I am starting a new thread as a symbolic effort to turn over a new leaf. I am going to attempt to dramatically alter my betting patterns and hopefully avoid some of the pitfalls and traps that have recently plagued my overall success.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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At one point this season (on 5~12~7 to be exact) I was +44.94 units on baseball. Not bad considering that I did not even start posting baseball plays until 4~27~7. Especially when you consider that this is my very first season ever betting on bases. But alas, I cooled off and found myself hovering around +30 units for the better part of this last month until I hit rock bottom on Friday (6~1~7), when I posted an unusually big card (13 plays) and I went 3~10, losing an ego deflating –19.66 units in one single night! Embarrassment and demoralization are some of the tamer words that come to mind.<o></o>
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My problem? Betting heavy –200 favorites night in and night out and not recognizing the fact that baseball is distinctly different than the sports that I normally bet (football and basketball). I have been a very successful football bettor (my best sport by far) for years. And I only started betting bases on a whim this season as a way to pass the time until fall arrives. But what I failed to realize is that baseball is purely a price-driven numbers game ~ one that is not dependant on spreads ~ a concept that was at first pretty foreign to me.<o></o>
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By betting on heavy favorites, I won the majority of the time, but when I did lose, I lost badly. It was quite common for me to go 8~2 one night and then 6~2 the next night, winning between 10 to 15 units in the process. But on nights when I went 4~4 or 4~3, I was lucky to break even and sometimes found my units going backwards. Hell, I only made $70 a few days ago after going 6~3 on the night due to losing $440 and $420 on two 2-unit bets placed on –220 and –210 type favorites.<o></o>
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In other words, the price of the baseball market irascibly caught up with me and made it impossible for me to continue my ways. I have now realized that I need to start betting doggies and paying more attention to prices, rather than simply betting on who I thought would actually win the game. BuffetGambler said it best when he said, “To justify an underdog bet, all you have to do is think that the dog has a better chance of winning than the price indicates. Period.”<o></o>
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Those words and my recent experiences made it apparent that I had to lose my current mentality. It allowed me to realize that it is indeed to prudent to sometimes bet on a team that didn’t have the better chance of winning. This is baseball after all, and often the unthinkable and illogical does indeed occur ~ therefore I have to be willing to bet on teams that very well may have a greater chance of losing, since there’s greater value in doing so over the long haul.<o></o>
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I will still continue to cap the games the way I always have ~ but I have to be willing to bet the other side if the market price dictates doing so. And when it comes to favorites, I have to be willing to walk away from a bet if the price is too steep ~ because no matter how certain I may feel that the Angels or Red Sox will beat a team like the Rangers or the Royals, the price matters. A lot.<o></o>
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So I will put my ego in my back pocket and care a lot less now about my W~L record. I will start to focus on my units and the price of my wagers. I will try to accept having losing days and stick with this new philosophy, since it is the only way I will ever obtain long term success with bases and succeed in rebuilding my profits until the football season finally arrives.
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Many of you probably recognize me from my posted plays on Bookie Buster’s daily Service Play threads and also from my work on the “Service Play” and “Service Fade” spreadsheets that I updated daily. My involvement with the spreadsheets began strictly out of curiosity and from a general skepticism of the records being touted by a lot of the major services. So I began tracking the service play records in an effort to confirm or deny the validity of their records and claims. And then later, a few weeks into the season, I began posting my own plays on Bookie Buster’s daily thread and keeping a running season record there.<o></o>
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I will no longer be contributing to the forum via Bookie Buster’s daily Service Play threads or updating those Service Play and Service Fade spreadsheets. But please do not misconstrue my non-involvement on Bookie Buster’s thread as meaning that I do not find value in what he does for the forum. To the contrary, I think that Bookie Buster does this forum an immense service and I want to personally thank him for his efforts and for allowing me to be a part of the process.<o></o>
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It just makes more sense for me to start my own independent thread now, since my current record and handicapping style was never based off of the service plays. I always have and I always will cap all of my own games (for better or worse) and I merely viewed the service plays as one extra piece of information amongst many other pieces of information that I used to confirm or deny my own capping methods to determine the outcomes of games.
