...great find ttt

Journeyman · Oct 18, 2004

Your a funny guy Noreaga , clown.

Why did you change your name?

Noreaga+ · Oct 18, 2004

great find.. but since it has been brought to their attentioon it wont be up for much longer

Noreaga+ · Oct 18, 2004

change my name from what??

Journeyman · Oct 18, 2004

Thats what I asked you, you have been around here much longer than this name.

Noreaga+ · Oct 18, 2004

uh no i havent i was a long time poster at MW but i do not see how that has any relevance

trytrytry · Oct 18, 2004

I bet its up all night and they will not see it. I did not mean to cost them so much cash. Well pound away, it has not yet changed.

Bismarck · Oct 18, 2004

It's much too late for me to be doing math right now.......but, after a quick glance at the numbers, I'd guess the bet that you're actually making is:

(-410)[approx.] that the Ravens will NOT make the playoffs AND have less than 8.5 wins.

trytrytry · Oct 18, 2004

no bismark what you are betting on is that they Balt will

not make the Playofffs +300

Will have over 8 1/2 wins -125

You bet say $110 on no Playoffs $110 to win $330

and you bet say $250 on over 8 1/2 wins to win $200

you win aprox $80 on this if either bet wins. you win one and lose the other.

(Disaster Hits and you lose both if The Balt team makes the playoffs with 8 or less wins then you lose both. But that is less than a 2% chance.)

But you also have a shot at winning both and winning $550 if Balt gets 9 or 10 wins and does not make the playoffs (9 wins being the more possible, Id estimate a 6-8% shot at winning both)

And it is still up, who bet it so far?

Bismarck · Oct 18, 2004

trytrytry said:
(Disaster Hits and you lose both if The Balt team makes the playoffs with 8 or less wins then you lose both. But that is less than a 2% chance.)

Less than 2% chance? Hardly. I understand what you are betting on, but I'm not sure you do. Your math showed that you are risking about about $360 to win $80 that the "disaster" won't hit. That is -400. I did not take into account the possbility that Baltimore wins 9 or more and does not make the playoffs, but with the current situation in the AFC, and the opponents of the teams that appear to be in the race, I think that has very little chance of happening.

trytrytry · Oct 18, 2004

Bismark how many AFC teams with 8 wins have made the playoffs? about 1 in 50. maybe 1 in 33? 1 in 33 is much less of a chance than -400 my friend!! one every 7 or 8 years.

The huge bonus is the 9 win teams that dont make the playoffs every other year at least it happens . 10 win teams dont make it some years. how many dont get in Id say 1 in 6 nine win teams do not get in.

not any stats in front of me on this, Im guessing.

Im sure somebody is all over this and will post the truth!

This is a true overlay. Maybe the biggest on this forum except for when I told everyone to play Kerry at +200 and scalp later!!

My math is fine. Now pound it!!

HPark1 · Oct 18, 2004

The line of Baltimore making the playoffs is/was obviously an error. Its down to -320/+250 now.

trytrytry · Oct 18, 2004

i would say it was a soft line at -400 for sure not "an error". An error is when the technican types it in the wrong order, or adds a zero some error. this was a soft line perhaps. The line is now closer to reality.

This was a soft line and it looks like our RXers hit it pretty good all night and into the day.

Im sure Catalina is thrilled they joined this place!! There go the contests!

Jacksorbetter+ · Oct 18, 2004

The Steelers do not have a 2 game lead in the division. It is 1 1/2 as the Ravens had their bye this week. Also, the Ravens beat the Steelers in week 2. Best loss the Steelers ever had as the Ravens did them a favor hurting Maddux. Also, the wildcards in the AFc aren't exactly kicking butt. the Pats/Jets are undefeated and would be 1 wildcard. The other would be Jacksonville at 4-2.