1-3, -2.46 units Friday. Embarrassing for me to take Boston after watching them look fairly feeble in Seattle. Embarrassing for them that Nuno had the game of his career. Nuno looked good too, he wasn't lucky. So here's a reversal on Friday's stupid Red Sox bet:
NYY -1 (-107) 4 units
NYY ML -149. One unit. I just can't imagine the Red Sox getting to Tanaka. Tanaka is such a competitor and loves the big stage. He had one good outing vs. the Sox, and I expect this one could be better. The Red Sox are 2-6 vs. a weaker Yankee team this year. And let's really look at Boston's past few weeks. They lose 3 out of 4 in Oakland, 2 out of 3 in Seattle, and in none of the games did they blast out with the bats. A good outing vs. Iwakuma, who is off his game- and a good game vs. Milone, who is an average pitcher. They swept Minnesota 3 in Fenway, but hit terribly, and before that lost two 3-2 games vs. Cleveland. They did batter Masterson, who has been awful this year. And before that, looked bad losing to Baltimore(scoring about 1 run the whole series), Detroit and so on. They have looked awful vs. good pitching, even mediocre pitching…. and Tanaka is great pitching. I could go up and down their lineup and show why, but I don't have the time. All I can say is that it's not a blip in the season. If not for their good pitching, they would be seriously in Tampa territory.
I know the Yankees have a mediocre infield defense, but their outfield defense is very good, and fast.
Lester has been solid this year, but the Yankees have seen him many, many times, and there will be no surprises. If Lester is getting his slider well positioned, this could be a low scoring game. But Lester has lost a little velocity, and he is just not a dominant pitcher like Tanaka. The Yankees also hit left-handed pitching much better than RHP, and hit better at home. They have Boston's number, are 2 games out of 1st, and win with weaker pitching than Boston's. I think this -1 number is very generous.
NYY -1 (-107) 4 units
NYY ML -149. One unit. I just can't imagine the Red Sox getting to Tanaka. Tanaka is such a competitor and loves the big stage. He had one good outing vs. the Sox, and I expect this one could be better. The Red Sox are 2-6 vs. a weaker Yankee team this year. And let's really look at Boston's past few weeks. They lose 3 out of 4 in Oakland, 2 out of 3 in Seattle, and in none of the games did they blast out with the bats. A good outing vs. Iwakuma, who is off his game- and a good game vs. Milone, who is an average pitcher. They swept Minnesota 3 in Fenway, but hit terribly, and before that lost two 3-2 games vs. Cleveland. They did batter Masterson, who has been awful this year. And before that, looked bad losing to Baltimore(scoring about 1 run the whole series), Detroit and so on. They have looked awful vs. good pitching, even mediocre pitching…. and Tanaka is great pitching. I could go up and down their lineup and show why, but I don't have the time. All I can say is that it's not a blip in the season. If not for their good pitching, they would be seriously in Tampa territory.
I know the Yankees have a mediocre infield defense, but their outfield defense is very good, and fast.
Lester has been solid this year, but the Yankees have seen him many, many times, and there will be no surprises. If Lester is getting his slider well positioned, this could be a low scoring game. But Lester has lost a little velocity, and he is just not a dominant pitcher like Tanaka. The Yankees also hit left-handed pitching much better than RHP, and hit better at home. They have Boston's number, are 2 games out of 1st, and win with weaker pitching than Boston's. I think this -1 number is very generous.
