Is Joba Chamberlain and the Yankees bullpen along with potent lineup at home worth -245. How can we quantify a 6 Inning pitcher? That would leave 2 innings before Rivera. Coming off an emotional subway series against a weak hitting Mets squad? Is this a spot for Seattle to scoop one game?
Morrow is no charm but did have past success vs a Yankees team holding them for 5 for 28. Seattle has been rolling of late. Bullpen strength, timely hitting and good defense. Average against Yankee bullpen is 4.47 while 3.64 against Seattle.
Tampa? Small favorite on the road?
La Angels with Saunders as small dog?
I would start entering a (small) position on the Mariners if they reach +230 or higher. I am a little bit more bearish on this team compared to the marketplace, as I predict a little bit less sustainability with their lineup and bullpen performance compared to others.
I woulb be careful in adjusting Morrow's worth due to past pitching performances against a certain team. Firstly, he is a completely different pitcher this year compared to last year, and until he is able to locate his pitches with a lot more consistencey, you can throw out any historical performances as a predictive tool. Secondly, Morrow is a high variance pitcher whose pitching results is more correlated to whether he has his "stuff" rather than the fundamental lineup he faces. He has always been hard to hit, and walks have gotten him into trouble. Because the Yankees struggled to hit him last year does not suggest they don't match up well against him, because they do. Teams that have hitters that are patient at the plate and stockpiled with left handed bats is what Morrow has historically struggled against, and what the Yankees possess.
In my opinion, the Rays warrant being even a higher favorite. We have two teams that deviated from fundamental form during the first quarter of the season (the Blue Jays overachieving and Rays underachieving) and now appear to be heading in the direction they should be heading. The marketplace seems to want to hold on to false hopes for the Blue Jays (their lineup is simply not strong enough to contend with the other three AL east contenders) and their young arms are simply not proven to last an entire season. Richmond has looked good on the mound this year and hasn't shown signs of regression. However, I would be hesistant to price him anywhere near current form. The lack of regression signs is a good thing for Rays backers as usually when regression sets in on young pitchers, it is too late to exlpoit any pricing inefficiencies.
This is good situational spot for Saunders and the Angels warrant being small favs in my opinion. The Rangers, much like the Mariners (and to a smaller extent the Blue Jays) are not as good as their receord indicates, and the market is not discounting this notion enough. I am interested to see where the market takes this line heading into the lineup card dissimination.
Best of luck today.
