SECplayer's Week 4, (9-6, + 5.3 units)

Search

New member
Joined
Sep 19, 2005
Messages
2,131
Tokens
3 - 1 last week. Missed on the Florida/Tennesee OVER 52. I rarely play totals but that one caught my eye and I couldn't resist. Lesson learned.

Wanted to go ahead and post my Thursday pick because I'm guessing the line will be up to around 5 or so by game time. Although it has already dropped from 3.5 to 3 today.

Anyway, this will definitely be my largest play of the week.

Ole Miss -3 at South Carolina (Thursday), 5 units


A lot has been made out of Ole Miss' easy schedule and somewhat lackluster performaces. Won 45-14 at Memphis and then beat a Division II team this week 52-6. It should be noted that Ole Miss has made it a point to show absolutely nothing on offense or defense in the first two games. If you watched Ole Miss at all last year, you know their offensive coordinator is very innovative and imaginative. Runs a lot of different sets and always comes up with a few new wrinkles for every game. Well, he has had since the Cotton Bowl to come up with these new ones. Ole Miss couldn't have been more vanilla offensively in thier first two games and I look for the offense to open up with quite a few new sets against South Carolina.

Pretty much the same can be said for the defense. Tyrone Nix (South Carolina's old DC) loves to blitz. Again, the first two games, Nix hardly showed any blitzes and relied mainly on Ole Miss' front four. Look for him to try several safety and/or LB blitzes to make Garcia make some quick decisions.

Ole Miss has also struggled with the swine flu early this year having as many as 28 players miss practice at its peak. According to reports, the team is now 100% over it.

I look for QB Snead to be erratic for the 1st quarter and the running game and defense to keep Ole Miss in it. Snead will calm down from there and likely score 31+. Fortunately, I look for Garcia to be even more erratic and flustered even moreso because I think Ole Miss has the edge defensively. Ole Miss' defensive line has several NFL caliber players and they have enough depth to be relatively fresh late in the game.

Looking at the board, it seems many are picking South Carolina. I am very strongly on the opposite. Would love to discuss it.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 12, 2005
Messages
341
Tokens
This is more of a situation play for me than a matchup play. Although it does help that SC has a good defense. Ole Miss is ranked too high (IMO), it's a road night game in the SEC against a team that has thrived in recent years in the upset role.

Random Tidbit: Ole Miss hasn't won their SEC opener since their Eli Manning, near-LSU-spoiling, season in 2003 (lost at home 17-14 to the eventual national co-champs). No, I don't think that's a relevant stat, but I do find it interesting as I can see Ole Miss on their way to another 10-win season this year.

-ETC
 

New member
Joined
Aug 31, 2009
Messages
1,921
Tokens
prob gonna break one of my rules, which is dont bet against ball coach! and go with ole miss also, but not sure yet
 

New member
Joined
Sep 19, 2005
Messages
2,131
Tokens
Adding several plays...

Ole Miss -3 at South Carolina (Thursday), 5 units (already posted above)
Missouri -7 vs Nevada (Friday), 1 unit (bought half point)
LSU -13 at MSU, 3 units
Miami -3 at VA Tech, 2 units
GA Tech -2.5 vs UNC, 2 units
Boise -17 at Bowling Green, 1.5 units
Fresno +17 at Cincinnati, 1 unit

Not sure if that will be my final card or not. Might come back and add a unit or two to certain bets. LSU is very likely.
 

Veteran
Joined
Jul 16, 2007
Messages
547
Tokens
Lsu line is dropping might wanna wait on that.


check my write up.. on ole miss and miami big
 

New member
Joined
Sep 19, 2005
Messages
2,131
Tokens
Yep...

I went ahead and took LSU at -13 and now see it at 12.5.

Very surprising to me. The history of the LSU/MSU series is not remotely close. MSU covered last year for the first time in a looooong time.

Good chance I add to this bet before Saturday.

Glad to hear you're on Miami as well.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,810
Messages
13,573,502
Members
100,872
Latest member
ninja_coder
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com