yesterday 1-1 +0.64 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 4-8 (-5.12 units)
Plenty of value today and while I'm not crazy about playing 6 games, I'm certainly not going to lay off any of them for that reason. Good luck everyone.
Tampa Bay +1.65 over NY YANKEES
Tough to go against the Yanks because they are 22 games above .500 and have the best record in the majors. However, they have plenty of losses left in them and this could be one of them. Your always going to pay a premium when wagering on the popular Yanks and that means that there’s always good value going against them. The key is to step in at the right time. Devil Rays are capable of putting up a bunch of runs and as the season progresses, it’s becoming evident that Jon Lieber’s long layoff is starting to take it’s toll. Lieber has allowed 25 hits and 10 earned runs over his last 3 starts and his already unremarkable fastball is losing velocity. Lieber was torched by the Orioles recently and is always in jeopardy of that same fate. Just can’t be confident with him laying this type of lumber and we find tremendous value here against a guy who is potentially in for a very rough second half. Dewon Brazelton, who went 1-6 with a 6.89 ERA in 10 starts for Tampa Bay last season, was called up from the minors last month. After a series of shaky relief outings, he flirted with a no-hitter in his first start of the season. Brazelton yielded a double with two outs in the eighth inning against Florida on June 25, the lone hit he surrendered in a 2-0 victory over the Marlins. He followed that up by surrendering just five hits over five scoreless innings in a 6-2 victory over Toronto on June 30, improving to 2-0. He lost 4-2 to the Orioles in his latest start, however, his ERA is 1.89 in 3 starts and while 3 games doesn’t prove much, we have to believe his confidence is much higher and there’s no denying he’s pitching very well. Yanks may get plenty more runs to beat us, however, at this price, the gamble is a good one. Play Tampa Bay +1.65 (Risking 1.6 units).
Kansas City +1.60 over BALTIMORE
Orioles are just a brutal team and should never be this high a price over anyone. Who the f**k are the Orioles to be 1.70? There 11 games under .500 for crying out loud. They’ve lost 3 in a row and 5 of their past 7 and Sidney Ponson has been laboring big time all year. They were shut out last night by Darrell May and his 6.20 ERA. Orioles have now scored 4 runs in their past 3 games. Rafael Palmeiro is hitting .243 and runs like Rosie O’Donnell. Bip Roberts leads off with his .258 average. This is a bad team with a horrible bullpen and while the Royals aren’t exactly setting the world on fire, they did get Mike Sweeney back last night and he ignited this anemic offense, going 3-4 with 4 RBI’s. Sweeney back in the middle of the lineup changes everything. Bottom line here is value and we don’t care who’s pitching for our side, when we can get a tag like this against this host, you can pencil us in with no questions asked. Huge overlay. Play Kansas City +1.60 (risking 1.6 units).
Pittsburgh –1½ +1.25 over MONTREAL
Pirates continue to play great ball and after an 11-0 blowout win last night, we expect much more of the same here. Game features a pitching mismatch in the Bucs favor and we’ll gladly lay the extra half run here. Rocky Biddle will make his first start of the year after 35 appearances out of the pen. Biddle gets this start by default because the Expos have nobody else to turn to. Three of the team’s starters are on the rack. Biddle has pitched 35 innings and has allowed 34 runs for a 0-4 record and a 8.13 ERA. He’s been torched for 47 hits and 8 round trippers in those 34 innings. What possible motivation do the Expos have here? They play half of their “home games” in San Juan, Puerto Rico, it’s a good day when 7,000 people come out to see them play at home, they're 16 games back before the All-Star break, they're nearly 30 games below .500 and the league talks about folding the team every other day. They’ll also face Kip Wells here who is on a roll of his own. Wells has lasted 20 innings over his last 3 starts, surrendering just 15 hits, 1 jack, and 6 earned runs for a 2.61 ERA over that stretch. Expos want one thing to happen this weekend. That being, Sunday’s game to end quickly so they can go home for 3 days and not think about baseball, that’s if they even know where there home is. Play Pittsburgh –1½ +1.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
NY Mets +1.00 over FLORIDA
Shame on us for missing the Mets last night, however, we’re not about to make that same mistake tonight. Playing hot versus cold is never bad strategy, regardless of who’s pitching and in that department we’re certainly not going with the worst of it. Tom Glavine has been his old self this year and comes into this one with a 6-3 road record and a 2.61 ERA. His ERA on the year is an impressive 2.49. Glavine has allowed just 7 bombs in 122 innings. The Mets have won seven of their last nine to move a season high three games above .500. The defending world champion Marlins have gone the other way, dropping seven of nine to slip back to .500 for the first time since being 1-1. Fish have scored more then 3 times just twice over their past 8 games. Brad Penny is 1-8 lifetime versus the Mets with a 6.75 ERA and will face the best hitting Mets line-up that he’s seen in some time. Not a single argument can me made to go against the Mets here. Play NY Mets +1.00 (Risking 1.6 units).
