Second Half Trends at 11-2 and 8-1 for the year

braves112299 · Sep 29, 2003

With teams leading by 14.5 or more points at the half the under is 11-1 on the season for 2nd half.

[This message was edited by Canadian Underdawg on October 01, 2003 at 12:00 PM.]

[This message was edited by Canadian Underdawg on October 01, 2003 at 12:01 PM.]

RPM · Sep 30, 2003

GREAT INFO CANADIAN U!~

thanks for posting it brother.

i think this stat is good enough for someone to start a weekly thread pointing out which plays qualify. you interestedin posting it for us? if not remind me and i will do it!~

braves112299 · Sep 30, 2003

13-2 now after last night. I'll try to post it and update it when it occurs. It has been a high percentage trend the last few years.

BigGamesOnly · Sep 30, 2003

In Sunday night's game, Indy was up by 14 and the 2nd half went over. Is this a trend that has played out?

RPM · Sep 30, 2003

biggames,

the trend is for a lead of 14.5 or MORE. the indi game would not have qualified.

BigGamesOnly · Sep 30, 2003

I know RPM. It was off by 0.5 point. I thought the principle would qualify if it were this close.

ATX · Sep 30, 2003

that extra .5 makes a big difference.

1. mental aspect of team down my MORE than 2 TD's. also if the winning team just kicks a FG to open the 2nd that 18 pts looks a LOT bigger than 17 to the team behind.

2. the try for 2, a lot of times it comes down to this on the total.

BigGamesOnly · Sep 30, 2003

ATX:

How come you're always busting my balls?? lol, j/k. I enjoy the discussion.

The difference between being up 14 points and being up 14.5 points is the difference between being up 2 scores and being up 3 scores. Agreed. However, I was thinking that being up 14 points would have similar results. I wonder what the trend is for being up 14 points. Does anyone know?

braves112299 · Oct 1, 2003

Looked it up for quite a few different situations and most either dont have enough games in the situation or are pretty even both ways. The ones that stuck out were:

14.5 or more point lead is actually 11-2 not 13-2 to the UNDER

14 point lead is 3-1 OVER
13 point lead is 5-0 OVER

11-2 UNDER for a team up 15 or more
8-1 OVER for a team up by 13-14

RPM · Oct 1, 2003

that is crazy. it has to be a coincidence. why would as little as a one point difference in the lead have such a HUGE swing in the u/o results???

thoraxx · Oct 1, 2003

here are some second half trends for you

1. NFL Favorites who are up double digts at the half are 898-52 since 1989 and they outscored their opponent by and average of 10.5 pts to 9.2 pts in the second half

2. Double digit favorites who are up double digits at the half are 180-6 in the NFL since 1989 and they outsocred their opponent by an average 0f 11.3 pts to 7.8 pts in the second half

3. Double digit underdogs who are up double digits at the half are 29-4 SU and 33-0 ATS in the NFL since 1989. They were on the average outscored by 7.7 to 11.7 pts in the second half.

4. Since 1989 and nfl team with double-digit half-time lead is 1228-136 straight up winning by an average of 14.9 ppg. The team with the double digit lead was outscored in the second half by a margin of 9.8 to 10.1 pts.

braves112299 · Oct 1, 2003

Looked them up for last year but used 21 as the second half o/u so the results are a bit off but for the most part the totals werent even close to the 21.

2002-- 13 to 14 point lead
16-13 in foavour of the under so that trend may just be a coincidence

2002-- 15+ point lead 29-10 in favour of the under

So last year and this year combined when a team is up 15 or more at the half the under is 42-12 hitting at 78%.

RPM · Oct 1, 2003

this is assuming a second half line of 21???

i thought you were using the actual lines.

lots of those type of games have second half u/o lines of around 17

BigGamesOnly · Oct 1, 2003

Are these kinds of trends available on any web sites? I know www.statfox.com has them but they charge for some of their stats.

gak555 · Oct 1, 2003

Can Du - Do you know how this trend has done over the last few years? Also, have you done similar studies on NBA 2nd half unders ?
Thanks
GAK

xpanda · Oct 1, 2003

Originally posted by Canadian Underdawg:
Looked them up for last year but used 21 as the second half o/u so the results are a bit off but for the most part the totals werent even close to the 21.

QUOTE]

When you analyzed this season's trends, did you use the actual O/U or did you simply use 21 for each?

braves112299 · Oct 1, 2003

This years stats are correct. But for last years I didnt have the second half totals so I had to make assumptions on the totals based on the teams playing. If any one knows where I can find second half lines for last year I could go back and look them all up.

CU

BoZZi · Oct 1, 2003

RPM, you're wrong buddy usually those lines are at 20.5 or 21.5 most of the time.

RPM · Oct 2, 2003

bozzi,

not true. the second half line depends greatly on the teams playing. if baltimore was playing tampa bay, and t.b. had a 18-3 lead at the half, there is no way the line would be 20.5 or higher. both teams have solid defenses.