Thanks for the discussion everyone. Not sure what the Pirates line is now, but with an overall better starter and much better bullpen, I like the +112. Pirates are also hitting much better in the past 2 weeks. As for Burnett's last outing in St. Louis, maybe he would be scarred from it if he was a Nervous Nellie or a young kid, but Burnett is neither. He is one of the leaders in their clubhouse. Besides it was a year ago.
I'm a glutton for punishment but here goes:
Boston/ Houston- over 5 (First 5) -120. One unit. Fenway does something awful to young pitchers who have never pitched there. Peacock is looking a little worse in last 2 starts, and he's got 2 starts against weak hitting Seattle and 2 vs. so-so hitting Oakland. Boston hits RHP well, and Peacock has given up 6 HRs in 18 IPs in pitcher's parks vs. poor hitters. Fenway also doers something awful to LHP, which is why Doubront's stats at Fenway are much worse than on the road the past 2-3 years. With the Green Monster looking so close, it makes a pitcher nibble a lot, which Doubront does, and walk batters, which Doubront does- 9 walks in 16 IPs. Doubront pretty much throws everything at a similar speeds and though his fastball is mid-90s, it is nothing special in movement. The Astros have also LHP very well this year, at a .274 BAA with a .773 slugging pct. Both teams have some power hitters, and some spotty middle relief.
Boston/ Houston- over 5 (First 5) -120. One unit. Fenway does something awful to young pitchers who have never pitched there. Peacock is looking a little worse in last 2 starts, and he's got 2 starts against weak hitting Seattle and 2 vs. so-so hitting Oakland. Boston hits RHP well, and Peacock has given up 6 HRs in 18 IPs in pitcher's parks vs. poor hitters. Fenway also doers something awful to LHP, which is why Doubront's stats at Fenway are much worse than on the road the past 2-3 years. With the Green Monster looking so close, it makes a pitcher nibble a lot, which Doubront does, and walk batters, which Doubront does- 9 walks in 16 IPs. Doubront pretty much throws everything at a similar speeds and though his fastball is mid-90s, it is nothing special in movement. The Astros have also LHP very well this year, at a .274 BAA with a .773 slugging pct. Both teams have some power hitters, and some spotty middle relief.