Arizona +1.30 over SAN FRANCISCO
Not about to pass up a tag against Brett Tomko who is among the most hittable pitchers the game has to offer. Whenever Tomko takes the hill his chances of losing are far greater then winning and we’re absolutely going with the superior hurler here. Brandon Webb’s 3-8 record is one of the more misleading in the league, It’s certainly not a reflection of how good he’s been. For instance, Eric Milton and his 11-2 record has a much worse ERA then Webb. Put Webb on the Phillies and he might be 13-0. Webb hasn’t allowed more then 3 runs, earned or otherwise, over his past 7 starts and hasn’t allowed a single homer in 6 out of those 7. Webb's sinker is so good that hitters have trouble with it when they know it's coming. He throws the pitch 88-91 MPH with live, late action that makes it difficult for hitters to elevate the ball. Although Webb throws his sinkers 70 percent of the time or more, he does not use a four-seam fastball. he also has two other above-average pitches from his over-the-top delivery: a straight changeup he will throw to lefthanded and righthanded hitters, and a curve that he’ll throw anytime in the count. The opposition has hit just .235 against him all year and just .158 against him over his past 4 starts. Ya think the Diamondbacks have a shot here? Can you say value? We can. Play Arizona +1.30 (Risking 1.6 units).
Anaheim –1½ +1.40 over TORONTO
Kelvim Escobar is a front line starter and in fact, has been the Angels most consistent starter all year. His 4 wins in 16 starts may not suggest so, however, the Angels have averaged just one run of support in his 5 losses. Over his last 6 starts, they’ve scored a total of 11 runs. Expect a little extra motivation right across the board here. Escobar will face his former employers for the first time and wants this one badly. His time as a Blue Jay was unpleasant because all Escobar wanted to do was start games but the Blue Jays tried unsuccessfully to make him into a closer. They also used him as a long reliever, middle reliever and a starter but Escobar wasn’t happy. His team-mates are fully aware of his time spent here and their also aware that they haven’t given him much support. He has nasty stuff and when he brings it, he’s one of the best in the game. Angels are healthy and with 7 of the 9 players in the batting order hitting .290 or better (5 of them are over .300) run support should not be an issue today considering the Angels know how badly Escobar wants this one. Play Anaheim –1½ +1.40 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 4-8 (-5.12 units)
Plenty of value today and while I'm not crazy about playing 6 games, I'm certainly not going to lay off any of them for that reason. Good luck everyone.
Tampa Bay +1.65 over NY YANKEES
Tough to go against the Yanks because they are 22 games above .500 and have the best record in the majors. However, they have plenty of losses left in them and this could be one of them. Your always going to pay a premium when wagering on the popular Yanks and that means that there’s always good value going against them. The key is to step in at the right time. Devil Rays are capable of putting up a bunch of runs and as the season progresses, it’s becoming evident that Jon Lieber’s long layoff is starting to take it’s toll. Lieber has allowed 25 hits and 10 earned runs over his last 3 starts and his already unremarkable fastball is losing velocity. Lieber was torched by the Orioles recently and is always in jeopardy of that same fate. Just can’t be confident with him laying this type of lumber and we find tremendous value here against a guy who is potentially in for a very rough second half. Dewon Brazelton, who went 1-6 with a 6.89 ERA in 10 starts for Tampa Bay last season, was called up from the minors last month. After a series of shaky relief outings, he flirted with a no-hitter in his first start of the season. Brazelton yielded a double with two outs in the eighth inning against Florida on June 25, the lone hit he surrendered in a 2-0 victory over the Marlins. He followed that up by surrendering just five hits over five scoreless innings in a 6-2 victory over Toronto on June 30, improving to 2-0. He lost 4-2 to the Orioles in his latest start, however, his ERA is 1.89 in 3 starts and while 3 games doesn’t prove much, we have to believe his confidence is much higher and there’s no denying he’s pitching very well. Yanks may get plenty more runs to beat us, however, at this price, the gamble is a good one. Play Tampa Bay +1.65 (Risking 1.6 units).
Kansas City +1.60 over BALTIMORE
Orioles are just a brutal team and should never be this high a price over anyone. Who the f**k are the Orioles to be 1.70? There 11 games under .500 for crying out loud. They’ve lost 3 in a row and 5 of their past 7 and Sidney Ponson has been laboring big time all year. They were shut out last night by Darrell May and his 6.20 ERA. Orioles have now scored 4 runs in their past 3 games. Rafael Palmeiro is hitting .243 and runs like Rosie O’Donnell. Bip Roberts leads off with his .258 average. This is a bad team with a horrible bullpen and while the Royals aren’t exactly setting the world on fire, they did get Mike Sweeney back last night and he ignited this anemic offense, going 3-4 with 4 RBI’s. Sweeney back in the middle of the lineup changes everything. Bottom line here is value and we don’t care who’s pitching for our side, when we can get a tag like this against this host, you can pencil us in with no questions asked. Huge overlay. Play Kansas City +1.60 (risking 1.6 units).