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Sorry for the long narrative (I tend to ramble on as you can probably tell). But I figured that I owed an explanation to those of you who are familiar with me from Bookie Buster’s thread, as well as those of you who have no idea of who I am.<o></o>
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I will be rolling my previous record over to this thread now. Wish me luck as I attempt to ignore wins and losses and focus on price and on value betting for the rest of the season.<o></o>
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Sure, I will no doubt still bet on some heavy favorites from time to time. But I will also be looking for more value as I take a chance on more doggies and allow price to dictate which bets I choose to pull the trigger on, and which bets I choose to walk away from.<o></o>
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>At one point this season (on 5~12~7 to be exact) I was +44.94 units on baseball. Not bad considering that I did not even start posting baseball plays until 4~27~7. Especially when you consider that this is my very first season ever betting on bases. But alas, I cooled off and found myself hovering around +30 units for the better part of this last month until I hit rock bottom on Friday (6~1~7), when I posted an unusually big card (13 plays) and I went 3~10, losing an ego deflating –19.66 units in one single night! Embarrassment and demoralization are some of the tamer words that come to mind.<o
></o><o
></o>My problem? Betting heavy –200 favorites night in and night out and not recognizing the fact that baseball is distinctly different than the sports that I normally bet (football and basketball). I have been a very successful football bettor (my best sport by far) for years. And I only started betting bases on a whim this season as a way to pass the time until fall arrives. But what I failed to realize is that baseball is purely a price-driven numbers game ~ one that is not dependant on spreads ~ a concept that was at first pretty foreign to me.<o
></o><o
></o>By betting on heavy favorites, I won the majority of the time, but when I did lose, I lost badly. It was quite common for me to go 8~2 one night and then 6~2 the next night, winning between 10 to 15 units in the process. But on nights when I went 4~4 or 4~3, I was lucky to break even and sometimes found my units going backwards. Hell, I only made $70 a few days ago after going 6~3 on the night due to losing $440 and $420 on two 2-unit bets placed on –220 and –210 type favorites.<o
></o><o
></o>In other words, the price of the baseball market irascibly caught up with me and made it impossible for me to continue my ways. I have now realized that I need to start betting doggies and paying more attention to prices, rather than simply betting on who I thought would actually win the game. BuffetGambler said it best when he said, “To justify an underdog bet, all you have to do is think that the dog has a better chance of winning than the price indicates. Period.”<o
></o><o
></o>Those words and my recent experiences made it apparent that I had to lose my current mentality. It allowed me to realize that it is indeed to prudent to sometimes bet on a team that didn’t have the better chance of winning. This is baseball after all, and often the unthinkable and illogical does indeed occur ~ therefore I have to be willing to bet on teams that very well may have a greater chance of losing, since there’s greater value in doing so over the long haul.<o
></o><o
></o>I will still continue to cap the games the way I always have ~ but I have to be willing to bet the other side if the market price dictates doing so. And when it comes to favorites, I have to be willing to walk away from a bet if the price is too steep ~ because no matter how certain I may feel that the Angels or Red Sox will beat a team like the Rangers or the Royals, the price matters. A lot.<o
></o><o
></o>So I will put my ego in my back pocket and care a lot less now about my W~L record. I will start to focus on my units and the price of my wagers. I will try to accept having losing days and stick with this new philosophy, since it is the only way I will ever obtain long term success with bases and succeed in rebuilding my profits until the football season finally arrives.
___________________________________________________________________________<o
></o><o
></o>Many of you probably recognize me from my posted plays on Bookie Buster’s daily Service Play threads and also from my work on the “Service Play” and “Service Fade” spreadsheets that I updated daily. My involvement with the spreadsheets began strictly out of curiosity and from a general skepticism of the records being touted by a lot of the major services. So I began tracking the service play records in an effort to confirm or deny the validity of their records and claims. And then later, a few weeks into the season, I began posting my own plays on Bookie Buster’s daily thread and keeping a running season record there.<o
></o><o
></o>I will no longer be contributing to the forum via Bookie Buster’s daily Service Play threads or updating those Service Play and Service Fade spreadsheets. But please do not misconstrue my non-involvement on Bookie Buster’s thread as meaning that I do not find value in what he does for the forum. To the contrary, I think that Bookie Buster does this forum an immense service and I want to personally thank him for his efforts and for allowing me to be a part of the process.<o
></o><o
></o>It just makes more sense for me to start my own independent thread now, since my current record and handicapping style was never based off of the service plays. I always have and I always will cap all of my own games (for better or worse) and I merely viewed the service plays as one extra piece of information amongst many other pieces of information that I used to confirm or deny my own capping methods to determine the outcomes of games.
<o
></o>Sorry for the long narrative (I tend to ramble on as you can probably tell). But I figured that I owed an explanation to those of you who are familiar with me from Bookie Buster’s thread, as well as those of you who have no idea of who I am.<o
></o><o
></o>I will be rolling my previous record over to this thread now. Wish me luck as I attempt to ignore wins and losses and focus on price and on value betting for the rest of the season.<o
></o><o
></o>Sure, I will no doubt still bet on some heavy favorites from time to time. But I will also be looking for more value as I take a chance on more doggies and allow price to dictate which bets I choose to pull the trigger on, and which bets I choose to walk away from.<o
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