SEC Action 11/13 - Any thoughts

[dr_smith316]

Bama +7.5 @ LSU
When the Tide travels to Death Valley its going to BE PHYSICAL AND HARD HITTING; Bama is bowl eligible and anything else this year is gravy for Shula and his coaching staff. Any time you sport the #1 defense you are always going to be in the game; LSU has struggled with teams from the great State of Alabama this year and that trend continues in what might be one of the better games of the day.

by the way, Bama has been working on an offensive package where Tyrone Prothro runs at QB; this may be exclusive for the Auburn game but could be used in this one in short yardage situations. he is actually the teams leading receiver (16 rec, 13.4 ypc) and is a David Palmer type guy apparently...

South Carolina +7 @ Florida
Still don't understand the logic behind this line; yes Florida has more talent but the lame duck administration is reeling after the loss to Georgia, Spurrier turns them down and now they face a SC team that already is bowl eligible (i.e. Lou "Granny" Holtz won't have them so uptight that they choke - as normally occurs); love SC getting points, maybe even a good ML pick for less also

Mississippi @ Arkansas -9.5
Problems abound in Oxford; 3 QBs have created 3 factions on the team. Furthermore there seems to be some "dissent" among the coaching staff about the best personnel for the defensive backfield. This is not good when travelling to the hardest place to play in the SEC since 1998. But 9.5 points may be too much or a team without much offensive consistency...

UGA @ Auburn -4.5
I have been thinking about this one and I am divided on my opinion; here are 2 scenarios:

1. Auburn realizes that with OU and USC winning, coupled with a Tennessee loss and the fact that Erik Ainge is gone for the remainder of the season (more than likely, reports are he will not be likely to play in Atlanta) that their shot at a National Championship is essentially over - unless a miracle happens like OU losing to Baylor... That being said the team comes out and plays completely demoralized and the BCS gods are happy now that the undefeateds are winnowed down to 5 (although Wisconsin
still can stumble and UTah and Boise are simply non-factors)

2. with this aforementioned realization, Auburn comes and and delivers one of the all-time great ass kickings - I'm talking James Caan, Godfather 1, trash can involved BEATING!

The more I look at the numbers the more I tend to lean toward Auburn but Iwill definitely wait this one out until Friday evening or Saturday morning.

BATTLE FOR THE SEC EAST CELLAR - Vandy -2 @ kentucky (O/U 43.5) - TOSS UP with a slight edge to the Dores and the under in this battle of hapless teams.

Other games outside the SEC:
Pitt +11 @ ND - Notre Dame struggled to pull of the upset against an overrated TN team; I think the panthers catch the golden domers at just the right time and keep this one very close

Nebraska @ OU -29.5 - its a lot of points but the Huskers are bad... I mean really bad... I saying...

Miami +3.5 @ UVA - who would have thought that the Wahoos would be favored in this one; the luster is off the canes but can anyone say FSU - Virginia plays uptight and loses this one to a very angry Miami team

Arizona +34.5 @ USC - love Zona's run-D; maybe it finally shows up and
keeps this with reason - hell, even if SC only wins by 28 it was still an ass kicking

BOL to everyone

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[Imareb]

OM is technically down to 2 QB's. Spurlock barely played against Auburn and may not see the field against AR. Lane and Flatt will have a field day against a pourous AR defense. Question is, can OM's "D" stop Jones. Play over in OM/AR

 

[DanTanna]

Ole Miss is playing Ark in Fayetteville. Fayetteville is not the hardest place to play in the SEC. Little Rock could be, since they're undefeated there. But their record at Fayetteville is average.

 

[jwunderdog]

Auburn has not proven they can win without running the football,0-4 last 2 years when gain less then 125 yds on the ground.Look for Georgia to force Auburn the throw.We will see if Auburn's QB has improved over last year, or if the running game has just made him look good? On a side note I would love Georgia in this spot but they gave up over 200 yards to FLa on the ground. GL

 

[Imareb]

I am with you J! I am not going to play this game Aub/GA. There are way too many ?s for me.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

good Dr.,

we're thinking alike this week...definitely with you on South Carolina +7 here...there offense is clicking...Williamson is a stud...back up QB is better than starter Pinkins...Florida is undisciplined...Zook not that strong at home...

also with you on Alabama +7.5...solid pick...saw Protho score that TD from QB against Mississippi St. last week...their D is legit and they should take LSU down to the wire, even at their place, even at night...

with you on Miami +3.5 as well...feel that Berlin will play better on the road...Miami's speed at WR will be key here to exploiting Virginia's only real weakness on D, their secondary...Miami run D should play better as well...

only game we disagree on is Auburn/ Georgia...know that a lot of people are on Auburn...but like Georgia here in what should be a very close, hard fought game...GL

 

[dr_smith316]

Ole Miss is playing Ark in Fayetteville. Fayetteville is not the hardest place to play in the SEC. Little Rock could be, since they're undefeated there. But their record at Fayetteville is average.

Since 1998 when Nutt first arrived Arkansas has the best home record in the SEC Arkansas 29-5 .853 percent. Most of these have come in F'ville. Next Tennessee 27-5 .843...

 

[SSI]

road team wins the aub/ga game, check richt and greene's road record in sec, believe only loss was to lsu last year (probably why the line is dropping), slight lean to ga but basically a game for me to enjoy and not wager.

I really like LSU on the backside of a teaser with Wisconsin,,,, this is a game for LSU to recapture the spotlight, all the talk about bama's D but ill take LSU's D.. Saban is waiting for a game such as this (ESPN, saturday night in baton rouge) to get his team back in the spotlight.. LSU has one loss to Georgia, the other loss (if you can call it that) was to an auburn team that they basically outplayed the whole game but the last drive, then it should have went to OT. anyone remember this game?? I believe LSU gets this win and saban gets a nice bowl game and some national attention again.. Bama's QB will be lost against the LSU defense..

no opinion on the other games..

 

[dr_smith316]

SSI,

yeah that road trend is always the hardest part in deciding this series; but I am not sold on UGA offensive consistency - they made a talented LSU secondary look like Baton ROuge High School and then against a young TN secondary (that Campbell scorched at home) didn't move the ball well until it was too late. Auburn on the other hand has played consistently since the UGA loss last year in Athens. This Auburn team has shown it can play in the spotlight - which last years team could not do. The lower the number the more I like Auburn;

good luck on your pick though

 

[SSI]

dr smith, merely stating a lean to GA, check richt and greene's road record.. i will have no money on it, as i prefer aub to win...

My only play on saturday will probably be a teaser (LSU/Wis) -- of course something else could open up..

 

[dr_smith316]

fair enough - I like a play teasing LSU, my thought on taking Bama was this game going deep into the 4th may be even OT ad LSU winning SU - Bama's QB always looks lost and that should continue Saturday night in front of a very rwody crowd;

last word on the Aub game - I probably will not play either being a life long Tiger fan and hoping that this could be THE year I know my judgement is not what it needs to be

thanks for your input; BOL

 

[SSI]

i hope aub wins as well... i have a good friend who will be there, big aub fan.. jason campbell may have to win this game as ga may very well shut down the backs..

as for LSU/Bama, this is a great setup for lsu and may be what saban has been waiting on.. shula against saban is a no-contest.... ive been wrong before however, so anyway should be a good day for football...