Scalp/Middle observation...

[Woody0]

I try for middles in live action if the game looks reasonable for see-saw action. Tonight I had Indy-2.5 and Giants+3.5; +5; and +6.5.

 

[Aceking]

thanks for the tips.

 

[Doug]

Okay. Thanks

Icey axed me questions for about 2 hours !

:missingte

Seemed like a nice chap !

 

[anxietyattack]

In game wagering at BOS was a middler's dream. I'm sure many of you
were addicted to Bet on Sports in game lines especially last year on the
monday night games. I know i couldn't leave the puter. Now that BOS is gone
things seem so different. There opionated lines were getting too good
to be true. So far it seems like just about everything good thing in this
industry since i started in '99 has come to an end. Sad but true.

 

[Fishhead]

In game wagering at BOS was a middler's dream. I'm sure many of you
were addicted to Bet on Sports in game lines especially last year on the
monday night games. I know i couldn't leave the puter. Now that BOS is gone
things seem so different. There opionated lines were getting too good
to be true. So far it seems like just about everything good thing in this
industry since i started in '99 has come to an end. Sad but true.

Made 50x at BOS compared to what I lost there when they closed shop.

The risk vs. reward was well worth it for me personally.

 

[X-Files]

Icey axed me questions for about 2 hours !

:missingte

Seemed like a nice chap !

You should have given him Fishhead's number ;

 

[Fishhead]

You should have given him Fishhead's number ;

Could one imagine a three-way conversation between Ice, Doug, and myself?


:ears:ICE

:fatboy: DOUG

:bbsmile: FISH

 

[Iceman]

Could one imagine a three-way conversation between Ice, Doug, and myself?


:ears:ICE

:fatboy: DOUG

:bbsmile: FISH

Fish,
you name the time and place, I will buy ALL the beer.


sharp guy doug is and very helpfull, could have kept tallking but I had to get up for work in the morning.

I am ALWAYS willing to learn.

 

[sean1]

How can people not middle???

With a lot of sign up bonuses and ENDLESS reup bonuses, it is near impossible to lose middling.

Before you play any middles, I highly recommend you buy a chart of how often games land on different numbers and then convert that chart to the vig you can give on each number and still be profitable.

I hear about people middling horrible numbers.

 

[sean1]

One thing to note is::: LINES get sharper as the season progresses.

Fewer games will land on the number now than in week 10...

 

[Doug]

Do you attempt a 4, Sean ?

Looks like 3%, so no go, but tempting, I usually pass that one.

 

[Iceman]

Do you attempt a 4, Sean ?

Looks like 3%, so no go, but tempting, I usually pass that one.

reduced juice on one side and it is close but yet not profitable, need 4% ( 6 or the 10)

 

[Santo]

3% is about right for CFB on the 4. I have it even lower than that in NFL.. I pass it...

Nobody ever gave me free info... Ice is just very persistent.. Had some exchanges with him myself

 

[Doug]

I meant NFL. I can get +4.5, -3.5 but at -110.

It just seems like this should hit 5% +, but the data says no, so I'll likely wait for +4.5 +100 at SIA, which I expect to appear about 1-2 hours before game, and pass the -3.5 -110.

 

[Doug]

reduced juice on one side and it is close but yet not profitable, need 4% ( 6 or the 10)

at -110 you need to 1 out of 21 to break even which is 4.76 %.

Am I off ?

7 and 10 seem like the realistic numbers to middle NFL at -110.

I'll do :

+7/ -6
+7.5/ -6.5
+10/ -9
+10.5/ -9.5

others require lower juice

some middles are junk, like -10.5/ +12.5, fine for hoops, but not football.

 

[Iceman]

at -110 you need to 1 out of 21 to break even which is 4.76 %.

Am I off ?

7 and 10 seem like the realistic numbers to middle NFL at -110.

I'll do :

+7/ -6
+7.5/ -6.5
+10/ -9
+10.5/ -9.5

others require lower juice

some middles are junk, like -10.5/ +12.5, fine for hoops, but not football.

agreed. I meant 6 or 10 with reduced juice on 1 side is barely ok

 

[Santo]

I work on ~1.1% for 4 on home favs, ~2.3% on road favs for the 4 in NFL, I wouldn't take it at -105/-105

Agree it's illogically low on the TD-FG scenario, but the data (hopefully) doesn't lie.

 

[Iceman]

I work on ~1.1% for 4 on home favs, ~2.3% on road favs for the 4 in NFL, I wouldn't take it at -105/-105

Agree it's illogically low on the TD-FG scenario, but the data (hopefully) doesn't lie.

Santo,

CFB key numbers , are they close to NFL's.

I know you (or someone) in the past stated the only hits 6% or so, is this correct?

 

[sean1]

I generally middle the following numbers when getting 1 point:

NFL 3, 7, 10, 14. 3 you can go well past -110. 7 a bit past.
Totals 37 and 41.

CFB 1, 3, 7, 10, 17, 24, 28, 31. You can go a bit past -110 on 3 and 7.

There are other numbers that work out when getting reduced juice, but I generally find the profit to time involved on other numbers is kind of pointless.

4 and 21 warrant a glance from me if reduced juice.

If getting 1.5 + points, you are prob ok on any side number and 2 points ok on any total.

-Sean

 

[sean1]

Ice, send me your email and I'll send you the chart! You've worked hard enough to deserve it.

Email me at: cash@ Myoldsite.com - It's my handle at Fezz's place if you don't know it.
-Sean