Pittsburgh –1½ +1.25 over MONTREAL
Pirates continue to play great ball and after an 11-0 blowout win last night, we expect much more of the same here. Game features a pitching mismatch in the Bucs favor and we’ll gladly lay the extra half run here. Rocky Biddle will make his first start of the year after 35 appearances out of the pen. Biddle gets this start by default because the Expos have nobody else to turn to. Three of the team’s starters are on the rack. Biddle has pitched 35 innings and has allowed 34 runs for a 0-4 record and a 8.13 ERA. He’s been torched for 47 hits and 8 round trippers in those 34 innings. What possible motivation do the Expos have here? They play half of their “home games” in San Juan, Puerto Rico, it’s a good day when 7,000 people come out to see them play at home, they're 16 games back before the All-Star break, they're nearly 30 games below .500 and the league talks about folding the team every other day. They’ll also face Kip Wells here who is on a roll of his own. Wells has lasted 20 innings over his last 3 starts, surrendering just 15 hits, 1 jack, and 6 earned runs for a 2.61 ERA over that stretch. Expos want one thing to happen this weekend. That being, Sunday’s game to end quickly so they can go home for 3 days and not think about baseball, that’s if they even know where there home is. Play Pittsburgh –1½ +1.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
NY Mets +1.00 over FLORIDA
Shame on us for missing the Mets last night, however, we’re not about to make that same mistake tonight. Playing hot versus cold is never bad strategy, regardless of who’s pitching and in that department we’re certainly not going with the worst of it. Tom Glavine has been his old self this year and comes into this one with a 6-3 road record and a 2.61 ERA. His ERA on the year is an impressive 2.49. Glavine has allowed just 7 bombs in 122 innings. The Mets have won seven of their last nine to move a season high three games above .500. The defending world champion Marlins have gone the other way, dropping seven of nine to slip back to .500 for the first time since being 1-1. Fish have scored more then 3 times just twice over their past 8 games. Brad Penny is 1-8 lifetime versus the Mets with a 6.75 ERA and will face the best hitting Mets line-up that he’s seen in some time. Not a single argument can me made to go against the Mets here. Play NY Mets +1.00 (Risking 1.6 units).
Arizona +1.30 over SAN FRANCISCO
Not about to pass up a tag against Brett Tomko who is among the most hittable pitchers the game has to offer. Whenever Tomko takes the hill his chances of losing are far greater then winning and we’re absolutely going with the superior hurler here. Brandon Webb’s 3-8 record is one of the more misleading in the league, It’s certainly not a reflection of how good he’s been. For instance, Eric Milton and his 11-2 record has a much worse ERA then Webb. Put Webb on the Phillies and he might be 13-0. Webb hasn’t allowed more then 3 runs, earned or otherwise, over his past 7 starts and hasn’t allowed a single homer in 6 out of those 7. Webb's sinker is so good that hitters have trouble with it when they know it's coming. He throws the pitch 88-91 MPH with live, late action that makes it difficult for hitters to elevate the ball. Although Webb throws his sinkers 70 percent of the time or more, he does not use a four-seam fastball. he also has two other above-average pitches from his over-the-top delivery: a straight changeup he will throw to lefthanded and righthanded hitters, and a curve that he’ll throw anytime in the count. The opposition has hit just .235 against him all year and just .158 against him over his past 4 starts. Ya think the Diamondbacks have a shot here? Can you say value? We can. Play Arizona +1.30 (Risking 1.6 units).
Anaheim –1½ +1.40 over TORONTO
Kelvim Escobar is a front line starter and in fact, has been the Angels most consistent starter all year. His 4 wins in 16 starts may not suggest so, however, the Angels have averaged just one run of support in his 5 losses. Over his last 6 starts, they’ve scored a total of 11 runs. Expect a little extra motivation right across the board here. Escobar will face his former employers for the first time and wants this one badly. His time as a Blue Jay was unpleasant because all Escobar wanted to do was start games but the Blue Jays tried unsuccessfully to make him into a closer. They also used him as a long reliever, middle reliever and a starter but Escobar wasn’t happy. His team-mates are fully aware of his time spent here and their also aware that they haven’t given him much support. He has nasty stuff and when he brings it, he’s one of the best in the game. Angels are healthy and with 7 of the 9 players in the batting order hitting .290 or better (5 of them are over .300) run support should not be an issue today considering the Angels know how badly Escobar wants this one. Play Anaheim –1½ +1.40 (Risking 1.6 units).
