~Scrappy Packers Squad vs the Cowboys~

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*****DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH] projecting win probability [ Packers vs Cowboys] by Harold Johnson NFL Analyst, handicapper

The Cowboys are fresh off a big performance versus an overmatched Washington team, bagging 31 first downs and 440 total yards (309 passing) in the win. The defense generated three turnovers and gave up just 12 first downs, so it was a nice all-around effort. Dallas hadn’t cracked 20 points in three consecutive games prior to that; they’ll certainly need to get into the end zone a few times in order to have some breathing room against a scrappy Packers squad. Green Bay, they managed 24 first downs and 432 total yards (308 passing) against the rival Bears in the final week of the regular season. It’s been a white-knuckle ride along the home stretch for the Packers; seven of the last nine games have been decided by eight points or fewer. You could make a case for Green Bay here if they can keep Dallas’ offense off the field, but I don’t think they’ll quite get into a cover. Dallas will pick up a victory at home on Sunday when hosting the Green Bay Packers and cover money line, this price is at -$365 will move big time before the game. This my friends is going to be whale money big time, you can bet the line move from -7 1/2 by game time. Dallas is scoring an average of 29.9 points per game which is first in the NFL, while holding opponents to 18.5 points per game which is fifth. Green Bay is only 12th in scoring, averaging 22.5 points per game and 10th in defense allowing 20.8 points per game.

So, I'm sure Rx members you know where my money is going at this price!!!!
 
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I like Dallas, but not the points. I prefer an NFC future, or a 6 point teaser if I can find a team to pair them with.
 
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~Written By Tyler Maher contributor to DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders~

This is the most lopsided matchup in the NFC this weekend with the Cowboys listed as -$365 home favorites on the money line. Top to bottom, Dallas has arguably the most talented roster in the NFL. The Cowboys led the league in scoring at 29.9 points per game. They allowed just 18.5 points per game (fifth in NFL). Pro Bowl quarterback Dak Prescott is coming off a career year, leading the NFL in passing touchdowns (36) and completions (410). He’s only 2-4 in the playoffs but is 2-1 in the Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, this will be Jordan Love’s postseason debut.

Love led Green Bay to the playoffs in his first full year as a starter, ranking second to Prescott in passing TDs (32) and finishing seventh in passing yards (4,159). He struggled with turnovers early in the year but has just one interception over his last eight games. Love doesn’t have as much talent around him as Prescott, but the Packers are above average on both sides of the ball. Green Bay ranks 12th in offensive scoring and 10th in defensive scoring. Both teams are hot coming into this matchup. The Packers won six of their last eight games to make the playoffs, while Dallas won seven of its last nine games to beat the Philadelphia Eagles for the division.

The Cowboys’ home-field advantage is a major factor here. Dallas is 8-0 at home this season, whereas Green Bay is 4-5 on the road. Neither team has an obvious edge at head coach. The Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy is more experienced and has won a Super Bowl. He’ll also be extra motivated to beat his successor, Matt LaFleur, after getting fired by the Packers in 2018. Both coaches have been criticized for coming up short in the playoffs after dominant regular seasons, so neither has recent history on his side. Dallas is more experienced and more talented on both sides of the ball.

 
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Dallas Cowboys

PlayerAnytime TD Probability
CeeDee Lamb66.4%
Tony Pollard56.2%
Jake Ferguson42.4%
Brandin Cooks36.0%
Dak Prescott22.2%
 
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My Bets early listed as

Cowboys' money line -$365X 3 press

7-point 2 team teaser Cowboys - 1/2 point & Bills -3
 
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DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders [Cleveland OH] With Bobby Lancer Exclusive ratings

An elite Cowboys defense powered by NFL's best pass rush.

Cowboys' defense this season

NFL RANK
PPG Allowed18.55th
Total YPG Allowed299.75th
Pass YPG Allowed186.45th
QB Pressure Rate45%1st
Average Time to Pressure2.31st
Sack%8.3%7th
Completion Pct Allowed60.5%4th
TD-INT Allowed21-178th
  1. Lamb’s 102.9 receiving yards per game are 6.4 more than his prop total for Sunday’s contest.
  2. Lamb has totaled more than 96.5 receiving yards in nine of 17 games this year.
  3. Lamb’s season average of 102.9 receiving yards is 23.4 more than his average over/under (79.5).
  4. Lamb has gone over on his receiving yards prop bet in 58.8% of his games (10 of 17).
  5. In 10 of 17 games this year, Lamb has a touchdown catch (with more than one TD on two of those occasions).
  1. My Bet. CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Over 96.5 (-115)

 
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Don't get fooled into remembering what this Eagles team was last year. Philadelphia is limping into the playoffs, sitting at 11-6 but losers of five of its last six games. The Eagles past two losses have been particularly troubling, falling to two of the NFL's worst teams in the Giants and Cardinals. This team has issues throughout, and it starts with uninspiring play-calling and shoddy tackling and coverage on defense. The Eagles have been one of the worst tackling units in football and are getting gashed any which way you choose. Once an elite run defense, they've been anything but lately, and the secondary has been a problem all season long. Whether it was losing both coordinators or regression from players and the coaching staff that's left, this Philadelphia team is flat-out bad. We'll have to wait and see if wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith can play this week; both are dealing with injuries that would severely limit what the Eagles are able to do.
 

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Harry, I love the teaser. Easy money. BOL with all of your plays.
 
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Written by Bobby Lancer NFL Analyst Handicapper with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH]

The Keys to Victory: Eagles

Jalen Hurts’ latest injury could not have come at a worse time. Already struggling with accuracy while tossing five total picks over the past four games, the finger injury on his throwing hand is reportedly not serious. But with receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith both nursing injuries, and top rusher on the shelf with an unidentified illness, the Eagles are likely to see both their defense and offensive depth tested on Monday night.

If either Brown or Smith are unable to go, opportunity could knock for veteran Julio Jones, who has been used sparingly since joining the team midseason but busted out for two TD catches versus Arizona two weeks ago.

The Keys to Victory: Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield was blunt in the assessment of his injuries when asked on Sunday where he hurt the most, responding “a little bit all over”. But it looks like it will take more than rib and ankle injuries to keep the former first overall pick from seeing his first playoff action in three years. The question is whether the Buccaneers offensive line can adequately protect a hobbled Mayfield from a Philly pass defense that recorded 43 sacks this season, but also ranked 31st in TD passes allowed, with 43. All that said, it would not be surprising to see Mayfield and the Bucs lean more on their ground game on Monday night.

Rachaad White has provided the spark in the backfield this season while rushing for 990 yards including 75 yards on Sunday. However, the Bucs have managed to score just one rushing TD over the past four weeks.
 

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I lean dallas as well, pub money taking line down to Dallas -7 now... trendy dog... and I don't like that trend...!
 
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Dallas -$240 1st half a press > if reverse bet] game -$365X 3 press

Dallas -$240 1st half a press > if reverse bet] -$160 4th quarter press [if reverse bet] with game -$365X 3 press

In order for the remaining bets to have action you must win the first bet. If the first bet loses or pushes, there will be no subsequent action. As each choice wins, there will be action on the following bet. There may be up to 15 selections in one if bet. Take into account that correlation restrictions for these types of bets are the same as they are for parlays In the same way than a parlay, an if bet links together 2 or more individual plays. However, unlike a parlay, an if bet is not an all-or-nothing bet: the individual plays are still individual wagers and pay at the listed money line if they win. 2 team reverse press consists of multiple overlapping press if Bets

All Bets Made at The D Circa Sportsbook/ Downtown Vegas
 

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